I really would--lest I become Dan Bernstein hoisting his hands above head about the merits of Scott Podsednik as a lead-off hitter and about Dan Bernstein Being Right About Everything (R) at the expense of team success--but I just don't buy this version of Coby White, who's getting to the FT line like Jimmy Butler, and pulling up in transition so irrationally and confidently that Stacy King is belly-laughing over Denzel Valentine remembrances mid-broadcast.
I think laughter is the right response here, but not because I'm convinced that this NBA-Jam version of Coby White is here to stay.
Even less so, with Josh Giddey, a career 33 % shooter from 3. whose last five games (twelve, really) have been the outlier of his lifetime.
My concern is yours, that the Bulls, as they always do and always have and presumably always will, forever more, probably overvalue what they have in hand. They have two decisions to make and it's in AK's best self-interest to use March 2025 as substantiation for them affirmatively. That's some scary shit, even if there are those among us who will suspend priors about both White and Giddey being aggressively mediocre talents who have never played professional games that actually matter.
I think what we can say is:
1. Zach LaVine is a basketball vacuum who sucks the fun and collective productivity out of every airspace he's ever professionally occupied. His absence makes this team immensely more fun to watch. And as an individual talent who was also fun to watch, this is strange but welcome juxtaposition.
2. Matas Buzelis has been AK's best roster decision by whatever fault of his own you want to assign here. If he shot better with Ignite, I don't think we have the pleasure of employing him. But he's here now, and he's very fun.
3. Patrick Williams is not fun at all and would rather be presumably anywhere in the world than here.
4. No one really knows what they're watching until the games actually matter. We might get one, or maybe a few of those this year.
it would be pretty funny if the Kings miss the play-in entirely while the Bulls making the playoffs. given how things are trending, pretty good chance that happens!
as a Zach LaVine defender, I have to admit the Ewing Theory is very real lol 2 straight years of this! and he admitted vibes are bad in Sacto (shocking!)
We devoted 7 years to Zach LaVine and he was always the worst. What a boat anchor of a player.
Coby is different. Coby is stronger than all other guards he's encountering, and he's eager to show them he's stronger and that is leading to some stellar below the rim action. The shooting is clearly sustainable, we know he can jack up shots over the course of an entire season. It's the paint points that is most taxing and I'm not sure about, but he's dominating his opposition right now, you got to roll with it.
I don't buy the idea that Coby's shooting as of late is sustainable. He's a career average shooter from deep who is on a blistering heater. I'm not complaining about it, his past is too littered with 1-6's and 2-7's for me to feel tingly all over at this point.
It's the foul-drawing that has to keep up for him to be this supernova of offense we've seen lately. We'll see.
Coby's last few games have been really hot from 3 but before that he wasn't shooting it THAT great from deep. the foul-drawing (as noted) and his finishing inside the arc have just turned other-worldly this month. I know Nuggets fans were pissed at the calls he and Giddey were getting heh
I'm skeptical of Coby yet this is by far the longest streak of 20 pt.+ scoring games (13) he's put together in 3 years. Last year he had a 5-game streak and the year before didn't do it consecutively a single gosh darn time. I had the expectation that any time he put up a 30-point game he'd stink the next game, like in last year's play-in, but this is interesting, despite it being Meaningless March.
I guess we can all decide on our own what is meaningless. As a Bulls fan, it is meaningful to me to see our young players get better. It's meaningful to me to see our vets that will be on expiring contracts play well to increase their trade value. It's meaningful to me that we will get to see Josh, Matas and Coby in the post-season, and hopefully for multiple games.
I am not delusional about our chances, but it would be great to see if we could win a game or two against the Cavs.
If you want to be grumpy and say it's costing us a 3% chance to get Cooper Flagg, I get it, but I'm not with you on that. I like the way the Bulls are playing and want to see more.
I don't think there's any meaning on the vets increasing trade value because the Bulls won't trade them (partially because they don't understand trade value)
I also would be pretty surprised if other teams all of a sudden felt urged to give up real value for the likes of Vooch, Huerter, Collins based off a March surge in a system that's inflating numbers basically across the board. Jones kinda fit into this too though obviously he's a FA and not under contract, but the guy was shooting almost 60% with the Bulls before he went down.
the Coby/Giddey stuff is obviously way more meaningful, and the question of course is just how much they can sustain over a full season, with increased scouting/attention, etc. We saw Coby White pull a somewhat lesser version of this just last season for 2 months after Zach went down before he turned back into a pumpkin (outside of a few games, like the Hawks play-in game) to end the season and to start this season (again, some gems here and there but overall just kinda whatever). Giddey has had Mickey Mouse March's the last 3 seasons now, though again, like Coby, THIS is better than we've ever seen him over a longer stretch of time.
The assumption here is their actual long-term level is somewhere in between the trash/stagnation we saw to start the season and the insane All-Star level production we've seen the last month or so. What does that actually mean for long-term contracts/future success of the team? I have no fucking idea. The Bulls as a team are playing so far out of their minds right now (and it's on both ends in the 4th quarter, to truly unbelievable degrees) that it's hard to really peg anything.
They certainly are playing a fun brand of basketball though and I will not begrudge fans for enjoying it given the dogshit Chicago sports fans have put up with for years now, but there still needs to be a lot more proving to do before it's truly meaningful.
It's pretty clear we won the Lavine trade. Many pundits are now saying we won the Giddey trade as well. I would really like to see Giddey in the playoffs against the Cavs.
We only win the Giddey trade if Caruso doesn't fulfill his defensive stopper role in the playoffs. There's no way to say we won that trade if Caruso helps them win a championship and we didn't ask a higher price for what was a clear championship outcome.
