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All these options suck.

We're totally getting Ben Simmons, aren't we?

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no, because even more money is owed to him

we're getting Derrick Rose

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I hope rose doesn't come here... Like any other year I'd want him to be a bull.... But he would just be the scapegoat for the org.... He doesn't deserve that.

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author

I don't think Rose would get any scapegoating. More just annoying questions of why he's not playing, which he's getting now.

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Here are two excerpts from a document that explain why he's rostered:

https://imgur.com/a/dbB9nxW

He's getting nearly as much as he did at his peak from this.

I'm sure if the Knicks had a deal at the deadline he would have been included, as he was last time he was on the Knicks, and swapped around by various teams. I mean loyalty is great but Brunson's under contract and they already hired his fucking dad, so business is business. But even after this, Derrick Rose is probably going to be a strange mascot/scarecrow on rosters for at least another two years. The league will pay half of a minimum salary and you'll have record jersey sales for your 13th rostered player.

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Pure speculation, but I always felt part of why rose is on the knicks is because thibs feeling guilty or at least remorseful for derrick roses injury. Rose is very much like an assistant coach for the knicks at this point, but nba players on minimum deals still make vastly more than assistant coach's. So I feel like thibs just gave rose a roster spot to ensure he's getting paid and to be a player coach to keep the young guys ready all as a way of retribution for what transpired with roses career.

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It's possible, but he is making a lot more than the minimum - he's in the second year of a $45 million contract (next year is a team option though and obviously won't be picked up). I thought it was sentimental and there's no doubt Thibs played a huge role in his comeback in Minnesota. But they also have Fournier making even more than Rose and playing not a single minute as well and Thibs seems to fucking hate his guts so who knows?

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I actually thought Thibs benched him purposely so he can ball out and keep his legs

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I think he barely plays for the knicks and is mostly a human victory cigar. Read an article on reddit about how much impact he has had on the locker room though.

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Excellent write up. Just to give some hard numbers on "Why would some idiot team trade for Lonzo Ball"?

On paper, Lonzo's contract remaining contract value is about $42M.However, due to the insurance payout, the Bulls will actually only have to pay about $8.4M.

So if the Bulls traded Lonzo to say, Atlanta for Clint Capela, who is also owed about $42M, this would effectively be writing a check for $33.6M to the Hawks.

That's a lot of money.

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author

and like you've said before, the team would have to be outwardly cynical and cheap to try and spin this as anything but

So...the Hornets? Hayward's deal is a season shorter but is $31.5M . They can tease the brothers on the same team, wow.

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Probably

* Hornets for Hayward or Rozier.

* Pistons for Bagley and Stewart. Basically they're just using the carrot of Stewart to undo signing Bagley. I don't think they'd take much a cynicism hit because they're so bad. It'd actually not be the worst thing for us. Those guys are still young and not completely without hope.

* Blazers if they trade Dame. They're increasingly acting like a small market team, and there's no way they get a good return on Dame, so going full rebuild and getting out from under the cash probably wouldn't be the worst outcome for them.

* Maybe the Pelicans? At what point do they just decide Zion is this generation's Sam Bowie or Danny Manning?

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I wouldn't trade Ball b/c you're ultimately going to end up with a worse problem, but one that plays.

In the past this would be a Presti special - get a pick and take on a contract. I don't see them doing that here. Of those you listed, only the Hornets make sense to me.

I just don't see how the Bulls can really make salaries work. Even in that Hornets trade the Bulls would have to include something they wouldn't want to include just to make salaries work.

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Rozier is good.

Hayward, yes, would be a likely negative when playing. But it's only a 1-year contract. You're correct Bulls would have to add another player, but it could be someone under $5M like Drummond/Jones. Could also work something out to send Coby White home on a sign-and-trade (would need something actually good back in that case, maybe Rozier)

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The Pistons idea is the one that I'd go for. Bagley's owed $12.5M for this season and next, so he's a manageable contract this year, and a tradable one next year. Stewart I still think has potential.

It's the closet to the Presti idea. You take Bagley's bad deal in order to get Stewart (who's somewhat like a pick still). But Bagley's deal isn't actually that bad.

In any case, it's not a worse problem. You're replacing Lonzo's $20M of dead money this year with $17M spent on two guys who are at least young and play at positions of need. And like you say, we don't have to give up anyone else to make the numbers work.

With those guys on board, they'd still be able to re-sign Coby, use the MLE, and either Vuc or the DPE. And they'd have several more traceable options going forward.

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author

I don't understand Detroit's motivation to do this

They do not have a lot of money on the books. They're not run by some cynical cheapass (just he didn't hire good executives, he paid for them)

One possible reason would be they want to maximize 2023 cap space? So they'd combine Bagley+Wiseman and get like $3M more in space...if they waived-and-stretched Lonzo even more space. There has to be better ways to do this, you'd think.

