What can we reasonably expect from a Lavine trade?
How many teams have the expendable salaries and the fit to trade for him? The list is not long. Lakers, Charlotte, Golden State ... ?
If any these teams want to trade for him it means that they rate him significantly higher than pretty much anyone here. Why do we think this is the case? If all of us think that he is not a winning player, why would professional front offices think differently?
If he is moved, it is because of some agency black magic whose logic defies me. And that means a Laker trade, which is the only way I can see us even getting a nominal asset in return.
For any other team, I just do not see how he is valued as a net positive on that contract (or even 75% of that contract). We might be stuck with him for the foreseeable future, as unbearable as that seems for everyone involved.
That final quote is absolutely mind-blowing. I mean, you might as well just write "AK went all-in on a win-now team and failed spectacularly. He's too proud to admit that though, so he'll continue making marginal moves here and there hoping something magically fixes the mess he made."
The fact that KC can basically tell the whole world AK isn't willing to admit his mistakes and move on and it not really be that big of a deal is absolutely crazy.
I know it's easy to pick on KC, but today's article may be a new low. Like he might as well have left Jerry's signature at the bottom. We all know that article came straight from the top!
See, I don't think they actually tell KC shit. He just fawns and acts like whatever they do is whatever they were always going to do because it's the obvious thing to do.
If Reinsdorf went on Oprah tomorrow and said he was firing AKME and Donovan and had just conducted a series of mock executions of players to decide who was tough enough to be the team captain, KC would fawningly report that this is wholly consistent with the way the Bulls have always done things.
I was starting to get red-faced seeing this tweet deeming KC's latest story containing 'important' information, when it's just the same flaccid non-stance he's had the past 2 years
his word salad of "a feeling of imminent change hung over this franchise even before [LaVine's trade request]" would be news - that was game eleven! - but he likely just means the public player quotes of this being their last chance
but then I remembered indeed he doesn't know anything unique so I calmed down
Joe Cowley made a comment on X where he sneered at fans who were asking for firings and basically said they weren't knowledgeable. Because the role of chicago media is not to hold the management accountable, its to hold the fans accountable for not being knowledgeable enough to accept the Bulls have no choice but to be mediocre and boring. I've said this for years - the Bulls media is as lazy and boring as the team and management. Its Bears to December, Cubs in March and the Bulls don't matter unless their "good" and JR is perfectly fine with that as are Cowley and K.C.
Chicago sports media has historically had no problem unloading on teams/players which makes this situation so curious. I guess Reinsdorf has the luxury of taking cover under the current Bears debacle for the next 6 weeks until the media retrains its eyes on the Bulls.
But on the Bears front, I think Bears fans calling for immediate mass firings ARE misinformed as there's no backup plan to run a football team (even one going nowhere) and develop/evaluate players without a coaching staff. But really anyone can be pulled off the street as an interim Bulls coach (it's happened at least a few times in recent memory).
Agree with everything here, but out of curiosity what makes Drummond an “unserious player”? Obviously he has his flaws, but it at least looks like he’s trying out there. He’s not the answer, but I’m always happy to see him on the court rather than Vuc.
he is too out of shape to play long, or have sustained stretches of effectiveness. He has undeniable talent and skills, but then just like lazily foul on both ends.
also I never got over him last year TWICE having to pause entering the game to take off jewelry
I disagree with the out of shape part. Drummond will draw interest if the Bulls tear it down. Drummond is a space cadet at times, none of us can doubt that. But he's in shape. The reason he can't play a ton of minutes has more to do with him being a space cadet than being out of shape.
Sadly, the Bulls are just an unserious team. There’s no accountability, no real goals, no meaningful player development, and nothing to show for AKMEs tenure other than having been in first for a while before Lonzo’s knee exploded.
maybe one day after everything else exposed, the Lonzo rhetoric will be exposed as well.
It was just 29 games before he first sat out with knee issues. They were 19-10, and famously lost every matchup against a good team. Yet AK clings to that, and 14-9 after all star break, but not any more examples of actual poor performance as significant
I think it was that Zach & others still thinking like they did when Lonzo was around. Ball movement (basket, not Lonzo) was a thing they were used to, so they continued as a team.
With no PG to continue to find the open man, they eventually devolved back to their worst habits.
Basically, Zach & co would get frustrated when they would be open and no one would see them or would flub the pass. That led to them sitting on the ball to get their opportunities, which upped their individual opportunities, but decreased the quality.
My theory is that it was due to DeMar playing out of his mind. Dude was putting up superstar numbers and I think everyone just felt like they should let him be the offense.
I dunno, the team was a mirage in some respects but they also had a lot of guys missing time due to COVID. League was weird at the time. I think there was enough where I'd have been ok with seeing what everyone looked like fully healthy, but then Lonzo's knee self-destructed.
However, I suspect him playing out of his mind was partially due to getting good looks from other players. I did a quick scan of post-Lonzo stats and their assists started high immediately after Lonzo went down and steadily decreased. They dropped a full two assists per game from Feb-April, with 1.5 of that coming in April alone when they had their collapse.
That is at least consistent with my theory, even if it doesn't prove it.
