Hey, long time reader, first time commenter. Um, have you ever thought about writing about a different team or league? I really like your work and how you think, but, I don't know, it just gets depressing. The Bulls are a solved problem: they are no longer interested in being relevant. I pop in every so often to see if it's changed...
While you argue for that fact in a really compelling way, I hope this isn't offensive, it would be so much more interesting to know what you see and think (at some level of depth) about literally any other team.
I guess that's kind of the problem, isn't it? I assume this isn't Matt's full-time job, which means he likely doesn't have time to follow multiple teams as closely as he does the Bulls. He has such deep insight into this team and its management because he's followed them so closely for decades now. I'm not sure he could go and give that insight on another team without first spending years closely watching them.
I agree. I guess I'm saying that I would also read Matt's work if it was a part of building 'deep insight' into another team--basically every other team in the nba has more interesting problems or a more interesting approach--or about something else entirely.
Yeah, I rarely read these hopeless, irreverent articles, talking down the Bulls management. The cup is never reported as half full because they don't grovel in front of the media. As to Ayo, you left out that he's also great in transition and in cutting to the basket in the half court. AKME, please extend him; teams need role players. There's demand for White but the other teams view teams like the Bulls the way the Yankees treated the KC Athletics, a farm club, rubes in flyover country. I wouldn't gift them players either; go and pound sand. A young core is starting to develop. Which player have you selected to start finding fault with?
Ayo probably values himself around 7mil (his current yearly pay) but the Bulls value him less, what he doesn't know is how much the league values him. His current career is sliding into Jevon Carter territory, steadfast, unimpactful, professionalism with a 3pt shot that needs space to be effective. Jevon Carter also got paid 7 mil though.
For Ayo I can see sliding onto a roster at the vet min for a year before signing a more lucrative contract. The contradiction you rightfully point out is that they love him, they say they love him, and yes, he's a vibe-y, experienced enough of a player that for 7 mil he belongs at the end of a mid-tier rotation.
For Coby, oh lord how are they gonna score without him, how are they gonna be plucky try hard team without him.
You shouldn't have put Ayo in in same sentence as Carter. Ayo can defend four positions, or so I've read. At 6'5 he's a much more versatile player. The Bulls tend to overpay players they like. You lo-ball players waiting for an offer. I'll make the same unfair argument others made against Zach: "Coby never won a Championship and he's taking minutes and shots away from younger players." But he's in demand; I like him but I'd trade him.
The comparison is more about career trajectory than capability. Carter has earned 29 mil over his career... Ayo 15 mil, but Ayo exists in a different cap era than Carter.
Ayo's plus/minus is the reason the Bulls are holding off and why other teams might as well. His on/off numbers are very bad, consistently very bad. It doesn't match the eye test at all, but that's why we use numbers, to anchor our perceptions.
I see your point on Ayo's advanced stats. Coby's look subpar also, if I'm not mistaken. But I'd say that we use the eye test to anchor our perceptions. I like 'em both. They'd get more in a trade for Coby. Ayo is cheaper. In time, Josh, Noa and Matas could occupy the 1, 2 and 3 positions, or at least get the majority of the offensive touches. Trade Coby to a team that needs a starting combo guard, if the offer is good. Keep Ayo as a Swiss Army knife off the bench. IMO.
I agree completely that Coby would yield a higher return, but I'm not sure if he's a someone I'd get rid of. Without LaVine, 2 half season stretches over 2 years, he's proven to be an efficient volume scorer, which is a rare thing. He's entering his basketball prime as a 25 year-old, he's coachable, and he plays within systems without needing a system tailored to him. That's a rare combination of traits and I think the Bulls take a risk letting him hit the open market and letting him put up a full season of scoring in these conditions.
A full non-LaVine season at age 25 in a high tempo free flowing offense will have us looking at Coby differently.
