I must admit, I'm kind of over the "Pat is terrible" talk. Not because it's not true, but because so many fans are using their frustration at Pat to overlook all of the other problems with this team/organization.
With that being said, I'm perfectly happy to see it here because I know Matt isn't using Pat's terribleness to overlook all of the other problems.
Matt, any chance you'd want to spend some time digging through Vooch's stats (I know I wouldn't) to show how truly awful he's been on defense lately. Like I obviously don't have high expectations for him on that end of the floor, but it seems like lately he's just totally lost interest in even pretending to play defense. One would think he'd at least want to give a little effort in hopes it might help him get traded.
Another thing is I wanted to point out was that any lamentation over Pat 'not improving' and reaching his potential as #4 overall didn't go far enough. The contract recalibrated expectations, and if he played like he always has been it'd be sufficient (or close). He's worse, and looks worse, so I don't buy holdover arguments from prior seasons like 'needs more aggression'
And don't think it has been said as much not that "Pat is terrible" but "AKME signed another terrible contract". That has kind of gotten lost with the other untradeable contracts (and Giddey getting one in a few months)
I’m starting to think that AKME are bad at their jobs! If they wanted to resign Pat, that’s fine. Losing a young player that was the fourth pick looks bad. They should have let him test the RFA market. With the new second apron penalties, I doubt that he would have gotten more than 3 years and $15M/year. This has to be one of two or three worst constructed rosters in the league when it comes to talent and what is owed to players.
Is there any indication that he's still injured? He definitely looks like he is slower and more sluggish than prior years. Which is unfortunate since, for a player his age, he should really be entering his peak athletic stage. It's unfortunately another area where he seems to be regressing.
Serious question, has AK given anyone a contract yet that doesn't have a player option on the final year? Every contract I can think of off the top of my head has had one.
Every time I see him I hear Charles Barkley saying "Man, you can't start in the NBA and score 2 points." As meathead as that sounds... you really can't! Especially on this team.
The player he reminds me of is Brandan Wright, a forward out of Carolina taken with a top 10 pick. When he played announcers always noted his talent, which you don't have to do when someone is actually really talented. On the floor he was just another body.
He also struck me more like a Marvin Williams. Both tweener forwards who didn't even start in college but were drafted high based on body composition and potential....neither ever progressed much further than decent rotational player
I think people mistakenly think of guys like this as high ceiling guys, but really they're high floor guys. Good athlete with good size and a shot. Even if he doesn't hit, he's still a 15 year pro.
But really, how often does a guy with an iffy motor and no handle whatsoever hit?
I'll have to see how Pat's numbers coincide with Williams, but the longevity at first is not based on production but having a contact. Like Pat, Marvin got a 5 year extension after his rookie contract. I suppose the next test will be after that's up, Marvin kept getting paid. If Pat plays like this going forward I don't see how he will stay in the league
He doesn't know how and was apparently late learning to play basketball. He is the polar opposite of read and react. Some athletes can find there way he cannot. Worst contract in the league outside megadeals
I am so hard on Giddey because I fear an even bigger Pat-like overpay.
Totally agree. As I said in the last article, I think Giddey is the new Pat. He's technically "better" but he's still a huge negative on the court, and because he has better stats than Pat, I guarantee AK is going to sign him to like $25 million a year or something ridiculous like that.
Another thing of note is we can verify this is a new, player-friendly front office, because the GarPax regime would be dogging Pat in the media constantly, especially after the chairman deigned to give a raise!
It took me a minute to get off PW island....i took a lifeboat off at the beginning of last year. I still held out hope he could be an above average Deng like starter...16/7 type guy with B+ defense. But Pat still has such limited feel for the game, this sounds corny but he is just not a natural basketball player. Seems like something he got pushed into bc he grew so much. He is built like a brickhouse but still has no way to use his body. Never seen someone of his caliber of frame be so crap as finishing, it's insane
His athleticism was way oversold, he has no fluidity at all. No natural feel for what to do during a possession to optimize his time on the floor
As limited as he is on offense, I could forgive it if he were an actual great defender but he is honestly mid on that end as well. He looks like he should be a great defender but his lateral quickness even before injury was already so-so. He can get some steals and blocks purely off wingspan but he is not impactful on that end at all nowadays
I think the Patrick Williams Hotel & Resorts lured people there because his path was (and still is) pretty obvious. Okay, shoot open 3s and defend — that's it, that's all he has to do. Far from being saddled with expectations after being a top 4 pick, there are few expectations that he'll take some kind of giant leap to Kawhi-level anymore. He's paid more than a "solid starter" of the Taurean Prince variety, but not so much that it would cripple a team if he just turned in a consistent 13/6 with good percentages and great defense.
