Bulls recent results are meaningless, the performances only slightly less so

I'm here to say you are right to not pay attention to March NBA

This Bulls season is STILL going on, and this year’s team is exhibiting what has become a staple of the Arturas Karnisovas era: playing well after the All-Star Break, long after all significant meaning has been stripped out of their season.

They are 10-7 since the break, 9th in the entire league in net rating (11th offense, 14th defense). That has launched them all the way to…9th place in the second division that is the East. They are merely 2 games out of 8th¹ , and of the 4 play-in teams while they are still the betting longshot to make the real (again, East, but still…) playoffs, they are playing near the best of them and have beaten them head to head already this season.

Making the playoffs is what has tangible effect on this team’s long-term future. There was never a tank, and the difference in lottery odds between the 8th and 11th worst record isn’t worth getting upset over. If they make the playoffs, there is then a 0% chance at the number one or even top-four² selection.

So the team’s record lately has no significant effect either way, including on the likelihood of AK’s self-congratulatory victory lap after the season (100%). Which is helpful to know when processing how we should feel about it, because it is also coming in Mickey Mouse March, the worst and least-informative part of the NBA calendar. While there may be a some theory of team success being driven by a sustainable playing identity of fast-paced offense and depth in their rotation wearing teams down, it’s more that the Bulls just have a bunch of not-terrible “guys”³ , and against teams either trying to lose or rest their good players. For example, on Tuesday they beat the Nuggets due to another dominant 4th quarter. Was that BillyBall grinding them down, or were they on a back-to-back and missing Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon?

They haven’t ALL been garbage wins, but predominantly so, and the few non-garbage wins just reemphasize that bad teams can beat good ones on occasion in the NBA.

So, Q.E.D.: team success at this time is all pointless and useless.

But what about the players? Evaluating the team’s young and very-young cohort was perhaps the only possible use of the post-AllStarBreak season. The good news is that Billy Donovan, a bit ‘helped’ by injuries⁴ in this regard, is not egregiously burying any too-important young players in pursuit of short-term gains. Dalen Terry, Julian Phillips, Jalen Smith, they are all on the spectrum of ‘guy’ to ‘out of the league soon’ and aren’t being helped or harmed too much this month.

And the important young players in expanded roles are thriving: Coby White, Josh Giddey, and Matas Buzelis.

I won’t go into their stats, because 1) personal apathy and 2) again, IT’S MARCH (we’ve seen this in prior years at this time!), but:

White - on a heater and playing at an All-Star level as the team’s focal offensive weapon

Giddey - finally delivering what we were promised: gaudy counting stats on a bad team

Buzelis - supplying enticing flashes on both ends, showing overall progress in the way he is breaking through rookie slumps

I don’t think their improvement in this silly part of the season is entirely meaningless. It’s certainly better than still playing poorly after the break. But this all has to be interpreted very skeptically, certainly with more skepticism than AK will use to justify his job security and the credulous media also justifying their job of having to follow this team.

But as the theme of this post is trying to clarify what matters and what doesn’t: while AK, team PR, and beat media all currently very much upset me, their praise doesn’t make a difference.

What does make a difference, as always, is how the Bulls value their players versus how the league does.

There shouldn’t be a single piece of commentary on the Bulls own feelings towards Giddey driving up his contract price. Giddey is a restricted free agent, and the consensus after the first half of the season and prior negotiations with other players all but guaranteed that the Bulls would wait and see if any other team would offer him a contract. We already know AK incorrectly believes that March is meaningful, but do the Brooklyn Nets also now think Josh Giddey is a starting-level guard because of this stretch?

Similarly, but not as easily defined, with Coby White. White has another year under contract, and the league’s extension rules have always made it very unlikely that White could extend off of his current, bargain, contract. Given that contract status⁵ and the team’s overall talent base and direction, it made sense that the team would look to trade Coby. Whether that would be for picks, or more likely in a package for a star, it truly does not matter how the Bulls feel about this stretch and if he’s ‘reached another level’, but how other teams feel about it. Would the Magic - rumored to be interested in Coby at the deadline - now throw in a second 1st round pick? Would the Hornets view Coby as an adequate centerpiece of a return in a LaMelo Ball trade to Chicago?

Thinking of the Bulls recent success this way is a bit freeing, because it takes AK’s dumb ass out of it. That’s why so many fans wanted a tank, because it kept future decisions out of the heads of these decision-makers, who have already proven to be worthy of firing many (so many) times over.

But while trying to downplay the tangible effect of AK’s delusional incompetence is a neat trick for self-care, it can’t bring complete serenity to Bulls fans. Even in situations where the rest of the league has more clarity on a situation, like the star potential of Giddey and White, AK’s dumb ass is a looming specter.

1. what, and abdicating their reign as 9/10 play-in champs?!?!

2. I believe consensus is that Cooper Flagg is a tier to himself, but picks 2 and 3 are also potential stars.

3. RIP to the absurd “re-sign Tre Jones” campaign, he’s out for weeks with a sprained foot. That you didn’t notice is the point.

4. great work by Rich Paul and #BeKlutch, securing another contract for Lonzo Ball and then never playing again.

5. keep in mind that it is not totally dire if White gets to unrestricted free agency because he functionally cannot extend his current contract. The Bulls and many other teams will have cap room, but the Bulls can still re-sign Coby with Bird Rights even if they were over the cap.