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"Gottlieb pegs an average annual value of $18.2M and three years as “satisfactory” for the Bulls"

Goddamn. If they are actually dumb enough to consider offering this kind of a deal, I don't even know what to say. That's just really bleak. Makes me not want to read this blog!

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May 3, 2023·edited May 3, 2023Author

Will's post is good, and I may have been a bit confused on what was his opinion vs speculating on the Bulls' thinking

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May 3, 2023Liked by your friendly BullsBlogger

What Will said ("he holds the most offensive responsibility of anyone on the list") is true but is also part of the problem with this team. The offensive makeup and profile of the team needs to change. Giving that large of an offensive load to someone who doesn't effect winning the way he should is a huge negative. I can argue they can replicate Vuc's output by committee and just by changing the makeup of the team. I could also argue that his large offensive responsibility has gotten the Bulls absolutely nowhere. Why pay (overpay) for something where the value is questionable at best?

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This is a good summation of the Vuc situation. They will almost certainly overpay to keep him, but the only right move is to try like hell to turn over the roster. All of DeMar, Zach, Vuc should be available, but particularly DeMar and Vuc because of their age.

They paid too much to acquire Vuc, but that is long over and most people were on board with it at the time. It is not a reason not to just let him go if it comes to that.

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May 3, 2023·edited May 3, 2023Liked by your friendly BullsBlogger

Love the phrase "Terminal case of Kobe Brain." Prayers up for Lavine.

I've been more AK-positive than most, but how he deals with getting rid of and replacing Vuce is the true litmus test. I know you mock this viewpoint regularly, but my optimistic hope is his post-season presser declaring desire to bring back Vuce is (thinly veiled) leverage in a sign and trade for a cheap replacement level center.

Of course, it's the Bulls. So I'm sure we'll bring back Vuce just so Stacey can scream himself hoarse for more post touches.

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May 3, 2023·edited May 3, 2023Liked by your friendly BullsBlogger

Drove me crazy when Stacy would say that almost every night. FOR WHAT so Vuc can take 1-2 dribbles and pass it before the double team fully arrives? Or make the pass to the wrong man? Oh or how about when he had a smaller player on him and wouldn't back him into the restricted area.

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Great post.

The groupthink blindly trudging into a Vuc extension for "reasons" that aren't backed up by anything more than wishful thinking is the worst part of this offseason.

I'll add another bit. I've been working on defensive metrics that takes into account the DFG stats now available from the league. I'm still playing around with it, but the thumbnail sketch is that Vuc is unmistakably one of the worst defensive players at the position that most requires defense.

This is not a remotely difficult decision. Vuc is a change of pace role player. He's not a star, and he's only situationally even a starter. Do not pay this guy much more than the MLE under any circumstances. Better to let him leave for nothing and replace him.

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I mean I don't even hate Vuc as much as many do but the suggestion that the bulls should offer him $18 mil is outrageous. Yikes.

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it's far from the worst suggestion...ol pal Mark K. before the deadline said "3-years, $70 million"

https://allchgo.com/2023/01/26/why-the-bulls-should-re-sign-nikola-vucevic/

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These people are all drunk. Lol

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Gross.

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May 4, 2023Liked by your friendly BullsBlogger

I get making the mistake once, and was all kind of jacked and juiced when the FO made the trade for Vucevic. Namely, because it was a risk from an organization you can generously call risk-averse. Also, plainly, I thought he'd shoot better.

Coming off of his 2020-2021 season, I thought you could pencil in about 37% shooting from 3 on 6 or 7 attempts. Having never seen that consistently from a Center in a Bulls uniform before, I was excited. Turns out, I've still never seen that consistently from a Center in a Bulls uniform.

He's not helped by the fact that this team refuses to employ point guards who are competent with the ball, and/or not chronically injured. But, that's a topic for another day.

It's safe to say the trade was a mistake. Doubling down on it now makes no sense.

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the Bulls are bad at identifying talent, and cheap, but it is difficult to find point guards who do everything even without those limitations.

I think another limitation is that they feel they have to get a defense-first (and therefore less expensive) PG because they have Vuc at center. And yeah, one that could make a post entry pass would be great, but not at the expense of outside shooting. I would rather get a shooter and not have to worry about Vuc's touches in the mid-post.

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May 4, 2023Liked by your friendly BullsBlogger

Agree on one thing: Vucevic needs to play with a natural point guard and in an offense that can get him the ball where he's most effective, and in a defensive scheme that minimizes him chasing hummingbirds at the 3pt line.

