I'm not a part of the tank brigade either. I just don't believe in saving billionaires money. All tanking is guaranteed to do is lower labor costs for people who can afford anything. I'm ok with honest mediocrity.
The problem is that AKME can barely do honest mediocrity. And that's the real reason I don't wanna see a Bulls rebuild, AKME will be pulling the trigger. Bulls have to get lucky somewhere, with AKME calling the shots, Bulls need to be lucky EVERYWHERE. The Bulls need all the luck because AKME is bad at their job. You need luck and skill and the Bulls have no skill in the FO. So let's hope for luck.
Yeah there's so little skill and good decision making at the top of the org that they basically have to rely on luck... Terrible spot for fans to be in.
Yeah, Chicago sports fans deserve a management team that demands a top 6 finish in the conference every year. Anything less should be called out as a failure requiring moves. Rebuilds should be FAST and involve spending a lot of $$$. I thought Houston made some mistakes in their acceleration process, but it's been working out so far. Knicks have also done well.
Yep, and when you add that 4-6 teams are "contending" for those 20 spots, it feels even more like a hollow victory.
But it's also exactly what the NBA wants. They want to see dumb teams in the 20-25 range compete instead of tanking. Never mind that truly tanking can actually work.
I guess keeping Caruso means not trading Vuc, which means attempting to resign Debo, which means optimism on Lonzo's knee, which means wasting our 2024 FRP on Bronny, which means LBJ!!! My prediction for your "what to root for" article...remember 40 is just a number...
I'm not on board with blowing it up. I don't philosophically believe in "rebuilding". What I believe in is continuously looking for opportunities to improve.
From that perspective, we're a team with very limited options for improvement. Ayo, Coby, and whatever SG we get back from trading Zach (because it's pretty evident it's going to be a Jaden Ivey/Austin Reaves/Jalen Green type of return) is still going to mean we have three relatively young players at the guard positions that we'd like to see play significant minutes.
Given that reality, trading Caruso is blindingly obvious. He'll get the best return on the team, and there are deserving candidates to play those minutes.
This isn't rocket science, it's just common sense. Which AKME lack. So, sure, maybe they're just posturing or whatever, but their track record doesn't suggest that.
Further, AC's value is obviously peaking. He's turning 30 this year and is under contract for next season too. So if you're trading for him this year, you're getting two playoff runs at a known, very good, price. That's awesome.
If you trade for him next year, you don't get that. You get a year older version for 1 playoff run, and a significant question you have to deal with about how much to resign him for (on your contending team that's probably already paying a hefty luxury tax bill). He still has value, but it's obviously a lot less, and it comes with a lot more uncertainty.
To put it simply, his value is at its peak. There's nowhere to go but down.
"To put it simply, his value is at its peak. There's nowhere to go but down."
And this is exactly why we know AK won't trade him. He wouldn't trade DeMar when his value was at its peak. He wouldn't trade Zach last deadline or offseason when teams were calling. He's now being forced to trade Zach, which means he'll absolutely get less than he could have gotten previously.
How that's not making AK rethink his ridiculous insistence on holding onto players is beyond me. This team is so frustrating.
I think it can be both. One reason to trade him is he doesn't make sense on this team and is currently worth a whole lot to a whole lot of teams. He's a guy every contender (or wanna-be-contender) wants. Having him dive all over the court for the Bulls to finish as the 10th seed or whatever is a total waste.
I do agree though, that the whole "biggest success story of your regime" thing is completely ridiculous. If your biggest success story is a 25 minute a night guy because you absolutely fucked up all of the moves ahead of him, your success story sucks.
I think they are partially afraid to trade him because they know despite their own puffery he is ultimately just a 25 minute a (every-other) night guy, he's not going to get two first round picks in a trade
hypothetically the Warriors should be desperate enough to overpay for Caruso. But I don't trust AK to create leverage or properly scout Kumiga or Moody or other young players on their roster, to where maybe it looks day one they took a bad deal but can unearth potential long-term
I agree about AK, of course, but I think it's important to be able to identify true peaks and valuations, and I'll say I don't think DeMar or Zach's values have changed much.
Like, there just aren't the obvious kind of factors I cited for Caruso in favor of those guys. Last year or this year.
Like, if I trade for Alex Caruso today, how certain am I that I want him on my 24-25 roster? About 99%.
If I traded for DeMar last year, how certain would I be that I wanted to be paying him $28M this year? Probably not very. In fact, I might actually prefer him on an expiring deal, if my current posture is "make the playoffs and then maybe think about cutting salary for 24-25".
Zach's value has probably gone down, but I never heard anything that sounded very appealing to me. Certainly the Bulls should have jumped at the opportunity, if they had it, to trade him to Phoenix this past Summer. I would guess they could have gotten the same deal that the Wizards got for Beal. But is it a lot worse than that? I dunno.
