Weeks ago, I advocated for not making those two 2nd round picks, but using them to trade up from #15 or trade into future years, because there's no roster spots for them. They got less than I hoped for, but it takes two to tango, plus Reinsdorf might have a side ledger that needs some grease.
You're making too much out of this. What's important after the 1st round was and is FA, where it also takes two to tango. I'm hoping for Kessler even tho I gather that it's a long shot, and I haven't checked the polymarkets. They need some beef in the paint.
We fans, we want to cheer for civic or regional pride. Uniforms change, mascots change, of course players and executives change. Hell, even owners change. But far less often.
But we root to be part of a tribe, to be part of something bigger than ourselves, and in true American capitalist tradition, that’s what Reinsdorf et al. count on. They want to exploit our happiness for their monetary gain.
The last time there was a draft where none of the eventual top 15 guys came from a pick 38 or later was 2013. On averge there are about two per draft. I used win shares for this. But it doesn't matter. I've done this sort of thing with a few public stats. The conclusions stay the same regardless of which stat you use.
This is a helpful stat, but kinda also supports what Graham said in the interview, we are talking about 2 out of 22, so a 9% chance. Would you take a 9% chance on a player you don't even like? A future pick swap seems like a fair return.
Don't forget to factor in how NIL influenced this draft. Thomas Haugh was projected to be borderline lottery pick and Alex Condon was projected to be a late first round pick. Both stayed in school due to NIL. That's just two examples. A lot more players stayed in school, which means that the quality of each level of pick degraded in this year's draft.
So the quality of player normally available at 38-60 might have been taken in the 25-45 range this year. And the last 15-20 spots in the draft would normally have been signed as free agents.
Yeah, people have said that. I don't buy it personally. I think this draft looked pretty normal in it's depth. Would it have been even better without NIL? Probably. But I don't think post-NIL late 1st/2nd rounds have been unusually weak.
I'm not saying it'll be way different, but with NIL still being fairly new, we haven't gotten to the point where new NIL guys are graduating college and going pro. In a couple years, the guys that decided to stay in school this year and last year will have to declare for the draft because they will have graduated. We haven't really gotten to that point yet though.
If you think about it as a flow of talent, there's a short-term rebalancing happening with the shift of players staying longer to make that NIL money, but they'll eventually come to the league. NIL doesn't make it so there is less talent all told. But it's definitely causing a short-term disruption.
I think the chance is pretty good considering the two teams involved (maybe you need to use the swap, maybe you don't). If either team ends up picking in the back end of the lottery in 2028 or 2030 their 2nd rounder will be in the first several picks of the 2nd round. (That assumes the new lottery rules stay in place in 2030).
I'd be actually pretty shocked if we don't pick above #38 in one or both of those years. The only reasons we wouldn't:
1. One or both teams made the playoffs as the #7 seed or higher
AND/OR
2. One or both teams picking in the top 10 of the draft.
For our own pick, most of the scenarios where we don't draft higher than #38 involve us being a playoff competitor or having a very high lottery pick, and that will be the "win" for that offseason. But now we will also add the Pacers' chances (both lottery luck and/or regular season success) to our own odds.
The odds of us using these swap rights seems very small to me. The Pacers are a serious team thats set up to be in the playoffs over this period. The reverse picks only happens for lottery teams. The pacers are unlikely to be a lottery team and this it seems likely that that their picks will be in the 46-60 range.
I figure about a 90 percent chance we traded our pick for literally nothing.
I think that's a strange way to talk about a team that won 19 games this year and made an absolutely boneheaded trade at the deadline. I mean yeah, they made the Finals and then lost Halliburton so they tanked, but I don't see them as some juggernaut. Siakam is getting old and I don't see their young guys (other than Tyrese, coming off a very serious injury) as being the core of a contender.
I can't speak to the actual quality, but as someone who follows college ball more than the NBA, the number of players who stayed in school is far higher this year than normal.
I just did a quick search and it appears that the average age of players who made it to the Sweet 16 rose almost a full year from 2019 to 2025 (I haven't verified this, but it matches what I've seen). That matches what we'd expect from NIL leading to players staying in college longer.
I agree with the overall argument put forward in this post but I'm going to stand firm on pick swaps being a clever way to gain value under the new reverse-order 2nd round rules.
