The Wins have been flukey, but maybe Josh Giddey isn't
competitive + clutch = victories
The Bulls have maintained their stellar start to this season, now at 6-1 after a ridiculous 24-point comeback versus the Sixers.
It gets repetitive using the term ‘ridiculous’, but that’s how it’s been so far this season in terms of getting victories. The wins after the AllStarBreak last season were correctly invalidated by yours truly due to some lucky nonsense in the clutch but also the strength of schedule. This year, they are facing opponents mostly at full strength1, but the lucky nonsense in the clutch has remained.
A team with an objectively not-good defense becomes a juggernaut when the game is under 5 minutes and within 5 points.
Bulls are the terrible defense we thought they’d be…in 1st and 3rd quarters, with defensive ratings over 120 in each of those quarters. They’re top 5 in 2nd and 4th quarters, including No. 2 in 4th quarters now at 101.7. Just hilariously bipolar, but winning with clutch D.
The Bulls have played 16 clutch minutes. Their defensive rating is 58.8. That is why they’re 6-1. Bulls opponents are shooting 9/32 from the field, 1/11 from 3 and have taken just ONE free throw.
That’s from our ridiculous-comeback tracker and old friend Jason Patt, who also dug this out on the offensive side of the ball:
Vucevic is 1 of 10 NBA players with at least 10 clutch FGA this season. He’s first in FG% (70% on 7/10). None of the others over 50%. Bulls have the best clutch defense AND the most efficient clutch player.
Indeed, the defense ‘held’ Philly to a 4-22 mark in the 4th quarter, and Vuc hit the big corner three to get them the lead for the first time.
But the hero on that possession was actually Josh Giddey:
For much of the game, it was only Giddey who was keeping them afloat. In clutch time he was making plays - while potential All-NBA counterpart Tyrese Maxey looked relatively gassed2 - including this finish inside:
With no Ayo Dosunmu and still without Coby White, Giddey is dominating the ball and these games with it. Against the Sixers it was 37 minutes with 30.5% usage, finishing with 29 points on 19 shots, including 2 of 4 from three, with 15 rebounds and 12 assists culminating in that final one to Vuc.
It’s only 7 games, but Giddey looks to be carrying over some of his improvements from the end of last season. His defensive rebounding - always a strength - is better than ever, and crucial for the Bulls to play, well, Giddey-ball.
The outside shooting has also been a story, holding at 42%, but he’s actually shooting fewer than ever so I am not really buying that so far. And Giddey’s shooting percentage in the paint is also not too stellar, but he’s generating fouls at rates carried over from last season’s surge, obliterating his career-high this season with a .376 free throw attempt rate.
I am still pretty dumbfounded when watching Giddey play, it seems easy to stop if you just don’t foul him, don’t leave shooters, and let him pirouette all the way into the stanchion. But he’s a big dude, playing like it more than ever, and that’s easier said than done.
There were many questions about Josh Giddey heading into this season, he’s answered - so far - with the environment we know he can thrive in: a .500 ish team where he gets to control the ball with no other good players.
That’s not a bad thing! That’s the team the Bulls constructed around him, and he’s delivering. There was a concern troll before the season that Giddey was ‘too good’ and would raise the floor to keep this team over 35 wins. I wasn’t buying it, but he’s making me believe.
perhaps there is some continuity advantage for the Bulls versus teams with offseason changes
and former All-NBA counterpart to Vuc, Joel Embiid, looked terrible
I know nobody's going to believe this, but Vuc had (and has been having) solid defensive performances this year. He defended 26 shots last night and was at or below (good!) the team averages in every category. If you look at the anatomy of this win defensively, the credit goes to:
1. Vuc soaking lots of shot attempts from the Sixers guards. He contested 61% of 2s and 75% of 3s against him and had 6 deflections.
2. Matas defending the rim really well. With Embiid kind of floating around, the Bulls invert things a lot and have their 4 defend the rim. Matas did a good job of this but it won't appear that way.
3. Okoro and Jones' contributions were much more in takeaways than in actually locking down the Sixers (very good) guards. Okoro had 4 deflections, a charge drawn, recovered a lose ball, and had 2 steals. Jones had 3 steals and 5 deflections. Rather than employ Okoro as a lock-down defender, they really just let him run around and be disruptive. That was interesting, and it worked.
4. Huerter and Giddey will never get credit for being good defenders as tall, awkward looking white guys, but neither of them were really negatives defensively.
5. Pat was the biggest negative defensively. He gave up 7 baskets on 7 shots, all at the rim, and only effectively contested 1 of them. He has the opposite of Matas' skill defending the rim. I think this was evident to the coaches too, since Pat got a short shift in the second half.
I've been playing around with developing a formula like win shares and if I were going to divide up last night's win, it'd be
26% Giddey
20% Vuc
17% Okoro
12% Huerter
09% Matas
08% Tre
08% Smith
02% Terry
00% Phillips
-2% Pat
The league has been in a fascinating place the last few years. Ever since Durant left the Warriors, we’ve been in a “post superteam” era. This era has coincided with a constant influx of talent. Those two factors combined have created a sense of parity that the league hasn’t seen in DECADES.
Like most historical occurrences in sports, we won’t know how to fully analyze it until it’s over, but one thing that’s certain is that the days of feeling like only 4-5 teams in the league truly matter are currently over. This year alone, it feels like there are at least 15 teams that need to be taken seriously, and that includes the Bulls.
What’s funny is that this clearly wasn’t a result of some intricate plan from Arturas Karnisovas. Detailed planning is not his thing. His thing is to see how the season plays out and then reverse engineer a plan from the results. Hence why his talking points last year became about a fast playing style and a roster full of good players. It was clearly not his long term plan (if it was he wouldn’t have recently given LaVine the max). It’s what he realized he had AFTER he made trades, so he acted like that was his plan from the start.
Credit to Billy and the players for the success of this team. No credit to AK who couldn’t even set expectations for this year.