To be fair though, even if the Lonzo era was fools gold they were a really fun team to watch. Lonzo's knee getting worse after their medical staff got a hold of it was a surprise to them (not to anyone else!). But the response being to sign Dragic, a couple of months of Pat Bev, and now Carter is just so far from what an effective FO should do that there's absolutely no redemption arc for AKME. They just have the reek of the Reinsdorf lackey pile, the team stinks, and there's no path to relevance.
Take me back to the few months of this decade when I enjoyed Bulls basketball!
I think the Bulls go 1-5 in their next six. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost them all. But I could see a scenario where they're looking at 6-18 on December 15th, around the time more players become eligible for trade. Saying nothing of the teams the Bulls will be looking up at in the standings (pretty much all of them), they'll be sitting in the basement of the conference with Washington and Detroit.
As of today, Detroit is on a 13 game losing streak, but they have a couple of guys in Thompson and Duren who look to have legitimate futures. Washington is a clown car.
The only moralizing that can be done at this point is: we're not Washington. That's all there is to it at this point: pointing and shrugging at the Washington Wizards.
If that's not rock bottom, then I guess AKME is content to knock the bottom out of hell.
It's remarkable how collectively apathetic anyone associated with this organization is. Fans, players, decision makers. It's so deeply stale.
For a sports franchise that had arguably the greatest decade long run in modern sports, this has to be rock bottom. Not being competitively bad. Instead, deeply apathetic.
What's worse, this arguably describes every Chicago major sports team currently other than maybe the Cubs. It's not a good time to be a Chicago sports fan
even the Cubs were in that apathetic mire after they unloaded the WS roster. I don't follow hockey, but i was getting similar vibes from friends of mine that have been following the BHawks until they drafted this rookie.
It's like all the Chicago sports owners had a meeting and colluded to make the sports experience in Chicago as agonizing as possible, and they've all been successful--Bears, Sox, Cubs, Bulls...i don't even know why i continue to watch any of them.
What's to say? It's obvious none of the players wanna be here. It's more obvious they've tuned the coach out. And the coach has seldom held a veteran accountable. The one time he did, Zach whined and it never happened again. Complaining about personnel and their usage is meaningless when nothing is gonna change. It's entirely possible that Zach plays the entire year in Chicago because the in season offers are so bad. Hard to get excited about a teardown when AKME has lost every negotiation he's been involved in.
Addressing more new curious narratives around the Bulls... The question isn't whether Zach is worth $13M more than Herro, the question is if Miami thinks Zach can close the gap enough to be a threat to BOS/ MIL in the playoffs (in a Ray Allen role, as I always prefer to envision Zach's optimal ceiling).
1) Tyler Herro seems pretty overrated to me; he actually makes Zach look accurately rated by comparison. Zach scores at 4 levels; from deep, midrange, at the rim, and gets to the line. Herro scores at the rim and gets to the free throw line much less than Zach. He's also fairly inefficient I believe for players that shoot a high volume, significantly worse than Zach. Probably a wash on other facets of their games, but no mistake Herro is a poor man's version of Zach.
2) Sure, Herro is about 24 but I don't see a whole lot more untapped potential in his game. Too early to call him injury-prone but he's likely going to avoid contact more in a self-preservation effort going forward which speaks to point #1 not improving at interior scoring or getting to the line more. So the whole Youth argument is a bit misleading as well.
3) Jimmy Butler is 34, and that championship window won't be open much longer. You have to shoot your shot eventually if you're Miami, and you have assets to deal. They run the risk of waiting to long to deal for another piece for a run
That all said, he is about $13M/ yr cheaper than Zach, and won't likely expect it to be "his team" causing all the unnecessary drama that Zach does, and controlled through 2027, so I'd be fine with him as a return. I think Miami is just posturing leaking reports they're not interested
For sure. With them the known quantity is you have an aging superstar and everything revolves around his expiration date. They have a history of excellence which is why I'd be surprised if they didn't go all in this year for a Chip... With expanded playoffs there should be less teams dealing stars so it's their gamble if they think they can do better than Zach. They likely can but this is staring them in the face now, ready to go
I agree and think it is an unlikely trade spot including for reasons you've listed. My primary points are just that the Heat have to make a move here eventually, and that the "Herro is basically as good as Zach" narrative is very weak.
Luckily I think Zach can make sense for about 12 other teams in the league as well.
Riley put word out to his Miami guys that he's not interested due to LaVine's salary. The money is too long and could impact what they wanna do. Paraphrasing but if Zach goes to Miami it's because AKME gave Riley their wallet and Zach.
You said Herro should be traded for nothing less than a capital-S star; is that your valuation of him? I know that's what Miami and their fans think he's worth but I think that's unrealistic.
Zach is definitely a tier better than Herro IMO, and Miami's Jimmy window is closing rapidly. So they should ask themselves, are you going to get a better opportunity than Zach (and previously Lillard), or do you want to get cute and hold on to your "assets" like Herro and draft picks?