Another motivation could be if they do land Wembenyama to just ASAP clear the decks of any frontcourt minutes.

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Yeah, honestly I didn’t think much past “it saves them $20m”.

Maybe they’re not that desperate. But at the same time, I figure there aren’t likely many takers out there for Bagley and I don’t understand at all why they’ve got him, Stuart, Duren and Wiseman. I could see them just waiving Bagley at some point, and if they do that it’s heure eating his entire salary.

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now a team who is in a similar cap situation but is run by a cynical cheapass is the Houston Rockets

they have no bad long-term money owed, but if nobody takes their cap space this offseason I could see them just taking Lonzo to hit the salary floor

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May 12, 2023Liked by your friendly BullsBlogger

Not only that, but they have so many young guys, and they'll be adding two more this offseason. I could see them getting some future draft capital for like Garuba or Tate (more likely?). Trade for Ball into their cap space, get a highly protected pick, and trade out Tate so Bulls can say they got something back.

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The Bulls, like physical systems, follow the principle of least action. Pay whatever it takes to bring everyone back, string the public along that Lonzo will be back "soon", and AK can go on vacation before June.

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Bend don't break

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I say go for the trade...break up the team and restart. Shame..because like the Rose era, we have a really nice team but they just cant be healthy enough to compete

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Besides Lonzo the team was extremely healthy last year. Health is not why they are bad.

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Yes and no. This team is built around Lonzo. His health affected us badly.

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I know this is not what they will do, but they need to go for the career ending injury exclusion. He most likely will not ever play again. Even if he does, his current contract will likely only get them a limited ramp up year in his option year. Just cut bait.

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Since the Bulls won't pay the tax, it seems to me that the Disabled Player exception would be a way to stay over the cap without having to re-sign Vuch to a deal they don't really want to do. Currently, there is extra incentive to re-sign Vuch because you wouldn't be able to sign a replacement free agent with the same salary (being over the cap). Disabled Player would essentially allow you to decide you'd rather have a free agent than Vuch. I could be mistaken on how this works, no hurt feelings if someone corrects me.

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you are correct

a DPE is not THAT great, as you can only use it (signing/trade/claim) on a one-year contract. But it would be another avenue to player acquisition where they can't say there's no way to replace Vucevic , absolutely right.

a DPE could bring PatBev back for example, and/or a cheap shooter, and then they'd still have their MLE for starting center.

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If Vucevic walks maybe they'll be more willing to file for the DPE? They can use the MLE to sign a replacement center, and the DPE to go for a one year PG rental.

I think my preferred outcome is that Vucevic stays on a sweetheart deal (meaning, they'll be under the tax and have the full MLE and BAE). Then I'd be fine with whatever happens, either him playing out that contract or being moved later. Don't think he's willing to accept a pay cut, though.

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No reason not to file for it sooner than any Vuc decision. Outside of the 'optics' of having an exception and not using it, but they do that all the time.

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May 12, 2023Liked by your friendly BullsBlogger

Them being proactive in this way is not a scenario that enters my mind… ever…

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"This was Arturas Karnisovas last month, either lying or admitting incompetence when asked about how he handled Lonzo Ball’s injury prognosis last season"

Can't it be both? This man is...

1) Blindly prideful to the point of being misanthropic towards Bulls fans

2) Incompetent as shown in almost all of his moves so far as manager of the Bulls

3) Not subject to almost any accountability to his superiors

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I don't want to limit our perspective as to just how terrible AK is, is my point

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May 11, 2023Liked by your friendly BullsBlogger

Option 1 is the bulls wet dream.

It's very similar to how they found a way to hardcap themselves by signing kirk hinrich for the mle and letting korver go to the Hawks as a free agent vs just doing a sign and trade. And as mentioned, with how the bulls media is just an extension of the org, we won't ever hear anything on the bulls getting the insurance money.

Option 3 is the option I think most teams that want to compete would pursue and option 2 is the clear best move. Even if the negotions for option 2 take time, beyond this off-season, I think it's beneficial for the Bulls to pursue to have a chance to truly build something starting at the deadline.... That's too much work so they'll never explore option 2

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May 12, 2023·edited May 12, 2023Liked by your friendly BullsBlogger

The Korver / Hinrich "deal" was even worse than you remember. Though the salaries would have worked fine for what Hinrich was signed for, they instead:

1. Traded Korver to the Hawks for a $5 million trade exception

2. Plus "cash considerations"

3. Signed Hinrich using the MLE, hardcapping themselves in the process

4. Never used the Korver trade exception and let it expire a year later.

The final tally is they outright sold the guy who lead the league in 3 point shooting for 2 of the next 3 years for about $1 million or so.

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And he made an all-star team in there as well.

If we are honest with ourselves, is there any possible path to contention with this current ownership? Probably not, right? And we can have good victories from time to time and players that we like, but the real reason to follow this team is some abstract appreciation of just how cheap and incompetent they are. That Hinrich hard-cap is one of the most subtle and beautiful pieces of poor asset management that I have ever witnessed. It belongs in a museum.

