the LaVine-less Bulls earned a real win
there's a formula for an average team, here. that's a lot better than awful
Listen, I can go back to any underdog victory the Bulls have had over the past 25 years and deem it fake. The Bulls, despite being in a major market and winning six championships, love being the plucky undermanned (read: inexpensive) franchise who can delight us on rare occasion in the midst of an 82 game (!) season.
Last night’s win against the Sixers was not fake. OK, maybe Philly was on the 3rd game in 4 nights. But they were at home, and not missing anybody significant. The Bulls may have been a bit lucky in they were still ‘missing’ Zach LaVine (jokes), but ultimately they just played a good game and earned the win over an actual contender.
Considering where this Bulls team was just last month, the following is high praise!
The Bulls have had some schedule luck in their now 6-3 record since LaVine’s trade holdout foot injury, but they have also exhibited a somewhat repeatable method of success. Looking at every team’s last 9 games, the Bulls are producing much better on both sides of the ball: 13th on defense and 12th on offense.
It’s certainly easy to see how much the defense improved by simply removing an individual who didn’t care in LaVine. And though it was through the unsavory motivation of pouting towards getting more offensive touches, it looks like Vucevic cares a bit more on defense lately as well. The Sixers still own the league’s best offense, and the Bulls held them to defensive rating under 111 (36th percentile). Look at Coby White of all people stepping up and making things uncomfortable for Embiid in his final bid for victory.
Offensively they may have found something as well. Coby White continues to impress, with a newly more aggressive scoring mentality keeping the Bulls in games, including erasing their still-present early deficits.
Even when Coby is not hitting everything, they have gotten timely (so, a bit lucky) 3 point shooting elsewhere. Last night, in the final 6:51 when Vuc re-entered the closing lineup, he went 2-3 from distance while Patrick Williams - who has been awesome as 3-and-D just don’t ask him to do anything else - had 2 makes of his own and the team went 4-7.
(Vuc looking to the heavens after his 2nd made three. It was pretty funny seeing Embiid just totally ignore him all night, and while it sucks a bit of personal joy from me when he leads the team in shots, credit to him for continuing to attack in the face of opponent disrespect)
There’s also a nightly dominance of the offensive glass. In this 9 game segment the Bulls lead the league grabbing an astounding 35% of available offensive rebounds.
Then you still have great individual clutch performers in Caruso and DeRozan in their closing lineup. Sometimes it doesn’t totally work or look particularly productive, but it’s better than when the anti-clutch LaVine butts in.
How much of this is sustainable? And even if sustained is it ultimately average?Caruso had thoughts on that:
“Yeah, for sure [we are a playoff team]. I think we have enough talent clearly. I mean, we just won at Philly. We won at Miami, went 2-1 on this road trip. We were up two buckets with 3 minutes to go in Miami in the second game. That team was in the Finals last year and this is a team that’s trying to win the Finals this year---two of the best teams. We beat Milwaukee.”
That’s a great attitude…for a player. Hopefully we don’t hear the exact same out of the Bulls front office after the trade deadline.
In regard to Vuc and touches/shots, I actually feel like his complaining (which unfortunately has devolved into pouting at times) stems from a desire to win, not simply to "get his" -- he feels the offense flows better with him than with the ball sticking with Zach as he messes around trying to go one-on-one every other possession.
I can't say he's totally wrong about that, especially from a Zach perspective. I know the feeling of playing with guys like Zach in pickup basketball games and it's totally emotionally deflating.
But Vuc isn't totally right either. Both he and DeMar are team-first players but tend to overinflate their conception of "the best thing for the team right now is for me to dominate the ball." So failings aren't about selfishness but really a lack of self-awareness and lack of trust in teammates. Prime MJ didn't always trust his teammates but had strong self-awareness of himself actually being the best scoring option in every pivotal situation.
But Zach has basically no self-awareness at all. Win or lose last night, at the end of tight games it continues to be refreshing to not have to watch Zach try long, contested 2's and dribble the ball off his knees trying to drive through traffic.
Sorry for the length, but legitimately optimistic for the first time in a while.
The sample size and eye-test is strong enough now to realize we are looking at something fundamentally different. That also means it's time to let go of some negative story lines. No need to trash wins against ailing or tired teams; all teams are ailing and tired. Was Vuc 'begging for more touches in an unsavory fashion' or was he just (rightfully) effin sick of the Zach (and sometimes just as tired of the isolation Demar) show. Were Coby and PW bad-to-below average, or just stuck in minor roles with low usage? Was Billy catering to star players, or sabotaged by them?
(I still won't give AKME a break; they sit on their hands and spout platitudes way too much for my taste).
Looking forward, I see an optimistic path (though it will take AKME savvy).
For starters, let's take them at their word and by their actions and assume they will NOT tear things down to the studs. What does that mean in light of their recent play:
- The Bulls suddenly have some interesting young players in Coby, PW and Ayo. If PW cuts a reasonable deal, they'll all be on GREAT contracts (as is Caruso)....
- Caruso and DeMar stick. With his contract, talent and team focus, Caruso is very valuable. He also won't get you a pick that garners you anything more than mid-first(s), ie Dalen Terry-types. Keeping him on a next contract may be an issue, but cross that when you get there. DeMar won't get you much straight up. But if he won't reasonably extend (more below), he's a packageable contract at the trade deadline. To tear things truly down, you need Thunder/Jazz returns, otherwise you get stuck in a painful rebuild like Detroit.
- Trade Zach now -- target aggregateable $20M contracts and a pick or swap if you can get it. Look for mid-rotation players and expirings if you can. Rui and Reaves/DLo is fine. Huerter/Harrison Barnes. Detroit Bogdanovic and Joe Harris. Capturing young talent like Herro and Robinson feels like a stretch, but you never know. No stars, but useful pieces in all those deals.
- I'd bring DDR back if the contract fits. I think two years at $50M is fine; 3 at $60 is pushing it lengthwise; anything at $30M+-per year is too expensive. He's got unique skills that should age ok that he's shown ALSO fit into what the Bulls are doing. Keep him around if it makes sense. If you can't extend him reasonably soon, he's an expiring.
- At that point, you have a bunch of reasonable contracts, at least some expiring, and a bunch of pick and swap options to dangle. Now or later, turn a couple of expirings + picks and swaps into a legitimate 1A. How about expiring Derozan and expiring Joe Harris plus picks and swaps to the Jazz for Lauri? Etc. etc. Take your time and look for a true, young star. Would be great to have a Nets-like team from a few years ago that 1A stars asking for trades would actually want to go to and that would have a roster they could compete with.
IMO, these are pieces and moves that keep this team Top 6 minimum with potential significant upside. Megastars are no longer taking their teams to championships, see: Luka, Embid. Lebron and Durant are old and need a team around them. Tatum's a beast, but he's not doing it alone. Wemby is a few years away. (Jokic is arguably the exception, but also has a perfect roster around him). There's a window for a mid-young/experienced roster, with an aggressive style of play, and a defensive mindset to make some noise. Add a top-line start by surrendering picks but without decimating the roster and it gets even more interesting.
For now, it's fun to watch games and root for the Bulls again. As for what's next, I see a path that avoids both mediocrity (or just plain bad) as well as a tear-down without a massive pick haul that would cause 4-5 years of real pain.
Let's see how it plays out.