Right I'm aware, this was my response to why I think this is just Riley posturing through the media and I don't actually believe him, and furthermore that Herro really is not that close of a player to Zach although it appears to be the sexy comparison to make currently
Well I went over that line of thinking in the last BaB article comments, why I don't find it productive or interesting to discuss this oncoming rebuild under the context of AK being incompetent idiots. Even if AK is incompetent, it's more interesting to me at least to see what moves the team could make through an average, reasonable GM's abilities instead. Just constantly discussing the Bulls in the light of AK being a moron, Billy and Vuc as scapegoats, could have been a contender if only Lonzo... I just can't do it anymore it's not productive
Edit: Just realized I think my benchmark is that if it's already become an accepted Bulls narrative on Reddit/Bulls, then it's probably at least 6 months beyond being an interesting talking point with the team
Ok, I guess. But the Bulls don't have an average VP/GM. The reality is they have a bottom three front office. I'm being kind with that assessment too. AKME has literally gotten the worst end of every negotiation except for Caruso's deal. There is overwhelming evidence that AKME will bungle most of the moves. I cant wish for AKME to suddenly be a shrewd negotiator when he's never shown that ability. I'll try to limit my comments to you in light of your commentary. No shade, either. We're just arguing from two different places. I'll try to respect that going forward.
I appreciate it, believe me. But the "AK sucks" angle was sort of fully vetted out last season and it's now the base level expectation.
But it's one thing to be black pilled about the past and another to be black pilled about the future; if I assume AK will get robbed at every transaction during this rebuild then to an extent what's the point of being a fan the next few years? I'd rather hold them to the standard of an average, rational GM and then just not get disappointed when they meet their old expectations again. It's either that or become a Bucks fan and Fuck That!
I obviously don't have a lot of respect for "Bulls historian" KC Johnson as our primary local media guy, but whether the Bulls were looking to swap out Donovan or not, the Bulls are going to leak this to KC regardless. So I don't see this as really news-worthy or indicative of them keeping or relieving Donovan of his duties at the end of the season.
And as an aside, Jerry is loyal to his buddies to a fault. He's going to try to do right by Billy or any coach that toes the company line, until the last possible moment; Always. It's the Tom Thibodeau's of the world that Jerry cannot abide by; re: the free thinkers. He kept Fred Hoiberg longer than he was supposed to. He hired a gradeschool PE coach after that just because he said all the right things to the media and almost had AK re-hire him again. And he hired freaking Tony LaRussa to take advantage of the White Sox slim championship window a couple years ago..... Tony LaRussa! That tells you everything you need to know about Jerry's mindset and business philosophy. Buddy Loyalty > Winning
The part that sucks is that there is a way to cobble together a functional offense. Unfortunately, Billy couldn't sell ice in Hell. No way he could get these guys to change what they're doing on the fly.
Another thing I wonder about is Zach's marketability regarding being a Klutch guy... This should hold some value, no? Such as, since Zach is a Klutch guy, then if you trade for him he may not be your alpha but you might be sold on the fact he could later attract a Klutch alpha to your team later on. So you get Zach as bait essentially and can live with the fact that he's maybe not very valuable as a max slot guy in and of himself. These agencies like Klutch, they're basically rival unions within a union, so I would think this is a perk of Zach joining with them which a future team could use to possibly exploit the Klutch ties
Vooch is Pau Gasol 2.0. Pau was over the hill when he came to the Bulls and was the most lead-footed defender I had ever seen, but he had no trouble trashing his teammates whenever the team lost. Pau, unlike Vooch, was a genuine all-star in his prime, but that did nothing for the Bulls.
Pau was an all star the two years he was in Chicago, and if he had not injured in the series against the Cavs in the second round... Bulls were up 2-1 at some point. I'm not saying that was because of him, that team was much better than this one, but Gasol was the second best player on a great team and Vooch is just ridiculous at this point. They are not even comparable.
Also, he was making just 7M per year! So great contract for an all star.
We can agree to disagree. This is going to be a very long post, because Pau with the Bulls is a sore spot for me. We had season tickets behind the basket in Section 200 during the two years he played here, which allowed me to focus closely on Pau’s defense for a half every game, and I have never seen anyone else that immobile on an NBA court. If you were foolish enough to drive right at him he’d block your shot because of his height, but if he was just a few steps from the basket, he was toast. (Even my wife, who knows nothing about basketball, noticed.) He was entirely incapable of boxing out, and most of his rebounds were uncontested - again because of his height, he got to balls his teammates would otherwise have gotten to anyway. He also played too many minutes (in part because he had reportedly insisted on being a starter as a condition of his signing) and so often had no legs toward the end of games, which meant that he stopped hitting shots - one of the only things (aside from passing) that he was good at. So I would argue that he was an all-star with the Bulls because of his reputation and his stats, but while his reputation was earned, the stats were empty. His signing also had the knock-on effect of pushing Joakim Noah to the four, a position for which he was entirely unsuited. (Yes, Noah was no longer the player that he had been, but he still had something to offer on defense and on the boards and might have regained his rhythm offensively had he been able to play regularly as a center.) Also, because Taj was still a valuable rotation piece, Thibs had to play Mirotić at the three when it was obvious even then that the four was his natural position, and I’m convinced that this stunted Niko’s development. For all those reasons I consider the Gasol signing to have been a huge mistake, but he actually might have been a net positive had he been willing to come off the bench and play 20 - 25 minutes a game. He and Taj might have been a decent offensive-defensive combination, and similarly Niko with Noah. And finally, I don’t recall Pau’s injury to have been much of a factor in the Cleveland series. Pau put up nice numbers in game 1 (I just looked it up), but did very little in game 3, which the Bulls also won. The Bulls were a decent team then (sadly for the very last time), but the Heat were better; the Bulls would have lost with or without Gasol.