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May 3, 2023·edited May 3, 2023Author

For reference, here are the free agent centers (clipped from HoopsRumors.com)

I took out some of the truly-old and ones who will be too expensive/unlikely (Brook Lopez, Jakob Poeltl)

Udoka Azubuike (24)

Bismack Biyombo (31)

Thomas Bryant (26)

Drew Eubanks (26)

Alex Len (30)

Robin Lopez (35)

Chimezie Metu (26)

Mason Plumlee (33)

Dwight Powell (32)

Naz Reid (24)

Moritz Wagner (26)

Cody Zeller (31)

Jaxson Hayes (23) - restricted

Jock Landale (28) - restricted

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Would be fun to see Naz get a chance to be a starter. I also think Bryant is interesting. He showed quite a bit when he got time in LA and looks like he stayed healthy after coming back from injury.

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Depending on where Wembenyana ends up maybe some other centers will be available. Isaiah Stewart, Jalen Smith, Wagner, Plumlee, Mo Bamba and maybe even Wendell or KAT.

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Bamba is not in Orlando anymore. But sign and trade Vuc to Lakers for Bamba and Schroeder?

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Bamba is a good call. Only $10M for one season, and the Lakers are the kind of team who would rather have Vuc

Malik Beasley has kinda disappointed for them and is at $16.5M next year. Beasley+Bamba is a lot of incoming money though, and Bulls would have to send out Caruso or Pat and that involves assets coming back so would have to come from somewhere else.

Could aim lower (and a lot more complicated) with a S&T the other way with Bamba and one of their unrestricted FAs...Russell, Hachimura, Walker. I'd actually prefer Beasley over those guys on long-term deals.

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Id be interested in Plumlee as a bridge or stop-gap.

Naz Reid for a younger option. If they think they can develop him a bit more.

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I was just thinking Vuc is better than any of these guys but I wonder what the difference would be if they just signed Plumlee. Would it matter in wins and losses?

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May 4, 2023Liked by your friendly BullsBlogger

According to DPM. You'd actually gain a tiny bit with Plumlee. Plumlee has a 0.2 DPM. Vuc is -0.4 . You'd be gaining significantly better defense and sacrificing shooting. Although fwiw Plumlee is a sneaky good passer for a big.

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From that list of cheap 'replacements' I'm intrigued in Chimezie Metu.

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And isn't BBall Paul also a free agent this coming offseason? He may not be THAT cheap though after this - so far - successful offseason for him.

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You're right! Wasn't on that list for some reason

He's restricted

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May 3, 2023·edited May 3, 2023Author

Trade targets that won't cost much outside of money

Clint Capela (30)

Jusuf Nurkic (30)

Richaun Holmes (31)

Daniel Theis (32)

JaVale McGee (37)

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Are those ages? Some of these don't seem right. Capela is only just turning 29 in a couple weeks.

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Yes... Though it's from Sportrac and I didn't verify

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Of these options. I'd prefer Capela or Nurk. But I'd be cautious ina deal for either. Capela appears to be declining as a player. And Nurkic is injury prone.

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Nurk seems like slightly better defending Vuc but worse shooter and rebounder and way more injury prone

no thanks

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maybe could get an asset for taking on Nurkic's long-term deal (3yr, $18M), because yeah otherwise he presents a lot of the same problems Vuc does

loosening the protections on the pick they owe us?

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What would people think of Zach for Dejounte Murray and Capela?

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That's interesting. I wonder if the Hawks would have interest in that or if Murray is more the guy they want to build around now?

My other concern would be whether that is just setting the Bulls up to be a 5-8 seed indefinitely?

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Murray + DeRozan has been seen before.

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This is interesting, and I could see why both teams would do it. Since I'm always trying to ship DeMar out of town, maybe DeMar and Caruso for Murray and Capela? Murray and LaVine are Pacific Northwest buds. It's a feel-good story. People will love it.

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May 4, 2023Liked by your friendly BullsBlogger

They aren't entertaining anything like DeMar for Murray.

From just a basic common sense perspective, they've invested too much in Murray. They're going to flip him for a 34 year old guy who can't shoot on an expiring deal? No GM would consider that no matter how many feisty role players you add in.