Speaking of Kawhi comparisons, yfBB mentions above that he's chucking more 3s than ever, more than half of his attempts still come from there. That hasn't come at the expense of shots at the rim, or not only. The vaunted mid-range is gone. Josh Giddey currently takes a higher percentage of his shots from the rim to 16 feet and every distance segment therein. What is more insane than that? Giddey also makes more of them, again at every single segment.
Bust is harsh. He's not a star but he's clearly a rotation player. About as 3+D as you can get. At the 4th position you expect much more, but that draft was weak, and there are only 3 players drafted after him that are clear upgrades:
12 Haliburton
21 Maxey
28 McDaniels
What I never liked was the reach on Pat. I don't like drafting players that didn't start in college, it seems like a key indicator of ... something. Good enough for the NBA but being held back by their college coach? It's a clue.
Would this team be better with Okoro (drafted 5)? Not by much if at all, he's also a 5th starter (on a much better team granted). But it's the draft philosophy I don't like. You ignored the clue once, ok you get a midling picking in Pat. You ignore the clue twice, you get a barely hanging on player in Terry.
This article is about the contract though. It's a bad contract maybe, but this team is facing a roster cliff in 2026 and PWill will at least fill out that roster.
I long held the belief that Pat wasn't a bust, and maybe I still do depending on how we're defining what a "bust" is. I was in the same boat where I felt like he was pretty clearly a rotation player. But so far this year, he's taken a clear step back to the point where I think I'd classify him as an end-of-bench guy
If he's able to return to what he was last year before his injury, he'll have a long career in the NBA, mostly just because he fits an archetype that is in high demand.
But what if he doesn't? He seems so much slower this year and I have to imagine that's because of his foot injury. It's not like he's past his physical prime, so it's seems unlikely that's the cause. Is that injury ever going to fully heal? If not, is it going to stay the way it currently is or is it going to slowly get worse? I have no idea.
And it's not likely he's been steadily improving other areas of his game since he got into the league. The only area I can think of that I've noticed a fairly significant improvement is his hands on defense. He seems much better at swiping at the ball this year than he has been in years past, and even then, I wouldn't say he's amazing at it.
If he could just improve his handle and his ability to finish in the paint, he'd pretty much immediately be worth his contract. And on one hand, those seem like things that should be pretty easy to improve upon. But on the other hand, he's now in his fifth season and hasn't improved on them at all. I feel like I don't ever see anyone mention this, but I think his problem with dribbling and finishing in the paint is that he's not very coordinated. I don't think you can teach that, so his dribbling and finishing might always be really bad.
I heard a guru type tried to teach juggling as a way of improving hand-eye coordination to basketball players. He approached the Houston Rockets, who had Hakeem but also Chuck Nevitt, a 7'5" center who was rail thin and never played very much. The guy came in with his gear and Chuck looked at it, picked it up and just started juggling three things simultaneously. Apparently he used to do it for fun in supermaket aisles with tubs of Cool Whip.
it's semantics, and yes the team is graded on a curve because that draft was pretty bad.
but beyond those you mentioned...Bane (30) is a clear upgrade that was likely just an oversight by you
other slight upgrades
Okongwu (6)
Quickley (25)
Pritchard (26)
Toppin (8)
Avdija (9)
I think if the Bulls had any of those guys it'd still be a 'bust' of a pick considering how high the selection is, but more on the player than the team
And we've completely dismissed the weirdo nature of that draft cause after a while those excuses start to sound ridiculous, but if the whole draft is down I think it's fair to look at the weirdo circumstances that each of these players had to deal with. And in retrospect, even more reason to draft older rather than younger in this draft.
The word "clear" is under a lot of stress in "clear upgrades." I have zero opinion on draft revisionism since I can't pay attention to college sports and don't know anything about the players beforehand, but I see quite a lot I would take over him today, if that's the question. It is an interesting draft, though, in the number of guys who have played themselves out of the league or almost done so.