Hard to say the Bulls "won" a trade where the other team is going to win 65+ games with a historically great point differential while possibly winning a title and the guy they got is arguably the most impactful non-big defender in the NBA (Caruso is 1st in DEPM) while the guy they traded was going to be moved to the bench.
Giddey has to help lead the Bulls to anything of significance first before we can say they won it, but it's looking better than before.
Caruso has only played 900 minutes though. It's hard to be impactful if you are not on the floor. I like Caruso and I hope he is healthy for the playoffs and helps the Thunder get to the Finals.
Giddey is having a very good EPM year himself. Overall he's at the 88th percentile, which puts him roughly in the top 75 NBA starters. And his defense grades out as average, which is a big improvement from what most people expected.
yeah Steph Noh was looking at the Giddey numbers and at the start of the season Giddey was like 5th percentile for defense but has gotten up to more average level. The Bulls' defense in general being elite in 4th quarters of late might be the most shocking thing about all of this! Think there's a fair amount of shooting variance luck here but also just a testament to playing hard at this time of year and not mailing it in.
he no longer is like don't-sign-him-at-any-price bad like he was to begin the year, but he still shouldn't be paid like a starter due to his limitations that aren't going to improve with age/experience
so like a 6th or 7th man change-of-pace guard making MLE?
No, and definitely no, to LaVine and Caruso trades, but it doesn't really apply because those players are better than their current veterans that are just salary flotsam. These guys on expirings are more akin to Vuc, who nobody wanted or at least not to AK's absurd asking price
I'd say Dalen Terry has increased his value and justified another year of development minutes. His 4th quarter defense on Jamal Murray was the type of annoying, get-off-me defense that he's capable of, and 4 for 4 from 3 from Terry brings him to 38%(!!!) on the season.
Indeed it's not quite clear what we're missing from Tre Jones being out.
The best realistic case for a while is that the Bulls pursue pointlessness in their cheap and risk averse way, where they don’t deal future picks and don’t lard up the cap sheet with overpaid veterans for a while, while Karnisovas’ and Donovan’s contracts term out. Paying Giddey $20-25 million a year to lard up the box score is fine. This team has never committed to renting cap space for picks. Convincing yourself Coby is going to become an All Star and giving him $40+ million must be avoided.
hypothetically, what would a team over the cap offer the Bulls in a sign-and-trade for Giddey on a $25M/yr deal? a $30M/yr deal?
why don't we hear a single rumor about another team lining things up to pursue Josh Giddey this offseason? It's only talk of "well AK is an idiot, and traded for the guy, so he'll get paid"
I can't believe this Overton Window shift for Giddey where the Bulls will be 'insulting' and scare FAs if they don't proactively give him a huge contract. Didn't we learn from Vuc and the last 25 years that doesn't matter? Especially for clearly non-star players like Giddey?
That is the 'risk' of telling him to go get an offer. If he doesn't get anything too far above that he'll take a one year deal and be unrestricted FA in 2026
To which...would that be so bad? Bulls would still have bird rights, and likely cap room anyway. Other teams will also have cap room but are the Bulls really 'afraid' Giddey will have some monster year where he's offered a max or something?
I used to believe and it was widely accepted that Zach LaVine would find his level when he was on a team with better players. While the talent in the line-up of Sacramento isn't blindingly bright it's still the best talent he's been around since arguably the 35 Glorious Games of Lonzo and the raw talent on the T-Wolves when he was drafted. And he is not good. His shooting percentages are fine, he's a human turnover but he was that here too, but you look at that thing out there and it's really hard to convince yourself he's more valuable than a bog standard Buddy Hield or Donte DiVincenzo to Sacramento. He's on another level of athleticism and skill from those guys, but they do what you need, Zach only sometimes does that and he does a whole bunch of other stuff you probably don't but are paying for anyway.
I came to appreciate Zach for the player he was. He tried his best to make the most of the talent God gave him. But I'm happy he's not on the Bulls anymore.
And I guess good for him that he is back on the west coast, closer to home. The Kings always wanted him so maybe he can find a fit there at some point. It feels good to not be invested in that though.
The "problem" with Zach is that he's like the best "4th best guy on a good team" in the league. He's so good that he's mistaken for a 3rd best guy or even a 2nd best guy on his good days. Maybe he'd be the 3rd best guy on a good team with two all-NBA ball handlers who are also wing defenders.
This is amplified by the fact that he's just good enough that you think you can put the ball in his hands, but you really can't in an important situation. Again... this is what separates him from being a top tier guy.
Meant to add on to this that Zach benefits a lot from playing with a guy who has pretty good setup skills (Lonzo, and if we're being honest, Giddey) vs. being, himself, a poor-man's PG.
The real irony of the Kings trading for him is that they traded away Fox to get him, so they sort of negated the upside of getting Zach.
Zach + Fox would have been interesting, at least. Zach/Demar/Sabonis is a show we've seen before
I think the thing about Lavine is that he's a really good shooter at all levels, an exciting athlete, and he's actually got a pretty nice set of moves he can showcase on any given night. When he's cooking, he can score with the best of them.
All of that feels like there might be an elite player in there somewhere. But he's got horrible instincts and a lousy motor, so he's always sabotaging games with boneheaded decisions or by giving up on plays. Tragically, those are the things that he brings night in and night out.