My general belief is that the true talent depth in most drafts runs from around 25 to 40 deep. This year for me it seemed like it fell off around pick 35 and there's no player I desired at #38.
So for second rounders, the concept of getting an additional "bite at the apple" in two different drafts where you really want to pick in the low 30s is a smart move in my book. It's also a hedge against getting bad lottery luck - drafting #15 or #16 (means you're also drafting #31 or #32 and possibly getting a strong prospect). Now the Bulls get their hedge and Indiana's hedge.
The perceived depth of the draft is also proportional to the value of a 2nd rounder based on its position. Meaning that for future trades, a pick in the low 30s could be exponentially more valuable than a pick in the high 30s.
"I agree with the overall argument put forward in this post but I'm going to stand firm on pick swaps being a clever way to gain value under the new reverse-order 2nd round rules."
Same for me. And we're at the early stages of NIL money making more guys staying put in college, but in a couple years when those swaps come you will again get deeper drafts potentially as the junior and seniors who went back to school will need to take the dive and stay in the draft. Which will coincide with them being more in line with the Bulls current rookies in terms of age too (compared to freshman 2nd rounders).
All of this smoke around the Bulls and Powell on the eve of free agency tells me that either the outline of a deal is already in place or his agent is working overtime to try to get Miami to free up money.
Maybe a bit of both. A report I read basically sounded like Powell’s agent was telling the Heat through the media that if they don’t get creative and free up money, they’ll accept an offer from Chicago.
Not sure if Miami is able to free up money, but there's a few names being thrown around in regards to Miami's search. Beal, Middleton and Vincent are looking like cheaper choices than Powell. That's a dire group of names though.
“Stein and Fischer noted that Chicago has emerged as a "strong potential landing spot" for Powell as well, dating back to the Detroit Pistons' decision to acquire Isaiah Joe in a trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder, which perhaps takes them out of the running for Powell.
If the Bulls do sign Powell, it is expected to be a "short-term, balloon-style deal," per Stein and Fischer.”
Should be a wild NBA day today. Would like to see the Bulls get a couple shooters and some future draft capital.
Some FAs that I think would be a decent fit: Mamu, Bones, Grimes, Landale
But I think getting in on trades would be more interesting. Could see Bulls being a salary dump destination for either the Kangs, Nuggets, or maybe the Suns. I also wonder if Shaedon Sharpe might be available now? He's not on a great contract, and the Blazers have a ton of guards after the Ja trade. Would solidify the Bulls as the best dunking team in the NBA.
I'm not into these Norm Powell FA rumors. It'd definitely help keep the Bulls out of the relegation zone, but I'd rather see a younger player with some upside soaking up those minutes.
I don't know why the Bulls would sign a single free agent, given that there's no way to give a 'team friendly' contract that has a free agent switching teams
Not interested in market rate contracts unless the player is 25 or younger
There's so many teams in a cap crunch, and I don't believe their moderately bad contracts are a meaningful difference in player quality, at least to where you could accurately speculate on next season, versus a free agent
I should look over specific candidates, but one that comes to mind is Dalton Knetcht
Agree - I'd definitely want the Bulls to prioritize using their cap space to get players and assets via trade (like Sharpe). Maybe there are some value contracts out there as the FA dust settles, but you wouldn't want to just wait around to find out.
This is the correct logic. Until this year wanting to avoid paying big money to FAs was partly based on the fact that by signing decent FAs we showed we aspired to be no worse than mediocre, when in reality the best play was to tank. But now, in a weird twist, I think there will be even more teams overpaying for FAs since "let's see if we can take a step forward and maybe get into the play-in" has morphed from Reinsdorfian/AKME folly into a defensible strategic move.
There's lots of cap space and cap exceptions out there and way too few deserving players.
Use the space to take contracts off desperate teams' hands and accumulate longer-term assets. That's all we should be doing right now.
I would happily take him back (with picks) if someone pounds it into his head that he's just here to be a shooter and that he will not be a primary ball handler.
If someone could convince him he'd still be good playing like that, I absolutely believe he could. He's always been an excellent catch a shoot player. He just refuses to play like that.
Duren felt like a lock to get the max or close to it before the playoffs happened. I don’t know what Detroit offered but it seems Duren felt insulted enough to want to bolt. Maybe it’s all a smokescreen for the negotiations but I can’t help but feel like Detroit played themselves.
