In order for a team building strategy to work for the Bulls, it has to yield good results even when it's poorly executed. Since I am not aware of any strategy that can reliably do that, it follows that discussing team strategy is, even by sports chatter standards, kinda pointless.
Like, I was in favor of building a team around Jimmy. Then when he was traded and the team sucked, I was in favor of tanking and basically hated every move from Vucevic on. I later realized that, since they're going to do a shit job regardless of which door they open, then their direction doesn't really matter. They just gotta stop being bad at their jobs.
Honestly, I'd be stoked if the bulls made a move for any of the guys listed here (even trae!). The bar for roster moves has been set so low by this FO that I'd take basically anything at this point.
To go along with the article exercise. My preferences from each tier would be
1: Jaylen Brown
2: Jarrett Allen
3: Malcom Brogdon
After thinking about it. Surprisingly, Brogdon seems like he would be a really nice fit for the Bulls. If they can get a player disability exception for Lonzo.
No Giannis, no Joel and the Bulls somehow match up well against the Celtics. You never really know who's going to be out in the playoffs, it feels like there's a path here that the Bulls could actually do something. But Bulls gotta Bulls.
With the seemingly endless stream of talent coming in to the league every year, rebuilding becomes both easier and harder. Easier because there are more useful players out there; harder because every team now can fill their rosters with useful players, and so the margin between good and great is thinner. I've generally been more pro- management than the baseline sentiment here at BaB, but I think the amount of talent available in the league makes it harder than ever to find an edge. I don't have confidence that the current regime has anything like the sophistication to be better than their peers. And of course ownership doesn't care to try.
So sure, let's go get Jaylen Brown. He's good and feels underappreciated by the Boston org. But we need like 5 other good young guys to go with him that fit together synergistically to ever hope to challenge the top echelon of teams.
There's no use keeping DeMar IMO (despite YFBB thoughts) unless you plan to dump him at the NEXT mid-season trade deadline in a complete rebuild. The move is to get movable, aggregate-able contracts for him -- players that can keep you at a scrappy .500 but also position you to send them away for the next disgruntled superstar. You need the pieces to make that move. That should be AK's priority. If you do that well, you not only land a star but you have the depth to not wipe your self out (like the Suns this year) when you do the swap. THAT is the continuity play done right.
Any discussion about delusions should start with some self-analysis.
If you guys were to go over to Hoops Hype and look, they've got a thing where they rank various players "all-in-one" stats by how NBA teams actually respect them. The two top ranking systems are EPM and DARKO.
If you look at the Bulls, this is how they rate out:
DARKO EPM Avg Player
80 43 61.5. Zach LaVine Starter
76 56 66. Alex Caruso Starter
92 40 66 DeMar DeRozan Starter
86 174 130. Javonte Green Starter
62 208 135. Derrick Jones Jr. Starter
102 175 138.5 Andre Drummond Starter/Role
147 189 168. Coby White Starter/Role
201 153 177. Nikola Vucevic Role
258 242 250. Patrick Williams Role
267 235 251. Patrick Beverley Role
291 328 309.5 Dalen Terry Bench
406 305 355.5 Ayo Dosunmu Fringe/Bench
I'm not going to quibble about particular ranks, but I'm going to point out that especially for a team with a cheap ass owner, you can't afford to overpay:
1. Zach is a problem because he's paid the max and he's not even an all-star level player. I don't forsee him making an all-star game again.
2. Vuc rates out as not even a starting level player. For the love of god, do not pay this fucking guy $20M. Even $15M is an overpay.
3. Javonte is pretty irrelevant because he looks cooked.
4. Drummond absolutely dies if he plays more than about 15 minutes, so don't go thinking he's the answer to anything.
5. I do not imagine any team trading significant value for DeMar. I can at least imagine a team talking itself into Zach.
Hence, my plan would be:
1. Trade Zach for everything we can get if we get a Murray/Mitchell/Gobert type offer. Don't expect this though. Would trade DeMar for a middle first and no bad salary coming back. Don't expect that to happen either.
2. Trade Caruso for everything we can get for him. Maybe a young player and a single later pick.
3. S&T Vuc if possible. If not, let him walk and replace him with cheaper guys. Sign him only if basically for the MLE for two years.
4. Resign Coby
5. With Vuc likely gone, use the MLE, BAE, and DPE (likely because they won't cut bait on Lonzo) to fill in on bigs and shooting.