Lakers win a grueling game in Indianapolis on a last second shot. SOMEHOW they will be tired in Chicago the next night. Maybe due to BillyBall, who can really say
shout-out to Bulls Jay, long-time chronicler of Bulls bullshit luck:
> If we narrow this down to just last 7 games since start of road trip, Bulls 4th-quarter shooting numbers are truly unbelievable. The WORST percentage is Coby White at 48.6% (not counting THT's 1 miss) and EVERY player is over 40% from 3 except for Zach Collins and his 0/2 (and he's 6/8 on 2s). And again, the Bulls are shooting like this in 4th quarters while their opponents are bricking everything in sight. Bulls opponents during this stretch are shooting 40% overall and 26% from 3. It's a perfect storm.
Yeah…I’m willing to give a lot of credit to these guys and Billy for punching above their weight like this but this 4th quarter stuff this month is SO extreme/outlier that the regression, whether that’s this season or next, is probably gonna be rough. Like almost every rotation guy shooting 60+% from 3 in 4th quarters while opponents make a quarter of their 3s (it’s under 23% in the last 11 games) is just pure silliness. But they’re playing a fun brand of basketball so let it ride.
The Bulls have won 9 of their last 11 games, have been putting up ridiculous shooting numbers, and STILL have the worst point differential of any play-in team in either conference.
Can’t wait for that gentleman’s sweep in the first round of the playoffs and that 15th overall pick!
They have the worst point differential of any play-in team in either conference during that 11-game stretch? Or you're just trying to say this recent hot streak hasn't really affected their point differential for the season?
This hot streak has elevated their overall season from “embarrassingly bad” to just “normal bad”.
Remember how Nikola Mirotic was a consistently below average player who performed the best in March when other teams were injured or not trying very hard? AK has basically built the team version of Mirotic.
I was very critical of AKME for the Caruso/Giddey trade, their chronic lack of activity, and their waiting too long to dump Zach or DeRozan. But whether they saw something in Giddey, Matas, or lucked into something, I have to give props. This team looks like it finally has an identity. Patrick Williams will always be closer to a bust than worthy of the 4th overall pick, and he is even making real contributions at the moment.
A core of White-Giddey-Matas with contributions from Pat, Huerter, and Ayo is not a bad start. They need to find a strong interior presence on the offensive and defensive ends of the floor, but this team looks better than completely lost for the first time since at least 2021.
While it might suck to win out of a better lottery pick, I don't think we can discount the impact of consistently winning against good teams like the Lakers, Nuggets, and Pacers can be. The kids need confidence at some point, and there are finally some modest returns of it on display.
“A core of White-Giddey-Matas with contributions from Pat, Huerter, and Ayo is not a bad start.”
It wouldn’t be a bad start if all of those guys were really young with years remaining on rookie contracts. But that’s not the case.
Coby has been in the league for 6 years, on his second contract, and will be looking for a big raise with his third contract.
Giddey is looking for a massive payday this summer.
Pat is on a second contract that’s paying him more than he’s worth.
If you financially commit to this group, it wouldn’t be AK’s start…it would be THE team for the foreseeable future. That’s the problem. That’s not good enough.
There's a lot of talent in the league. I'd put that 'core' still in the bottom five, though looking better than in January only clearly better than Utah, Brooklyn, Washington. On par with Portland and Charlotte. And three of those teams are likely going to boost above the Bulls after the draft (at least whoever gets Flagg)
Yeah, I don't know how you could like that core for anything. It's like the 3rd, 4th, 5th pieces to a good young team and Coby only has 1 yr left at a discount and Giddey might get overpaid this summer. It's missing the most important stuff.
that core is not anywhere near good enough. That's a perennial 38 win team unless you think Matas can become a top 20 guy which I don't. I think he will be pretty damn good and maybe he could become a perennial All-star one day but who knows, he's not a sure thing at all even with some of the flashes that we have seen.
Pat is a net negative now, Huerter is just a guy and as much as I like Ayo, he is a 6th man for a contender or a 5th starter if you have multiple All-star type dudes in your lineup
I have not watched a single Bulls game this season and yet this team continues to infuriate me. I’d equate this run to when Mirotic came back in 2017 from a mysterious facial fracture and ruined their chances at Luka. This team even at its very best still is a joke. Now an outlier run threatens so set the Bulls up for years of mediocrity. Again.
Josh Giddey can do what he wants in March but the playoffs are an entirely different beast. In the same way Antonio Blakeney could dominate the G-league yet sucked at an NBA level, Giddey is nothing more than a bench player on a contending team. Anyone remember Montrezl
Harrell winning 6th man of the year and immediately getting dumpstered in the playoffs? Any remaining Bulls fan is so desperate for any modicum of hope that they’ll buy into this schlock.
The Bulls have shown that winning titles is not important ever since they gutted the bench mob in 2012. From GarPax to AKME, they’re interested in keeping their job rather than actually setting the team up for success. As long as the team brings in their typical revenue, nothing will change. There will always be those who are too naive to see this, Bulls fans fiercely defended the Vucevic and DeRozen trades at the time and yet the obvious criticisms were totally right. Reinsdorf has no interest in titles and it seeps into every crevice of the team. Now in 2025 the Bulls are facing a crossroads and it seems they are locking themselves into being the face of the play-in for years to come.
I am not sure how many fans are buying the Giddey hype. I wouldn't pay him more than $12 mil/year to be a ballhandler off the bench but I'm sure the idiots in charge will give him triple that because he's a TRIPLE DOUBLE MACHINE.
Regardless, I was glad when they got Demar and don't regret it today, even though it all amounted to nothing. He was more fun to watch than anyone they've had since D-Rose. This organization over the last 15 years is an absolute snoozefest.
DeMar as an individual player is fun to watch. DeMar as a team player is not. He doesn't play a game that is conducive to team success.
I think Giddey is probably worth more than $12 million a year, but definitely not more than $20 million.
