Bulls trends to consider if one were to consider 15 games trends-worthy

truly bad but winning games is worst case scenario, but it's still early

As I’ve said many times, NBA schedules are grueling to fans too, and to Bulls fans it’s a death march. After Monday’s win in Detroit, we still have 67 more of these things. Maybe like half of those will be useful in gaining information on the team. All of them will be mined for any positivity by the front office to justify whatever they think they’re doing.

So I cannot cover every game, and also 15 games really isn’t that much in trying to figure out some big picture stuff. So I can’t just not say anything until I think it’s a good sample. Literally, I have a compulsion to say something. But remember, good or bad with the following, it’s subject to change and we don’t have to freak out either way yet:

Vuc is playing (offensively) out of his mind

This was the Nikola Vucevic we were promised. In that, even if he is incredibly efficient on offense he is so bad defensively you’ll still struggle to build a team around him.

But credit through gritted teeth and a blowtorch of pro-Vuc propaganda in every broadcast: he is shooting very well from all parts of the floor. I’d say “unsustainable!” but that’s the theme of this post: it’s too early for trends!

What does this provide anyone besides Vuc and Arturas Karnisovas’s smirk strength? It’s probably a better way to say it that, unlike the former all-star at guard, Vuc’s success doesn’t come at the expense of much. He’s not blocking a young developing big man, he’s not dominating the ball, and he’s not going to screw up a tank.

Could he sustain this to where he’d get positive return in a trade? While there are many teams around the league with injuries in the frontcourt and could plausibly use Vuc as a stopgap, it’s extremely likely he’ll fall off and non-AK decision-makers know this. Plus it’s hard to sell Vuc as a temporary option when he’s signed through next season.

Josh Giddey is unplayable in important game stretches

It’s always easier to aggregate instead of analyze, and thankfully very good writers have done their “why is Josh Giddey” work recently as Donovan has started to pull Giddey in closing minutes of games and didn’t even start in the second half in last Friday’s loss in Cleveland.

• It's time to have the Josh Giddey conversation - Will Gottlieb, CHGO

• Is Josh Giddey the new Cameron Payne? - Stephen Noh, The Sporting News

In short: he’s abysmal defensively, struggles to score, and doesn’t seem to raise the offense when he’s on the court because teams don’t respect his shot. What’s especially worrisome is this cratering +/- of any lineup he’s in is happening while he’s making his three point attempts (36.4% on 4.8att/36min). To us, and opponents, the shot still looks really bad and is likely not going to be fixed over the course of a regular season.

Zach LaVine is back (from hurt, to merely being overpaid and unwanted)

As I keep saying, it is not on LaVine to change his ‘narrative’. The only reputation rehab that matters is if it ups other teams’ offers. And I don’t think playing in half of a pointless season with this odd-fitting roster will change outside opinion.

What LaVine has proven in his start this year is that he wasn’t ruined by that foot surgery. Though I don’t think that was a serious concern from anyone. He still has his three-level scoring ability, works best when creating his own shots, doesn’t offer anything else besides scoring, and can’t be trusted late in games.

Whether that’s worth his contract in this new (Reinsdorf-driven) apron landscape is up to other teams.

I still think there is way more risk to play him as he may get hurt, which reinforces that ‘narrative’. One that is actually true.

Patrick Williams is more broken than breaking out

Not that anyone worth taking seriously believed it, but it’s looking like DeMar DeRozan is acquitted on all charges of holding back Pat Williams’s offensive game.

Fresh off signing a 5 year extension, Williams is not only failing to thrive but regressing: he’s more of a threes-only player than ever (53.4% of his attempts are from distance) and is shooting 35.5% on two-pointers, which includes only 50% at the rim and has inspired a fandom meme of tracking his missed dunks.

And, anecdotally to me, anyway: he looks slow and stationary. Like he’s recovering still from that major foot surgery, either still hurt or at-best still out of shape. Has gotten blown-by when on defense way more often than I remember.

Williams can still contribute by being tall and shooting a few wide-open threes a game, but there’s ever dwindling hope he’ll be much more than that, and now a greater concern that he isn’t even playing like a good role player.

Billy Donovan is not a rebuilding kind of coach

We know Billy Donovan is a veterans’ coach, and even ones he has a frosty relationship with (::cough:: LaVine ::cough::) he’ll try to win them over by relying on them a lot. Vuc is 2nd in minutes and field goal attempts. As mentioned, Giddey will get pulled if it may cost them a win. Matas Buzelis is never gifted any minutes. The rest of the young players are in the rotation over the likes of Jevon Carter and Torrey Craig, but not in featured or consistent roles.

That’s an understandable coaching strategy with merit, but just worth noting that it is a choice. And like all Billy Donovan choices, it’s uncritically praised by management at all times.

Regardless of their decision to use the GLeague at all with Buzelis, the first chance they got they leveraged the minor league bizarrely. They sent Buzelis down to play a full game in the one off day the big club had in 4 nights. So Buzelis wound up playing across both leagues on 4 straight nights. I know he’s young, and he only played two minutes on that fourth night, but that’s a really weird thing to ask any NBA player to do!

The defense is going to keep that pick protected

The Bulls have pretty much no chance in any game where they don’t hit over 40% of their many, many (so many) three point attempts. The Bulls do have some wins (6-9 record), but they’ve been lucky (-6.6 net rating, 25th in the league). Even with a few flukey games and season starts from former fringe All-Stars, they’re 9th in the tank race.

But they will continue to hemorrhage points and lose their share of games. With Giddey at the point of attack (and if not initially, teams will work their way towards him) and Vuc dropping all the way into the stanchion as to avoid physical contact, they will never be good on that end. The other starters are only passable when really engaged, and that’s pretty rare and will only get more rare as this season turns predictably hopeless.

Again, to emphasize: not a trend yet! We’ve yet to see how bad the truly bad teams - of which the Bulls are still projected by me to be among - will be.

Identity established, Home Court Advantage not so much

Yes, they stink. They are playing faster (still tops in pace) and shooting more threes (6th in 3PAr).

But if you recall, the guy in charge of the team had playing style as a goal but also emphasized many times that it was important to him to play well at home. They’re 1-5 in their building and at -12.7 Net Rating the 2nd worst team in the league.

So while it’s 3-D chess to say that only losses and a top pick can save the Bulls, I am playing in a 4th dimension and saying the only true chance starts with firing AKME, and perhaps that is only feasible if they fail at their silly yet craven goal to get people to pay to watch the team.