Yeah - their moves so far seem really odd. Dumping Stewart ($15m) but signing Red Velvet at $9m/yr... yikes. Losing Duren, too, would put them in a really odd spot.
Huerter deal makes no sense to me. It's not like it's a new coach or situation, they decided - in their building - that Huerter wasn't a rotation playoff player
Dang - LeBron out of LA. Seems like the Warriors are the most likely landing spot - would love the Bulls to take Moody into cap space. Would make it possible for the Warriors sign LeBron with the MLE and to also keep Jimmy.
Seems like he fits the mold of the type of player the Bulls are prioritizing. Plus he can shoot it. Out until Dec/Jan, but that's not a big deal for the rebuilding Bulls. I've always liked him as a prospect - crazy long wingspan and reach - but always kinda buried in Golden State.
the rumor I think Stein just dropped is there is no "ultimatum" from LBJ if he joins warriors to get AD...I disagree, history tells us with bron bron, he already has a plan.
seeing some things floating, that arent verified but interesting. Shams says LBJ was seeking happiness not money. Some other unverified sources saying he felt disrespected that he didnt get the bag Kobe got at the end of his career...
Media will gloss whatever with him anyway. Just found it interesting
I mean if there's any team that will move on just fine from Lebron it's the Lakers, they don't need to kiss his ass. Not to mention Kobe played his entire career there.
so i haven't seen anyone ask this yet; after the 2nd round they signed UDFAs which seemed like relatively ok prospects. why not just draft them as 2nd rounders, if you liked them better than what was on whatever board.
and if it's because somehow that was a more economical way of acquiring those guys they liked at that level, who cares if they sold the other picks if these were the guys they wanted anyway
Best part of Kawhi trade to TOR is talent balance in conferences
Not great for the Bulls fan, merely a fan of common sense
And for the West (and Bulls tier in lottery standings), maybe Clippers don't even care about new 'relegation zone' under working assumption they're going to have picks stripped?
So the only thing that the Bulls got from the 38th pick was two potentially worthless second round pick swaps and Jerry’s favorite thing, cash considerations.
sorry it took so long - but it's so good! - NEW POST on Norm Powell signing you can paste your comments there if you'd like
https://blogabull.substack.com/p/bulls-sign-norman-powell-and-thats?r=2bo&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
Weeks ago, I advocated for not making those two 2nd round picks, but using them to trade up from #15 or trade into future years, because there's no roster spots for them. They got less than I hoped for, but it takes two to tango, plus Reinsdorf might have a side ledger that needs some grease.
You're making too much out of this. What's important after the 1st round was and is FA, where it also takes two to tango. I'm hoping for Kessler even tho I gather that it's a long shot, and I haven't checked the polymarkets. They need some beef in the paint.
New leadership, same ownership.
We fans, we want to cheer for civic or regional pride. Uniforms change, mascots change, of course players and executives change. Hell, even owners change. But far less often.
But we root to be part of a tribe, to be part of something bigger than ourselves, and in true American capitalist tradition, that’s what Reinsdorf et al. count on. They want to exploit our happiness for their monetary gain.
Oh, cruel world.
The last time there was a draft where none of the eventual top 15 guys came from a pick 38 or later was 2013. On averge there are about two per draft. I used win shares for this. But it doesn't matter. I've done this sort of thing with a few public stats. The conclusions stay the same regardless of which stat you use.
This is a helpful stat, but kinda also supports what Graham said in the interview, we are talking about 2 out of 22, so a 9% chance. Would you take a 9% chance on a player you don't even like? A future pick swap seems like a fair return.
Not sure "like" should matter. It's not a dating app. It's his job to figure out who those two guys are.
Don't forget to factor in how NIL influenced this draft. Thomas Haugh was projected to be borderline lottery pick and Alex Condon was projected to be a late first round pick. Both stayed in school due to NIL. That's just two examples. A lot more players stayed in school, which means that the quality of each level of pick degraded in this year's draft.
So the quality of player normally available at 38-60 might have been taken in the 25-45 range this year. And the last 15-20 spots in the draft would normally have been signed as free agents.