I fully agree with you but ... one more thing. He works so hard for his shots, I'm afraid he'll blow out a tendon or wear out at a young age. Age-wise he's in the timeline. If he's so valuable, I'd want the great, young return the Bulls would get to even better match their 21-and-under corps. Not the same thing but they traded Oakly for Cartwright.
Ayo is weird bc he looks he should be theultimate glue guy. If he could get his 3 pt shooting to be consistently 37/38%, he could maybe be a Derrick White type guy but his advanced stats are just so bad. A definitive eye test guy bc he looks like a "winning" player when you watch.
Huh - I must be higher on Ayo than most. I'd feel pretty good about locking him up for 3-4 years at something like $10m/yr. I also don't think the Carter comparison is particularly apt.
I am a big fan of Ayo, and happy he has carved out a career in the league. Good for him.
That being said,I would 10 times rather have Smithh on the roster for $9 million than Ayo. I'm trolling a bit here but there are multiple veteran point guards who just signed for the minimum contracts that can do for us what Ayo does.
Oh sure, there will be room. Right now we only have 6 players with contracts guaranteed for next year. (Giddey, Williams, Okoro, Smith, Jones and Essengue.) We'll surely pick up Buzelis' option, and hold onto Coby's rights, so that's 8. Our 1st round draft pick would be 9. So we've got at least 5 more players to add or re-sign.
Phillips (Club option) and Terry and Olbrich (both RFA) should be back. They could easily sign two veteran UFA during the offseason. At the trade deadline there could also be some moves, but nobody ever predicts the trades teams will make. A lot is riding on Buzelis, Essengue and the 2026 pick.
Maybe, we'll see. Bulls will probably have $50 million of cap space. I doubt they will be protecting any of those players, because it would cut into their cap space. Depending on how their off-season goes they might come back around and look to re-sign some of the other players, including Ayo.
Of course, it also depends on how everyone plays this year. Right now none of those guys look like keepers, but that may change over the course of the season.
If the team doesn't pay the luxury tax but they want some high priced players, they need some low priced players. Julian Phillips makes $2.2mil this season and will make $2.4mil next year if they exercise their Club Option. They will. Lachlan Olbrich is on a 2-way contract and he's likely to spend most of the season in the G-League. They'll match any offer he gets. Dalen Terry could turn into a sign-and-trade but then they get a player in return who's lower paid. It still adds up to three roster spots, IMO. Unless they're included in some trades.
4 for 40 team option 4 year is the right outcome. Otherwise, trade him.
The biggest benefit for signing Ayo is forcing Arturas to trade Coby before they give Coby $140 million over 4 years which would be instantly one of the worst deals in the league.
Well, right now I'd say Ayo is the 5th guard on the Bulls. But he is still only 25, the same age as Coby, Tre Jones and Jalen Smith. Let's hope he shows enough this year to be worth a contract like that.
The obvious thing Ayo has over that group is that he combines those attributes into one body. He doesn’t shoot as well as Huerter, but Huerter can’t defend. He doesn’t defend as well as Okoro, but Okoro can’t dribble, pass, or shoot. He doesn’t pass as well as Jones, but Jones doesn’t really shoot and can’t guard anyone other than a point guard.
I’ve maintained, forever, that the worst thing the Bulls can do is just allow Ayo and Coby to just play out their contracts. Coby is a starting caliber player on a backups deal, and Ayo is a quality backup on a benchwarmer’s deal. These should have had significant trade value, but every day that passes gives them less value as the expiration date is that much closer and the Bulls won’t deal them because Coby has been the single greatest force in getting the 9 seed annually, the peak of their ambition.
Hey, long time reader, first time commenter. Um, have you ever thought about writing about a different team or league? I really like your work and how you think, but, I don't know, it just gets depressing. The Bulls are a solved problem: they are no longer interested in being relevant. I pop in every so often to see if it's changed...
While you argue for that fact in a really compelling way, I hope this isn't offensive, it would be so much more interesting to know what you see and think (at some level of depth) about literally any other team.