Best case scenario would be something like:
Vuc S&T for RoCo
Coby for MLEish money
Naz Reid
Vasilie Micic for the DPE
Settle up Portland pick for this year's #23 (Draft Leonard Miller)
Trade Caruso to Kings for picks # 24 and #38 (Draft Trayce Jackson Davis and Brandon Podzienski)
G- Coby, Micic, Ayo
G- Zach, Podzienski
F- DeMar, Pat, Terry
F- RoCo, Miller, DJJ
C- Naz Reid, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Drummond
That ain't gonna set the world on fire, but it'd be a step in the right direction.
While there's a ton of down in the dumps talk, honestly, there are some great suggestions here. If you could acquire a tier 2 and tier 1 player without giving up LaVine, DDR, or Williams, you probably have yourself a pretty good team. Let's say from tier 2 you get Jarrett Allen and from tier 3 you get Malcom Brogdon (though I think he might be more tier 2). You could start with:
PG - Brogdon
SG - LaVine
SF - DDR
PF - Williams
C - Allen
Perimeter defense is a bit lacking, but there's much better shooting than we currently start, and we add an elite interior defender. If you can manage to keep Caruso too, you can at least be competitive in the East. The real issue is salary. You are putting in 100mil into a starting lineup that probably doesn't win a championship, but they would be fun and probably pretty good.
trying to think of a team to take Lonzo's contract in return for more expensive players that are bad but not disabled
The Heat are interesting. Duncan Robinson's deal is nearly identical. Find a way to take Lowry ($29M, one year) to reduce MIA's 2023-4 cap number?
Oladipo is another $9.5M in dead money, though unlike Lonzo it's only for one year. Bulls also would acquire transfer rights to Shams reporting "optimism towards recovery"
Bulls problem is Lonzo contract. Worst in the league? Need to dump on a long term tank. Would Spurs take him for McDerrmot and Graham? Doubt it. Could we package with Caruso? That’s 30M some team would need to match by dumping even longer term contracts of non-playing garbage on us. Davis Bertans and Duncan Robinson come to mind…
Mikal Bridges, not sure where the Nets headed and they have lots of interesting starter fringe players. Seth Curry, Dinwiddie.
In order for a team building strategy to work for the Bulls, it has to yield good results even when it's poorly executed. Since I am not aware of any strategy that can reliably do that, it follows that discussing team strategy is, even by sports chatter standards, kinda pointless.
Like, I was in favor of building a team around Jimmy. Then when he was traded and the team sucked, I was in favor of tanking and basically hated every move from Vucevic on. I later realized that, since they're going to do a shit job regardless of which door they open, then their direction doesn't really matter. They just gotta stop being bad at their jobs.
Honestly, I'd be stoked if the bulls made a move for any of the guys listed here (even trae!). The bar for roster moves has been set so low by this FO that I'd take basically anything at this point.
Thibs watch:
Knicks hold Cleveland to 79 in a playoff game. In 2023. The man is a menace.
To go along with the article exercise. My preferences from each tier would be
1: Jaylen Brown
2: Jarrett Allen
3: Malcom Brogdon
After thinking about it. Surprisingly, Brogdon seems like he would be a really nice fit for the Bulls. If they can get a player disability exception for Lonzo.
Let Vuc walk. Sign Christian wood, azubuike, Lyles, Nunn, Coby. Trade derosan for Jon issac. Maintain consistency…we’ll still suck
Terry blossoms over the summer and we're halfway there? Maybe that is the hope?
No Giannis, no Joel and the Bulls somehow match up well against the Celtics. You never really know who's going to be out in the playoffs, it feels like there's a path here that the Bulls could actually do something. But Bulls gotta Bulls.
With the seemingly endless stream of talent coming in to the league every year, rebuilding becomes both easier and harder. Easier because there are more useful players out there; harder because every team now can fill their rosters with useful players, and so the margin between good and great is thinner. I've generally been more pro- management than the baseline sentiment here at BaB, but I think the amount of talent available in the league makes it harder than ever to find an edge. I don't have confidence that the current regime has anything like the sophistication to be better than their peers. And of course ownership doesn't care to try.
So sure, let's go get Jaylen Brown. He's good and feels underappreciated by the Boston org. But we need like 5 other good young guys to go with him that fit together synergistically to ever hope to challenge the top echelon of teams.
There's no use keeping DeMar IMO (despite YFBB thoughts) unless you plan to dump him at the NEXT mid-season trade deadline in a complete rebuild. The move is to get movable, aggregate-able contracts for him -- players that can keep you at a scrappy .500 but also position you to send them away for the next disgruntled superstar. You need the pieces to make that move. That should be AK's priority. If you do that well, you not only land a star but you have the depth to not wipe your self out (like the Suns this year) when you do the swap. THAT is the continuity play done right.
