Clutch runs out, as Bulls finding their level
they're still competitive, which is better than expected though!
The Bulls lost their 3rd straight game last night versus the Spurs, dropping them to a 6-4 record and fading back towards the middle. They’re currently exactly 15th on offense, and their improbably-stout defense has faded down to 20th in the league.
I have been reticent to adjust my priors when speculating on this season, and here’s a handy guide as to why:
You could figure the actual victories - which is a stat not to be dismissed, in fact it’s the most important stat in the team’s goal of home postseason gate revenue - were a bit flukey due to clutch luck. And, indeed, in these three losses the Bulls have had a -4.7 Net Rating in fourth quarters, and were 0-2 in the designated clutch contests therein.
There’s likely something to the theory that while the Bulls can stay in a lot of games because they aren’t relying on stars, it also means if the other team has a star playing well they can lose these kinds of games. All of Giannis, Donovan Mitchell, and then Wemby on Monday had spectacular takeovers against the Bulls.
Even so, merely being competitive in all these games, which has been against a pretty tough schedule1 , is still above my expectations. I was thinking a 31-win team, and if they are merely average at the end of the season that would still pose existential dread of a franchise perpetually running in place, but be a lot better than I thought it’d go!
I am still holding off on even declaring this team will be average for the rest of the year:
I drafted a Josh Giddey apology form but did not submit, and he suffered an ankle sprain versus Cleveland that rendered him ineffective in that 2nd half and then completely out versus San Antonio. Let’s see how it impacts his season, which to this point has been great because of him leveraging his physical advantages.
Coby White has yet to play, but I am not sure he’d do much better than what Ayo Dosunmu, Tre Jones, Isaac Okoro, and Kevin Huerter have done in the minutes and usage they’re filling in?
It is still good that Coby’s return means we don’t have to worry about those guys regressing (and they could all simply have career years), but I don’t see some huge leap coming due to that.
A lesser impact but higher degree, Zach Collins being out has only meant the Bulls get to benefit from the wild upswings in a good Jalen Smith game. And he’s had more good than bad, hilariously leading the team in 3 point attempts per minute, and at a 37.8% make percentage. As much as the Bulls identity has been tied to pace, it also depends a lot on getting spacing from the center position. Smith allows the team to have 48 minutes of 5-out lineups. Vuc is not going to shoot > 45% from three all season either…or is he?
Maybe after 20 games I’ll feel confident enough to make all-important takes. The Bulls’ next matchup is an interesting one, as they have an opening-night rematch against the Pistons. I was not particularly impressed with how they, and Cade Cunningham in particular, played that night. But in the time since they have surged to a conference-leading 9-2 record and Cunningham won conference player of the week. This will be a rest neutral game, and it’s in Detroit.
yes, the Bulls have had the highest strength of schedule based on opponent record. But they’ve also had 6 of 10 games at home, and 2 games with a rest advantage versus 1 at a disadvantage and all others being identical.
I was going to put in a bit about Buzelis losing playing time, especially to end games, but will wait and see on the Pistons game
this shouldn't be too surprising: Billy played Buzelis last year only because others got hurt, even when he was contributing more than veterans Billy didn't 'trust' it. And he may be right on that, but it is a '43 wins by any means necessary' mindset versus 'building while competitive'
Bulls Spurs is an instructive comparison. The Spurs had young 'talent' in Vassell, Sochan, Keldon Johnson that was supposed to be their new core. They are still on the roster but replaced with better players...obviously Fox but also clearly Castle and Dylan Harper. Their young core is now their bench. The Bulls started that same process last year with Matas for PW. They SHOULD have drafted another ready replacement this year instead of Noah (I believe they had Cedric Howard in their sights but Memphis jumped in front of them with a smart trade, while AKME sat back as usual).
What was clear last night and its good to be reminded was who can play when the game is on the line and who can't. Not surprising, but soooo clear. Yes: Huerter, Jones, Jalen Smith (Giddey and Coby fit that group too; Ayo also, but he either wasn't healthy last night or Wemby scared him away from the rim; I think Zach Collins is also a fine backup center). Clearly no: Okoro, PW, Vuc + the bench long-tail). Matas missing in the final lineup was clearly Donovan over-thinking; Matas is playing way too lose right now, yes, but he's aggressive with talent. PW and Okoro have the same sloppy downside with much less upside). Good start but they need to clean that all up.
And also: Wemby to me seems like a dick. A talented dick, but I found myself rooting hard against him last night to fail. Unfortunately, those final threes shut me up. Probably just jealous :)