Yeah, people have said that. I don't buy it personally. I think this draft looked pretty normal in it's depth. Would it have been even better without NIL? Probably. But I don't think post-NIL late 1st/2nd rounds have been unusually weak.
and NIL isn't going away so how are later swaps that valuable? what are the chances a swap gets you at or above #38?
I'm not saying it'll be way different, but with NIL still being fairly new, we haven't gotten to the point where new NIL guys are graduating college and going pro. In a couple years, the guys that decided to stay in school this year and last year will have to declare for the draft because they will have graduated. We haven't really gotten to that point yet though.
Graduated??? Bwahahahaha!
A degree in basket weaving is still technically a degree.
If you think about it as a flow of talent, there's a short-term rebalancing happening with the shift of players staying longer to make that NIL money, but they'll eventually come to the league. NIL doesn't make it so there is less talent all told. But it's definitely causing a short-term disruption.
I think the chance is pretty good considering the two teams involved (maybe you need to use the swap, maybe you don't). If either team ends up picking in the back end of the lottery in 2028 or 2030 their 2nd rounder will be in the first several picks of the 2nd round. (That assumes the new lottery rules stay in place in 2030).
I'd be actually pretty shocked if we don't pick above #38 in one or both of those years. The only reasons we wouldn't:
1. One or both teams made the playoffs as the #7 seed or higher
AND/OR
2. One or both teams picking in the top 10 of the draft.
For our own pick, most of the scenarios where we don't draft higher than #38 involve us being a playoff competitor or having a very high lottery pick, and that will be the "win" for that offseason. But now we will also add the Pacers' chances (both lottery luck and/or regular season success) to our own odds.
The odds of us using these swap rights seems very small to me. The Pacers are a serious team thats set up to be in the playoffs over this period. The reverse picks only happens for lottery teams. The pacers are unlikely to be a lottery team and this it seems likely that that their picks will be in the 46-60 range.
I figure about a 90 percent chance we traded our pick for literally nothing.
I think that's a strange way to talk about a team that won 19 games this year and made an absolutely boneheaded trade at the deadline. I mean yeah, they made the Finals and then lost Halliburton so they tanked, but I don't see them as some juggernaut. Siakam is getting old and I don't see their young guys (other than Tyrese, coming off a very serious injury) as being the core of a contender.
I can't speak to the actual quality, but as someone who follows college ball more than the NBA, the number of players who stayed in school is far higher this year than normal.
I just did a quick search and it appears that the average age of players who made it to the Sweet 16 rose almost a full year from 2019 to 2025 (I haven't verified this, but it matches what I've seen). That matches what we'd expect from NIL leading to players staying in college longer.
I agree with the overall argument put forward in this post but I'm going to stand firm on pick swaps being a clever way to gain value under the new reverse-order 2nd round rules.
My general belief is that the true talent depth in most drafts runs from around 25 to 40 deep. This year for me it seemed like it fell off around pick 35 and there's no player I desired at #38.
So for second rounders, the concept of getting an additional "bite at the apple" in two different drafts where you really want to pick in the low 30s is a smart move in my book. It's also a hedge against getting bad lottery luck - drafting #15 or #16 (means you're also drafting #31 or #32 and possibly getting a strong prospect). Now the Bulls get their hedge and Indiana's hedge.
The perceived depth of the draft is also proportional to the value of a 2nd rounder based on its position. Meaning that for future trades, a pick in the low 30s could be exponentially more valuable than a pick in the high 30s.
"I agree with the overall argument put forward in this post but I'm going to stand firm on pick swaps being a clever way to gain value under the new reverse-order 2nd round rules."
Same for me. And we're at the early stages of NIL money making more guys staying put in college, but in a couple years when those swaps come you will again get deeper drafts potentially as the junior and seniors who went back to school will need to take the dive and stay in the draft. Which will coincide with them being more in line with the Bulls current rookies in terms of age too (compared to freshman 2nd rounders).
All of this smoke around the Bulls and Powell on the eve of free agency tells me that either the outline of a deal is already in place or his agent is working overtime to try to get Miami to free up money.
Maybe a bit of both. A report I read basically sounded like Powell’s agent was telling the Heat through the media that if they don’t get creative and free up money, they’ll accept an offer from Chicago.
