Hey Bulls, I got your evaluation right here

technically, a point of interest in the final stumble of this season schedule

The Bulls front office head, Arturas Karnisovas, who is delusional to the point of outright moronic, emphasized after the trade deadline that this final stretch of the season is a really important period for him to evaluate the roster. And, also: winning games would inform that evaluation.

This premise, like many he stated, is absurd. The Bulls are almost boasting in how they continually emphasize that they can’t scout players on other teams, only learning about a player when they’re under their watchful eye coached by “great” Billy Donovan.

It makes no sense that they felt a need to play new additions Tre Jones and Kevin Huerter¹ immediately after their acquisition. These players were not individually targeted by the Bulls in the Zach LaVine trade, they pretty much had to be included for salary matching. And we hear so often how “chaotic” new additions are to Donovan² and the locker room, why the rush? The Wizards³ acquired players in this category as well, and they were told to stay home until after the break.

But we have no choice but to grant them this (outside of simply ignoring the team until the lottery), so let’s indulge.

But first let’s start with our own premise: winning games is independent of player development. Not entirely independent, as: if the players improve and play a lot of minutes, they’ll likely win more games. But the actual win total doesn’t matter as an indicator of future success, it only matters in affecting their lottery odds.

(And as those odds are fairly entrenched, and there is marginal addition in quality with these veterans (Vuc sucks again), I don’t look to losing games as the overriding goal either. Certainly they could stand to do some strategic rest to slightly ‘help’, but they aren’t going to shut anyone down.)

This is what the similarly-tiered Raptors have said (via).

the Raptors‘ coaching staff has encouraged the team’s young players not to stress over game-night results this season, having prioritized player development and growth over wins and losses.

Unfortunately, Donovan doesn’t agree. He thinks Matas Buzelis in particular needs to stress:

"The minute you start taking away winning as being any level of importance, how can you ever expect a young player to ever – ‘OK, now winning is important? Why’s it important now? Why’s it not important tonight?’ They need to feel a sense of urgency and importance every time they step on the floor. At some point ... the focus is going to shift of how much these guys are impacting winning. They need to start doing that now. Instead of saying, 'Hey listen, don't worry about it, it's not a big deal.' So now all of a sudden, when does it (winning) become a big deal? I think there's got to be consistency in the messaging of the importance of playing games."

Ironically, this was said before the team was humiliated in a 40 point loss.

That said, Buzelis is playing more and showing improvement. That’s great! Especially because he’s the only prospect worth investing in on the roster.

But the rest are still here too. I think we’ve evaluated enough, but AK has to buy time for his own job security so he insists they need more:

Guards

Start Josh Giddey and Coby White. It’s truly Bullsian how they are treating these two. With everyone else, it’s how the player performs as a Bull that trumps any prior scouting. Yet while Coby White produces (there is more to learn in scenarios where there’s no Zach LaVine), and his adaptable to pretty much any style/lineup, he gets usurped by Giddey, who had ample time in OKC and Chicago to show you he stinks AND you have to cater to his individual playing style.

Giddey, who was the entire useful trade return (outside of a single second-round pick) for dealing away LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Alex Caruso, has been bad. He hasn’t even been “well he’s bad but puts up good counting stats” level. Maybe that improves a bit with more usage in a LaVine-less offense, or could go down without having LaVine as a play finisher (and Vuc’s regression).

But it’s impossible that 25 games will help project him and his next contract⁴. Especially in the back-to-back losses to the Pistons, Giddey is revealed as athletically challenged, which I don’t mean to provide charitable cover: he has shown poor effort as well. He’s a bench point guard, and not even a good one.

So I suppose this would be an example where I don’t suggest something the Bulls would never do. But the rationale to start Giddey is that there’s no other projectable starting PG on the roster either. And the Bulls have under contract for next season TWO backup point guards (Lonzo Ball, Jevon Carter), so there is no chance Tre Jones sticks around so no point in playing him now.

Forwards

Buzelis starts, that’s good and should continue.

Another facet of Billy Donovan’s coaching style is that he needs 3 ballhandlers on the court at all times. I’m too tired to disagree with a Hall of Fame finalist, so instead just say Ayo Dosunmu is a small forward now and starting the rest of the season. He can defend the position enough (Giddey can ‘take’ the larger starting SFs).

Similarly-bodied to Dosunmu is Dalen Terry, but I have declared my evaluation over on him: stinks⁵

Same designation with Patrick Williams: don’t need to see him the rest of the season. RIP to “he’s comfortable as a bench player”, after two decent games he is giving nothing again. Just shut him down with a foot issue and have him get into shape for next year and hope that’s what was holding him back (this time).

Julian Phillips I’m willing to give more time on. Have him as the backup forward. Billy insists he can’t do that because he needs the extra ballhandler, but…he should relent in this case. Instead we’ve seen minutes go to Williams and Huerter.

(I don’t want to hear about how Huerter can improve his trade value and flipped next season. For one thing: similar to Pat, Huerter looks broken to the point where a better chance of improved play is only after a reset, like next training camp reset. And haven’t we learned from LaVine and Vucevic already that known quantities are not going to see their trade value change much? Unlike the Bulls, other teams do scout and don’t place overvalued importance on segments of regular season action.)

In fact, they should be giving some run to 2-way players DJ Steward and E.J. Liddell before wasting minutes on Williams and Huerter.

Centers

Gotta start Vuc. That’s part one of the “make Vuc, who is a star in our eyes, happy” plan that AK has made the guiding principle of his tenure. I do think there is some value in his offensive style of play helping others. It likely doesn’t override what his individual defense does to his teammates negatively, but the Bulls have made it clear they don’t care about defense this season.

Could we at least reduce his minutes? I don’t think there is much to learn about Jalen Smith one way or the other, but simply not seeing Vuc on my screen would be fan service.

And not that 3rd center matters, but if you did need one could unwrap Patrick Williams for that. In his current state he is a ground-bound short stretch five. Unlike the other two 2-way players, I don’t think there is hope for Adama Sanogo and it appears he’s been hurt for much of the year anyway.

Rotation

Starters: Giddey / White / Dosunmu / Buzelis / Vucevic

Bench: Ball / Smith / Phillips

Deep Bench: Jones / Huerter / Williams (if they don’t shut him down, if they do add 2-way guys)

Mothball: Terry / THT / Carter / Collins

Will they develop? Maybe, maybe not (or not anything we can count on), but we can project with more certainty that you won’t win many games. Sorry Billy (and Arturas).

1. Zach Collins played as well, but only in garbage time

2. a continuing Bulls contradiction, where Donovan is this fantastic coach yet he can’t be trusted to adapt in-season to new players

3. who I’ve cited often this trade deadline as a team doing things correctly…which is a stunning indictment when you think about it but they have a new front office

4. we can discuss that in the offseason, but I think Giddey is sub-MLE quality and they should just let him walk unless they can actually bilk a team in a sign-and-trade. Incredible the “laying groundwork” deadline work lauded by Bulls PR didn’t include seeing if Giddey had any value around the league.

5. underrated AK gaffe was picking up next year’s team option on Terry, $5.4M for someone 2-way quality