You might be right about DeMar, but I still think they would have gotten considerably more for him in the summer of 2022 than they would potentially get for him at this deadline.
I think they would absolutely have gotten more for Zach this past summer or at last year's trade deadline. If teams are smart, they'll understand that the Bulls "have" to trade Zach this season and will offer as little as they possibly can to get him.
I think Beal has more cache around the league than Zach....mainly bc he has slightly more playoff experience and he is considered a better playmaker. So I don't think Zach would fetch the same assets that Beal did..
yes he includes LaVine, but LaVine is not going to receive positive trade value from a team already ass deep in the tax
So if thinking smaller, would Caruso for just one player (Moody/Pods/Kumiga, do some scouting) and a single lotto-protected first work? or is AK dumb if he holds
I think Warriors would be much better suited going after Siakam than LaVine. Better fitting player and expiring contract.
I would like to conceive of a way to make it 3 teams, but don't think the Raptors want LaVine as they don't have a ball-dominant player to keep Zach from his worse instincts
I think he might get a lotto pick or at least a chance at one. I dont know exactly what the Sixers and Thunder have stocked up, but Id be looking to them first. Memphis and Houston might end up being decent trade partners too. Kings, just in the sense that a kings pick in three years could be good because youd expect them to blow up by then.
he doesn't specify the quality of the firsts though. Philly can't trade '24 and don't have one in '25. They have two in '26 (theirs, and lowest (worst) of OKC/HOU/LAC) and then two in '28 (theirs and LAC)
That's where the negotiation would be really important. The opportunity is that it's quite possible that either Philly or the Clippers could be pretty bad in 26 or 28.
Just looking long-term, Embiid is 30 in a couple months and is an injury waiting to happen.
The Clippers are pretty clearly falling apart and can't stay healthy and both Kawhi and PG are extension eligible.
Obviously there's no sure things in a deal like this, but this seems like the best chance of the Bulls getting a real shot or two.
I don't know if Philly gives up the best of those options in both 26 and 28. Just rating them, you'd have to think the 28 pick is the best one. You could get the better of Philly or LA's pick with no other encumbrances.
The 26 one is only valuable if Philly is really bad, because the second pick is the worst of the other teams.
If I were AK, for Caruso, I'd ask for the better of the 28 picks and the worse of the 26 picks and then and Paul Reed and KJ Martin.
If the Sixers want LaVine, I'd want to additionally get the better of the 26 picks and some seconds. (Morris, RoCo, and Batum for salary purposes). Basically, that'd be expiring contracts and a small chance at a lotto pick but more realistically a middle-round '26 pick.
Paul Reed is at least as valuable to the current Sixers as Caruso would be. Not saying he's a better player, just that he's very important to what the Sixers hope to do.
Sixers would be more likely to put Springer in that offer rather than BBall Paul. And to be honest, from the Bulls perspective, I think Springer is also a great get. His defense is amazing.
Dec 12, 2023·edited Dec 12, 2023Liked by your friendly BullsBlogger
It obviously wasn't Pat's intention, but he kind of let the cat out of the bag on this one:
"In discussing his consistent play recently, Williams told the Sun-Times, 'What I know is you can never compare your journey to someone else’s. I mean, I came to the Bulls, and we were trying to win right off the bat, so development was never a priority.”
That statement could be taken a couple of different ways.
It helped that Williams went on to say, “We were trying to win, and that’s 100% of what I wanted to do.'"
What I find hilarious (and also sad) is Billy's response. He gets defensive and immediately points out something embarrassing about Pat - specifically that Pat would eat chicken parmesan an hour before games in his rookie year.
It just shows the culture in the Bulls organization. If someone reveals something embarrassing about you, you try to shift attention back to them by embarrassing them. Such great leadership.
and he specifically said "not to embarrass patrick" yeah that's exactly what you were doing, also fuck that guy for making fun a of a 19 year old kid. I'm sure you made all the best choices when you were that age! what a dickhead.
For real! It's like when you're in middle school and your friend says something embarrassing about you, so you say "Well, you peed your pants in class when you were five."
Except Billy isn't in middle school and he's paid millions of dollars to coach these guys. Part of coaching is having your players' backs; not stabbing them in the back when they mistakenly make you look bad.
I feel that. I just read it because the headline caught my eye. Quickly realized there was some seriously damning information in it that was just being glossed over.
I do not understand how these things are mutually exclusive. Look at Thibs who routinely integrates young players into winning squads by carving out simple effective roles. They learn to develop their best skills and they learn to win.
Yeah. I'm reading it more like that. It's Pat talking. He has it in his head that he'd develop differently if he went somewhere that was trash and he'd have a green light to throw up a bunch of garbage shots.
I don't know that he'd actually be a better player, he'd just have better numbers.
The Bulls player development program is probably shit. But they gifted Pat a starting role and he showed out like Tony Sell. Dude shouldn't be talking about getting more opportunities.