I'm sort of convinced that the problem was not that Pau wasn't good enough, but that Pau turned out to be too good. Like, if Derrick had been a reasonable version of his past self and Pau had played as poorly as he had in the Lakers, Thibs would have no problem keeping Gasol as a fake starter at 25 mins a game.
But with Rose a shadow of himself, Dunleavy aging by the minute, a combo of Snell and rookies McDermott and Mirotic, and Gasol playing like an All Star, there was no way of doing that.
Season tickets for a PO team, that sounds amazing dude.
I can buy that the fit of Pau in the Bulls was not great, and that his signing pushed some rotational moves that did not benefit the production/development of other players, but I do think that he made the team better for the price. I agree that with or without him, the Bulls were not doing anything important that season, but at least. If there was another better option for the Bulls at that price, I don't know really.
My point is that he still was a good player those years, especially the first one, not just for being an all star starter, but also an All NBA 2nd team. He posted some good games, he could score at the post and from the outside and his understanding with Butler was great. For sure, the usage of him that the Bulls did could have been better. The second year was worst, that's true, he was all star because of the Butler injury, and while the Hoiberg system didn't fit him, he still had some value.
What I'm trying to say is that, while he had great shooting, passing and IQ and poor defense and athleticism, Vucevic has the same flaws that him but is not even near at the level Pau was offering in offense, where Vucevic is really struggling this year, with poor percentages and eternal post up possessions.
If you were making some true wholesale changes, here's what the stats say:
I looked at EPM. It's a solid stat, though might not be the best with so little sample size, but it's as good as anything for a generalized comparison.
- Caruso +1.4
- LaVine +0.7
- DDR -0.4
- Vuc -0.7
- Coby -1.2
- PAW -1.8
- Drummond -1.8
- Carter -2.6
- Ayo -2.8
- Craig -3.1
The biggest issue for the Bulls is their general terribleness. They are bad offensively and defensively. However, I am basically at the point where I don't see any way their offense can work, so let's just put a good defense out there, hope for more transition and semi-transition opportunities. Plus, good defensive players are less useful off the bench. You need your good defenders playing overlapping minutes to good offense on the other side to negate their effect. Having Caruso in against the Bucks bench and guarding Cam Payne is less useful than having him guard Dame. Here's the Bulls best defensive lineup (also referencing EPM and other advanced stats)
PG - Carter
SG - Caruso
SF - PAW
PF - Craig
C - Vuc
Notice a problem? Our "stars" don't play D, and Vuc is sketchy on that end. My best idea for what to do?
Start Caruso, PAW, LaVine, DDR, Vuc. None of our point guards are good anyway. We'd be pretty 1-3 and solid enough defensively. I'd look to trade LaVine or DDR ASAP.
Props to AK for actually making a public appearance before the trade deadline. With that being said, what absolute bullshit. You're disappointed in what exactly? The fact that you've brought back the same team for three straight years despite clear evidence your mid-3 don't actually play well together? I mean, you had to have known the team would eventually get sick of this same shit and start to quit on you, right?
And you say this is your responsibility. What exactly does that mean? You give no indication of what direction you might be heading. All we know is Zach will likely get traded because he embarrassed you by publicly asking out. We also know a rebuild is highly unlikely because KC let the cat out of the bag that you're too proud to admit that cutting the previous rebuild short in a feeble attempt at building a contender spectacularly failed.
If I had to guess, my expectation is that Zach gets moved sometime this year and that's probably the extent of moves AK makes. It'll likely be to the Lakers too since they seem to be the only team seriously interested in him. Most of the other rumored teams have either expressed disinterest or are East teams and I'm sure AK doesn't want to give Zach to the direct competition.
He'll probably get fleeced on the Zach trade too. It'll probably be some combination of DLo, random salary filler and the Lakers 2029 first round pick. But he'll sell it as the Bulls finally getting a point guard and future star (that is currently only 12 years old)!
What can we reasonably expect from a Lavine trade?
How many teams have the expendable salaries and the fit to trade for him? The list is not long. Lakers, Charlotte, Golden State ... ?
If any these teams want to trade for him it means that they rate him significantly higher than pretty much anyone here. Why do we think this is the case? If all of us think that he is not a winning player, why would professional front offices think differently?
If he is moved, it is because of some agency black magic whose logic defies me. And that means a Laker trade, which is the only way I can see us even getting a nominal asset in return.
For any other team, I just do not see how he is valued as a net positive on that contract (or even 75% of that contract). We might be stuck with him for the foreseeable future, as unbearable as that seems for everyone involved.
Huge fan of “karnisplaining”
That final quote is absolutely mind-blowing. I mean, you might as well just write "AK went all-in on a win-now team and failed spectacularly. He's too proud to admit that though, so he'll continue making marginal moves here and there hoping something magically fixes the mess he made."
The fact that KC can basically tell the whole world AK isn't willing to admit his mistakes and move on and it not really be that big of a deal is absolutely crazy.
