Bulls' Bryson Graham flexed his draft-knower reputation
Caleb Wilson at #4, Dylan Swain at #15. No grades until many years later!
I found the lead-up to this draft to be fairly underwhelming, but the draft night itself got me very excited. The #4 overall pick went, as KC Johnson likes to say, ‘as expected’, with the Bulls doing what everyone thought they should do1 and take the top-4 guy that likely wasn’t going to be picked already: Caleb Wilson.
Due to this consensus opinion, there really isn’t any assessment required on the pick itself. And due to the current state of the roster (bottom-3 talent base in the league?), fit and timeline doesn’t matter either.
Let’s instead get into learning about the player Caleb Wilson is, and how he individually projects to be in the NBA. That’s a way more exciting discussion, especially in this case because Wilson is an extremely tantalizing prospect:
I mean…this, altogether…this rocks. For an analytical profile that’s written down, I recommend Will Gottlieb at CHGO.
A superlative athleticism + size combination with a great motor. And Wilson’s weaknesses do not indicate a player that is unskilled, just that he may be deficient in certain skills (shooting, which of course is very important but not crippling to be subpar at this age) but showed proficiency in other skills including the nebulous trait of ‘feel’ aka ‘basketball IQ’ aka ‘we shouldn’t invoke comparisons to Tyrus Thomas’.
And if you want to learn a lot about Wilson as a person and how some of those more subjective traits will help him reach his professional potential, I highly recommend old friend of the blog Ricky O’Donnell’s massive profile of Wilson at SBNation. As old sportswriters and fans say in a way I find creepy: “seems like a good kid”!
This pick was a no-brainer for Bryson Graham’s first draft. For this to be graded in retrospect as a success, Wilson needs to become a star. And if he does, a lot more important good things will happen beyond ‘2026 draft grade’.
With the Bulls second selection in the first round, they drafted Dailyn Swain. Similar to Wilson in a several-inches-shorter package (and a bit older and more experienced, turning 21 in a couple weeks), Swain looks to be another big-time athlete with outside shooting concerns though possessing a knack for scoring inside:
Here’s Gottlieb’s written profile on Swain.
After the first round, Graham met with the media2. He didn’t reveal anything that was too unique, and in fact was somewhat in line with what Arturas Karnisovas would say about the draft:
take the best player available regardless of fit
the players selected are big and athletic for their position and can provide defensive impact and leadership
outside shooting is a skill that can be developed
I don’t think any of this is controversial. It’s key to remember the Bulls are going to be pretty awful next season, so you don’t need to spend your first round picks on a particular need or how they complement a particular player. For Wilson, you’re hoping for the big piece to build around regardless of what’s already here. And for Swain at #15, even if he doesn’t fit exactly right with Wilson (don’t care how he fits with Josh Giddey or anyone else), as long as he’s a rotation-level talent that’s good work.
It was never Karnisovas’s stated philosophies regarding the draft that was in question, is was his execution. Patrick Williams and Dalen Terry are comparable profiles (Wilson obviously has far higher upside than anybody AK had the opportunity to select) but they never improved and even regressed as pros.
And part of the issue with that development failure (the main issue being the players themselves and thus the scouting ‘miss’) was something that hopefully Graham differs from AK on: Graham, at least so far in public, acknowledges his team is not good and not even close to being good. What a welcome change a non-delusional front office will be for Wilson and Swain’s development, and the building of this roster as a whole.
Graham, like Karnisovas, came into this job for the first time with background as a player and then scout. The draft is where they can separate themselves in terms of player acquisition. Nobody knows anything, but you’re paid to rise above that. You earn a good draft grade by being in line with draft experts consensus. You succeed at drafting by seeing your team have good (or at least valuable) players a few years down the line.
Second Round is tonight! Bulls have picks #38 and #56, but as we already saw late in the first round there will be a lot of trading up and down. Maybe they will sell one!
Maybe not literally ‘everyone’, for example I heard Laurence Holmes on The Score say he preferred Keaton Wagler. But, I’m thinking “like…you’re not dedicated to learning this draft so who cares what you think?” I was only listening because Holmes was talking to an actual expert in Ricky O’Donnell.
never forget (though I do forget the particular year) that GarPax once started their post-draft press conference while the draft was still going on