Responding to both you and yfbb here, but I'd assume Pat wasn't just randomly talking about this. My assumption is he was asked if he feels he hasn't developed like other people around him.
Not defending him because I do think he hasn't progressed as much as he should have and it's not necessarily an organization's responsibility to hold a player's hand through their entire development process.
But in this specific scenario, I have much less patience for Billy's response than Pat's. Billy is the adult and his response was childish. Pat was likely asked a question that he responded to honestly, even if it wasn't the most PR-friendly response ever.
And isn't BD and the team's job to like, coach him not to do that? We have a $9 million a year athlete we're pinning our success on, but we refuse to give him basic nutrition advice. Great.
Well, they probably wanted Pat to do that a couple times before telling him not to so they could bring it back up years later if Pat ever said anything to embarrass them.
DeMar understands the assignment. Both the second half against Denver and the fourth quarter against Milwaukee he decided it was 1v5 every possession - bad mid-range shots and a refusal to pass to the open man.
So Draymond is essentially just a criminal now? They need to hammer him. How can you play against someone who will punch you in the head if you put your hand on their hip? Your opponents fearing for their safety is a massive competitive advantage and it needs to be mitigated by a literal full-season suspension.
Laimbeer's violence was generally pretty calculated. So you could put a pretty firm ceiling on the retaliation to your retaliation. Draymond may burn down your house at this point and then give a long, incoherent and self-pitying non-apology about it on his podcast.
Usually when you say this I’m like “good ol’ yfbb with the funny hyperbole” but then he actually does this in a game (I think vs the Spurs). Your head is important, Alex! Even if it is lacking hair!
his injury concerns are not just from playing hard, but playing recklessly. That's how he succeeds (a lot of his value is from drawing offensive fouls on screens, which is technically basketball (?)) but I wonder if other teams are wise to this downside and lowering the trade value
I guess we'll never know since the Bulls don't even want to hear offers, heh
And since he is part of this story, I must mention Nurkic's discovery as my all time favorite example of pro-active scouting. A youth scout read a news report about Nurkic's policeman father beating up seven criminals at once and thought to himself "I wonder if that man has children and if they can be taught basketball?". And with that, an NBA player was found.
I don't understand the cult of Draymond Green. I'm not going to go so far as to say he's a criminal but he's a straight up punk. I hope he stays suspended indefinitely and the under-.500 Warriors get some karmic payback for his years of malfeasance. As a Bulls fan, I'm forced to reckon with the legacy of Rodman but dude was a mercenary plain and simple. He didn't embody the Bulls or represent us except on the court. Green is a fake and probably deserves the rest of the season off. I couldn't believe this morning when I was hearing that his suspension might end up being 10-15 games.
Yeah and I mean I think part of the indefinite suspension is because the warriors keep defending him. I thought he should have gotten way more for that choke on Gobert too.
As far as Rodman goes... I think he actually had fewer violent on court incidents honestly. Granted, I think some of the personal stuff regarding domestic violence charges would be taken more seriously by the NBA than it was at the time, and yeah he could be verbally abusive, but I feel like these last two incidents by Green were worse than what Rodman ever did on the court, except the cameraman kick.
I have a hard time understanding how the Warriors value Moody and Kuminga. I just find it hard to believe they would trade them and say, Chris Paul, just to take a flyer on Lavine. I think Caruso would have to be in that trade.
In a lot of ways Lavine is the most un-Warriors player imaginable. But if you're looking for a guy to just shoot 3s and attack close outs, you're hardly find a player more suited. The Warriors would just have to shrink his decisions. I think something like Zach/Caruso for Moody/Kuminga/Payton/Paul and a pick would make sense for both teams.
Paul / Coby / Ayo
Coby / Moody / Payton (IR)
Derozan / Craig
P Will / Kuminga
Vuc / Drummond
That team is younger and probably in a better position to compete now. But you're not getting any blue chip prospects so I guess the Bulls would say no.
As the Bulls, I'd jump on that. Much better than whatever the Lakers are likely to offer. With the inclusion of Caruso though, it could be argued that it's not enough, but Zach really has almost negative value with that contract.
Agreed. Sure, ideally you get more in terms of picks. Or maybe you'd want Podz (who just moved into the starting lineup for GSW). But I think Moody and Kuminga both have upside and might flourish with a change of scenery.
Given where the FO is at, I'd be shocked if they traded Caruso. AK seems delusional enough to think this team is a move away from 2nd round contention and is no doubt selling that in the front office. In light of that, its really hard to predict a Zach Lavine trade. What win-now pieces make sense on the Bulls?