I know it's easy to pick on KC, but today's article may be a new low. Like he might as well have left Jerry's signature at the bottom. We all know that article came straight from the top!
See, I don't think they actually tell KC shit. He just fawns and acts like whatever they do is whatever they were always going to do because it's the obvious thing to do.
If Reinsdorf went on Oprah tomorrow and said he was firing AKME and Donovan and had just conducted a series of mock executions of players to decide who was tough enough to be the team captain, KC would fawningly report that this is wholly consistent with the way the Bulls have always done things.
::chuckles:: "that's just not how they operate!"
KC does have the scoop that the team MAY do something with the assistants
I'm assuming that means Billy Jr. can be exiled to Hoffman Estates, but back by Christmas no doubt
I was starting to get red-faced seeing this tweet deeming KC's latest story containing 'important' information, when it's just the same flaccid non-stance he's had the past 2 years
https://twitter.com/Kevin_NBCS/status/1729580396344377664
his word salad of "a feeling of imminent change hung over this franchise even before [LaVine's trade request]" would be news - that was game eleven! - but he likely just means the public player quotes of this being their last chance
but then I remembered indeed he doesn't know anything unique so I calmed down
Joe Cowley made a comment on X where he sneered at fans who were asking for firings and basically said they weren't knowledgeable. Because the role of chicago media is not to hold the management accountable, its to hold the fans accountable for not being knowledgeable enough to accept the Bulls have no choice but to be mediocre and boring. I've said this for years - the Bulls media is as lazy and boring as the team and management. Its Bears to December, Cubs in March and the Bulls don't matter unless their "good" and JR is perfectly fine with that as are Cowley and K.C.
Chicago sports media has historically had no problem unloading on teams/players which makes this situation so curious. I guess Reinsdorf has the luxury of taking cover under the current Bears debacle for the next 6 weeks until the media retrains its eyes on the Bulls.
But on the Bears front, I think Bears fans calling for immediate mass firings ARE misinformed as there's no backup plan to run a football team (even one going nowhere) and develop/evaluate players without a coaching staff. But really anyone can be pulled off the street as an interim Bulls coach (it's happened at least a few times in recent memory).
agreed, which is why a Donovan firing yesterday would've made sense under the cover of a "big" Bears game.
I suppose next such opportunity would be Sunday CHRISTMAS EVE
the Bulls simply don't matter as much
The Athletic stopped sending Darnell with the team last season
Bulls (traditional) media sucks and is soft. I follow a few guys on Bulls YouTube and they're spitting hot fire, I love it.
Agree with everything here, but out of curiosity what makes Drummond an “unserious player”? Obviously he has his flaws, but it at least looks like he’s trying out there. He’s not the answer, but I’m always happy to see him on the court rather than Vuc.
he is too out of shape to play long, or have sustained stretches of effectiveness. He has undeniable talent and skills, but then just like lazily foul on both ends.
also I never got over him last year TWICE having to pause entering the game to take off jewelry
Yeah, fair enough.
I disagree with the out of shape part. Drummond will draw interest if the Bulls tear it down. Drummond is a space cadet at times, none of us can doubt that. But he's in shape. The reason he can't play a ton of minutes has more to do with him being a space cadet than being out of shape.
Seems like a good time to pull this out:
https://www.vulture.com/2022/06/nba-finals-andre-drummond-feet-joe-biden-jimmy-kimmel-live.html
Drummond showing off his ADBAF's starting around 2:33 of the video clip.
Sadly, the Bulls are just an unserious team. There’s no accountability, no real goals, no meaningful player development, and nothing to show for AKMEs tenure other than having been in first for a while before Lonzo’s knee exploded.
maybe one day after everything else exposed, the Lonzo rhetoric will be exposed as well.
It was just 29 games before he first sat out with knee issues. They were 19-10, and famously lost every matchup against a good team. Yet AK clings to that, and 14-9 after all star break, but not any more examples of actual poor performance as significant
I’ll admit, I definitely remembered them being better than that. Some excellent PR they’ve done
They fired off a 6 game win streak with Lonzo out. Which should've been impossible given how they talk about him
I think it was that Zach & others still thinking like they did when Lonzo was around. Ball movement (basket, not Lonzo) was a thing they were used to, so they continued as a team.
With no PG to continue to find the open man, they eventually devolved back to their worst habits.
Basically, Zach & co would get frustrated when they would be open and no one would see them or would flub the pass. That led to them sitting on the ball to get their opportunities, which upped their individual opportunities, but decreased the quality.
My theory is that it was due to DeMar playing out of his mind. Dude was putting up superstar numbers and I think everyone just felt like they should let him be the offense.
I dunno, the team was a mirage in some respects but they also had a lot of guys missing time due to COVID. League was weird at the time. I think there was enough where I'd have been ok with seeing what everyone looked like fully healthy, but then Lonzo's knee self-destructed.
That absolutely played into it, no doubt.
However, I suspect him playing out of his mind was partially due to getting good looks from other players. I did a quick scan of post-Lonzo stats and their assists started high immediately after Lonzo went down and steadily decreased. They dropped a full two assists per game from Feb-April, with 1.5 of that coming in April alone when they had their collapse.
That is at least consistent with my theory, even if it doesn't prove it.
