Zach LaVine trade door actually opens?

going from zero market to 'Nuggets pu pu platter' technically is an increase in trade value

Has your friendly BullsBlogger been proven wrong? I’ve been maintaining all season that there’s nothing Zach LaVine can do on the court this year (for this team) that would increase his trade value.

Even after playing well so far this season, and in a bit more marketable-to-other-teams fashion, there weren’t a lot of suitors even rising to logical speculation level, let alone rumor. Even the Lakers, logically a suitor if only because they’re historically dumb and desperate, were since said to be “not anticipated to be heavily in the mix”.

And then we received our first log on the hitherto dormant fire of Zach LaVine trade rumors: the Denver Nuggets showing ‘significant interest’.

But maybe that doesn’t mean I was wrong. Because I more specifically said LaVine can’t do anything to meaningfully raise his trade value. And this speculative offer from the Nuggets is not much, perhaps even still ‘negative’ value.

Based less on source reporting, and more simple process of elimination when looking at Denver’s salary structure and assets cache, we can kind of figure out what this trade offer is:

• Michael Porter Jr. has to be the centerpiece, and his salary is the same length as LaVine¹ , but roughly $8M less, and $13M less if LaVine doesn’t waive his trade kicker²

• Zeke Nnaji has a contract for ~$8M that runs even longer, with a player option in 2027-28. Nnaji is still young (just turned 24) but that is certainly a negative contract in terms of trade value

• Dario Saric was out of the rotation and now hurt too. Clearly Nuggets GM Calvin Booth and the Bulls’ Arturas Karnisovas (formerly of Denver) were trained similarly as Saric got a $5M player option for next year. Putting Saric in and sending back Torrey Craig ($2.8M, expiring) would be a trade win for the Nuggets.

• Bulls can also offer another small treat for the Nuggets in swapping Julian Phillips for DaRon Holmes. Holmes was just drafted in the 1st round, but tore his achilles tendon and is older than Phillips, so it’s reasonable to think Phillips is the better prospect at the moment, plus more importantly for Denver Phillips can play this season and has a smaller contract: $1.8M versus $3M for Holmes.

• Talen Horton-Tucker is also only $2M and can play for them in a pinch. Bulls will likely need roster spots anyway to make this trade, could throw him in. But Denver may prefer the own roster spot to go to a buyout guy on prorated minimum.

• Draft compensation-wise, the Nuggets have no firsts or seconds to offer. It’s entirely possible, despite how offensive this is to Zach LaVine fans (several write for Bulls websites), that the Nuggets are asking Chicago for picks. There is the less valuable asset of a pick swap, and you can bring in that Portland-owed lotto-protected pick too. This would require negotiating, and AKME has shown in their prior negotiations that they do not value draft picks even while ‘retooling’.

That Denver is even interested in LaVine at all means they see an on-court upgrade from Porter to LaVine as significant. That’s the biggest hurdle to clear, and if it’s because Zach played these 25 games particularly well (not merely proving to be healthy) then it was a good call by AKME to have LaVine feature so prominently in a re-tooling season.

But for the Bulls, this now is in their court. They can trade Zach LaVine. Are they willing to ‘lose’ a LaVine trade?

I am positing that question with the context that giving up one of their own first round picks is a red line that they could’ve crossed but won’t (and shouldn’t). And that obtaining a first would be such a clear win that they surely (surely!) wouldn’t turn that down. But would AKME be willing to take minor losses like Nnaji’s contract, higher payroll this season³, an adverse pick swap, sending second rounders or Julian Phillips?

You have to look at what a trade ‘win’ can mean, too. Here’s how I’d rank the many different priorities in both significance and urgency:

1. Breaking up LaVine’s contract into pieces you can trade later. Doesn’t have to be immediately re-routing MPJ to a third team (though his injury history likely means sooner the better) but even doing LaVine for MPJ+Nnaji makes you more flexible

2. Freeing up minutes and developmental opportunity for the other guards on the team. Any success this season, or more accurately almost-any, has been due to veteran play. MPJ himself is also young, but I don’t think has another level to ascend towards.

3. Being worse this season to improve lottery odds

I think many (or few, but prominent) feel that my number 3 should actually be top priority. To them, I’d say you should be imploring the Bulls to make this deal now even if means taking those minor losses.

But I disagree. Despite what the tank-brained fear and Zach himself has declared, the Bulls are not good. Now, it’s true they’re not (and never were going to be) a bottom five team, but they’ve been lucky in a variety of ways to get out of the bottom ten, even temporarily.

So I do think they should ultimately take any Denver offer⁴ , but can hold out until the deadline to see if they get a better one.

But even waiting is a risk, versus the extreme unlikelihood that LaVine plays this well for another couple-dozen games to the point where it makes teams think differently about him⁵. Again I’m ranking by urgency and priority:

1. LaVine gets hurt

2. Denver and other trade suitors’ desperation goes down

3. The Bulls win too many games before February

I don’t think the Bulls have the stomach to come to some non-League-aggrieving understanding where LaVine is shelved until a trade. And we know they don’t have the aptitude to actually improve the trade market through salesmanship and negotiation.

I can’t predict what AKME will do. Logic suggests they finally have it drilled into their heads that LaVine does not have much positive trade value and have to take a minor victory (or minor loss) for the good of the team’s future. But you know who also overrates veteran regular season performance at the expense of long-term potential-playoff success? AKME.

1. assuming LaVine is picking up $49M player option in Summer 2026 at age 31. He may not, but would more likely renegotiate/extend with the same team than head to free agency.

2. Maybe Zach waives it to go to a contender. And/Or because Klutch Sports Agency also represents Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon.

3. Surely they wouldn’t go into the tax, but are $4.5 under now. Plus, though it isn’t on their cap sheet, would be the ones writing the check for Zach’s trade kicker.

4. with the necessary (?) caveat that you do not give up a first!

5. essentially: these teams are not going to be swayed by any single game, even if it is a ‘high-profile audition’