Philly and LA are the two teams that appear most interested in Zach. Given the make-up of the roster, and the Bulls Philly connections, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Zach for Tobias Harris and picks trade. If the Bulls are willing to throw in Caruso they could really start to get into Philly's assets. They would just have to give up the fantasy of winning now for the reality of winning in the future. Something like
Bulls trade: Caruso/Lavine
Philly trades: Harris/Korkmaz/Springer the 2024, 2026 and 2028 1st with minimal protections. Getting 3 1st round picks out of Caruso/Lavine may the best Chicago can do. Plus they would have a ton of cap space heading into the summer
Vuc / Drummond
Harris / Craig / Phillips
P WIll / Kormaz / Terry
Derozan / Ayo / Springer
Coby / Carter
The Bulls could then let Harris and Derozan go in the summer and use their cap space to acquire even more young players and picks.
I find it confounding if Philly is even a Zach suitor. I wonder how much of it is driven externally, even Shams couches is like "is thought to be interested"
Zach doesn't help the Sixers enough to ruin their opportunity to star-chase with much lower cap number next year (since Harris is expiring). Getting Caruso too would help that, but ultimately I think Morey is just holding for stars, and for this season if none pop up available would do some marginal addition
The other thing is, Philly has been competing for years without good team chemistry. Maybe they had a good season of Embiid and Simmons when Simmons was still good, I don't remember. But the point is, are they willing to risk that so they can get Zach to tussle with Maxey over who gets to be the second option?
It's a tradeoff. I think the clock is ticking on the Sixers because Embiid is a giant guy who's about to be 30 and has plenty of lower leg injury history. They can't really afford to not take a swing. And who are they going to go out and get otherwise? Cap space seems relatively less valuable these days. Teams have figured out that you need to trade for impending free agents with the agreement that they'll extend.
Within that context, I think LaVine is an option, but he's probably a lower priority option to OG, who's a much better fit and maybe won't be as expensive.
That's probably a rule of thumb for thinking about LaVine trades. Would a team rather have Zach or OG? If you're putting together a trade idea for Zach, why wouldn't that team just offer it for OG? And if it'll get OG, they're probably just going to get him and not bother with Zach. The guys who don't get OG or Siakam will be the ones potentially interested in Zach.
1. There's no compelling story without a horserace, there needs to be another entry here
2. If the word is out that you can get Zach LaVine for a trash first rounder and salary cap crap, why wouldn't you?
I think fans and journalists kind of forget sometimes that "value" isn't a zero-sum game, everyone has a certain price tag attached and if you can get Zach LaVine for that and trade him for more in a year, that's a pretty good deal. Morey has acquired a lot of inefficient and overpaid players over the years and usually managed to get more for them down the line.
It's arguable that this is antithetical to building a championship team, though, but that's another question.
yeah I could see that, Morey running arbitrage and selling higher on LaVine in the offseason. Though I genuinely think if he knows basketball it's not likely LaVine meaningfully improves his team on the court
Jake Fischer today:
"the Sixers are not expected to pursue any significant roster changes until much closer to February’s trade deadline, league sources told Yahoo Sports, no matter how often Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Lakers get linked to Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine."
I'd say it's in Klutch's interest to make it seem like there's a market for Zach, but not at the expense of their ultimate goal of getting him to the Lakers for as cheap as possible
I wouldn't be mad at this. Instead of Harris, I'd rather see the pu pu platter of Morris and RoCo for salary with Springer and Reed + picks for Zach and Drummy. Bulls hang on to Caruso hopefully to trade separately, but like you I'm bracing for them to... not.
That said, I've basically resigned myself that Zach to the Lakers is a fait accompli. If it's something like Zach, Craig and/or Jevon for Reaves, Rui, and DLo/Vincent and their 2029 1st, I'd be fine. This should be the baseline, worst-case scenario. Definitely concerned they get pantsed and somehow don't get Reaves out of the deal.
I would love to see a something with GSW to land some of their young guys and picks, and my wildcard idea is Zach to the Nets for Simmons, a young player, and a couple 1sts.
I just don't think the Lakers pieces make much sense for the Bulls. yes, that is obviously what Zack and his camp want. But in my mind the Lakers don't make sense bc
1. I don't like Rui. I think he's a worse version of Demar who's always going to be a backup on a good team.
2. I'm not a big Reaves guy either. I think he's a piece, but not a sure fire starter on a good team (see current Lakers). He's not a great shooter or slasher and he's already 2 years older than Coby. I just don't see the upside.
3. I think DLo is a horrible fit next to Coby. So why trade for him? Not that Coby is some piece you automatically build around but it makes no sense to disrupt anything for DL0.
And other than those guys, who are the pieces the Bulls are trading for? I still don't think a pick in 29 is valuable to AK. The way things are going they may not make it to 29.
Oh yeah - don't get me wrong. I'm not a huge fan of Rui, Reaves, or DLo either, and the Lakers are way down on my list of would-be trade partners. I'm basically just resigned to it at this point. And if it plays out some other way I'll be pleasantly surprised.
