Predictions are useless but fun, like this upcoming Bulls season

All analysis leads to pessimism

Last year, after being blown out in the only game that mattered in the final couple months of the year, Arturas Karnisovas - in the face of common sense - put forth a victory lap tone. The smarmy loser that occupies the lead decision-making seat for one of the glamor franchises in the league even grinned when telling a specific beat reporter that they beat their projected win total.

That prediction last year - which was the consensus including Vegas and this here blog - was a truly dismal sub-30 win total. If you forgot, and no shame in that being due to lack of interest, this was how they managed to comfortably beat it and (somehow) lock in a contract extension for everyone involved:

1. Very hot shooting starts from Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine

2. Trading for their own protected first round pick midseason, removing any incentive to throttle back a push for regular season wins

3. Very hot shooting to close the season from Josh Giddey and Coby White, including lucky 4th quarter and clutch makes combined with misses from opponents

4. Very easy schedule in Mickey Mouse March with nearly every opponent resting or tanking

Over the offseason the Over/Under odds put the Bulls quite low, again, at around 32 victories. I’ve seen reaction from respected (plus not-so-respected) analysts that looks to be some kind of reticence to believe in that projection system and instead believe in the predictive power of the much less sophisticated model of “the Bulls always have 39 wins”.

In the past few days as we get closer to the season, I’ve seen it counter-balanced by renewed pessimism.

Unsurprisingly to most, I am leaning this way. I was wrong last year due to the listed 4 factors above, but I don’t think it’s logical to assume it’ll happen again:

1. LaVine is gone, and Vucevic had a career year out of nowhere. This season for the Bulls will be a referendum on the suck-vortex that is Zach LaVine’s career: does it not even matter if he shoots well, he was bringing down the rest of the team by his mere presence?

2. This is the biggest case for ‘optimism’ - the Bulls will win more games simply because they won’t be incentivized to lose them. Sad state of the world’s greatest basketball league, even in the by-far-lesser conference, but that’s a truism.

3. Calling Giddey and White’s improved post-AllStarBreak play ‘lucky’ is selling both short, they were doing potentially sustainable things that are good indicators for career growth. But in terms of getting wins, it was the luck that put them over the top.

4. This will always be the case. Perhaps a bit tougher this season with their fast-paced style no longer being a surprise, though.

The optimistic takes were all made before news broke this week that Coby White is missing the first couple weeks of the season, and the ambiguity of diagnosis¹ suggests it may be a significantly longer absence. I don’t believe that would sway a predictive model significantly, but it does serve as a reminder that injuries happen, and White was special on this roster by not being replacement-level.

And maybe we should take from the Bulls own words to anticipate a dismal record this year. We know they want to be ‘competitive’, but they also did not want to put any expectations out there, even though literally nobody of significance cares if the team in the 3rd biggest media market meets these goals or not.

I do think they also have a goal to be entertaining, to try and put out a dinner theater standard to fill the arena. And that, combined with lack of other avenues, means even further leaning into a fast-paced offense. It’s also reason Matas Buzelis may be featured more this season, unequivocally a good thing.

But, while fast, their offense won’t actually be good. And their defense will be abysmal. So I predict the Bulls will go 31-51.

The crazy thing is it may still mean making the dogcrap East play-in tournament? Let’s quickly count the seeds:

Teams definitely worse (2): Nets, Wizards

Teams definitely better (5): Cavs, Magic, Knicks, Pistons, Hawks

Teams roughly similar (2): Raptors, Hornets

Teams that are likely better but could fall way behind due to injury and ‘strategic losing’ (5): Celtics, Bucks, Pacers, Sixers, Heat

Let’s make a nonsensical guess that the Bulls will be better than half of the similar teams, and 3 of 5 teetering teams totally topple. That would put them at...the 9 seed again!

So, yeah…it’s written in stone after all. As is management’s victory lap after parsing for any meager achievement. But in this scenario, at least, they won’t be able to crow about the win total besting the haters’.

1. I don’t think it’s fair to say the Bulls bungled this. They didn’t want to press Coby in preseason because the games don’t count, and he was looking to be on track only to have the injury flare up after a practice. It is fair to laugh at Billy Donovan saying it wasn’t a setback.