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May 5, 2023·edited May 5, 2023

I think calling Caruso a "feisty role player" is a bit of an undersell for a guy who is likely to get named to the all-defensive team. I do agree the Hawks are unlikely to move on from the Trae/Murray pairing after one season. It has from the outset felt like kind of an odd pairing to me. Of the two, I would expect that Atlanta would probably want to move Trae, who I want no part of.

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They would never do that deal. Adding a high usage % player with Trae. Makes Young way less valuable to his team. On the only side of the court he contributes to winning.

The Hawks would also get worse defensively as a team with this deal. Something they cant afford to do.

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depends on what the long term goals are.

Would rather try and get Okongwu if we're getting an ATL center

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trade targets who would cost assets but would be way better than Vuc (brought these up in the playoffs post)

KAT

Gobert

Ayton

Myles Turner

Jarrett Allen

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May 3, 2023·edited May 3, 2023

Preference if they went this route is Allen. Neutral on offense. Excellent on the defensive end.

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My preference would be Ayton, but probably harder to get.

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May 4, 2023·edited May 4, 2023

I would've chosen him, but too often I've seen him look uninterested in games. And not rebound. That said. He'd be my second choice. If the Bulls could get him to consistently play hard.

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Yeah the Bulls certainly haven't shaken Patrick Williams from that, so Ayton would be risky in that respect

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Is there a Zach + ? for KAT path? I'm no KAT stan, but he's the kind of big you need to pair with DeMar. Something like Zach and Caruso for KAT and Conley? Conley, Coby, DeMar, PWill, and KAT surrounds DeMar with shooting is a plausible playoff team.

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I think that's a good idea. I also don't like KAT but LaVine has similar issues. It'd make Joe Cowley quit the beat so that's another positive.

I don't think Minnesota is ready quite yet to cut bait on KAT+Gobert, but your trade idea would be enticing to them. Maybe LaVine throws his weight around (Klutch->Shams) and says he doesn't want to be in Minneapolis as second-fiddle to Anthony Edwards. But he'd be a good fit there.

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I feel like I had read at one point that Zach still has fond feelings for the Timberwolves franchise? That said, being there might limit his Mountain Dew money, so on top of any second-fiddle-feelings he might be nonplussed about that. You could see an Ant, Zach, and Gobert triad working pretty well, but I'd also expect Minny to stay the course for the time being and at least run it back to start next year.

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Why would Minnesota want two shooting guards?

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May 4, 2023·edited May 4, 2023Author

eh, Edwards is built. Gobert cleans everything up defensively.

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Ant could guard 3s for a bit bc he has the frame but he shouldn't be a fulltime 3. Zach is definitely not a 3. You'd have to have Ant be the 1 and Zach as the 2 which is problematic offensively

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why are we trying to build around DeMar?

time to start thinking long term not on how to help a 35 year old try and win 43 games

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dunno why, but that's what the Bulls want to do

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I have a strong preference to ship DeMar, but I don't see any other way a KAT trade works other than including Zach. If the Bulls were going a "win now with DeMar" path, I could see it. And then you make the argument that you're actually building long-term around KAT, who is actually a bit younger than Zach. That said, I think building around KAT is a specious plan.

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also, KAT+Zach is creating a loser-ball vortex that will suck in the entire franchise

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KAT is ultra talented but we saw how it looked when a team tries to build around him.

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May 8, 2023Liked by your friendly BullsBlogger

I've thought about Ayton as a trade target since last year. Seems like he and PHX are mutually disgruntled from time to time. New owner, maybe still juiced up to make trades? I won't even guess what that trade would have to look like, but if I were AK that would be my first line of inquiry.

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Ayton has such soft hands and his shot looks so good but he's just so easy to neutralize. I look at all the big men Chris Paul amplified - Tyson Chandler and David West and DeAndre Jordan, even Clint Capela averaged almost 17ppg (!) and I wonder if Ayton's numbers aren't going to collapse once he's moved. He seems like less than his stats as it is.

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Yep, that's a risk with Ayton. I'll even add another one. Because I actually think he can create looks for himself pretty easily, unlike those non-West guys you mentioned. But it's all that dinky midrange shit that teams will let him have. I could also see a scenario where he goes to a bullshit team like this one, puts up 22 a game, and also just completely stops trying on defense. So then he's like Christian Wood without the 3s. That would make him the worst starting center in the league.

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I really can't get behind that. For a team like the Bulls, where they're just kind of aimless, I'd have a hard and fast rule against taking on underperforming guys on big contracts.

