In addition to watching the Bulls this year, there are some other teams to keep an eye on.
Portland- if the Blazers can somehow make the playoffs this year, we get their 1st round pick. We play them twice, November 19th and February 26th, so we can help or hurt their chances.
Houston- Tari Easton is one of 12 RFAs that will be on the market in June. He is a two-way power forward in the Rockets rotation that might be too expensive for the team to keep.
Lakers- Austin Reaves will be a UFA. His situation is the same as Coby's, the team can only offer as high as 4 years, $89 million and that's not nearly enough. Bulls could really use an accomplished offensive star like Reaves. (Also, LeBron and Bronny will be FAs!)
OKC - Hartenstein will be a UFA, and maybe too expensive for the Thunder to keep. Their 3rd/4th center, Ousmane Dieng, will be an RFA.
Phoenix- Will Mark Williams be healthy? Will Maluach show he can be a starting NBA center? If so, the Suns could be ready to move on from Williams, also an RFA in the summer.
Detroit- The Pistons will have both Jalen Duren and Jaden Ivy as RFAs. It would take a big offer to pull him away from Detroit but Bulls should make one to at least screw with them.
Other possible future Bulls, although I am not advocating watching their games: Kessler, Jazz; Mathurin, Pacers; Grimes, 76ers; Cam Thomas, Brooklyn.
Admittedly I haven't watched Eason much, but I have watched the Rockets-Thunder game tonight and he's looked terrible. Right up AK's alley! ;)
Isn't Reaves basically just a white version of Coby White? He's a talented scorer and a decent point guard but not a very good defender. Not sure he'd fit next to Giddey all that well.
Hartenstein isn't a free agent after this season. He has a team option and I don't really see OKC not picking that up unless they can come to some sort of agreement with Hartenstein that's longer term at a lower salary. Regardless, I don't expect Hartenstein to be on the market this coming offseason.
I'd be fine with extending an offer to Kessler and Duren next summer for sure. Not sure I see either of their teams letting them go, but it can't hurt to at least extend an offer. Williams would be mildly interesting too if he can manage to stay healthy.
OKCs cap situation is really interesting. They have 9 players committed already with guaranteed salaries totaling about $180 million. The tax line is supposed to be about $201M so the first apron should be about $210M. OKC has team options on Hartenstein for $28M, Dort for $18M, Wallace for $7M and Topic for $5M. They also have 3 first round picks, which will be about $5M each to sign.
Trying to figure out what they are going to do is a puzzle. I doubt they want to go over the first apron. I think Dort has to be gone. Most people think Hartenstein will be gone too. But they could instead dump one or two of their guaranteed contracts to make room.
I have a feeling Hartenstein ends up being jettisoned. And maybe Dort agrees to take a discount. Wouldn't be mad at Isaiah as the Bulls' next center (will be 28 next year). Though the Duren mystery box would be more fun.
I've seen enough that I don't want to pay any of those guys (Eason, Reaves, Williams, Duren, Ivey, etc) the money I think it will take to get them.
Basically, they're going to want to be paid like a star or at least a really high level starter and I don't think any of them are more than middle of the road starters.
It's a terribly inefficient use of salary, which is death to a team that's constantly looking at the bottom line.
Chalks at 34-48 to me. The early schedule is tough. They'll be 11-20 by New Years. I buy all your top 5 except the Hawks - once Tingus Pingus goes down, they're back to a bunch of guys watching Trae Young cook. I always go low on Toronto and Philly. I suspect the Heat and Bucks have a 42-win floor, but I could see the Bulls anywhere from sixth seed to ninth.
I put my season predictions on the previous post/thread, so here I'll ask a question instead. What are the top and bottom thresholds for a record that would actually seem meaningful?
It's a weird question to ask, because sometimes "meaning" can be arbitrary or enigmatic -- like how 39-43 was an extremely meaningful record for an NBA team last season, but its true significance was based on the flip of a coin.
But what I mean by the question is this: what's a Bulls record that'll be poor enough to force significant change (AKME and Billy get put on the hot seat or fired, AKME blows up the roster, Bulls get a franchise-altering lottery pick, or all of those things)?
And on the flipside, what's a record that'll be strong enough to change the perception of this team and its potential trajectory (like, oh, maybe we do have a "core" that we can build around to seek a championship)?
As I consider it, I'm not sure if there's a top or bottom number that'll do anything for me. (And I'm considering almost anything with any remote possibility -- they're not going to win 5 games or 65.) But would 20 wins move the needle on the bottom end? Or would 50 on the top end? I don't really know.