Any discussion about delusions should start with some self-analysis.
If you guys were to go over to Hoops Hype and look, they've got a thing where they rank various players "all-in-one" stats by how NBA teams actually respect them. The two top ranking systems are EPM and DARKO.
If you look at the Bulls, this is how they rate out:
DARKO EPM Avg Player
80 43 61.5. Zach LaVine Starter
76 56 66. Alex Caruso Starter
92 40 66 DeMar DeRozan Starter
86 174 130. Javonte Green Starter
62 208 135. Derrick Jones Jr. Starter
102 175 138.5 Andre Drummond Starter/Role
147 189 168. Coby White Starter/Role
201 153 177. Nikola Vucevic Role
258 242 250. Patrick Williams Role
267 235 251. Patrick Beverley Role
291 328 309.5 Dalen Terry Bench
406 305 355.5 Ayo Dosunmu Fringe/Bench
I'm not going to quibble about particular ranks, but I'm going to point out that especially for a team with a cheap ass owner, you can't afford to overpay:
1. Zach is a problem because he's paid the max and he's not even an all-star level player. I don't forsee him making an all-star game again.
2. Vuc rates out as not even a starting level player. For the love of god, do not pay this fucking guy $20M. Even $15M is an overpay.
3. Javonte is pretty irrelevant because he looks cooked.
4. Drummond absolutely dies if he plays more than about 15 minutes, so don't go thinking he's the answer to anything.
5. I do not imagine any team trading significant value for DeMar. I can at least imagine a team talking itself into Zach.
Hence, my plan would be:
1. Trade Zach for everything we can get if we get a Murray/Mitchell/Gobert type offer. Don't expect this though. Would trade DeMar for a middle first and no bad salary coming back. Don't expect that to happen either.
2. Trade Caruso for everything we can get for him. Maybe a young player and a single later pick.
3. S&T Vuc if possible. If not, let him walk and replace him with cheaper guys. Sign him only if basically for the MLE for two years.
4. Resign Coby
5. With Vuc likely gone, use the MLE, BAE, and DPE (likely because they won't cut bait on Lonzo) to fill in on bigs and shooting.
Best case scenario would be something like:
Vuc S&T for RoCo
Coby for MLEish money
Naz Reid
Vasilie Micic for the DPE
Settle up Portland pick for this year's #23 (Draft Leonard Miller)
Trade Caruso to Kings for picks # 24 and #38 (Draft Trayce Jackson Davis and Brandon Podzienski)
G- Coby, Micic, Ayo
G- Zach, Podzienski
F- DeMar, Pat, Terry
F- RoCo, Miller, DJJ
C- Naz Reid, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Drummond
That ain't gonna set the world on fire, but it'd be a step in the right direction.
While there's a ton of down in the dumps talk, honestly, there are some great suggestions here. If you could acquire a tier 2 and tier 1 player without giving up LaVine, DDR, or Williams, you probably have yourself a pretty good team. Let's say from tier 2 you get Jarrett Allen and from tier 3 you get Malcom Brogdon (though I think he might be more tier 2). You could start with:
PG - Brogdon
SG - LaVine
SF - DDR
PF - Williams
C - Allen
Perimeter defense is a bit lacking, but there's much better shooting than we currently start, and we add an elite interior defender. If you can manage to keep Caruso too, you can at least be competitive in the East. The real issue is salary. You are putting in 100mil into a starting lineup that probably doesn't win a championship, but they would be fun and probably pretty good.
I had a dream last night that the Bulls got the 2nd pick in the lottery. So there’s that.
I'm all for trading LaVine and DDR for Jaylen Brown.
trying to think of a team to take Lonzo's contract in return for more expensive players that are bad but not disabled
The Heat are interesting. Duncan Robinson's deal is nearly identical. Find a way to take Lowry ($29M, one year) to reduce MIA's 2023-4 cap number?
Oladipo is another $9.5M in dead money, though unlike Lonzo it's only for one year. Bulls also would acquire transfer rights to Shams reporting "optimism towards recovery"
Bulls problem is Lonzo contract. Worst in the league? Need to dump on a long term tank. Would Spurs take him for McDerrmot and Graham? Doubt it. Could we package with Caruso? That’s 30M some team would need to match by dumping even longer term contracts of non-playing garbage on us. Davis Bertans and Duncan Robinson come to mind…