Reeves was top ten in free throw rate last year. Rui is trash - didn’t the Wiz give up on him? DLo is a decent asst and shooter, but no D. Don’t we need to get an expiring in order to pay PW and our FRP without exceeding the cap?
But you can't think of what makes sense. You have to think of what AK sees. To him, the Bulls need a PG and more three points shooting. DLo is a PG and shoots threes. Plus he's somewhat well known, so more butts in seats.
The Bulls also need more size. Rui has size and he's decently athletic. We all know AK loves his long, athletic players who can't shoot very well. Rui fits that perfectly.
When thinking of it like that, this Lakers trade is probably perfect in AK's eyes. Is it a terrible trade? Absolutely, but that's why it's likely to happen.
I think the most ridiculous thing - well, maybe not, but one of them - is that they see this as as "success story," but they won't move on from him. I would define a success story as either a) getting someone at far below value and turning them into high value and/or b) developing someone from sort of nothing into something successful. Both rely heavily on the individual, of course, but there is also something that team acquiring said player needs to do: develop individuals, put them in places for success, etc.
If the Bulls view that as a success story, then they should be confident that they can repeat it. Certainly not with every player, and maybe rarely to the same extent that they might believe they had with Caruso, but to at least some extent.
Yet the fact that they want to hold onto him indicates to me that they aren't really confident they had much to do with his development, and maybe their only "success" part of the story is that they signed him at all. And if they traded him for young players/draft picks, then what would they have to show for that, anyway?
Well, nothing, I guess, because they might not even be the ones making the draft picks. But even so, if they trade LaVine and DeRozan walks, what do they really have to show for any of this anyway? Vucevic - for whom they overpaid for in draft and prospect capital and in free agent money - and Caruso, a very good and underrated player, but... a true needle-mover? Yay!
I'm not a part of the tank brigade either. I just don't believe in saving billionaires money. All tanking is guaranteed to do is lower labor costs for people who can afford anything. I'm ok with honest mediocrity.
The problem is that AKME can barely do honest mediocrity. And that's the real reason I don't wanna see a Bulls rebuild, AKME will be pulling the trigger. Bulls have to get lucky somewhere, with AKME calling the shots, Bulls need to be lucky EVERYWHERE. The Bulls need all the luck because AKME is bad at their job. You need luck and skill and the Bulls have no skill in the FO. So let's hope for luck.
Yeah there's so little skill and good decision making at the top of the org that they basically have to rely on luck... Terrible spot for fans to be in.
Contending for the playoffs is feeling more and more like a hollow sentiment when 20 out of 30 teams get a shot at it.
Yeah, Chicago sports fans deserve a management team that demands a top 6 finish in the conference every year. Anything less should be called out as a failure requiring moves. Rebuilds should be FAST and involve spending a lot of $$$. I thought Houston made some mistakes in their acceleration process, but it's been working out so far. Knicks have also done well.
Yep, and when you add that 4-6 teams are "contending" for those 20 spots, it feels even more like a hollow victory.
But it's also exactly what the NBA wants. They want to see dumb teams in the 20-25 range compete instead of tanking. Never mind that truly tanking can actually work.
I guess keeping Caruso means not trading Vuc, which means attempting to resign Debo, which means optimism on Lonzo's knee, which means wasting our 2024 FRP on Bronny, which means LBJ!!! My prediction for your "what to root for" article...remember 40 is just a number...
I'm not on board with blowing it up. I don't philosophically believe in "rebuilding". What I believe in is continuously looking for opportunities to improve.
From that perspective, we're a team with very limited options for improvement. Ayo, Coby, and whatever SG we get back from trading Zach (because it's pretty evident it's going to be a Jaden Ivey/Austin Reaves/Jalen Green type of return) is still going to mean we have three relatively young players at the guard positions that we'd like to see play significant minutes.
Given that reality, trading Caruso is blindingly obvious. He'll get the best return on the team, and there are deserving candidates to play those minutes.
This isn't rocket science, it's just common sense. Which AKME lack. So, sure, maybe they're just posturing or whatever, but their track record doesn't suggest that.
Further, AC's value is obviously peaking. He's turning 30 this year and is under contract for next season too. So if you're trading for him this year, you're getting two playoff runs at a known, very good, price. That's awesome.
If you trade for him next year, you don't get that. You get a year older version for 1 playoff run, and a significant question you have to deal with about how much to resign him for (on your contending team that's probably already paying a hefty luxury tax bill). He still has value, but it's obviously a lot less, and it comes with a lot more uncertainty.
To put it simply, his value is at its peak. There's nowhere to go but down.
"To put it simply, his value is at its peak. There's nowhere to go but down."
And this is exactly why we know AK won't trade him. He wouldn't trade DeMar when his value was at its peak. He wouldn't trade Zach last deadline or offseason when teams were calling. He's now being forced to trade Zach, which means he'll absolutely get less than he could have gotten previously.