I don't entirely trust Win Shares, BPM or VORP but it's interesting to note that Patrick is ranked around 26th through 29th in every one of them. PER isn't very friendly either, players that seem iffy to me like Isaiah Stewart, Nick Richards and Tre Jones far outrank him. If I had to roll that draft today I would probably place Patrick around #15, and I think that could slide into the 20s by next year.
A top 5 pick needs to at least be a solid, somewhat above average starter. Not a middling replacement player bench guy which is where Pat is at right now.
I hate the word bust and it's overused but he is a bust.
If you took the names off the uniforms you would never guess which one is looking at an extension and which one is unsure of what league he'll be playing in at this time next year.
This is a relevant comment for a discussion about Patrick for that matter too. We're not supposed to judge them by draft position, but they are absolutely charmed to be in the position they're in because of their draft position.
when has he ever used his "athleticism" to a memorable effect. I can think of like 5 times in his whole Bulls career. Athleticism doesnt mean a damn thing without body control and he is honestly pretty uncoordinated for a basketball player. He shoulda been a defensive end tbh haha
I must admit, I'm kind of over the "Pat is terrible" talk. Not because it's not true, but because so many fans are using their frustration at Pat to overlook all of the other problems with this team/organization.
With that being said, I'm perfectly happy to see it here because I know Matt isn't using Pat's terribleness to overlook all of the other problems.
Matt, any chance you'd want to spend some time digging through Vooch's stats (I know I wouldn't) to show how truly awful he's been on defense lately. Like I obviously don't have high expectations for him on that end of the floor, but it seems like lately he's just totally lost interest in even pretending to play defense. One would think he'd at least want to give a little effort in hopes it might help him get traded.
I am also over it, wanted to put it on a post though first.
Now I can just tap the sign: "Pat is terrible"
Another thing is I wanted to point out was that any lamentation over Pat 'not improving' and reaching his potential as #4 overall didn't go far enough. The contract recalibrated expectations, and if he played like he always has been it'd be sufficient (or close). He's worse, and looks worse, so I don't buy holdover arguments from prior seasons like 'needs more aggression'
And don't think it has been said as much not that "Pat is terrible" but "AKME signed another terrible contract". That has kind of gotten lost with the other untradeable contracts (and Giddey getting one in a few months)
I’m starting to think that AKME are bad at their jobs! If they wanted to resign Pat, that’s fine. Losing a young player that was the fourth pick looks bad. They should have let him test the RFA market. With the new second apron penalties, I doubt that he would have gotten more than 3 years and $15M/year. This has to be one of two or three worst constructed rosters in the league when it comes to talent and what is owed to players.
Yes, they should have done what the Raptors did with Okoro.
Is there any indication that he's still injured? He definitely looks like he is slower and more sluggish than prior years. Which is unfortunate since, for a player his age, he should really be entering his peak athletic stage. It's unfortunately another area where he seems to be regressing.
His lateral quickness looks noticeably worse this year. Definitely wondering if that's due to his foot not being fully healed.
There's indication in watching him move. But no acknowledgement from Bulls PR/media
There's always the possibility he's dogging it now that he's got a long-term contract...
I will never get over them giving him a player option in that final year.
Serious question, has AK given anyone a contract yet that doesn't have a player option on the final year? Every contract I can think of off the top of my head has had one.
It's a player friendly organization
Every time I see him I hear Charles Barkley saying "Man, you can't start in the NBA and score 2 points." As meathead as that sounds... you really can't! Especially on this team.
The player he reminds me of is Brandan Wright, a forward out of Carolina taken with a top 10 pick. When he played announcers always noted his talent, which you don't have to do when someone is actually really talented. On the floor he was just another body.
He also struck me more like a Marvin Williams. Both tweener forwards who didn't even start in college but were drafted high based on body composition and potential....neither ever progressed much further than decent rotational player
Yup. This is the guy I think of too.
I think people mistakenly think of guys like this as high ceiling guys, but really they're high floor guys. Good athlete with good size and a shot. Even if he doesn't hit, he's still a 15 year pro.
But really, how often does a guy with an iffy motor and no handle whatsoever hit?
