No need to spin: Arturas Karnisovas's plan is clear

again, it's not 'confusing', but still baffling

As a follow-up to the last post, where I said I wouldn’t go too deep into Arturas Karnisovas’s dumb words as they were routine at this point. Stupid, but boring.

The Bulls do have a (bad, stupid) plan

The main takeaway:

Karnisovas, delusional as ever, painted the picture of a roster that was an already-good-enough combination of young (“players between 20 and 25”) and quality

I still see a lot of expressed confusion from fans. Plus some¹ downright cowing of local media who are running cover for AK, saying he is just not a great speaker² and there is surely some secret, not-idiotic, plan the he just can’t express well.

KC Johnson, who is neither fan nor journalist (works at the broadcast partner), attempted some damage control on local radio (another broadcast partner) saying that he had a one-on-one sitdown with Karnisovas that made a lot more sense.

I have watched so you don’t have to. It is slightly better delivered (very slightly), but the same content:

1. There’s a plan that started last offseason

2. He’s satisfied with the work done since then

3. He’s satisfied with the progress, and speed of that progress

4. The next 30 games will inform him further on that progress

Both that assessment and the plan itself has been communicated directly and we’ve seen moves implementing it. Doesn’t make it all any less absurd.

The plan is to create a contender with ‘‘9-10 very good players” that relies on depth to succeed over teams reliant on 1-2 superstars.

Now that’s a patently laughable goal, as that it is simply not how great NBA teams are built. But let’s be generous and allow him this goal: there’s still the absolute failure of the work done so far in achieving it.

Here is the Bulls roster after the deadline:

Remarkable that a team “in transition” also has the worst young core in the league³. How many rotation players on championship contenders do you see above? I see Coby and Ayo, that’s it. AK repeated (he repeated a lot, thus my understanding that this wasn’t bad communication) “young players between 20-25” so that he could fit in Coby and Ayo and also identify Tre Jones as an asset from the Zach LaVine trade which otherwise had players saddled with toxic contracts. It’s possible Matas Buzelis becomes one, but it may take years pushing the aforementioned 25 year olds out of that same timeline.

Saying otherwise is a matter of subjectivity. Karnisovas would retort that actually there are more current Bulls potentially hitting that level, and likely specifically Josh Giddey⁴. He’s wrong (just watch Giddey get unmercifully hunted by the Warriors on Saturday), and part of his failings in executing this plan is that he will not cut bait when it doesn’t work out, and worse will more typically double down (like with Patrick Williams). Karnisovas believes that there are enough good, young players on this roster already, though they will be looking to add 1-2 more this offseason headlined by a late lottery pick.

That brings back AK’s false premise of creating a contender: I don’t believe PR spin that AK secretly knows he needs a star just won’t/can’t do what’s necessary to give himself a better chance at one. AK was very consistent in stating his belief (and manifesting it in transactions) that the best way to build is with a balanced roster and years of continuity. It hurts growth to have all prospects and no veterans, and also hurts growth when you make big in-season changes⁵.

Always satisfied, AK said that his oft-repeated “next 30 games” is a “win-win”: either they push for the play-in and that means the roster is growing, or they fail and get a higher selection in the draft.

Another ridiculous idea. It’s actually lose-lose: either they push for the play-in - a truly worthless achievement this year in this conference - on the backs of veterans or young players with experience⁶ (outside of Buzelis), or they fail and your coveted young nucleus is confirmed to be bad.

Then, finally, AK’s long-held belief that this is appropriately progressing and we still have years to go is just completely antiquated in the modern league, or if thinking worse of the man: a cynical gambit to stay employed.

Most NBA teams are constantly changing their strategy on the fly, just look at last week and how many trades were made - including among teams alongside the Bulls in the standings - that were minor re-sets to increase flexibility. AK is banking 100% on internal development, because he is incapable of improving things externally. The Bulls did get control of their first round pick back in the LaVine deal, but otherwise only have gained a single additional 2nd round pick (and are still at an overall pick deficit). They have so much money and roster spots tied up through next season in players that are neither core pieces nor prospects.

That’s why this trade deadline, specifically, was such a disaster. They didn’t even free up roster space to use as a tryout⁷. The time to trade Vucevic was now, to even get some better salary or a second round pick or two. Decide between Ayo and Coby now, and get a first (and free up playing time) in a deadline deal. To be better capable to make the next move, and then the next move. The idea that Nikola Vucevic is going to have more value in the offseason and merely trade talks were helpful to improve that value is ridiculous.

But, like a lot of other ridiculous things said by AK (and other things more spun as going on in AK’s mind) it is a plan. That is why fans are so dismayed that the plan isn’t “be terrible, and immediately”, and hasn’t been the plan all season. And how the rest of this season means absolutely nothing compared to draft lottery night.

It’s not because tanking is the best way to build a team, it’s the only way this idiot can build a team. Getting a can’t-miss prospect means, by definition, even AK can’t miss.

1. credit to Julia Poe and Darnell Mayberry for remaining critical

2. Jon Greenberg, in an otherwise-good column, incorrectly said fans insulting AK’s press conference was not a pertinent criticism. Part of AK’s job is communicating to the fanbase, and his obvious lack of preparation means nothing less than an insult to us

3. Maybe Brooklyn and Washington have a case, but then if you speculate on where their 2025 pick will land versus the Bulls…

4. I don’t even think AK would include Terry, Phillips, THT anymore, as they were DNP’d in favor of Jones and Kevin Huerter

5. AK admitted the originally Vuc trade was a mistake now, but…it was bad because they had a bad record in the 25 games after he was acquired that season. Just an insane thing to say (multiple times).

6. One of his many contradictions, AK is always saying he needs to see more from his young players to assess, but also touts how much experience they already have in the league. How will 30 games inform you more than 3 years?

7. too disruptive to the locker room, I suppose?