To be fair though, even if the Lonzo era was fools gold they were a really fun team to watch. Lonzo's knee getting worse after their medical staff got a hold of it was a surprise to them (not to anyone else!). But the response being to sign Dragic, a couple of months of Pat Bev, and now Carter is just so far from what an effective FO should do that there's absolutely no redemption arc for AKME. They just have the reek of the Reinsdorf lackey pile, the team stinks, and there's no path to relevance.
Take me back to the few months of this decade when I enjoyed Bulls basketball!
I think the Bulls go 1-5 in their next six. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost them all. But I could see a scenario where they're looking at 6-18 on December 15th, around the time more players become eligible for trade. Saying nothing of the teams the Bulls will be looking up at in the standings (pretty much all of them), they'll be sitting in the basement of the conference with Washington and Detroit.
As of today, Detroit is on a 13 game losing streak, but they have a couple of guys in Thompson and Duren who look to have legitimate futures. Washington is a clown car.
The only moralizing that can be done at this point is: we're not Washington. That's all there is to it at this point: pointing and shrugging at the Washington Wizards.
If that's not rock bottom, then I guess AKME is content to knock the bottom out of hell.
and Washington has at least acknowledged it: hired a new front office and started demolition.
we're a ways away from even being Washington
Washington: rats leaving a sinking ship
Bulls: "this is fine" meme
It's remarkable how collectively apathetic anyone associated with this organization is. Fans, players, decision makers. It's so deeply stale.
For a sports franchise that had arguably the greatest decade long run in modern sports, this has to be rock bottom. Not being competitively bad. Instead, deeply apathetic.
What's worse, this arguably describes every Chicago major sports team currently other than maybe the Cubs. It's not a good time to be a Chicago sports fan
even the Cubs were in that apathetic mire after they unloaded the WS roster. I don't follow hockey, but i was getting similar vibes from friends of mine that have been following the BHawks until they drafted this rookie.
It's like all the Chicago sports owners had a meeting and colluded to make the sports experience in Chicago as agonizing as possible, and they've all been successful--Bears, Sox, Cubs, Bulls...i don't even know why i continue to watch any of them.
What's to say? It's obvious none of the players wanna be here. It's more obvious they've tuned the coach out. And the coach has seldom held a veteran accountable. The one time he did, Zach whined and it never happened again. Complaining about personnel and their usage is meaningless when nothing is gonna change. It's entirely possible that Zach plays the entire year in Chicago because the in season offers are so bad. Hard to get excited about a teardown when AKME has lost every negotiation he's been involved in.
Addressing more new curious narratives around the Bulls... The question isn't whether Zach is worth $13M more than Herro, the question is if Miami thinks Zach can close the gap enough to be a threat to BOS/ MIL in the playoffs (in a Ray Allen role, as I always prefer to envision Zach's optimal ceiling).
1) Tyler Herro seems pretty overrated to me; he actually makes Zach look accurately rated by comparison. Zach scores at 4 levels; from deep, midrange, at the rim, and gets to the line. Herro scores at the rim and gets to the free throw line much less than Zach. He's also fairly inefficient I believe for players that shoot a high volume, significantly worse than Zach. Probably a wash on other facets of their games, but no mistake Herro is a poor man's version of Zach.
2) Sure, Herro is about 24 but I don't see a whole lot more untapped potential in his game. Too early to call him injury-prone but he's likely going to avoid contact more in a self-preservation effort going forward which speaks to point #1 not improving at interior scoring or getting to the line more. So the whole Youth argument is a bit misleading as well.
3) Jimmy Butler is 34, and that championship window won't be open much longer. You have to shoot your shot eventually if you're Miami, and you have assets to deal. They run the risk of waiting to long to deal for another piece for a run
That all said, he is about $13M/ yr cheaper than Zach, and won't likely expect it to be "his team" causing all the unnecessary drama that Zach does, and controlled through 2027, so I'd be fine with him as a return. I think Miami is just posturing leaking reports they're not interested
For sure. With them the known quantity is you have an aging superstar and everything revolves around his expiration date. They have a history of excellence which is why I'd be surprised if they didn't go all in this year for a Chip... With expanded playoffs there should be less teams dealing stars so it's their gamble if they think they can do better than Zach. They likely can but this is staring them in the face now, ready to go
I agree and think it is an unlikely trade spot including for reasons you've listed. My primary points are just that the Heat have to make a move here eventually, and that the "Herro is basically as good as Zach" narrative is very weak.
Luckily I think Zach can make sense for about 12 other teams in the league as well.
Riley put word out to his Miami guys that he's not interested due to LaVine's salary. The money is too long and could impact what they wanna do. Paraphrasing but if Zach goes to Miami it's because AKME gave Riley their wallet and Zach.
I don't get the Herro valuation. Guy seems way overrated to me
You said Herro should be traded for nothing less than a capital-S star; is that your valuation of him? I know that's what Miami and their fans think he's worth but I think that's unrealistic.
Zach is definitely a tier better than Herro IMO, and Miami's Jimmy window is closing rapidly. So they should ask themselves, are you going to get a better opportunity than Zach (and previously Lillard), or do you want to get cute and hold on to your "assets" like Herro and draft picks?