I'll have to see how Pat's numbers coincide with Williams, but the longevity at first is not based on production but having a contact. Like Pat, Marvin got a 5 year extension after his rookie contract. I suppose the next test will be after that's up, Marvin kept getting paid. If Pat plays like this going forward I don't see how he will stay in the league
He doesn't know how and was apparently late learning to play basketball. He is the polar opposite of read and react. Some athletes can find there way he cannot. Worst contract in the league outside megadeals
I am so hard on Giddey because I fear an even bigger Pat-like overpay.
Totally agree. As I said in the last article, I think Giddey is the new Pat. He's technically "better" but he's still a huge negative on the court, and because he has better stats than Pat, I guarantee AK is going to sign him to like $25 million a year or something ridiculous like that.
"yes this is cherry-picked segment to make it look worse
This made me laugh harder than I should have.
I feel every arbitrary group of games should have this disclaimer!
Another thing of note is we can verify this is a new, player-friendly front office, because the GarPax regime would be dogging Pat in the media constantly, especially after the chairman deigned to give a raise!
It took me a minute to get off PW island....i took a lifeboat off at the beginning of last year. I still held out hope he could be an above average Deng like starter...16/7 type guy with B+ defense. But Pat still has such limited feel for the game, this sounds corny but he is just not a natural basketball player. Seems like something he got pushed into bc he grew so much. He is built like a brickhouse but still has no way to use his body. Never seen someone of his caliber of frame be so crap as finishing, it's insane
His athleticism was way oversold, he has no fluidity at all. No natural feel for what to do during a possession to optimize his time on the floor
As limited as he is on offense, I could forgive it if he were an actual great defender but he is honestly mid on that end as well. He looks like he should be a great defender but his lateral quickness even before injury was already so-so. He can get some steals and blocks purely off wingspan but he is not impactful on that end at all nowadays
I think the Patrick Williams Hotel & Resorts lured people there because his path was (and still is) pretty obvious. Okay, shoot open 3s and defend — that's it, that's all he has to do. Far from being saddled with expectations after being a top 4 pick, there are few expectations that he'll take some kind of giant leap to Kawhi-level anymore. He's paid more than a "solid starter" of the Taurean Prince variety, but not so much that it would cripple a team if he just turned in a consistent 13/6 with good percentages and great defense.
Speaking of Kawhi comparisons, yfBB mentions above that he's chucking more 3s than ever, more than half of his attempts still come from there. That hasn't come at the expense of shots at the rim, or not only. The vaunted mid-range is gone. Josh Giddey currently takes a higher percentage of his shots from the rim to 16 feet and every distance segment therein. What is more insane than that? Giddey also makes more of them, again at every single segment.
Welcome to "Giddey-is-the-new-Pat Island", Gran!
🌖👨🚀🔫👨🚀
Bust is harsh. He's not a star but he's clearly a rotation player. About as 3+D as you can get. At the 4th position you expect much more, but that draft was weak, and there are only 3 players drafted after him that are clear upgrades:
12 Haliburton
21 Maxey
28 McDaniels
What I never liked was the reach on Pat. I don't like drafting players that didn't start in college, it seems like a key indicator of ... something. Good enough for the NBA but being held back by their college coach? It's a clue.
Would this team be better with Okoro (drafted 5)? Not by much if at all, he's also a 5th starter (on a much better team granted). But it's the draft philosophy I don't like. You ignored the clue once, ok you get a midling picking in Pat. You ignore the clue twice, you get a barely hanging on player in Terry.
This article is about the contract though. It's a bad contract maybe, but this team is facing a roster cliff in 2026 and PWill will at least fill out that roster.
I long held the belief that Pat wasn't a bust, and maybe I still do depending on how we're defining what a "bust" is. I was in the same boat where I felt like he was pretty clearly a rotation player. But so far this year, he's taken a clear step back to the point where I think I'd classify him as an end-of-bench guy
If he's able to return to what he was last year before his injury, he'll have a long career in the NBA, mostly just because he fits an archetype that is in high demand.
But what if he doesn't? He seems so much slower this year and I have to imagine that's because of his foot injury. It's not like he's past his physical prime, so it's seems unlikely that's the cause. Is that injury ever going to fully heal? If not, is it going to stay the way it currently is or is it going to slowly get worse? I have no idea.