My guess is he won't get many offers on the open market which means the Bulls should be able to play hardball with him. They need to do what they did with Coby and Ayo and bring him back on a short deal at an aggressive price. I'm thinking 3 years at $45 million or something like that.
I realize that. The Bulls don't have many guys who 'play a game that is conducive to team success' over the timeframe I mentioned, which is why they sucked then, now and will suck next year. I've gone from someone who watched 60+ games per season to someone who watches zero. Demar delayed that slide for a minute is all I'm saying.
These last two games are exactly why you should not want the Bulls to go all in on this core.
In a home game against another play-in team (the Mavericks), Giddey followed up his half-court buzzer beater with a triple-single and 25% from the floor.
Last night, the Bulls played a legitimately great team that’s been trying all season and they lost by almost 30.
By the way, the Heat have now won 5 straight and the Bulls are back down to the 10th seed.
This shouldn’t be complicated. Let Giddey walk this offseason. Build around Buzelis and whoever you draft this offseason. Trade Vuc for whatever you can get. End this perennial play-in silliness.
We're at the point where it's not even like "Here's what the clever move is, am I not clever for thinking it up too?" We're at "Here's the most obvious fucking move that they're somehow bungling again."
The Sixers have more talent on the bench than Chicago has had in the last 10 years and in a month have gone from surrendering a top-8 protected to being just outside the top 4. They nearly have a 50/50 chance of winding up there just on present lottery odds (which can still improve), and a 1/10 chance of getting the #1 overall.
Karnisovas has set a high standard but this is easily the most tactically idiotic thing he's done here. The past two years you could argue that a team full of veterans wouldn't sit. You'd be wrong, but you could fairly argue that.
I watched far more games than expected this year and not one since, idk, early February? So whatever players are doing is beyond me, but I feel like my unique vantage point as a human being who can dress myself tells me that they're doing it in the wrong fucking uniform.
The Reinsdorfs have figured out how to consistently make money from the team:
1) Never pay the luxury tax. That earns them roughly $10 million a year (since 2020, anyway).
2) Refuse to tank. No matter how bad your team is, there are plenty of winnable games after the all-star break as all of the other teams start tanking. That should get you enough wins to get you comfortably into the play-in (post-season basketball!) which turns fans out, and allows you to point to your late-season record as a sign of hope for next season, which increases next year's season ticket sales.
3) Do not speak to the media. The front office wouldn't be down with this plan if that had talent, intelligence, or pride, so your best bet it to maintain radio silence and hope nobody notices.
We're going to be stuck with AK for a long time...
It's probably silly to make the distinction, but I'm not sure Reinsdorf's completely allergic to tanking. I mean the team has done it before, several times, once just 5 years ago. Did he change his mind? Because counting Lauri, the Bulls picked in the top 10 for 4 years in a row. They were terrible, and the few free agents they signed were mostly short-term deals meant to goose the box office.
The playin isn't getting them much revenue, and with the team off TV for a million people, probably isn't much of a boost to their ad revenue either.
He's certainly allowed this, perhaps even encouraged this mentality, though.
I think that gives them too much credit. They can make money just by being in the league and in Chicago. I don't think the season ticket base rises or falls on this 'competitiveness'
what they do beyond that only limits things, but you're correct that it doesn't matter as long as it's not a multi-season embarrassment and somehow AK keeps getting away with being one by convincing the people who have to cover the team that it's not
Is building a 37 win team the easiest kind to build? There's a million ways to get there- mediocre resource allocation, talent development, roster deployment, etc. I'd say that scans. It takes execution to be really good or really bad.
For reasons most people who follow this blog would agree with, it may not matter what AKME do, but I wouldn’t be thrilled if they traded Coby for LaMelo Ball. From everything I’ve read, LaMelo is just empty stats - more entertaining perhaps than Zach LaVine, but no more efficient and no D. If we could combine LaMelo’s physical talent with Lonzo’s brain and instincts, we’d have a superstar, but obviously that’s not an option. At least Coby puts forth effort.
funny to hear the loaded questions of the Raptors "winning culture" versus the Bulls. The former has a GM that won the freaking NBA title with that franchise. What has AK ever proven to be a successful message towards winning? Billy Donovan has at least won 2 college titles, and it's not his fault he has to be up there 3 times a week spouting this stuff, but his career with this lot has him only looking to break the new congressional filibuster record (TOPICAL HUMOR)
I'd love to be wrong about this.
I really would--lest I become Dan Bernstein hoisting his hands above head about the merits of Scott Podsednik as a lead-off hitter and about Dan Bernstein Being Right About Everything (R) at the expense of team success--but I just don't buy this version of Coby White, who's getting to the FT line like Jimmy Butler, and pulling up in transition so irrationally and confidently that Stacy King is belly-laughing over Denzel Valentine remembrances mid-broadcast.
I think laughter is the right response here, but not because I'm convinced that this NBA-Jam version of Coby White is here to stay.
Even less so, with Josh Giddey, a career 33 % shooter from 3. whose last five games (twelve, really) have been the outlier of his lifetime.
My concern is yours, that the Bulls, as they always do and always have and presumably always will, forever more, probably overvalue what they have in hand. They have two decisions to make and it's in AK's best self-interest to use March 2025 as substantiation for them affirmatively. That's some scary shit, even if there are those among us who will suspend priors about both White and Giddey being aggressively mediocre talents who have never played professional games that actually matter.
I think what we can say is:
1. Zach LaVine is a basketball vacuum who sucks the fun and collective productivity out of every airspace he's ever professionally occupied. His absence makes this team immensely more fun to watch. And as an individual talent who was also fun to watch, this is strange but welcome juxtaposition.