I’m normally a process over results guy, but if they stink and still don’t get a Top 3 pick (currently the number of “franchise players” in this draft, which means very little right now), it will still be bad - and not bad enough to get rid of AKME.*
Similarly, sure, 50 wins would be great, but I don’t see a way in Heck they get to it. OTOH, if they get to 45, it’s going to be hard for them not to be a Top 6 team in the East, but if they win 45 and finish 7th and fall out of the playoffs, there’s no way that’s successful to me.
Usually, I’m like: fine, tank, and get the best draft pick you can, regardless if it works, or, win a bunch of games and let the results come as they may. But this year, not really. They have lost all credibility, and only something literally good coming out of the season matters. Frankly, because I won’t believe their process was actually to do one of those two things.
*interestingly, 2 of 3 players the same positions as two of the Bulls best “young” players in Giddey an Buzelis, but Dybantsa would be amazing
I think the lower line of significance is MAYBE they consider firing AKME if they win less than 30 games and don't have any injuries to plausibly blame it on.
I like 45 as the upper line, in that if they win 45 or more it'd be like the two construction workers in Major League after they've won some games. "You know, these guys aren't so f*ckin' bad!"
Yeah I think (as you noted) that context is important: my initial question is overly results-oriented (on purpose).
Like if 7 guys tear their ACLs and the team can't even win 15, that's different than the "team as constructed" looking terrible and winning 30. Similarly, if there's a rash of even more new injuries across the East, and the Bulls beat up on depleted teams to get to 45, it'd feel different than seeing us look competitive against strong and motivated opponents.
But in a vacuum, to answer my own question I think it'll take closer to 50 wins to get me to that Major League quote. And probably below 25 on the low end before there's even a SLIGHT chance of AK getting canned. He's somehow convinced management that the last 4 seasons have been successful, so he'll get a Mulligan. And the fan base (most of whom can't get the games on TV) is too apathetic to rally around "fire AKME" billboards and hashtags.
I just don’t see a team jumping the Bulls for a play-in spot.
The two teams I’ve heard arguments for are the Sixers and Raptors, but that requires either Embiid and George staying relatively healthy or Brandon Ingram being both healthy and a winning-ish player.
I will be checking boxscores when I'm bored enough to wonder if the Bulls played a game tonight/last night. If those boxscores include good lines from Matas and/or Essengue, then I'll watch the YT complete player highlights from that game.
Really can't imagine a world in which this team warrants any more than that. Can't believe Vooch is still on this team. I think, given the extensions, that there's nothing AK can do short of scandal to get fired this year. So we're back to hoping for draft lottery luck so good that even AK's incompetence cannot stop our pick from being a star.
Detroit lost 500 made 3s from last years team. 2 of the top 5 scorers in Hardaway and Beasley. They could improve and they have a player that's trying to become a superstar, but they might have trouble scoring, especially when Cunningham is not on the floor.
Arturas Karnisovas was on the radio today, extremely rare to see him speak outside of the custom points of the NBA calendar. https://youtu.be/WEe7p2QppvE
He didn't really say anything of interest, but also didn't say anything mind-numbingly stupid* so that's a technical improvement.
I found a suspicious emphasis on preseason, and Isaac Okoro, but even then he was noncommittal like he is with anything. Similar to media day where he wants to make the playoffs but won't say it's a goal, just 'growth'.
Mentioned the specialness of 'home court' again, and how much he cares. Not enough to work hard to improve the team, but to get really mad when they lose.
Also more or less confirmed his contract extension and said it was deserved because of the 'synergy' from ownership on down. But to be fair did say there needs to be successful results for that synergy to actually mean anything.
*punted on the question of turning down New Orleans draft day pick offer, pretended (or not...) he didn't know what was offered.
Way too early small sample size pace discussion. The top NBA pace last season was Memphis at 103.3 (Bulls 2nd at 102.8). The Bulls played last night at 103.4, which after 1 game is 13th in the league. Bulls might not be unique this season in pace. (But its 1 game, etc, etc)
Late to the game because laziness, but I ran some numbers and was surprised about how not terrible they were. My guess is about 37 games, which puts them right where the Reinsdors want.
It's the kind of roster that works in the regular season and fails in the playoffs, of course, but a creative GM could turn depth and salary cap space into something. We can only dream:)
In addition to watching the Bulls this year, there are some other teams to keep an eye on.
Portland- if the Blazers can somehow make the playoffs this year, we get their 1st round pick. We play them twice, November 19th and February 26th, so we can help or hurt their chances.
Houston- Tari Easton is one of 12 RFAs that will be on the market in June. He is a two-way power forward in the Rockets rotation that might be too expensive for the team to keep.
Lakers- Austin Reaves will be a UFA. His situation is the same as Coby's, the team can only offer as high as 4 years, $89 million and that's not nearly enough. Bulls could really use an accomplished offensive star like Reaves. (Also, LeBron and Bronny will be FAs!)