I guess that's kind of the problem, isn't it? I assume this isn't Matt's full-time job, which means he likely doesn't have time to follow multiple teams as closely as he does the Bulls. He has such deep insight into this team and its management because he's followed them so closely for decades now. I'm not sure he could go and give that insight on another team without first spending years closely watching them.
I agree. I guess I'm saying that I would also read Matt's work if it was a part of building 'deep insight' into another team--basically every other team in the nba has more interesting problems or a more interesting approach--or about something else entirely.
Matt is a fan of the Bulls, not other teams.
Hey don't speak for me!
Yeah, I rarely read these hopeless, irreverent articles, talking down the Bulls management. The cup is never reported as half full because they don't grovel in front of the media. As to Ayo, you left out that he's also great in transition and in cutting to the basket in the half court. AKME, please extend him; teams need role players. There's demand for White but the other teams view teams like the Bulls the way the Yankees treated the KC Athletics, a farm club, rubes in flyover country. I wouldn't gift them players either; go and pound sand. A young core is starting to develop. Which player have you selected to start finding fault with?
You are OG! Bob Cerv, Roger Maris, Bobby Shantz, Clete Boyer. Hopefully the KC general manager got a World Series ring.
Ayo probably values himself around 7mil (his current yearly pay) but the Bulls value him less, what he doesn't know is how much the league values him. His current career is sliding into Jevon Carter territory, steadfast, unimpactful, professionalism with a 3pt shot that needs space to be effective. Jevon Carter also got paid 7 mil though.
For Ayo I can see sliding onto a roster at the vet min for a year before signing a more lucrative contract. The contradiction you rightfully point out is that they love him, they say they love him, and yes, he's a vibe-y, experienced enough of a player that for 7 mil he belongs at the end of a mid-tier rotation.
For Coby, oh lord how are they gonna score without him, how are they gonna be plucky try hard team without him.
Players (and their agents) know that once you settle for short and low contracts, it's hard to get back out
The Bulls reportedly had a lot of discussions about Ayo with other teams. They should have a good idea what the league thinks.
If it's $7 mil per year, let's trade him.
You shouldn't have put Ayo in in same sentence as Carter. Ayo can defend four positions, or so I've read. At 6'5 he's a much more versatile player. The Bulls tend to overpay players they like. You lo-ball players waiting for an offer. I'll make the same unfair argument others made against Zach: "Coby never won a Championship and he's taking minutes and shots away from younger players." But he's in demand; I like him but I'd trade him.
The comparison is more about career trajectory than capability. Carter has earned 29 mil over his career... Ayo 15 mil, but Ayo exists in a different cap era than Carter.
Ayo's plus/minus is the reason the Bulls are holding off and why other teams might as well. His on/off numbers are very bad, consistently very bad. It doesn't match the eye test at all, but that's why we use numbers, to anchor our perceptions.
I see your point on Ayo's advanced stats. Coby's look subpar also, if I'm not mistaken. But I'd say that we use the eye test to anchor our perceptions. I like 'em both. They'd get more in a trade for Coby. Ayo is cheaper. In time, Josh, Noa and Matas could occupy the 1, 2 and 3 positions, or at least get the majority of the offensive touches. Trade Coby to a team that needs a starting combo guard, if the offer is good. Keep Ayo as a Swiss Army knife off the bench. IMO.
I agree completely that Coby would yield a higher return, but I'm not sure if he's a someone I'd get rid of. Without LaVine, 2 half season stretches over 2 years, he's proven to be an efficient volume scorer, which is a rare thing. He's entering his basketball prime as a 25 year-old, he's coachable, and he plays within systems without needing a system tailored to him. That's a rare combination of traits and I think the Bulls take a risk letting him hit the open market and letting him put up a full season of scoring in these conditions.
A full non-LaVine season at age 25 in a high tempo free flowing offense will have us looking at Coby differently.