2. Matas Buzelis has been AK's best roster decision by whatever fault of his own you want to assign here. If he shot better with Ignite, I don't think we have the pleasure of employing him. But he's here now, and he's very fun.
3. Patrick Williams is not fun at all and would rather be presumably anywhere in the world than here.
4. No one really knows what they're watching until the games actually matter. We might get one, or maybe a few of those this year.
it would be pretty funny if the Kings miss the play-in entirely while the Bulls making the playoffs. given how things are trending, pretty good chance that happens!
It's almost like Zach LaVine is a losing player, or at least not winning enough to transcend factors like 'being in the West'
as a Zach LaVine defender, I have to admit the Ewing Theory is very real lol 2 straight years of this! and he admitted vibes are bad in Sacto (shocking!)
We devoted 7 years to Zach LaVine and he was always the worst. What a boat anchor of a player.
Coby is different. Coby is stronger than all other guards he's encountering, and he's eager to show them he's stronger and that is leading to some stellar below the rim action. The shooting is clearly sustainable, we know he can jack up shots over the course of an entire season. It's the paint points that is most taxing and I'm not sure about, but he's dominating his opposition right now, you got to roll with it.
Boat anchor is fitting, very fitting.
I don't buy the idea that Coby's shooting as of late is sustainable. He's a career average shooter from deep who is on a blistering heater. I'm not complaining about it, his past is too littered with 1-6's and 2-7's for me to feel tingly all over at this point.
It's the foul-drawing that has to keep up for him to be this supernova of offense we've seen lately. We'll see.
Coby's last few games have been really hot from 3 but before that he wasn't shooting it THAT great from deep. the foul-drawing (as noted) and his finishing inside the arc have just turned other-worldly this month. I know Nuggets fans were pissed at the calls he and Giddey were getting heh
I'm skeptical of Coby yet this is by far the longest streak of 20 pt.+ scoring games (13) he's put together in 3 years. Last year he had a 5-game streak and the year before didn't do it consecutively a single gosh darn time. I had the expectation that any time he put up a 30-point game he'd stink the next game, like in last year's play-in, but this is interesting, despite it being Meaningless March.
I was saying before the season they should have told Zach to stay home if they couldn't trade him, and let Coby keep the keys from last year.
I guess we can all decide on our own what is meaningless. As a Bulls fan, it is meaningful to me to see our young players get better. It's meaningful to me to see our vets that will be on expiring contracts play well to increase their trade value. It's meaningful to me that we will get to see Josh, Matas and Coby in the post-season, and hopefully for multiple games.
I am not delusional about our chances, but it would be great to see if we could win a game or two against the Cavs.
If you want to be grumpy and say it's costing us a 3% chance to get Cooper Flagg, I get it, but I'm not with you on that. I like the way the Bulls are playing and want to see more.
I don't think there's any meaning on the vets increasing trade value because the Bulls won't trade them (partially because they don't understand trade value)
I also would be pretty surprised if other teams all of a sudden felt urged to give up real value for the likes of Vooch, Huerter, Collins based off a March surge in a system that's inflating numbers basically across the board. Jones kinda fit into this too though obviously he's a FA and not under contract, but the guy was shooting almost 60% with the Bulls before he went down.
the Coby/Giddey stuff is obviously way more meaningful, and the question of course is just how much they can sustain over a full season, with increased scouting/attention, etc. We saw Coby White pull a somewhat lesser version of this just last season for 2 months after Zach went down before he turned back into a pumpkin (outside of a few games, like the Hawks play-in game) to end the season and to start this season (again, some gems here and there but overall just kinda whatever). Giddey has had Mickey Mouse March's the last 3 seasons now, though again, like Coby, THIS is better than we've ever seen him over a longer stretch of time.
The assumption here is their actual long-term level is somewhere in between the trash/stagnation we saw to start the season and the insane All-Star level production we've seen the last month or so. What does that actually mean for long-term contracts/future success of the team? I have no fucking idea. The Bulls as a team are playing so far out of their minds right now (and it's on both ends in the 4th quarter, to truly unbelievable degrees) that it's hard to really peg anything.
They certainly are playing a fun brand of basketball though and I will not begrudge fans for enjoying it given the dogshit Chicago sports fans have put up with for years now, but there still needs to be a lot more proving to do before it's truly meaningful.
It's pretty clear we won the Lavine trade. Many pundits are now saying we won the Giddey trade as well. I would really like to see Giddey in the playoffs against the Cavs.
We only win the Giddey trade if Caruso doesn't fulfill his defensive stopper role in the playoffs. There's no way to say we won that trade if Caruso helps them win a championship and we didn't ask a higher price for what was a clear championship outcome.
Hard to say the Bulls "won" a trade where the other team is going to win 65+ games with a historically great point differential while possibly winning a title and the guy they got is arguably the most impactful non-big defender in the NBA (Caruso is 1st in DEPM) while the guy they traded was going to be moved to the bench.
Giddey has to help lead the Bulls to anything of significance first before we can say they won it, but it's looking better than before.
Caruso has only played 900 minutes though. It's hard to be impactful if you are not on the floor. I like Caruso and I hope he is healthy for the playoffs and helps the Thunder get to the Finals.
Giddey is having a very good EPM year himself. Overall he's at the 88th percentile, which puts him roughly in the top 75 NBA starters. And his defense grades out as average, which is a big improvement from what most people expected.
And he's still only 22, he's going to get better.
yeah Steph Noh was looking at the Giddey numbers and at the start of the season Giddey was like 5th percentile for defense but has gotten up to more average level. The Bulls' defense in general being elite in 4th quarters of late might be the most shocking thing about all of this! Think there's a fair amount of shooting variance luck here but also just a testament to playing hard at this time of year and not mailing it in.