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Korver didn't just make the all star team, I'd say he is the guy who truly ushered in the 3pt era by being the centerpiece of the Hawks offense. Up till then teams were looking for all around ball dominant players to center their offense around, then here comes this catch and shoot 3pt marksman who suddenly shows the nba world the concept of gravity and how you can stretch defenses thin just by having an "always moving without the ball" 3pt marksman. I'm positive in some indirect way that it was Korver and the Hawks that gave rise to curry and the warriors

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May 12, 2023·edited May 12, 2023

I think you nailed it there. I like it when I see the Bulls win a game. But I don't give a shit about nerd fan stuff like figuring out their cap or long-term plans or potential deals, better to save your time and sanity and bother with teams that are at least going for it if you're into that kind of thing. In our discord we're pulling apart Phoenix now and it's fun because they might ACTUALLY do something that isn't just "sell everything." In fact they almost have to be creative this off-season given the finger-trap of league financial restrictions. It's cool. It's fun. It has no applicability to the Bulls whatsoever!

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This cuts, because I look at it as "The only way the Bulls could possibly contend is if they have genius level cap management that doesn't overpay for guys."

But the reality is the Bulls are signaling they want DeAndre Ayton, who is basically the opposite of this approach.

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Oh damn I forgot about the exception and the cash considerations.... Hard capping the roster in the midst of the drose injury drama was trauma enough.

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There's a famous study that illustrates how when you tell a subject a story that is nonsensical and then ask them to repeat the story back to an interviewer, their memory will attempt to alter the details in order to make it sensible. I can't remember what it's called but that series of transactions was so insane that without a written record nobody would believe it so I'l go with "The Hinrich Paradox."

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What I remember the most about all this is that when the rumor broke that hinrich was coming back to the bulls I was pretty stoked as, spoiler alert, I was a huge fan. The general fanbase made fun but it felt like a fine move if he came at a cheap price. Then we learned it was a trade of korver for hinrich and I remember getting bummed but thinking the Hawks would give us like a second round pick or something so that's not so bad. The general fanbase was more against it but it just seemed like whatever. Then it happened the way it did and I just remember being absolutely defeated. It still is to my knowledge the worst transaction in bulls history.

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and their excuse was that s&ts had to be for 3 years and they didn't want to give hinrich 3. even though the last year could have been unguaranteed...

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... And then they signed him for that 3rd year anyway lol

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lol so true. it was for less, but they still did it.

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11 seasons a Bull: The Kirk Hinrich Story

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This is all NBD because 3 point shooting was a fad that kind of went out of style from that point.

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I was annoyed when the Bulls let the Vooch trade go rotten the only way it could. Now they won't punt and rebuild. I hate rebuilding BUT for all the time and effort in Pat Will, maybe it's time to see what he can do with the offense geared to him. Instead we're gonna get a half-loaf of a season... again.

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They should have applied for the career ending exception as soon as he had his 3rd surgery. At this point I can't blame AK. Its Reinsdorf. Its part of the reason I've started following the Suns so much more closely. The Suns were cheap, but they were smart. Now they might not be cheap anymore. The Bulls are dumb and cheap. Its a terrible combo.

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The extent to which one of the most iconic sports franchises in the entire world has been abused and neglected by its owners is astounding. I hate Jerry Rheinsdorff with the heat of 10,000 suns.

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The AK column is on point.

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man i feel like the career ending exception is such a bummer even if everyone knows it is probably right. it is designed to put the team in a bad light, even if determined by a 3rd party, except in the case of like Chris Bosh where they had already mutually parted ways.

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trying to fully bake the trade ideas, I thought Dallas could be interesting, where they may look for cap space this summer to where gaining it would be 'worth' tying up $20M to Lonzo.

But more likely they can't have functional cap space and re-sign Kyrie. They could work out a deal for Lonzo that saves them money under the tax, but then would reduce their flexibility, might as well use those parts instead to get actual players

for the record, I was thinking Ball+Drummond for Bertans+McGee+Bullock, which saves Dallas ~$9M next season

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Problem is, we need a replacement level pg.

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If the Bulls and AKME had thoughts of being competent, the wheels would already be turning on Option 2; this is clearly best for the future flexibility in the event they actually wanted to build toward being relevant.

I think the next best option is to explore a trade. Of the ones that have been floated in the thread, the Detroit one sounds like it could be mutually beneficial, as the Bulls should have at least one youngish big on the roster...I assume that Lonzo could be traded in a package? Him and Derozan combine for $48M or so next year, so what about a deal to Atlanta for Capela and Murray? Or Minnesota for Gobert and Anderson?

I think the more likely option is they apply for the DPE and use it to re-sign Pat Bev in the name of continuity...and they just keep shuffling the deck or something...

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Great read 👍

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