The thing is the Heat didn't got into the position they're in (contending) by being "cute" with their assets.
The Bulls got themselves into the position they're in (awful) by handing out picks like party favors to get very marginal short-term upgrades.
Right I'm aware, this was my response to why I think this is just Riley posturing through the media and I don't actually believe him, and furthermore that Herro really is not that close of a player to Zach although it appears to be the sexy comparison to make currently
The part that I don't think is posturing is when I said that Zach goes to Miami if AKME sends their wallets.
Well I went over that line of thinking in the last BaB article comments, why I don't find it productive or interesting to discuss this oncoming rebuild under the context of AK being incompetent idiots. Even if AK is incompetent, it's more interesting to me at least to see what moves the team could make through an average, reasonable GM's abilities instead. Just constantly discussing the Bulls in the light of AK being a moron, Billy and Vuc as scapegoats, could have been a contender if only Lonzo... I just can't do it anymore it's not productive
Edit: Just realized I think my benchmark is that if it's already become an accepted Bulls narrative on Reddit/Bulls, then it's probably at least 6 months beyond being an interesting talking point with the team
Ok, I guess. But the Bulls don't have an average VP/GM. The reality is they have a bottom three front office. I'm being kind with that assessment too. AKME has literally gotten the worst end of every negotiation except for Caruso's deal. There is overwhelming evidence that AKME will bungle most of the moves. I cant wish for AKME to suddenly be a shrewd negotiator when he's never shown that ability. I'll try to limit my comments to you in light of your commentary. No shade, either. We're just arguing from two different places. I'll try to respect that going forward.
I appreciate it, believe me. But the "AK sucks" angle was sort of fully vetted out last season and it's now the base level expectation.
But it's one thing to be black pilled about the past and another to be black pilled about the future; if I assume AK will get robbed at every transaction during this rebuild then to an extent what's the point of being a fan the next few years? I'd rather hold them to the standard of an average, rational GM and then just not get disappointed when they meet their old expectations again. It's either that or become a Bucks fan and Fuck That!
I obviously don't have a lot of respect for "Bulls historian" KC Johnson as our primary local media guy, but whether the Bulls were looking to swap out Donovan or not, the Bulls are going to leak this to KC regardless. So I don't see this as really news-worthy or indicative of them keeping or relieving Donovan of his duties at the end of the season.
And as an aside, Jerry is loyal to his buddies to a fault. He's going to try to do right by Billy or any coach that toes the company line, until the last possible moment; Always. It's the Tom Thibodeau's of the world that Jerry cannot abide by; re: the free thinkers. He kept Fred Hoiberg longer than he was supposed to. He hired a gradeschool PE coach after that just because he said all the right things to the media and almost had AK re-hire him again. And he hired freaking Tony LaRussa to take advantage of the White Sox slim championship window a couple years ago..... Tony LaRussa! That tells you everything you need to know about Jerry's mindset and business philosophy. Buddy Loyalty > Winning
The part that sucks is that there is a way to cobble together a functional offense. Unfortunately, Billy couldn't sell ice in Hell. No way he could get these guys to change what they're doing on the fly.
Another thing I wonder about is Zach's marketability regarding being a Klutch guy... This should hold some value, no? Such as, since Zach is a Klutch guy, then if you trade for him he may not be your alpha but you might be sold on the fact he could later attract a Klutch alpha to your team later on. So you get Zach as bait essentially and can live with the fact that he's maybe not very valuable as a max slot guy in and of himself. These agencies like Klutch, they're basically rival unions within a union, so I would think this is a perk of Zach joining with them which a future team could use to possibly exploit the Klutch ties
please read every comment on every thread. There's a lot on this in the last one:
https://www.blogabull.com/p/the-season-isnt-a-failure-until-arturas/comment/44058496
lol ok buddy
Except despite the BD enabling/ass-kissing and silver platter contract, Zach has delivered no Klutch (or clutch) benefits to speak of.
Jerry's 87 and his dad only lived to 78. That's all I got.
AK was supposedly a Michael hire (well he still had to ask Dad for permission), so not much hope there either.
Vooch is Pau Gasol 2.0. Pau was over the hill when he came to the Bulls and was the most lead-footed defender I had ever seen, but he had no trouble trashing his teammates whenever the team lost. Pau, unlike Vooch, was a genuine all-star in his prime, but that did nothing for the Bulls.
Pau was an all star the two years he was in Chicago, and if he had not injured in the series against the Cavs in the second round... Bulls were up 2-1 at some point. I'm not saying that was because of him, that team was much better than this one, but Gasol was the second best player on a great team and Vooch is just ridiculous at this point. They are not even comparable.
Also, he was making just 7M per year! So great contract for an all star.