Giddey hasn't drawn a single charge all season
he no longer is like don't-sign-him-at-any-price bad like he was to begin the year, but he still shouldn't be paid like a starter due to his limitations that aren't going to improve with age/experience
so like a 6th or 7th man change-of-pace guard making MLE?
No, and definitely no, to LaVine and Caruso trades, but it doesn't really apply because those players are better than their current veterans that are just salary flotsam. These guys on expirings are more akin to Vuc, who nobody wanted or at least not to AK's absurd asking price
A mid 1st round pick for Lavine is a clear win. In the offseason we were all thinking we would need to give up a pick to dump him.
I'd say Dalen Terry has increased his value and justified another year of development minutes. His 4th quarter defense on Jamal Murray was the type of annoying, get-off-me defense that he's capable of, and 4 for 4 from 3 from Terry brings him to 38%(!!!) on the season.
Indeed it's not quite clear what we're missing from Tre Jones being out.
Probably the improvement I believe in the least, but it's crazy how much he, Matas and Giddey improved their shots. Peter Patton is a miracle worker.
The best realistic case for a while is that the Bulls pursue pointlessness in their cheap and risk averse way, where they don’t deal future picks and don’t lard up the cap sheet with overpaid veterans for a while, while Karnisovas’ and Donovan’s contracts term out. Paying Giddey $20-25 million a year to lard up the box score is fine. This team has never committed to renting cap space for picks. Convincing yourself Coby is going to become an All Star and giving him $40+ million must be avoided.
Donovan is gonna get an extension (and we'll know about it sometime in 2027)
More likely than not.
hypothetically, what would a team over the cap offer the Bulls in a sign-and-trade for Giddey on a $25M/yr deal? a $30M/yr deal?
why don't we hear a single rumor about another team lining things up to pursue Josh Giddey this offseason? It's only talk of "well AK is an idiot, and traded for the guy, so he'll get paid"
No market for Giddey or any other RFA
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2025/03/bontemps-windhorsts-latest-cap-room-nets-wolves-fas-connelly.html
I can't believe this Overton Window shift for Giddey where the Bulls will be 'insulting' and scare FAs if they don't proactively give him a huge contract. Didn't we learn from Vuc and the last 25 years that doesn't matter? Especially for clearly non-star players like Giddey?
Giddey's QO is $11M
That is the 'risk' of telling him to go get an offer. If he doesn't get anything too far above that he'll take a one year deal and be unrestricted FA in 2026
To which...would that be so bad? Bulls would still have bird rights, and likely cap room anyway. Other teams will also have cap room but are the Bulls really 'afraid' Giddey will have some monster year where he's offered a max or something?
I used to believe and it was widely accepted that Zach LaVine would find his level when he was on a team with better players. While the talent in the line-up of Sacramento isn't blindingly bright it's still the best talent he's been around since arguably the 35 Glorious Games of Lonzo and the raw talent on the T-Wolves when he was drafted. And he is not good. His shooting percentages are fine, he's a human turnover but he was that here too, but you look at that thing out there and it's really hard to convince yourself he's more valuable than a bog standard Buddy Hield or Donte DiVincenzo to Sacramento. He's on another level of athleticism and skill from those guys, but they do what you need, Zach only sometimes does that and he does a whole bunch of other stuff you probably don't but are paying for anyway.
I came to appreciate Zach for the player he was. He tried his best to make the most of the talent God gave him. But I'm happy he's not on the Bulls anymore.
And I guess good for him that he is back on the west coast, closer to home. The Kings always wanted him so maybe he can find a fit there at some point. It feels good to not be invested in that though.
The "problem" with Zach is that he's like the best "4th best guy on a good team" in the league. He's so good that he's mistaken for a 3rd best guy or even a 2nd best guy on his good days. Maybe he'd be the 3rd best guy on a good team with two all-NBA ball handlers who are also wing defenders.
This is amplified by the fact that he's just good enough that you think you can put the ball in his hands, but you really can't in an important situation. Again... this is what separates him from being a top tier guy.
Meant to add on to this that Zach benefits a lot from playing with a guy who has pretty good setup skills (Lonzo, and if we're being honest, Giddey) vs. being, himself, a poor-man's PG.
The real irony of the Kings trading for him is that they traded away Fox to get him, so they sort of negated the upside of getting Zach.
Zach + Fox would have been interesting, at least. Zach/Demar/Sabonis is a show we've seen before
Fox doesn't have great setup skills himself
the Kings problem is that they play in the West. if they were in the East, they'd be able to tell the Reinsdorfs how well they are doing
also AK is going to trade for Sabonis so we'll see how he works with Giddey ::weeping::
I think the thing about Lavine is that he's a really good shooter at all levels, an exciting athlete, and he's actually got a pretty nice set of moves he can showcase on any given night. When he's cooking, he can score with the best of them.
All of that feels like there might be an elite player in there somewhere. But he's got horrible instincts and a lousy motor, so he's always sabotaging games with boneheaded decisions or by giving up on plays. Tragically, those are the things that he brings night in and night out.
Lakers win a grueling game in Indianapolis on a last second shot. SOMEHOW they will be tired in Chicago the next night. Maybe due to BillyBall, who can really say
26-44 fourth quarter for the Lakers including a total pants-shitting final minute. Perfection.
Holy shit the final moments of this Bulls/Lakers game is crazy.