Stay young and flexible. Like, I saw that there's a Vuc for Christian Wood double S&T rumor. I'd much prefer that, with the assumption we'd getting Wood at something like $14M for 2-3 years than paying Ayton $34M/yr for 3. Ayton's probably a better player, but especially for a team that's hard capping itself at the luxury tax line, they're so much better off conserving that money.

Same thing with D'Angelo Russell. I saw another rumor that the Lakers wanted to S&T him for DeMar. Is Russell better than Coby? Eh... not appreciably. Just higher usage and a little more experienced. But for a middle of the road team, if you are paying Coby $12-15M, you've got options. If you're paying DLo $25M, you're locked into a long term pile of meh.

A team like the Bulls. DLo and Ayton are the NBA equivalents of buying a new car. You pay 30-50% more and are stuck with a big loan. Buy a car that's 2 years old and you get pretty much the same thing for less.

The Bulls need a GM that knows this, and knows how to shop for used cars.

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Bulls are going to wait out Ball's issues, because doing anything else while there is hope is really bad for business. Given that, and given that letting Vuc go would free up offensive opportunities across the team, I don't see that replacing him even comes into it. Get a warm body and let the rest of the team fill the offensive vacuum.

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May 4, 2023·edited May 4, 2023

Chicago could trade Vuc to Orlando for Carter Jr. Chicago would need to throw in at least 2 first rounders for Orlando to even consider it though.

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How about Luka Garza? Vuc2.0.

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May 4, 2023·edited May 4, 2023Liked by your friendly BullsBlogger

More like Vuc 0.5

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Realistically, if Drummond picks up his option, then sign Dedman and Leonard to minimums and go 3-headed monster.

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If they did that I wouldnt watch next season.

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May 4, 2023Liked by your friendly BullsBlogger

21 feet of shit

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Gottlieb is on the wacky zany fun show CHGO where they all unapologetically cheerlead for basically every Bulls player, so the culture he's in prevents him from not ultimately defaulting to "X Bulls player is great, A- for the 2023 season, sign him at near league high for his position because that's just what the market is **shrugs**". If Gottlieb was on a different media platform he'd likely not come to this cognitive dissonance conclusions. Him and that guy who got fired from NBC Sports would be a great Bulls analytics podcast if it ever were possible.

Those Steven Adams and Brook Lopez salaries look appropriate for Vuc, wherever he lands. Probably a $13M a year, 4th or 5th best player. But as much as I'm probably a slightly bigger Vuc fan than most here, I'd prefer to see him walk, because this roster needs a firm kick in the arse.

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even I can't listen to a Bulls podcast every day, but I did check out their season review of Vuc and it was all laudatory, can't ask for anything more!

I don't think they're fanboys, more like a Stockholm Syndrome knowing the Bulls aren't going to get better players so instead lie to yourself that the current players are good enough. This is happening with Coby White too.

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Yeah, the biggest disconnect for me this season is how Bulls casts talk about him vs my eye test of him. I think he's utterly expendable.

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he doesn't get the 'empty calorie' label that LaVine or DeRozan gets, for some reason

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May 4, 2023Liked by your friendly BullsBlogger

The new owner of the Suns is on Bill Simmons's podcast this week. A stark contrast from what we hear from Bulls' ownership and management. Juxtapose this interview with Jerry Reinsdorf's recent comments and your head will explode.

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May 8, 2023Liked by your friendly BullsBlogger

This guy invited Isiah Thomas to sit next to him at the game last night, and then immediately got into a fight with the Nuggets' star player. I don't think those two things are unrelated. Proximity to Isiah should be an absolutely terrifying prospect for the Suns Enthusiast.

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yes, regret to inform that Mat Ishbia has quickly gone to "also bad" when it comes to team owners. Also needs another 't' on that name

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If you were to remake the Isiah Thomas Knicks with today's players, who would they be?

Gotta think Westbrook would be there. Trey Young is a bit too young but in a few years if he keeps that efficiency down he would make all-Isiah first team. Malik Beasley was All-Isiah before he was born. This is possibly Phoenix's future.

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breaking rumor/news, Darnell says AK just got a secret contract extension https://substack.com/profile/3012-your-friendly-bullsblogger/note/c-15593082

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Lol. Of course he did.

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What exactly has he done to deserve an extension?...

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Kept the team out of the tax?

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The European Rick Hahn! The latest Cash Considerations pod about JR is essential listening and probably deserves an extended cut if this is true.

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