OKC - Hartenstein will be a UFA, and maybe too expensive for the Thunder to keep. Their 3rd/4th center, Ousmane Dieng, will be an RFA.
Phoenix- Will Mark Williams be healthy? Will Maluach show he can be a starting NBA center? If so, the Suns could be ready to move on from Williams, also an RFA in the summer.
Detroit- The Pistons will have both Jalen Duren and Jaden Ivy as RFAs. It would take a big offer to pull him away from Detroit but Bulls should make one to at least screw with them.
Other possible future Bulls, although I am not advocating watching their games: Kessler, Jazz; Mathurin, Pacers; Grimes, 76ers; Cam Thomas, Brooklyn.
Admittedly I haven't watched Eason much, but I have watched the Rockets-Thunder game tonight and he's looked terrible. Right up AK's alley! ;)
Isn't Reaves basically just a white version of Coby White? He's a talented scorer and a decent point guard but not a very good defender. Not sure he'd fit next to Giddey all that well.
Hartenstein isn't a free agent after this season. He has a team option and I don't really see OKC not picking that up unless they can come to some sort of agreement with Hartenstein that's longer term at a lower salary. Regardless, I don't expect Hartenstein to be on the market this coming offseason.
I'd be fine with extending an offer to Kessler and Duren next summer for sure. Not sure I see either of their teams letting them go, but it can't hurt to at least extend an offer. Williams would be mildly interesting too if he can manage to stay healthy.
OKCs cap situation is really interesting. They have 9 players committed already with guaranteed salaries totaling about $180 million. The tax line is supposed to be about $201M so the first apron should be about $210M. OKC has team options on Hartenstein for $28M, Dort for $18M, Wallace for $7M and Topic for $5M. They also have 3 first round picks, which will be about $5M each to sign.
Trying to figure out what they are going to do is a puzzle. I doubt they want to go over the first apron. I think Dort has to be gone. Most people think Hartenstein will be gone too. But they could instead dump one or two of their guaranteed contracts to make room.
Yeah, I guess we'll see. Something tells me Presti will figure it out though haha
he will dump some young players with experience to the Bulls for their firsts
I have a feeling Hartenstein ends up being jettisoned. And maybe Dort agrees to take a discount. Wouldn't be mad at Isaiah as the Bulls' next center (will be 28 next year). Though the Duren mystery box would be more fun.
Eason was terrible. Houston would be better off with Patrick Williams being able to stretch the floor.
Yep, did not have a good game. He turned down a 4/$100m extension too, according to Windhorst.
I've seen enough that I don't want to pay any of those guys (Eason, Reaves, Williams, Duren, Ivey, etc) the money I think it will take to get them.
Basically, they're going to want to be paid like a star or at least a really high level starter and I don't think any of them are more than middle of the road starters.
It's a terribly inefficient use of salary, which is death to a team that's constantly looking at the bottom line.
Chalks at 34-48 to me. The early schedule is tough. They'll be 11-20 by New Years. I buy all your top 5 except the Hawks - once Tingus Pingus goes down, they're back to a bunch of guys watching Trae Young cook. I always go low on Toronto and Philly. I suspect the Heat and Bucks have a 42-win floor, but I could see the Bulls anywhere from sixth seed to ninth.
you're probably right re: The Hawks, they perennially disappoint
I put my season predictions on the previous post/thread, so here I'll ask a question instead. What are the top and bottom thresholds for a record that would actually seem meaningful?
It's a weird question to ask, because sometimes "meaning" can be arbitrary or enigmatic -- like how 39-43 was an extremely meaningful record for an NBA team last season, but its true significance was based on the flip of a coin.
But what I mean by the question is this: what's a Bulls record that'll be poor enough to force significant change (AKME and Billy get put on the hot seat or fired, AKME blows up the roster, Bulls get a franchise-altering lottery pick, or all of those things)?
And on the flipside, what's a record that'll be strong enough to change the perception of this team and its potential trajectory (like, oh, maybe we do have a "core" that we can build around to seek a championship)?
As I consider it, I'm not sure if there's a top or bottom number that'll do anything for me. (And I'm considering almost anything with any remote possibility -- they're not going to win 5 games or 65.) But would 20 wins move the needle on the bottom end? Or would 50 on the top end? I don't really know.
I’m normally a process over results guy, but if they stink and still don’t get a Top 3 pick (currently the number of “franchise players” in this draft, which means very little right now), it will still be bad - and not bad enough to get rid of AKME.*
Similarly, sure, 50 wins would be great, but I don’t see a way in Heck they get to it. OTOH, if they get to 45, it’s going to be hard for them not to be a Top 6 team in the East, but if they win 45 and finish 7th and fall out of the playoffs, there’s no way that’s successful to me.