And it's not likely he's been steadily improving other areas of his game since he got into the league. The only area I can think of that I've noticed a fairly significant improvement is his hands on defense. He seems much better at swiping at the ball this year than he has been in years past, and even then, I wouldn't say he's amazing at it.
If he could just improve his handle and his ability to finish in the paint, he'd pretty much immediately be worth his contract. And on one hand, those seem like things that should be pretty easy to improve upon. But on the other hand, he's now in his fifth season and hasn't improved on them at all. I feel like I don't ever see anyone mention this, but I think his problem with dribbling and finishing in the paint is that he's not very coordinated. I don't think you can teach that, so his dribbling and finishing might always be really bad.
I heard a guru type tried to teach juggling as a way of improving hand-eye coordination to basketball players. He approached the Houston Rockets, who had Hakeem but also Chuck Nevitt, a 7'5" center who was rail thin and never played very much. The guy came in with his gear and Chuck looked at it, picked it up and just started juggling three things simultaneously. Apparently he used to do it for fun in supermaket aisles with tubs of Cool Whip.
it's semantics, and yes the team is graded on a curve because that draft was pretty bad.
but beyond those you mentioned...Bane (30) is a clear upgrade that was likely just an oversight by you
other slight upgrades
Okongwu (6)
Quickley (25)
Pritchard (26)
Toppin (8)
Avdija (9)
I think if the Bulls had any of those guys it'd still be a 'bust' of a pick considering how high the selection is, but more on the player than the team
oh Bane for sure, Bane would be a significant upgrade. But again, it's not the pick which was neither great or horrible, but the contract.
And we've completely dismissed the weirdo nature of that draft cause after a while those excuses start to sound ridiculous, but if the whole draft is down I think it's fair to look at the weirdo circumstances that each of these players had to deal with. And in retrospect, even more reason to draft older rather than younger in this draft.
Okongwu had 22/21 vs Suns last night
look at the Pelicans contributors - as in they can actually play basketball not just be tall - on Tuesday night:
Trey Murphy was #17, Jordan Hawkins was #14
The word "clear" is under a lot of stress in "clear upgrades." I have zero opinion on draft revisionism since I can't pay attention to college sports and don't know anything about the players beforehand, but I see quite a lot I would take over him today, if that's the question. It is an interesting draft, though, in the number of guys who have played themselves out of the league or almost done so.
I don't entirely trust Win Shares, BPM or VORP but it's interesting to note that Patrick is ranked around 26th through 29th in every one of them. PER isn't very friendly either, players that seem iffy to me like Isaiah Stewart, Nick Richards and Tre Jones far outrank him. If I had to roll that draft today I would probably place Patrick around #15, and I think that could slide into the 20s by next year.
Nah
A top 5 pick needs to at least be a solid, somewhat above average starter. Not a middling replacement player bench guy which is where Pat is at right now.
I hate the word bust and it's overused but he is a bust.
He shoulda been drafted in the 20s
Good news everyone! Pat is trade eligible today https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2025/01/eighteen-more-players-become-trade-eligible.html
oh FFS, the Hawks are tanking tonight. NO INTEGRITY
De’Andre Hunter (left foot soreness): Out
Jalen Johnson (right shoulder inflammation): Out
Zaccharie Risacher (left adductor irritation): Out
Trae Young (right rib contusion): Out
Welp, the Bulls just lost to Double D and the G-Stringers.
Reposted here.
https://streamable.com/lrihgr
If you took the names off the uniforms you would never guess which one is looking at an extension and which one is unsure of what league he'll be playing in at this time next year.
This is a relevant comment for a discussion about Patrick for that matter too. We're not supposed to judge them by draft position, but they are absolutely charmed to be in the position they're in because of their draft position.
Billy pre-game vs Atlanta just droning on like usual with the same story about Pat, how he's SO big and talented but we just don't "feel" it.
https://bsky.app/profile/drew-h-stevens.bsky.social/post/3lfsz3ge2dc2q
has anyone actually said "hey, i don't know what you are talking about with this athleticism, it's not there this year, is he hurt or what??
when has he ever used his "athleticism" to a memorable effect. I can think of like 5 times in his whole Bulls career. Athleticism doesnt mean a damn thing without body control and he is honestly pretty uncoordinated for a basketball player. He shoulda been a defensive end tbh haha
Pat speaks
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/01/16/chicago-bulls-patrick-williams-breaking-point/