Bulls showing Vegas had them pegged

a really bad 3-game stretch testing new lows

The Bulls faceplanted the final bit of this fairly brutal stretch of schedule, where they were facing lesser opponents but it was a lot of games and travel. 6 games in 9 nights, where the first three ended in close contests but the final three have them showing a big letdown, especially on defense.

Hosting the Heat (14th on offense) and the Wizards (28th), and then in a road contest in New Orleans (26th), the Bulls put up a combined defensive rating of 126.1, which is really poor. Looking at the components to that defense, the opponent threes make percentage is starting to regress after a flukey start, but what is a more worrisome trend is the rise in fouling and losing rebounds. The Bulls started the year at top-10 in both defensive categories, but it’s sliding. What’s more concerning about those two factors in particular is they are really poor at their own offensive rebounding and generating fouls, so every night they are looking at a deficit.

Grumpy Nikola Vucevic was correct in his unimpressed post-game comments following the final-minute comeback victory over the Wizards, a game that was an indictment on Chicago as it looked like two tanking teams dunking on eachother a lot: it is not sustainable to play this way (-2.8 NetRtg, 20th) and still get victories (9-8, East 9th seed). And Billy Donovan has been correct in his own post-game soliloquys, win or lose: they are not very talented, so they cannot get routinely beat in these somewhat-more-controllable categories.

That assessment is likely news to the front office, who thinks (or is at least disingenuously selling) that this team is actually very deep with very good players. But while Coby White has returned¹ , they have started to suffer absences, which has exposed a drop-off in play that was supposed to be obviated by said depth.

Especially with the defense being especially poor - a very rare Vucevic absence no doubt contributed to the worsening defensive rebounding and over-fouling² - now there’s pining for Isaac Okoro (out with some hip/back day-to-day thing) and Zach Collins (hasn’t debuted this season after wrist fracture surgery) to return and save the defense.

But the depth was supposed to make role player injuries not a big deal, at least not as big of a deal as it would be for other teams. We’ve seen the Bulls replacements not only fail to sustain, but outright struggle against B-squad members of the Pistons, Blazers, and now Pelicans.

And the rotation is zero-sum minutes game. If Zach Collins plays, that means less of Jalen Smith who’s been a savior for the bench offense through his 3-point barrage and you could argue has won them several games. Okoro was already starting to see his minutes dwindle, as Coby’s return means more guard minutes soaked up.

I fear Billy Donovan will solve this ‘problem’ of too many players available by playing small and playing veteran. He’s been looking for any excuse to bench Matas Buzelis, and to be fair³ Buzelis isn’t helping his own case, especially lately. The “do-nothing twins”⁴ of Dalen Terry and Julian Phillips have lived up to their nickname even when given extended chances to take Small Forward minutes due to these injuries. So I’m foreseeing a lot of Okoro at small forward (backed up by also-undersized Ayo and Huerter) and Smith at power forward (alongside Vuc or Collins).

And that may be the best option to stop this defensive bleeding. It will open up other short-term and long-term issues (remember: we are talking about Isaac Okoro and Zach Collins, literal cast-offs), but that’s the ongoing situation with being a sub-average team. Still have yet to get to the 20 game mark to make that more determinative of a statement, but if they were truly better and deeper than expected they wouldn’t be going through this.

1. somewhat of a undermentioned point - as not to offend? - is that Coby has been a negative defensive player for his career

2. Vuc’s “no touching” defensive strategy gives up open layups but does not send them to the line!

3. given Billy’s directive - both personally and from his bosses - is to get postseason home games

4. credit Zach Lowe