In addition to watching the Bulls this year, there are some other teams to keep an eye on.
Portland- if the Blazers can somehow make the playoffs this year, we get their 1st round pick. We play them twice, November 19th and February 26th, so we can help or hurt their chances.
Houston- Tari Easton is one of 12 RFAs that will be on the market in June. He is a two-way power forward in the Rockets rotation that might be too expensive for the team to keep.
Lakers- Austin Reaves will be a UFA. His situation is the same as Coby's, the team can only offer as high as 4 years, $89 million and that's not nearly enough. Bulls could really use an accomplished offensive star like Reaves. (Also, LeBron and Bronny will be FAs!)
OKC - Hartenstein will be a UFA, and maybe too expensive for the Thunder to keep. Their 3rd/4th center, Ousmane Dieng, will be an RFA.
Phoenix- Will Mark Williams be healthy? Will Maluach show he can be a starting NBA center? If so, the Suns could be ready to move on from Williams, also an RFA in the summer.
Detroit- The Pistons will have both Jalen Duren and Jaden Ivy as RFAs. It would take a big offer to pull him away from Detroit but Bulls should make one to at least screw with them.
Other possible future Bulls, although I am not advocating watching their games: Kessler, Jazz; Mathurin, Pacers; Grimes, 76ers; Cam Thomas, Brooklyn.
Admittedly I haven't watched Eason much, but I have watched the Rockets-Thunder game tonight and he's looked terrible. Right up AK's alley! ;)
Isn't Reaves basically just a white version of Coby White? He's a talented scorer and a decent point guard but not a very good defender. Not sure he'd fit next to Giddey all that well.
Hartenstein isn't a free agent after this season. He has a team option and I don't really see OKC not picking that up unless they can come to some sort of agreement with Hartenstein that's longer term at a lower salary. Regardless, I don't expect Hartenstein to be on the market this coming offseason.
I'd be fine with extending an offer to Kessler and Duren next summer for sure. Not sure I see either of their teams letting them go, but it can't hurt to at least extend an offer. Williams would be mildly interesting too if he can manage to stay healthy.
OKCs cap situation is really interesting. They have 9 players committed already with guaranteed salaries totaling about $180 million. The tax line is supposed to be about $201M so the first apron should be about $210M. OKC has team options on Hartenstein for $28M, Dort for $18M, Wallace for $7M and Topic for $5M. They also have 3 first round picks, which will be about $5M each to sign.
Trying to figure out what they are going to do is a puzzle. I doubt they want to go over the first apron. I think Dort has to be gone. Most people think Hartenstein will be gone too. But they could instead dump one or two of their guaranteed contracts to make room.
Chalks at 34-48 to me. The early schedule is tough. They'll be 11-20 by New Years. I buy all your top 5 except the Hawks - once Tingus Pingus goes down, they're back to a bunch of guys watching Trae Young cook. I always go low on Toronto and Philly. I suspect the Heat and Bucks have a 42-win floor, but I could see the Bulls anywhere from sixth seed to ninth.
I put my season predictions on the previous post/thread, so here I'll ask a question instead. What are the top and bottom thresholds for a record that would actually seem meaningful?
It's a weird question to ask, because sometimes "meaning" can be arbitrary or enigmatic -- like how 39-43 was an extremely meaningful record for an NBA team last season, but its true significance was based on the flip of a coin.
But what I mean by the question is this: what's a Bulls record that'll be poor enough to force significant change (AKME and Billy get put on the hot seat or fired, AKME blows up the roster, Bulls get a franchise-altering lottery pick, or all of those things)?
And on the flipside, what's a record that'll be strong enough to change the perception of this team and its potential trajectory (like, oh, maybe we do have a "core" that we can build around to seek a championship)?
As I consider it, I'm not sure if there's a top or bottom number that'll do anything for me. (And I'm considering almost anything with any remote possibility -- they're not going to win 5 games or 65.) But would 20 wins move the needle on the bottom end? Or would 50 on the top end? I don't really know.
I’m normally a process over results guy, but if they stink and still don’t get a Top 3 pick (currently the number of “franchise players” in this draft, which means very little right now), it will still be bad - and not bad enough to get rid of AKME.*
Similarly, sure, 50 wins would be great, but I don’t see a way in Heck they get to it. OTOH, if they get to 45, it’s going to be hard for them not to be a Top 6 team in the East, but if they win 45 and finish 7th and fall out of the playoffs, there’s no way that’s successful to me.
Usually, I’m like: fine, tank, and get the best draft pick you can, regardless if it works, or, win a bunch of games and let the results come as they may. But this year, not really. They have lost all credibility, and only something literally good coming out of the season matters. Frankly, because I won’t believe their process was actually to do one of those two things.
*interestingly, 2 of 3 players the same positions as two of the Bulls best “young” players in Giddey an Buzelis, but Dybantsa would be amazing
I just don’t see a team jumping the Bulls for a play-in spot.
The two teams I’ve heard arguments for are the Sixers and Raptors, but that requires either Embiid and George staying relatively healthy or Brandon Ingram being both healthy and a winning-ish player.
I will be checking boxscores when I'm bored enough to wonder if the Bulls played a game tonight/last night. If those boxscores include good lines from Matas and/or Essengue, then I'll watch the YT complete player highlights from that game.
Really can't imagine a world in which this team warrants any more than that. Can't believe Vooch is still on this team. I think, given the extensions, that there's nothing AK can do short of scandal to get fired this year. So we're back to hoping for draft lottery luck so good that even AK's incompetence cannot stop our pick from being a star.
In addition to watching the Bulls this year, there are some other teams to keep an eye on.