Usually, I’m like: fine, tank, and get the best draft pick you can, regardless if it works, or, win a bunch of games and let the results come as they may. But this year, not really. They have lost all credibility, and only something literally good coming out of the season matters. Frankly, because I won’t believe their process was actually to do one of those two things.
*interestingly, 2 of 3 players the same positions as two of the Bulls best “young” players in Giddey an Buzelis, but Dybantsa would be amazing
I think the lower line of significance is MAYBE they consider firing AKME if they win less than 30 games and don't have any injuries to plausibly blame it on.
I like 45 as the upper line, in that if they win 45 or more it'd be like the two construction workers in Major League after they've won some games. "You know, these guys aren't so f*ckin' bad!"
Yeah I think (as you noted) that context is important: my initial question is overly results-oriented (on purpose).
Like if 7 guys tear their ACLs and the team can't even win 15, that's different than the "team as constructed" looking terrible and winning 30. Similarly, if there's a rash of even more new injuries across the East, and the Bulls beat up on depleted teams to get to 45, it'd feel different than seeing us look competitive against strong and motivated opponents.
But in a vacuum, to answer my own question I think it'll take closer to 50 wins to get me to that Major League quote. And probably below 25 on the low end before there's even a SLIGHT chance of AK getting canned. He's somehow convinced management that the last 4 seasons have been successful, so he'll get a Mulligan. And the fan base (most of whom can't get the games on TV) is too apathetic to rally around "fire AKME" billboards and hashtags.
it's trending, I think. Maybe due to Coby injury?
Saw today all of Mike Prada, Nate Duncan, and Danny Leroux predicting the Bulls not even making the play-in.
I just don’t see a team jumping the Bulls for a play-in spot.
The two teams I’ve heard arguments for are the Sixers and Raptors, but that requires either Embiid and George staying relatively healthy or Brandon Ingram being both healthy and a winning-ish player.
the Bulls don't have winning-ish players!
Let’s view it as “I wouldn’t say any of the Raptors vets are better at winning games than the Bulls vets.”
The other critical factor is that the Sixers and Raptors have shown that they’re ok with having a lost season, but AK has not.
It feels like half the battle for getting the 9 or 10 seed in the East is actually wanting it.
I will be checking boxscores when I'm bored enough to wonder if the Bulls played a game tonight/last night. If those boxscores include good lines from Matas and/or Essengue, then I'll watch the YT complete player highlights from that game.
Really can't imagine a world in which this team warrants any more than that. Can't believe Vooch is still on this team. I think, given the extensions, that there's nothing AK can do short of scandal to get fired this year. So we're back to hoping for draft lottery luck so good that even AK's incompetence cannot stop our pick from being a star.
Solid situation. FJR.
Detroit lost 500 made 3s from last years team. 2 of the top 5 scorers in Hardaway and Beasley. They could improve and they have a player that's trying to become a superstar, but they might have trouble scoring, especially when Cunningham is not on the floor.
Maybe our defense will look good then. FYI- We're only minus 485 with Coby out.
Arturas Karnisovas was on the radio today, extremely rare to see him speak outside of the custom points of the NBA calendar. https://youtu.be/WEe7p2QppvE
He didn't really say anything of interest, but also didn't say anything mind-numbingly stupid* so that's a technical improvement.
I found a suspicious emphasis on preseason, and Isaac Okoro, but even then he was noncommittal like he is with anything. Similar to media day where he wants to make the playoffs but won't say it's a goal, just 'growth'.
Mentioned the specialness of 'home court' again, and how much he cares. Not enough to work hard to improve the team, but to get really mad when they lose.
Also more or less confirmed his contract extension and said it was deserved because of the 'synergy' from ownership on down. But to be fair did say there needs to be successful results for that synergy to actually mean anything.
*punted on the question of turning down New Orleans draft day pick offer, pretended (or not...) he didn't know what was offered.
Saying he didn't know makes him sound like a clown
Yep. There was no follow-up to pin down if he was lying or stupid there
first (only?) game thread is UP: https://open.substack.com/chat/posts/aeeb532d-0d15-471d-9ae1-e02b33fd4056
LaVine had a perfect Zach LaVine game last night. 30 points, 1 - 6 in the 4th quarter, Kings lose the lead down the stretch.
The highlight of that game was the Brooks vs Derozan face off. Those two don't like each other.
Way too early small sample size pace discussion. The top NBA pace last season was Memphis at 103.3 (Bulls 2nd at 102.8). The Bulls played last night at 103.4, which after 1 game is 13th in the league. Bulls might not be unique this season in pace. (But its 1 game, etc, etc)
Late to the game because laziness, but I ran some numbers and was surprised about how not terrible they were. My guess is about 37 games, which puts them right where the Reinsdors want.
It's the kind of roster that works in the regular season and fails in the playoffs, of course, but a creative GM could turn depth and salary cap space into something. We can only dream:)