I fully agree with you but ... one more thing. He works so hard for his shots, I'm afraid he'll blow out a tendon or wear out at a young age. Age-wise he's in the timeline. If he's so valuable, I'd want the great, young return the Bulls would get to even better match their 21-and-under corps. Not the same thing but they traded Oakly for Cartwright.
Ayo is weird bc he looks he should be theultimate glue guy. If he could get his 3 pt shooting to be consistently 37/38%, he could maybe be a Derrick White type guy but his advanced stats are just so bad. A definitive eye test guy bc he looks like a "winning" player when you watch.
Huh - I must be higher on Ayo than most. I'd feel pretty good about locking him up for 3-4 years at something like $10m/yr. I also don't think the Carter comparison is particularly apt.
I am a big fan of Ayo, and happy he has carved out a career in the league. Good for him.
That being said,I would 10 times rather have Smithh on the roster for $9 million than Ayo. I'm trolling a bit here but there are multiple veteran point guards who just signed for the minimum contracts that can do for us what Ayo does.
When Collins and Heurter take pay cuts next year or are traded this year, there could be room for Ayo and Smith. Not to mention Vuc and Carter.
Oh sure, there will be room. Right now we only have 6 players with contracts guaranteed for next year. (Giddey, Williams, Okoro, Smith, Jones and Essengue.) We'll surely pick up Buzelis' option, and hold onto Coby's rights, so that's 8. Our 1st round draft pick would be 9. So we've got at least 5 more players to add or re-sign.
Phillips (Club option) and Terry and Olbrich (both RFA) should be back. They could easily sign two veteran UFA during the offseason. At the trade deadline there could also be some moves, but nobody ever predicts the trades teams will make. A lot is riding on Buzelis, Essengue and the 2026 pick.
Maybe, we'll see. Bulls will probably have $50 million of cap space. I doubt they will be protecting any of those players, because it would cut into their cap space. Depending on how their off-season goes they might come back around and look to re-sign some of the other players, including Ayo.
Of course, it also depends on how everyone plays this year. Right now none of those guys look like keepers, but that may change over the course of the season.
If the team doesn't pay the luxury tax but they want some high priced players, they need some low priced players. Julian Phillips makes $2.2mil this season and will make $2.4mil next year if they exercise their Club Option. They will. Lachlan Olbrich is on a 2-way contract and he's likely to spend most of the season in the G-League. They'll match any offer he gets. Dalen Terry could turn into a sign-and-trade but then they get a player in return who's lower paid. It still adds up to three roster spots, IMO. Unless they're included in some trades.
4 for 40 team option 4 year is the right outcome. Otherwise, trade him.
The biggest benefit for signing Ayo is forcing Arturas to trade Coby before they give Coby $140 million over 4 years which would be instantly one of the worst deals in the league.
Well, right now I'd say Ayo is the 5th guard on the Bulls. But he is still only 25, the same age as Coby, Tre Jones and Jalen Smith. Let's hope he shows enough this year to be worth a contract like that.
The obvious thing Ayo has over that group is that he combines those attributes into one body. He doesn’t shoot as well as Huerter, but Huerter can’t defend. He doesn’t defend as well as Okoro, but Okoro can’t dribble, pass, or shoot. He doesn’t pass as well as Jones, but Jones doesn’t really shoot and can’t guard anyone other than a point guard.
I’ve maintained, forever, that the worst thing the Bulls can do is just allow Ayo and Coby to just play out their contracts. Coby is a starting caliber player on a backups deal, and Ayo is a quality backup on a benchwarmer’s deal. These should have had significant trade value, but every day that passes gives them less value as the expiration date is that much closer and the Bulls won’t deal them because Coby has been the single greatest force in getting the 9 seed annually, the peak of their ambition.
It’s Bulls media day! Let’s see what dumb shit management says this year!
yup had to do it
https://www.blogabull.com/p/chicago-bulls-2025-media-day-looks