There def is a lot of smoke as I mentioned as well. No big sources so far. Hoops hype mentioned it. Not sure how reliable
Stein/Fischer are credible IMO. A bit looser than the newsbreakers but that's why they're rumors
Michael Scotto of HoopsHype is a level below. Brett Seigel a level below that.
Anyway I have a feeling any Bulls interest is more agents interest in a team with cap space
replied in a now deleted thread, but Yeah Stein is legit, I dont kow much about Fish. And Windy irks me
Not sure if Miami is able to free up money, but there's a few names being thrown around in regards to Miami's search. Beal, Middleton and Vincent are looking like cheaper choices than Powell. That's a dire group of names though.
I'd suggest taking on Nikola Jovic off of Miami's hands before the lottery but he's a frontcourt player and that's jam packed now
Ok now this feels notable (per Bleacher Report):
“Stein and Fischer noted that Chicago has emerged as a "strong potential landing spot" for Powell as well, dating back to the Detroit Pistons' decision to acquire Isaiah Joe in a trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder, which perhaps takes them out of the running for Powell.
If the Bulls do sign Powell, it is expected to be a "short-term, balloon-style deal," per Stein and Fischer.”
Should be a wild NBA day today. Would like to see the Bulls get a couple shooters and some future draft capital.
Some FAs that I think would be a decent fit: Mamu, Bones, Grimes, Landale
But I think getting in on trades would be more interesting. Could see Bulls being a salary dump destination for either the Kangs, Nuggets, or maybe the Suns. I also wonder if Shaedon Sharpe might be available now? He's not on a great contract, and the Blazers have a ton of guards after the Ja trade. Would solidify the Bulls as the best dunking team in the NBA.
I'm not into these Norm Powell FA rumors. It'd definitely help keep the Bulls out of the relegation zone, but I'd rather see a younger player with some upside soaking up those minutes.
I don't know why the Bulls would sign a single free agent, given that there's no way to give a 'team friendly' contract that has a free agent switching teams
Not interested in market rate contracts unless the player is 25 or younger
There's so many teams in a cap crunch, and I don't believe their moderately bad contracts are a meaningful difference in player quality, at least to where you could accurately speculate on next season, versus a free agent
I should look over specific candidates, but one that comes to mind is Dalton Knetcht
Agree - I'd definitely want the Bulls to prioritize using their cap space to get players and assets via trade (like Sharpe). Maybe there are some value contracts out there as the FA dust settles, but you wouldn't want to just wait around to find out.
Idk man.
Knecht scored 4.2 ppg last year and is already 25. And all of his numbers were down compared to his rookie year.
I would most definitely argue that a notable free agent would provide more of a meaningful difference in player quality than he would.
true I wouldn't suggest Knecht is comparable to Norman Powell
but he would be to, like, signing Kevin Huerter in FA (which Detroit weirdly did)
This is the correct logic. Until this year wanting to avoid paying big money to FAs was partly based on the fact that by signing decent FAs we showed we aspired to be no worse than mediocre, when in reality the best play was to tank. But now, in a weird twist, I think there will be even more teams overpaying for FAs since "let's see if we can take a step forward and maybe get into the play-in" has morphed from Reinsdorfian/AKME folly into a defensible strategic move.
There's lots of cap space and cap exceptions out there and way too few deserving players.
Use the space to take contracts off desperate teams' hands and accumulate longer-term assets. That's all we should be doing right now.
Do we want or need Zach LaVine Jr?
Sure! I'd take Jalen Green, too for the right deal. Heck, I'd even take the OG Zach LaVine back as a salary dump.
I think I'm less scarred than most from the Zach LaVine experience and hope he ends up in a good situation somewhere. 3rd fiddle ZL is gonna hit hard.
I would happily take him back (with picks) if someone pounds it into his head that he's just here to be a shooter and that he will not be a primary ball handler.
I always kinda wondered if he could just be klay, just catch and shoot which he can do
If someone could convince him he'd still be good playing like that, I absolutely believe he could. He's always been an excellent catch a shoot player. He just refuses to play like that.
hasn't happened yet
I dont understand what Detroit is doing. They are young, but it looks like they are retooling after a succesful season
https://x.com/TheSteinLine/status/2071973615344488829
Duren likely gone too
Duren felt like a lock to get the max or close to it before the playoffs happened. I don’t know what Detroit offered but it seems Duren felt insulted enough to want to bolt. Maybe it’s all a smokescreen for the negotiations but I can’t help but feel like Detroit played themselves.