Portland- if the Blazers can somehow make the playoffs this year, we get their 1st round pick. We play them twice, November 19th and February 26th, so we can help or hurt their chances.
Houston- Tari Easton is one of 12 RFAs that will be on the market in June. He is a two-way power forward in the Rockets rotation that might be too expensive for the team to keep.
Lakers- Austin Reaves will be a UFA. His situation is the same as Coby's, the team can only offer as high as 4 years, $89 million and that's not nearly enough. Bulls could really use an accomplished offensive star like Reaves. (Also, LeBron and Bronny will be FAs!)
OKC - Hartenstein will be a UFA, and maybe too expensive for the Thunder to keep. Their 3rd/4th center, Ousmane Dieng, will be an RFA.
Phoenix- Will Mark Williams be healthy? Will Maluach show he can be a starting NBA center? If so, the Suns could be ready to move on from Williams, also an RFA in the summer.
Detroit- The Pistons will have both Jalen Duren and Jaden Ivy as RFAs. It would take a big offer to pull him away from Detroit but Bulls should make one to at least screw with them.
Other possible future Bulls, although I am not advocating watching their games: Kessler, Jazz; Mathurin, Pacers; Grimes, 76ers; Cam Thomas, Brooklyn.
Admittedly I haven't watched Eason much, but I have watched the Rockets-Thunder game tonight and he's looked terrible. Right up AK's alley! ;)
Isn't Reaves basically just a white version of Coby White? He's a talented scorer and a decent point guard but not a very good defender. Not sure he'd fit next to Giddey all that well.
Hartenstein isn't a free agent after this season. He has a team option and I don't really see OKC not picking that up unless they can come to some sort of agreement with Hartenstein that's longer term at a lower salary. Regardless, I don't expect Hartenstein to be on the market this coming offseason.
I'd be fine with extending an offer to Kessler and Duren next summer for sure. Not sure I see either of their teams letting them go, but it can't hurt to at least extend an offer. Williams would be mildly interesting too if he can manage to stay healthy.
OKCs cap situation is really interesting. They have 9 players committed already with guaranteed salaries totaling about $180 million. The tax line is supposed to be about $201M so the first apron should be about $210M. OKC has team options on Hartenstein for $28M, Dort for $18M, Wallace for $7M and Topic for $5M. They also have 3 first round picks, which will be about $5M each to sign.
Trying to figure out what they are going to do is a puzzle. I doubt they want to go over the first apron. I think Dort has to be gone. Most people think Hartenstein will be gone too. But they could instead dump one or two of their guaranteed contracts to make room.
Chalks at 34-48 to me. The early schedule is tough. They'll be 11-20 by New Years. I buy all your top 5 except the Hawks - once Tingus Pingus goes down, they're back to a bunch of guys watching Trae Young cook. I always go low on Toronto and Philly. I suspect the Heat and Bucks have a 42-win floor, but I could see the Bulls anywhere from sixth seed to ninth.
I put my season predictions on the previous post/thread, so here I'll ask a question instead. What are the top and bottom thresholds for a record that would actually seem meaningful?
It's a weird question to ask, because sometimes "meaning" can be arbitrary or enigmatic -- like how 39-43 was an extremely meaningful record for an NBA team last season, but its true significance was based on the flip of a coin.
But what I mean by the question is this: what's a Bulls record that'll be poor enough to force significant change (AKME and Billy get put on the hot seat or fired, AKME blows up the roster, Bulls get a franchise-altering lottery pick, or all of those things)?
And on the flipside, what's a record that'll be strong enough to change the perception of this team and its potential trajectory (like, oh, maybe we do have a "core" that we can build around to seek a championship)?
As I consider it, I'm not sure if there's a top or bottom number that'll do anything for me. (And I'm considering almost anything with any remote possibility -- they're not going to win 5 games or 65.) But would 20 wins move the needle on the bottom end? Or would 50 on the top end? I don't really know.
I’m normally a process over results guy, but if they stink and still don’t get a Top 3 pick (currently the number of “franchise players” in this draft, which means very little right now), it will still be bad - and not bad enough to get rid of AKME.*
Similarly, sure, 50 wins would be great, but I don’t see a way in Heck they get to it. OTOH, if they get to 45, it’s going to be hard for them not to be a Top 6 team in the East, but if they win 45 and finish 7th and fall out of the playoffs, there’s no way that’s successful to me.
Usually, I’m like: fine, tank, and get the best draft pick you can, regardless if it works, or, win a bunch of games and let the results come as they may. But this year, not really. They have lost all credibility, and only something literally good coming out of the season matters. Frankly, because I won’t believe their process was actually to do one of those two things.
*interestingly, 2 of 3 players the same positions as two of the Bulls best “young” players in Giddey an Buzelis, but Dybantsa would be amazing
it's trending, I think. Maybe due to Coby injury?
Saw today all of Mike Prada, Nate Duncan, and Danny Leroux predicting the Bulls not even making the play-in.
I just don’t see a team jumping the Bulls for a play-in spot.
The two teams I’ve heard arguments for are the Sixers and Raptors, but that requires either Embiid and George staying relatively healthy or Brandon Ingram being both healthy and a winning-ish player.
I will be checking boxscores when I'm bored enough to wonder if the Bulls played a game tonight/last night. If those boxscores include good lines from Matas and/or Essengue, then I'll watch the YT complete player highlights from that game.
Really can't imagine a world in which this team warrants any more than that. Can't believe Vooch is still on this team. I think, given the extensions, that there's nothing AK can do short of scandal to get fired this year. So we're back to hoping for draft lottery luck so good that even AK's incompetence cannot stop our pick from being a star.
Solid situation. FJR.