Patrick Williams has evolved from draft bust to bad contract

the emblem of 'lower your expectations' front office, Williams is not even reaching role player standard this year

I’m not going to do what I get upset over other people doing, which is spend too much time on Patrick Williams.

As the 4th overall pick in 2020, he’s been a bust. He’s always been a bust. Yes, as a young draftee, it meant allowing the possibility (even likelihood) that he’d improve out of that designation, but he hasn’t. Williams has also been hurt a lot in his career, but¹ that’s even worse.

That evaluation and resolution of Williams status was all established before he entered restricted free agency last summer. The Bulls jumped the market and offered Williams a 5 year contract extension at $18M per year. At the time, this was considered (even here) as a ‘fine’ contract for a still-young 4th/5th starter at a scarce position/role².

The new contract didn’t even have a success criteria dependent on Williams improving as a player. He just had to keep doing what he was doing. Maybe (snicker) the absence of DeMar Derozan (chuckle) would allow Pat more on-ball opportunities (LMAO).

Instead, this year he’s not merely “same old Pat”, he’s worse.

This was alarming early in the season when I wrote this 15 games in:

he’s more of a threes-only player than ever (53.4% of his attempts are from distance) and is shooting 35.5% on two-pointers, which includes only 50% at the rim and has inspired a fandom meme of tracking his missed dunks.

And, anecdotally to me, anyway: he looks slow and stationary. Like he’s recovering still from that major foot surgery, either still hurt or at-best still out of shape. Has gotten blown-by when on defense way more often than I remember.

Shortly after that time, Williams missed three weeks to rest that surgically-repaired foot. And since returning…well I was thinking he’s even worse, but in reality his inside make percentage is a bit up, 59.1% in the restricted area the last 13 games versus 50% overall for the season. Though I can’t say for sure the NBA.com tracking is totally accurate as they don’t even credit him for a missed dunk since returning from injury and I know I’ve seen several. It’s likely not counted because he never completely has possession of the ball?

Altogether, it’s still bad. Yes, Williams remains a capable 3-point shooter, but it’s of the stand-still slow-release variety.

Anything inside the arc has been abysmal: looking back now that he’s been back for those 13 games, though making a bit more percentage-wise (up to 40.6% on twos) his volume has gone further in the tank. In last 6 games³ playing 165 minutes of fast-paced BillyBall, Williams has made a total of FIVE two-pointers. Two of those makes were on these no-hopers, where the foul comes because logically a defender wouldn’t think Williams would take this path to the basket.

To sum it up: Pat’s playing like shit. And though slightly better since his rest, not even up to the low standard of “fine role player contract, it’s fine”. He’s not productive, and the numbers may even be obscuring how poor he looks physically.

But also there’s no point in tracking it anymore, certainly no need for game-to-game (let alone quarter-to-quarter) anecdotes of Pat’s “aggressiveness”.

He is what he is, which is an overpaid, sub-standard role player, and there’s nothing really to be done about it. I suppose he could see his role reduced, but the team has a dearth of forwards, at least options that rise to the standard of the organizational mission statement (Pat, unlike the less experienced players, can be trusted by Donovan to play smart defense).

And as he is producing at negative relative value to his contract, Williams is functionally untradeable. Another valuation decision feather in AKME’s cap.

1. despite KC Johnson’s frequent protestations re: Zach LaVine in this regard

2. though like most AKME things even the ‘fine’ transactions left something to be desired (why the fifth year player option?)

3. yes this is cherry-picked segment to make it look worse