Are the Bulls being patient or complacent? I think we know the answer

Free Agency update!

The Bulls beat media pisses me off, routinely, and I can’t even call them out individually because they’re either paid shills, or have little chance to get inside information¹, or neither but that one reporter is too stupid to interpret.

It is not my favorite thing to do, but I am forced to argue against “informed consensus” in this case, and that is the narrative that the Bulls are more active this offseason. This media narrative actually started at the last trade deadline, where the team stopped at a single trade but made sure to tell everyone about “groundwork” for future moves, and we know that particular word was used by team sources because every media member used that same term.

Even if true that they are more engaging on trade calls, this is certainly a case of activity not equaling accomplishment. So days into Free Agency, what I wrote in my free agency primer mostly held true, and some sure-to-be-dumb moves simply haven’t happened yet.

Bulls free agency watch (for them to do something stupid)

Reminder, this is what Marc Eversley said, in public(!), in response to a a question of what fans’ should look forward to next year:

“I would look at how we end the season this past year, 15-5 down the stretch… Giddey, White, Huerter, Matas, Vooch, those guys all logged big minutes. Those guys are all coming back. They’re all going to be with us. Now, we layer in guys like Patrick Williams, Jalen Smith, Ayo Dosunmu is coming back from injury, Zach Collins as nice addition at the trade deadline.”

I don’t know how more plainly Eversley and Arturas Karnisovas can say it, and how more obvious ownership can agree: they are satisfied with this team.

Notice two names missing from that list of “guys”² , Lonzo Ball and Tre Jones. Those two have been the totality of Bulls activity this offseason, with Ball being traded away in another losing-value transaction, and Jones retained with a unobjectionable-yet-pointless 3 year, $24M contract.

While thankfully the worst fears weren’t realized with Josh Giddey’s contract talks, I am still skeptical due to this groups history: it’s likely they already agreed upon some too-rich extension, and are simply waiting to announce/leak it until the holiday out of fear of embarrassment.

And everyone else is extremely likely to return as well, because the Bulls:

1. like all their players more than the rest of the league does

2. are uninterested in non-player assets

3. “full roster”

I suppose it’s a bit interesting reporting that the Jones signing in particular means more influence from Billy Donovan when it comes to personnel. It is already an outsized influence when your front office is repeatedly saying they need to acquire players to fit a ‘style’ when they don’t have any star players yet that would (should) dictate that style.

Billy plays ten “guys”, and while there was a youth movement to end last season that was more out of injury necessity than anything. Usually the incumbent gets their spot back when they return…though I do hope beyond Bulls-reasoning that Matas Buzelis has leapfrogged Patrick Williams.

So here’s the full roster, extremely unlikely to change before the regular season:

Starters: Giddey/Coby/Okoro/Matas/Vuuuuuuuc

Bench: Ayo, Huerter, Pat, Zach Collins, Tre Jones

Out of rotation (until injury): Dalen, Julian, Jalen, Jevon

GLeague: Essengue, two-way guys (maybe Julian)

We have all training camp to sob into our hands that this is the 2025-26 Bulls, so in the meantime this crushing realization hasn’t stopped yours truly from pointlessly conceiving of trade ideas.

I was surprised by the Lonzo Ball trade, because while I was correct the Bulls have no concept of value or leverage, I thought that would create stalemates in trade talks, not just drastically lowering the value of their cherished players.

So maybe it is possible that the Bulls will admit defeat and trade Nikola Vucevic for a lot lower of a price than they could’ve had last deadline. All reports were that they were holding out for first rounders and expiring money, and had a package more akin to second rounders and some 2025-26 money. In the time since, Vuc’s value has only shrank, which everyone (except the ‘groundwork’ gang) knew was going to happen.

If trying to predict, we should be baking in AK’s awful negotiating. Maybe, like in the Lonzo trade, the Bulls instead take on more 2025-26 money, or even 2026-27 money³, and get zero picks? Think Vuc to Boston for Anfernee Simons, or to the Heat for Terry Rozier. And never and draft picks, but the Bulls get their specialty: a young player with experience who isn’t particularly good, like Jaime Jaquez from Miami or Nic Claxton from the Nets.

I don’t think Ayo or Coby get moved, because they are already the kind of players the Bulls want. I would instead be less surprised if Ayo inks a contract extension⁴. Patrick Williams was also the kind of player the Bulls want, but if they don’t want him anymore they will be surprised to learn from other teams how they view his contract and how to use assets to mitigate that underwater value.

If making a way-less-likely prediction, I am fond of the fantasy where they instead do a ‘buy’ trade of a young player with experience, like Walker Kessler of the tanking Utah Jazz⁵.

Again, this just keeps the pain at bay for a couple weeks. The very likely reality is they think this team is good, or at least tell Michael Reinsdorf it is, and for another offseason the whirlwinds of NBA transactions do not touch Chicago.

1. not entirely their fault, the organization operates under superlative combination of secrecy and irrelevance

2. a very loaded term, and a pejorative one from my perspective

3. 2026, their big summer of cap flexibility, now adds Jones and Okoro as guaranteed contracts to already-underwater deals with Jalen Smith and Patrick Williams

4. Coby White functionally cannot extend off of his current contract, but Ayo has way way less bargaining power after last season

5. they said they wouldn’t tank anymore, but they really meant they wouldn’t do DNP-rest shenanigans. They are instead giving away anybody useful.