How that's not making AK rethink his ridiculous insistence on holding onto players is beyond me. This team is so frustrating.
his value is at its peak and that's not reason to trade him. that's reason to have it be "the biggest success story of your regime"
I think it can be both. One reason to trade him is he doesn't make sense on this team and is currently worth a whole lot to a whole lot of teams. He's a guy every contender (or wanna-be-contender) wants. Having him dive all over the court for the Bulls to finish as the 10th seed or whatever is a total waste.
I do agree though, that the whole "biggest success story of your regime" thing is completely ridiculous. If your biggest success story is a 25 minute a night guy because you absolutely fucked up all of the moves ahead of him, your success story sucks.
I think they are partially afraid to trade him because they know despite their own puffery he is ultimately just a 25 minute a (every-other) night guy, he's not going to get two first round picks in a trade
hypothetically the Warriors should be desperate enough to overpay for Caruso. But I don't trust AK to create leverage or properly scout Kumiga or Moody or other young players on their roster, to where maybe it looks day one they took a bad deal but can unearth potential long-term
I agree about AK, of course, but I think it's important to be able to identify true peaks and valuations, and I'll say I don't think DeMar or Zach's values have changed much.
Like, there just aren't the obvious kind of factors I cited for Caruso in favor of those guys. Last year or this year.
Like, if I trade for Alex Caruso today, how certain am I that I want him on my 24-25 roster? About 99%.
If I traded for DeMar last year, how certain would I be that I wanted to be paying him $28M this year? Probably not very. In fact, I might actually prefer him on an expiring deal, if my current posture is "make the playoffs and then maybe think about cutting salary for 24-25".
Zach's value has probably gone down, but I never heard anything that sounded very appealing to me. Certainly the Bulls should have jumped at the opportunity, if they had it, to trade him to Phoenix this past Summer. I would guess they could have gotten the same deal that the Wizards got for Beal. But is it a lot worse than that? I dunno.
You might be right about DeMar, but I still think they would have gotten considerably more for him in the summer of 2022 than they would potentially get for him at this deadline.
I think they would absolutely have gotten more for Zach this past summer or at last year's trade deadline. If teams are smart, they'll understand that the Bulls "have" to trade Zach this season and will offer as little as they possibly can to get him.
We could have got the Beal Deal.
I think Beal has more cache around the league than Zach....mainly bc he has slightly more playoff experience and he is considered a better playmaker. So I don't think Zach would fetch the same assets that Beal did..
Someone post on Twitter that "KD wanted Beal, he hates Zach LaVine" and wait to see what his burner account says.
In all seriousness, I think I remember at one point that KD openly said he'd like to play with Zach or some such.
I wonder how much the 'trade Caruso at peak value' holds up if that value isn't what we think it is.
Like Ricky posted this trade idea that is totally ripping off the Warriors. 2 firsts, Moody, Pods, no long-term money beyond Gary Payton https://twitter.com/SBN_Ricky/status/1735024002446373005
yes he includes LaVine, but LaVine is not going to receive positive trade value from a team already ass deep in the tax
So if thinking smaller, would Caruso for just one player (Moody/Pods/Kumiga, do some scouting) and a single lotto-protected first work? or is AK dumb if he holds
I think Warriors would be much better suited going after Siakam than LaVine. Better fitting player and expiring contract.
I would like to conceive of a way to make it 3 teams, but don't think the Raptors want LaVine as they don't have a ball-dominant player to keep Zach from his worse instincts
I think he might get a lotto pick or at least a chance at one. I dont know exactly what the Sixers and Thunder have stocked up, but Id be looking to them first. Memphis and Houston might end up being decent trade partners too. Kings, just in the sense that a kings pick in three years could be good because youd expect them to blow up by then.
Michael Pina at the Ringer today suggested 2 firsts from Philly
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2023/12/14/24000616/nba-trade-season-indiana-pacers-golden-state-warriors-og-anunoby-lauri-markkanen
he doesn't specify the quality of the firsts though. Philly can't trade '24 and don't have one in '25. They have two in '26 (theirs, and lowest (worst) of OKC/HOU/LAC) and then two in '28 (theirs and LAC)
That's where the negotiation would be really important. The opportunity is that it's quite possible that either Philly or the Clippers could be pretty bad in 26 or 28.
Just looking long-term, Embiid is 30 in a couple months and is an injury waiting to happen.
The Clippers are pretty clearly falling apart and can't stay healthy and both Kawhi and PG are extension eligible.
Obviously there's no sure things in a deal like this, but this seems like the best chance of the Bulls getting a real shot or two.
I don't know if Philly gives up the best of those options in both 26 and 28. Just rating them, you'd have to think the 28 pick is the best one. You could get the better of Philly or LA's pick with no other encumbrances.
The 26 one is only valuable if Philly is really bad, because the second pick is the worst of the other teams.