Full vid! Truly insane stuff, ya gotta laugh
https://bsky.app/profile/stephnoh.bsky.social/post/3llfsplikas2d
shout-out to Bulls Jay, long-time chronicler of Bulls bullshit luck:
> If we narrow this down to just last 7 games since start of road trip, Bulls 4th-quarter shooting numbers are truly unbelievable. The WORST percentage is Coby White at 48.6% (not counting THT's 1 miss) and EVERY player is over 40% from 3 except for Zach Collins and his 0/2 (and he's 6/8 on 2s). And again, the Bulls are shooting like this in 4th quarters while their opponents are bricking everything in sight. Bulls opponents during this stretch are shooting 40% overall and 26% from 3. It's a perfect storm.
https://bsky.app/profile/bullsjay.bsky.social/post/3llgtec7b4s2e
Yeah…I’m willing to give a lot of credit to these guys and Billy for punching above their weight like this but this 4th quarter stuff this month is SO extreme/outlier that the regression, whether that’s this season or next, is probably gonna be rough. Like almost every rotation guy shooting 60+% from 3 in 4th quarters while opponents make a quarter of their 3s (it’s under 23% in the last 11 games) is just pure silliness. But they’re playing a fun brand of basketball so let it ride.
Here’s a funny fact:
The Bulls have won 9 of their last 11 games, have been putting up ridiculous shooting numbers, and STILL have the worst point differential of any play-in team in either conference.
Can’t wait for that gentleman’s sweep in the first round of the playoffs and that 15th overall pick!
They have the worst point differential of any play-in team in either conference during that 11-game stretch? Or you're just trying to say this recent hot streak hasn't really affected their point differential for the season?
The latter.
This hot streak has elevated their overall season from “embarrassingly bad” to just “normal bad”.
Remember how Nikola Mirotic was a consistently below average player who performed the best in March when other teams were injured or not trying very hard? AK has basically built the team version of Mirotic.
That means 7 post season Bulls games. I will take that.
From your keyboard to AK's annual report to ownership
I was very critical of AKME for the Caruso/Giddey trade, their chronic lack of activity, and their waiting too long to dump Zach or DeRozan. But whether they saw something in Giddey, Matas, or lucked into something, I have to give props. This team looks like it finally has an identity. Patrick Williams will always be closer to a bust than worthy of the 4th overall pick, and he is even making real contributions at the moment.
A core of White-Giddey-Matas with contributions from Pat, Huerter, and Ayo is not a bad start. They need to find a strong interior presence on the offensive and defensive ends of the floor, but this team looks better than completely lost for the first time since at least 2021.
While it might suck to win out of a better lottery pick, I don't think we can discount the impact of consistently winning against good teams like the Lakers, Nuggets, and Pacers can be. The kids need confidence at some point, and there are finally some modest returns of it on display.
“A core of White-Giddey-Matas with contributions from Pat, Huerter, and Ayo is not a bad start.”
It wouldn’t be a bad start if all of those guys were really young with years remaining on rookie contracts. But that’s not the case.
Coby has been in the league for 6 years, on his second contract, and will be looking for a big raise with his third contract.
Giddey is looking for a massive payday this summer.
Pat is on a second contract that’s paying him more than he’s worth.
If you financially commit to this group, it wouldn’t be AK’s start…it would be THE team for the foreseeable future. That’s the problem. That’s not good enough.
A fundamental problem with the 'young guys but with experience' model
There's a lot of talent in the league. I'd put that 'core' still in the bottom five, though looking better than in January only clearly better than Utah, Brooklyn, Washington. On par with Portland and Charlotte. And three of those teams are likely going to boost above the Bulls after the draft (at least whoever gets Flagg)
Yeah, I don't know how you could like that core for anything. It's like the 3rd, 4th, 5th pieces to a good young team and Coby only has 1 yr left at a discount and Giddey might get overpaid this summer. It's missing the most important stuff.
that core is not anywhere near good enough. That's a perennial 38 win team unless you think Matas can become a top 20 guy which I don't. I think he will be pretty damn good and maybe he could become a perennial All-star one day but who knows, he's not a sure thing at all even with some of the flashes that we have seen.
Pat is a net negative now, Huerter is just a guy and as much as I like Ayo, he is a 6th man for a contender or a 5th starter if you have multiple All-star type dudes in your lineup
I have not watched a single Bulls game this season and yet this team continues to infuriate me. I’d equate this run to when Mirotic came back in 2017 from a mysterious facial fracture and ruined their chances at Luka. This team even at its very best still is a joke. Now an outlier run threatens so set the Bulls up for years of mediocrity. Again.
Josh Giddey can do what he wants in March but the playoffs are an entirely different beast. In the same way Antonio Blakeney could dominate the G-league yet sucked at an NBA level, Giddey is nothing more than a bench player on a contending team. Anyone remember Montrezl
Harrell winning 6th man of the year and immediately getting dumpstered in the playoffs? Any remaining Bulls fan is so desperate for any modicum of hope that they’ll buy into this schlock.
The Bulls have shown that winning titles is not important ever since they gutted the bench mob in 2012. From GarPax to AKME, they’re interested in keeping their job rather than actually setting the team up for success. As long as the team brings in their typical revenue, nothing will change. There will always be those who are too naive to see this, Bulls fans fiercely defended the Vucevic and DeRozen trades at the time and yet the obvious criticisms were totally right. Reinsdorf has no interest in titles and it seeps into every crevice of the team. Now in 2025 the Bulls are facing a crossroads and it seems they are locking themselves into being the face of the play-in for years to come.
we know all these things, can't we just enjoy a good run?
As long as AK and the Bulls PR+fan-content industrial complex are willingly NOT knowing this, then no. Or at least it makes it difficult.
I'm trying to enjoy it and cry about the Giddey contract only after it happens
I am not sure how many fans are buying the Giddey hype. I wouldn't pay him more than $12 mil/year to be a ballhandler off the bench but I'm sure the idiots in charge will give him triple that because he's a TRIPLE DOUBLE MACHINE.