We can agree to disagree. This is going to be a very long post, because Pau with the Bulls is a sore spot for me. We had season tickets behind the basket in Section 200 during the two years he played here, which allowed me to focus closely on Pau’s defense for a half every game, and I have never seen anyone else that immobile on an NBA court. If you were foolish enough to drive right at him he’d block your shot because of his height, but if he was just a few steps from the basket, he was toast. (Even my wife, who knows nothing about basketball, noticed.) He was entirely incapable of boxing out, and most of his rebounds were uncontested - again because of his height, he got to balls his teammates would otherwise have gotten to anyway. He also played too many minutes (in part because he had reportedly insisted on being a starter as a condition of his signing) and so often had no legs toward the end of games, which meant that he stopped hitting shots - one of the only things (aside from passing) that he was good at. So I would argue that he was an all-star with the Bulls because of his reputation and his stats, but while his reputation was earned, the stats were empty. His signing also had the knock-on effect of pushing Joakim Noah to the four, a position for which he was entirely unsuited. (Yes, Noah was no longer the player that he had been, but he still had something to offer on defense and on the boards and might have regained his rhythm offensively had he been able to play regularly as a center.) Also, because Taj was still a valuable rotation piece, Thibs had to play Mirotić at the three when it was obvious even then that the four was his natural position, and I’m convinced that this stunted Niko’s development. For all those reasons I consider the Gasol signing to have been a huge mistake, but he actually might have been a net positive had he been willing to come off the bench and play 20 - 25 minutes a game. He and Taj might have been a decent offensive-defensive combination, and similarly Niko with Noah. And finally, I don’t recall Pau’s injury to have been much of a factor in the Cleveland series. Pau put up nice numbers in game 1 (I just looked it up), but did very little in game 3, which the Bulls also won. The Bulls were a decent team then (sadly for the very last time), but the Heat were better; the Bulls would have lost with or without Gasol.
I'm sort of convinced that the problem was not that Pau wasn't good enough, but that Pau turned out to be too good. Like, if Derrick had been a reasonable version of his past self and Pau had played as poorly as he had in the Lakers, Thibs would have no problem keeping Gasol as a fake starter at 25 mins a game.
But with Rose a shadow of himself, Dunleavy aging by the minute, a combo of Snell and rookies McDermott and Mirotic, and Gasol playing like an All Star, there was no way of doing that.
Season tickets for a PO team, that sounds amazing dude.
I can buy that the fit of Pau in the Bulls was not great, and that his signing pushed some rotational moves that did not benefit the production/development of other players, but I do think that he made the team better for the price. I agree that with or without him, the Bulls were not doing anything important that season, but at least. If there was another better option for the Bulls at that price, I don't know really.
My point is that he still was a good player those years, especially the first one, not just for being an all star starter, but also an All NBA 2nd team. He posted some good games, he could score at the post and from the outside and his understanding with Butler was great. For sure, the usage of him that the Bulls did could have been better. The second year was worst, that's true, he was all star because of the Butler injury, and while the Hoiberg system didn't fit him, he still had some value.
What I'm trying to say is that, while he had great shooting, passing and IQ and poor defense and athleticism, Vucevic has the same flaws that him but is not even near at the level Pau was offering in offense, where Vucevic is really struggling this year, with poor percentages and eternal post up possessions.
If you were making some true wholesale changes, here's what the stats say:
I looked at EPM. It's a solid stat, though might not be the best with so little sample size, but it's as good as anything for a generalized comparison.
- Caruso +1.4
- LaVine +0.7
- DDR -0.4
- Vuc -0.7
- Coby -1.2
- PAW -1.8
- Drummond -1.8
- Carter -2.6
- Ayo -2.8
- Craig -3.1
The biggest issue for the Bulls is their general terribleness. They are bad offensively and defensively. However, I am basically at the point where I don't see any way their offense can work, so let's just put a good defense out there, hope for more transition and semi-transition opportunities. Plus, good defensive players are less useful off the bench. You need your good defenders playing overlapping minutes to good offense on the other side to negate their effect. Having Caruso in against the Bucks bench and guarding Cam Payne is less useful than having him guard Dame. Here's the Bulls best defensive lineup (also referencing EPM and other advanced stats)
PG - Carter
SG - Caruso
SF - PAW
PF - Craig
C - Vuc
Notice a problem? Our "stars" don't play D, and Vuc is sketchy on that end. My best idea for what to do?
Start Caruso, PAW, LaVine, DDR, Vuc. None of our point guards are good anyway. We'd be pretty 1-3 and solid enough defensively. I'd look to trade LaVine or DDR ASAP.
Props to AK for actually making a public appearance before the trade deadline. With that being said, what absolute bullshit. You're disappointed in what exactly? The fact that you've brought back the same team for three straight years despite clear evidence your mid-3 don't actually play well together? I mean, you had to have known the team would eventually get sick of this same shit and start to quit on you, right?
And you say this is your responsibility. What exactly does that mean? You give no indication of what direction you might be heading. All we know is Zach will likely get traded because he embarrassed you by publicly asking out. We also know a rebuild is highly unlikely because KC let the cat out of the bag that you're too proud to admit that cutting the previous rebuild short in a feeble attempt at building a contender spectacularly failed.
If I had to guess, my expectation is that Zach gets moved sometime this year and that's probably the extent of moves AK makes. It'll likely be to the Lakers too since they seem to be the only team seriously interested in him. Most of the other rumored teams have either expressed disinterest or are East teams and I'm sure AK doesn't want to give Zach to the direct competition.
He'll probably get fleeced on the Zach trade too. It'll probably be some combination of DLo, random salary filler and the Lakers 2029 first round pick. But he'll sell it as the Bulls finally getting a point guard and future star (that is currently only 12 years old)!