Yeah - their moves so far seem really odd. Dumping Stewart ($15m) but signing Red Velvet at $9m/yr... yikes. Losing Duren, too, would put them in a really odd spot.
Huerter deal makes no sense to me. It's not like it's a new coach or situation, they decided - in their building - that Huerter wasn't a rotation playoff player
yeah it's the collective moves they are making not the link I posted.
I don't think they're letting Duren go. Maybe if this Kings smoke involves Sabonis. Which I also wouldn't really like but at least it's understandable
I dunno, Seems like theres gonna be teams lining up for him, if he feels offended by the Pistons, maybe he Bolts
they can match any offer tho
good point. hard to tell if smoke or he's really angry haha
cap dump of a guard alert here
Marcus Sasser
turns 26 in a couple months, signed for $5.2M next season only
Dang - LeBron out of LA. Seems like the Warriors are the most likely landing spot - would love the Bulls to take Moody into cap space. Would make it possible for the Warriors sign LeBron with the MLE and to also keep Jimmy.
good call on Moody
just turned 24, next two years guaranteed at $12.5M/$13.5M
Seems like he fits the mold of the type of player the Bulls are prioritizing. Plus he can shoot it. Out until Dec/Jan, but that's not a big deal for the rebuilding Bulls. I've always liked him as a prospect - crazy long wingspan and reach - but always kinda buried in Golden State.
wow I forgot he was hurt, and like you I don't particularly care
Man I'm gonna have to hate the warriors now
They would be fun, and fun to root against.
the rumor I think Stein just dropped is there is no "ultimatum" from LBJ if he joins warriors to get AD...I disagree, history tells us with bron bron, he already has a plan.
it's all Klutch: LeBron, AD, Draymond Green
easy too, since I expect 80% of their games to be on national TV
My lakers fan friends are cheering rn LOL.
Another one, Gradey Dick reportedly part of Raptors' Kawhi Leonard offer and Clippers may not want him
22.6 years old, signed just 1 more season at $7.1M
I believe Jerry requires at least three white starters, so it would make sense after the loss of Vooch.
Jerry is also kind of a Dick, so there's the familial connection there as well.
Kawhi to the Raps: confirmed. Ingram, Gradey Dick, 2 first-round picks, 1 pick swap and 2 second-rounders (per Shams).
seeing some things floating, that arent verified but interesting. Shams says LBJ was seeking happiness not money. Some other unverified sources saying he felt disrespected that he didnt get the bag Kobe got at the end of his career...
Media will gloss whatever with him anyway. Just found it interesting
I mean if there's any team that will move on just fine from Lebron it's the Lakers, they don't need to kiss his ass. Not to mention Kobe played his entire career there.
so i haven't seen anyone ask this yet; after the 2nd round they signed UDFAs which seemed like relatively ok prospects. why not just draft them as 2nd rounders, if you liked them better than what was on whatever board.
and if it's because somehow that was a more economical way of acquiring those guys they liked at that level, who cares if they sold the other picks if these were the guys they wanted anyway
Best part of Kawhi trade to TOR is talent balance in conferences
Not great for the Bulls fan, merely a fan of common sense
And for the West (and Bulls tier in lottery standings), maybe Clippers don't even care about new 'relegation zone' under working assumption they're going to have picks stripped?
I mean. That's only if he actually even plays lol.
Cavs looking to move Strus, should the Bulls take a peak at a 1 yr rental?
yes, any shooting really
could also look at Dean Wade from the Cavs, or former Cav (now Grizzly) Ty Jerome
seeing some cavs bulls trade rumors, no names. I enjoy this time of year but probably 95% of these things are false
The fact that LeBron played with the Lakers twice as long as he played with the Heat is going to be remembered as an all-time weird stat.
Free Agency is about to begin!
A couple housekeeping transactions for the Bulls right up to the starting line:
Fully Guaranteed Leonard Miller (was a non-guaranteed team option picked up last week)
Waived Kam Jones (half-guaranteed at $1.1M on the cap)
So the only thing that the Bulls got from the 38th pick was two potentially worthless second round pick swaps and Jerry’s favorite thing, cash considerations.
My new theory is that the lead executive gets a kickback for any pick they sell.