If I were AK, for Caruso, I'd ask for the better of the 28 picks and the worse of the 26 picks and then and Paul Reed and KJ Martin.
If the Sixers want LaVine, I'd want to additionally get the better of the 26 picks and some seconds. (Morris, RoCo, and Batum for salary purposes). Basically, that'd be expiring contracts and a small chance at a lotto pick but more realistically a middle-round '26 pick.
Paul Reed is at least as valuable to the current Sixers as Caruso would be. Not saying he's a better player, just that he's very important to what the Sixers hope to do.
How about if the Bulls send Drummond back too? I confess i dont know much about the Sixers backup guys but Springer doesnt do much for me
Sixers would be more likely to put Springer in that offer rather than BBall Paul. And to be honest, from the Bulls perspective, I think Springer is also a great get. His defense is amazing.
It obviously wasn't Pat's intention, but he kind of let the cat out of the bag on this one:
"In discussing his consistent play recently, Williams told the Sun-Times, 'What I know is you can never compare your journey to someone else’s. I mean, I came to the Bulls, and we were trying to win right off the bat, so development was never a priority.”
That statement could be taken a couple of different ways.
It helped that Williams went on to say, “We were trying to win, and that’s 100% of what I wanted to do.'"
What I find hilarious (and also sad) is Billy's response. He gets defensive and immediately points out something embarrassing about Pat - specifically that Pat would eat chicken parmesan an hour before games in his rookie year.
It just shows the culture in the Bulls organization. If someone reveals something embarrassing about you, you try to shift attention back to them by embarrassing them. Such great leadership.
yea that was a loser response from BD
and he specifically said "not to embarrass patrick" yeah that's exactly what you were doing, also fuck that guy for making fun a of a 19 year old kid. I'm sure you made all the best choices when you were that age! what a dickhead.
For real! It's like when you're in middle school and your friend says something embarrassing about you, so you say "Well, you peed your pants in class when you were five."
Except Billy isn't in middle school and he's paid millions of dollars to coach these guys. Part of coaching is having your players' backs; not stabbing them in the back when they mistakenly make you look bad.
grown ass man making fun of a teenager, really professional 🙄
Probably had a good laugh about it with AK after, too.
or Jerry, Jerry's the best at pettiness and taking advantage of people
also, I find it bizarre that he was like "oh maybe it was a good thing", well not really if only now he is starting to be consistent lol
Just trying to cover his ass.
20 years ago Artest had a bottle of Hennessy in his locker.
good find, I would've missed it as it was a Cowley article
I feel that. I just read it because the headline caught my eye. Quickly realized there was some seriously damning information in it that was just being glossed over.
It was not glossed over. It was tossed over. With breadcrumbs. And then covered in delicious mozzarella cheese.
"Sorry, we can't develop our top-5 pick, we're trying to win 45 games" is the most loser shit I've ever heard lol. Jesus fucking christ.
I do not understand how these things are mutually exclusive. Look at Thibs who routinely integrates young players into winning squads by carving out simple effective roles. They learn to develop their best skills and they learn to win.
I don't think Billy is nearly as good of a coach, but isn't that what he did with Pat? And he's solid in that role.
"I'm a top 5 pick who didn't produce in college but maybe I'd produce in the NBA only if you get me more shots" is also loser shit from Williams IMO
I think he's developing fine, and just wasn't a good pick
To be clear I think they're all losers, but push back on any 'Pat can't fail, he can only be fail' idea (not that Moon is saying this)
*be failed... Hey I can't edit in the app 😭
Yeah. I'm reading it more like that. It's Pat talking. He has it in his head that he'd develop differently if he went somewhere that was trash and he'd have a green light to throw up a bunch of garbage shots.
I don't know that he'd actually be a better player, he'd just have better numbers.
He's had plenty of opportunity here though.
The Bulls player development program is probably shit. But they gifted Pat a starting role and he showed out like Tony Sell. Dude shouldn't be talking about getting more opportunities.
Responding to both you and yfbb here, but I'd assume Pat wasn't just randomly talking about this. My assumption is he was asked if he feels he hasn't developed like other people around him.
Not defending him because I do think he hasn't progressed as much as he should have and it's not necessarily an organization's responsibility to hold a player's hand through their entire development process.
But in this specific scenario, I have much less patience for Billy's response than Pat's. Billy is the adult and his response was childish. Pat was likely asked a question that he responded to honestly, even if it wasn't the most PR-friendly response ever.
Agree, criticisms of both guys can be true/valid, but Billy's response is far more pathetic.
My thinking exactly.
At the Bulls, development starts after you sign your (very team friendly) first post-rookie contract.
And isn't BD and the team's job to like, coach him not to do that? We have a $9 million a year athlete we're pinning our success on, but we refuse to give him basic nutrition advice. Great.
Well, they probably wanted Pat to do that a couple times before telling him not to so they could bring it back up years later if Pat ever said anything to embarrass them.