Regardless, I was glad when they got Demar and don't regret it today, even though it all amounted to nothing. He was more fun to watch than anyone they've had since D-Rose. This organization over the last 15 years is an absolute snoozefest.
DeMar as an individual player is fun to watch. DeMar as a team player is not. He doesn't play a game that is conducive to team success.
I think Giddey is probably worth more than $12 million a year, but definitely not more than $20 million.
My guess is he won't get many offers on the open market which means the Bulls should be able to play hardball with him. They need to do what they did with Coby and Ayo and bring him back on a short deal at an aggressive price. I'm thinking 3 years at $45 million or something like that.
I realize that. The Bulls don't have many guys who 'play a game that is conducive to team success' over the timeframe I mentioned, which is why they sucked then, now and will suck next year. I've gone from someone who watched 60+ games per season to someone who watches zero. Demar delayed that slide for a minute is all I'm saying.
the Raptors with DeMar were pretty successful, they just had to go up against a LeBron still in his prime
These last two games are exactly why you should not want the Bulls to go all in on this core.
In a home game against another play-in team (the Mavericks), Giddey followed up his half-court buzzer beater with a triple-single and 25% from the floor.
Last night, the Bulls played a legitimately great team that’s been trying all season and they lost by almost 30.
By the way, the Heat have now won 5 straight and the Bulls are back down to the 10th seed.
This shouldn’t be complicated. Let Giddey walk this offseason. Build around Buzelis and whoever you draft this offseason. Trade Vuc for whatever you can get. End this perennial play-in silliness.
We're at the point where it's not even like "Here's what the clever move is, am I not clever for thinking it up too?" We're at "Here's the most obvious fucking move that they're somehow bungling again."
The Sixers have more talent on the bench than Chicago has had in the last 10 years and in a month have gone from surrendering a top-8 protected to being just outside the top 4. They nearly have a 50/50 chance of winding up there just on present lottery odds (which can still improve), and a 1/10 chance of getting the #1 overall.
Karnisovas has set a high standard but this is easily the most tactically idiotic thing he's done here. The past two years you could argue that a team full of veterans wouldn't sit. You'd be wrong, but you could fairly argue that.
I watched far more games than expected this year and not one since, idk, early February? So whatever players are doing is beyond me, but I feel like my unique vantage point as a human being who can dress myself tells me that they're doing it in the wrong fucking uniform.
As we all know, this is ultimately a Reinsdorf problem. They’ve not only allowed this behavior from their front office, they’ve encouraged it!
AK understands the sad assignment: Be relevant in the cheapest and laziest way possible. In today’s league, that means be a perennial play-in team.
Lucky for AK, it doesn’t matter that he’s not good at his job, because it doesn’t require a good front office to build a 37 win team.
The Reinsdorfs have figured out how to consistently make money from the team:
1) Never pay the luxury tax. That earns them roughly $10 million a year (since 2020, anyway).
2) Refuse to tank. No matter how bad your team is, there are plenty of winnable games after the all-star break as all of the other teams start tanking. That should get you enough wins to get you comfortably into the play-in (post-season basketball!) which turns fans out, and allows you to point to your late-season record as a sign of hope for next season, which increases next year's season ticket sales.
3) Do not speak to the media. The front office wouldn't be down with this plan if that had talent, intelligence, or pride, so your best bet it to maintain radio silence and hope nobody notices.
We're going to be stuck with AK for a long time...
It's probably silly to make the distinction, but I'm not sure Reinsdorf's completely allergic to tanking. I mean the team has done it before, several times, once just 5 years ago. Did he change his mind? Because counting Lauri, the Bulls picked in the top 10 for 4 years in a row. They were terrible, and the few free agents they signed were mostly short-term deals meant to goose the box office.
The playin isn't getting them much revenue, and with the team off TV for a million people, probably isn't much of a boost to their ad revenue either.
He's certainly allowed this, perhaps even encouraged this mentality, though.
I agree, I think if AK said they wanted/needed to tank they'd be open to it. Could lower payroll even more!
but this dumbass thinks he's building something, and told ownership as such, so he can't go back and say 'oops'
I think that gives them too much credit. They can make money just by being in the league and in Chicago. I don't think the season ticket base rises or falls on this 'competitiveness'
what they do beyond that only limits things, but you're correct that it doesn't matter as long as it's not a multi-season embarrassment and somehow AK keeps getting away with being one by convincing the people who have to cover the team that it's not
Is building a 37 win team the easiest kind to build? There's a million ways to get there- mediocre resource allocation, talent development, roster deployment, etc. I'd say that scans. It takes execution to be really good or really bad.
And the Bulls were down by 40 like halfway through the third when the Thunder decided to rest all of their starters for the rest of the game.
For reasons most people who follow this blog would agree with, it may not matter what AKME do, but I wouldn’t be thrilled if they traded Coby for LaMelo Ball. From everything I’ve read, LaMelo is just empty stats - more entertaining perhaps than Zach LaVine, but no more efficient and no D. If we could combine LaMelo’s physical talent with Lonzo’s brain and instincts, we’d have a superstar, but obviously that’s not an option. At least Coby puts forth effort.
James Johnson is still in the league. Holy shit.
funny to hear the loaded questions of the Raptors "winning culture" versus the Bulls. The former has a GM that won the freaking NBA title with that franchise. What has AK ever proven to be a successful message towards winning? Billy Donovan has at least won 2 college titles, and it's not his fault he has to be up there 3 times a week spouting this stuff, but his career with this lot has him only looking to break the new congressional filibuster record (TOPICAL HUMOR)