Bryson Graham Not The Brilliant Tactician I Thought He Was

can competence, slow and steady, succeed with this franchise?

Some consolidation and publication of thoughts I’ve posted elsewhere in the past week, as since the time the Bulls offseason merely appeared over it has only looked more obviously the case.

Heading into his first transaction cycle as a lead decisionmaker, Bryson Graham undoubtedly entered a really bad situation. But a silver lining was that the roster was a fairly open canvas:

• only a couple multi-year contracts and several expiring (and value-neutral) ones

• nobody, save maybe Matas Buzelis, worth special consideration as a locked-in long-term foundational piece

• 2 first round picks this year, owning all going forward

• 2 second round picks and a +5 surplus going forward

• a potentially league-leading >$50M in cap space

And what Graham has come out of that with is:

• 4 prospects (2 drafted, 2 not) headlined by Caleb Wilson

• 3 short-term contracts to veterans in Norman Powell, Nic Claxton, and Zach Collins

• 2 future second-round pick swaps

Of course, there is a chance for more future value in trades later this month. And they still possess the “Room Exception” ($9.3M) even if no longer owning cap space. Because the Bulls re-signed Zach Collins with some of that space, he can be traded immediately, but I can’t know if that was the Bulls incentive. And every day that goes by into the 2nd-5th tiers of free agency and you see better (or at least more reliable) backup centers earning less and it looks like the Bulls genuinely want Collins on the team next year.

Similarly, with more significance, on the Powell and Claxton contracts: that these players were targeted so early means they were not mere ‘salary slots’, and to get praise for the moves Graham needs to be correct in thinking those players will be better than others in fostering the young players’ development, simultaneously gaining value.

If talking assessing praise versus finger-wags on this entire offseason, I’ll subjectively grade this a C-.

This will move up an entire letter grade (I’m sure Graham is reading this, feeling assured) if the Dailyn Swain selection hits, as that was an instance where Graham’s purported strengths give him an advantage and Swain is more important as a potential long-term fixture.

Given that the Bulls did the very Bulls thing and hired someone new to the position, we don’t know much regarding Graham’s aforementioned ‘strengths’, but we’ve been told that he is a scouting and player development guy. Perhaps that extends to pro scouting with these veteran targets. I am genuinely heartened that the 2-Way roster spots are being treated with more consideration. Tiago Splitter is a major decision that could very well be another hit.

Hopefully all that, and Caleb Wilson being a star lucking into Graham’s lap, makes up for what looks to be an early deficiency in GM’ing: transactions

That the only, at least for now, long-term assets gained this offseason was those 2nd round pick swaps is more like a D to F grade. A team in a rebuild, armed with that much cap space and (what should be, anyway) ownership financial support, should be netting a lot more assets.

The league-wide trade market looks to be telling us that there aren’t high-value assets attached to salary dumps. But there are still some major dominoes to fall, at top of mind the LeBron James’s destination and Denver Nuggets impending luxury tax bill. That’s one of my major demerits of Graham’s strategy this offseason, in that he didn’t simply wait, especially after his post-draft equivocating over roster flexibility. This effectively-punting-to-next-season use of cap space is certainly better than misusing it, but should have been a backup plan after more fruitful paths dried up.

The other demerit is that it’s a reductive rationale to say these kinds of transactions are only worth it if you get a first round pick. Even if Graham has indicated he intends on carrying on Bulls tradition of not using them to draft players, 2nds are extremely useful transactional currency.

I’ll emphasize that taking on a bunch of dead money for 2nd round picks is not great business. It’s unlikely to produce much of anything too valuable in itself, but it generates value that can compound with other minor value to do something more significant in terms of getting the Bulls to title contention - which hopefully ownership realizes (they’re not great at business themselves) will make them a lot more money than whatever they save on payroll this year.

Instead, Graham’s actions on the margins look to be more about pleasing ownership¹ short-term over that holy grail of a title:

• Keep payroll low by not waiving players with guaranteed contracts

• Targeting undrafted free agents and selling the 2nd round picks for cash

• Retain a bunch of front office and coaching staff from the prior regime(s)

• Overpay a Mark Bartelstein client²

The good part about failing on the margins like this is that it’s ultimately still the margins. Graham can do a good job overall, and improve³ overall even if still lagging behind in this facet.

Ultimately it’s disappointing that while Graham looks competent so far, he didn’t hit the ground running as some wunderkind. And I think it’s fair to feel this way even though it’s expected, as the Bulls aren’t going to make their own luck when it comes to hires.

1. this includes special advisor John Paxson

2. I’ve heard speculation that ownership moreso than Graham ‘liked’ Collins, but it hasn’t made its way to reputable rumor-mongers. The Bartelstein connection is obvious but worth mentioning IMO

3. unfortunately, the Bulls treat all parts of their franchise, up to and including the owner, as a training ground