the Bulls could (hilariously) miss the play-in

nothing matters, so root for something funny?

I’m pulling an Arturas Karnisovas in this post, taking too much from a small sample size. We have seen as recently as earlier this week that AK is buying in to the most recent win streak¹ , and therefore may be buying (or more likely, standing pat) at the trade deadline next week.

This is an important distinction: whether they’re merely trying to be ‘competitive’, or actually trying to make the playoffs. As is the case in a conference where nobody is that good and several teams aren’t even trying, there is nothing they can do to no longer be In The Hunt. But if they are deluding themselves into thinking their postseason seed matters more than how good - and any closer to relevance - they are, Bulls management may be getting antsy.

Because the Charlotte Hornets are on their own small sample size run of a 5 game winning streak to bring them within 2.5 games of Chicago (who have fallen to tenth place behind Atlanta after 3 losses this week). When zooming out they have almost a Bulls-in-March2025-esque run:

I believe it’s pretty clear that since changing ownership² , The Charlotte Hornets may not have as much banal sub-averageness as the Bulls but look to be the smarter team with a better foundation of young talent. When all three of LaMelo Ball (24.5 years old), Brandon Miller (23.2) and Kon Knueppel (20.5) play, they are legit good. So perhaps merely sitting one of them - LaMelo and Miller get injured a lot - is enough for them to strategically lose and get another piece in this summer’s draft. But if they want to see where this goes, they can overtake the Bulls.

Because the Bulls ‘depth’ is once again being exposed as only a certain kind: while the Bulls do have depth to where unlike the Hornets they don’t have 3 must-have players³, they cannot withstand injury to 3-4 members of their rotation. Or to put it in the inverse way: they absolutely cannot have Patrick Williams, Dalen Terry, and Julian Phillips getting heavy minutes.

The Bulls are extremely vulnerable in the frontcourt, especially with Billy Donovan employing, and having success with, 2-big lineups to help with rebounding. Zach Collins is currently out with turf toe, that injury and Collins’s injury history has me skeptical he’ll contribute the rest of the year.

I feel a need to break paragraphs to emphasize how important Jalen Smith has been. This year’s advanced metrics MVP (AMMVP) has especially blossomed after Donovan has played him at power forward. Before Thursday’s game (a loss where it took another collapse by an opponent to bring it to a single possession) he was listed on the injury report with a calf injury, and then left that game after halftime with that same injury…that is potentially a HUGE problem.

Combine that with 2 (not just 1, they can handle that) of their guards being out of that Miami game with hamstring issues, and the Bulls could be in for a very rough stretch.

A not-useless front office would perhaps be looking for a fringe move to get a playable big. Getting a replacement-level option who maybe goes on a hot streak could make potentially a huge difference (insomuch as any of these games matter) as it’d mean not playing all their draft busts.

But, again: even if they do their usual (nothing), and faceplant it will mean little in the grand scheme of things. They will always be within striking distance of a technically-it’s-the-postseason berth. They will always be in discussion over their standing versus Charlotte, Atlanta, and Miami instead of real contention, and at least a couple of those other teams are in Giannis trade rumors. It should have no influence over their trade deadline motivations. But we know not to assume that.

1. if you aren’t paying attention: crushed AD-less Mavs, clutch win against Lauri-less Jazz, tanking Nets, crushed Kawhi-less Clippers, a Timberwolves meltdown (though good they were even close), another clutch win over the Celtics who played a 2-OT game night before

2. hmmm…

3. or the Bucks, who have a single must-have player and now that they don’t they’re toast