Clutch runs out, as Bulls finding their level

they're still competitive, which is better than expected though!

The Bulls lost their 3rd straight game last night versus the Spurs, dropping them to a 6-4 record and fading back towards the middle. They’re currently exactly 15th on offense, and their improbably-stout defense has faded down to 20th in the league.

I have been reticent to adjust my priors when speculating on this season, and here’s a handy guide as to why:

You could figure the actual victories - which is a stat not to be dismissed, in fact it’s the most important stat in the team’s goal of home postseason gate revenue - were a bit flukey due to clutch luck. And, indeed, in these three losses the Bulls have had a -4.7 Net Rating in fourth quarters, and were 0-2 in the designated clutch contests therein.

There’s likely something to the theory that while the Bulls can stay in a lot of games because they aren’t relying on stars, it also means if the other team has a star playing well they can lose these kinds of games. All of Giannis, Donovan Mitchell, and then Wemby on Monday had spectacular takeovers against the Bulls.

Even so, merely being competitive in all these games, which has been against a pretty tough schedule¹ , is still above my expectations. I was thinking a 31-win team, and if they are merely average at the end of the season that would still pose existential dread of a franchise perpetually running in place, but be a lot better than I thought it’d go!

I am still holding off on even declaring this team will be average for the rest of the year:

• I drafted a Josh Giddey apology form but did not submit, and he suffered an ankle sprain versus Cleveland that rendered him ineffective in that 2nd half and then completely out versus San Antonio. Let’s see how it impacts his season, which to this point has been great because of him leveraging his physical advantages.

• Coby White has yet to play, but I am not sure he’d do much better than what Ayo Dosunmu, Tre Jones, Isaac Okoro, and Kevin Huerter have done in the minutes and usage they’re filling in?

  

  It is still good that Coby’s return means we don’t have to worry about those guys regressing (and they could all simply have career years), but I don’t see some huge leap coming due to that.

• A lesser impact but higher degree, Zach Collins being out has only meant the Bulls get to benefit from the wild upswings in a good Jalen Smith game. And he’s had more good than bad, hilariously leading the team in 3 point attempts per minute, and at a 37.8% make percentage. As much as the Bulls identity has been tied to pace, it also depends a lot on getting spacing from the center position. Smith allows the team to have 48 minutes of 5-out lineups. Vuc is not going to shoot > 45% from three all season either…or is he?

Maybe after 20 games I’ll feel confident enough to make all-important takes. The Bulls’ next matchup is an interesting one, as they have an opening-night rematch against the Pistons. I was not particularly impressed with how they, and Cade Cunningham in particular, played that night. But in the time since they have surged to a conference-leading 9-2 record and Cunningham won conference player of the week. This will be a rest neutral game, and it’s in Detroit.

1. yes, the Bulls have had the highest strength of schedule based on opponent record. But they’ve also had 6 of 10 games at home, and 2 games with a rest advantage versus 1 at a disadvantage and all others being identical.