DeMar understands the assignment. Both the second half against Denver and the fourth quarter against Milwaukee he decided it was 1v5 every possession - bad mid-range shots and a refusal to pass to the open man.
We salute you, DeMar. Now trade him, AK!
So Draymond is essentially just a criminal now? They need to hammer him. How can you play against someone who will punch you in the head if you put your hand on their hip? Your opponents fearing for their safety is a massive competitive advantage and it needs to be mitigated by a literal full-season suspension.
Surely, someone's gonna retaliate right? I feel like Bill Laimbeer rules should apply.
Laimbeer's violence was generally pretty calculated. So you could put a pretty firm ceiling on the retaliation to your retaliation. Draymond may burn down your house at this point and then give a long, incoherent and self-pitying non-apology about it on his podcast.
Warriors desperately need Caruso, inverse of Draymond in that he leads with the face
Usually when you say this I’m like “good ol’ yfbb with the funny hyperbole” but then he actually does this in a game (I think vs the Spurs). Your head is important, Alex! Even if it is lacking hair!
his injury concerns are not just from playing hard, but playing recklessly. That's how he succeeds (a lot of his value is from drawing offensive fouls on screens, which is technically basketball (?)) but I wonder if other teams are wise to this downside and lowering the trade value
I guess we'll never know since the Bulls don't even want to hear offers, heh
Last ten games:
3 games out with injury
4 games left early with injury
3 games completed
And since he is part of this story, I must mention Nurkic's discovery as my all time favorite example of pro-active scouting. A youth scout read a news report about Nurkic's policeman father beating up seven criminals at once and thought to himself "I wonder if that man has children and if they can be taught basketball?". And with that, an NBA player was found.
Warriors will save $1M in payroll expense for every two games Draymond is suspended
so maybe they will take LaVine? (nah)
I don't understand the cult of Draymond Green. I'm not going to go so far as to say he's a criminal but he's a straight up punk. I hope he stays suspended indefinitely and the under-.500 Warriors get some karmic payback for his years of malfeasance. As a Bulls fan, I'm forced to reckon with the legacy of Rodman but dude was a mercenary plain and simple. He didn't embody the Bulls or represent us except on the court. Green is a fake and probably deserves the rest of the season off. I couldn't believe this morning when I was hearing that his suspension might end up being 10-15 games.
Yeah and I mean I think part of the indefinite suspension is because the warriors keep defending him. I thought he should have gotten way more for that choke on Gobert too.
As far as Rodman goes... I think he actually had fewer violent on court incidents honestly. Granted, I think some of the personal stuff regarding domestic violence charges would be taken more seriously by the NBA than it was at the time, and yeah he could be verbally abusive, but I feel like these last two incidents by Green were worse than what Rodman ever did on the court, except the cameraman kick.
another Bulls tie-in:
Rich Paul can't negotiate this LaVine trade while he's in the principal's office for his other client Draymond
I have a hard time understanding how the Warriors value Moody and Kuminga. I just find it hard to believe they would trade them and say, Chris Paul, just to take a flyer on Lavine. I think Caruso would have to be in that trade.
In a lot of ways Lavine is the most un-Warriors player imaginable. But if you're looking for a guy to just shoot 3s and attack close outs, you're hardly find a player more suited. The Warriors would just have to shrink his decisions. I think something like Zach/Caruso for Moody/Kuminga/Payton/Paul and a pick would make sense for both teams.
Paul / Coby / Ayo
Coby / Moody / Payton (IR)
Derozan / Craig
P Will / Kuminga
Vuc / Drummond
That team is younger and probably in a better position to compete now. But you're not getting any blue chip prospects so I guess the Bulls would say no.
As the Bulls, I'd jump on that. Much better than whatever the Lakers are likely to offer. With the inclusion of Caruso though, it could be argued that it's not enough, but Zach really has almost negative value with that contract.
Agreed. Sure, ideally you get more in terms of picks. Or maybe you'd want Podz (who just moved into the starting lineup for GSW). But I think Moody and Kuminga both have upside and might flourish with a change of scenery.
Given where the FO is at, I'd be shocked if they traded Caruso. AK seems delusional enough to think this team is a move away from 2nd round contention and is no doubt selling that in the front office. In light of that, its really hard to predict a Zach Lavine trade. What win-now pieces make sense on the Bulls?
Philly and LA are the two teams that appear most interested in Zach. Given the make-up of the roster, and the Bulls Philly connections, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Zach for Tobias Harris and picks trade. If the Bulls are willing to throw in Caruso they could really start to get into Philly's assets. They would just have to give up the fantasy of winning now for the reality of winning in the future. Something like
Bulls trade: Caruso/Lavine
Philly trades: Harris/Korkmaz/Springer the 2024, 2026 and 2028 1st with minimal protections. Getting 3 1st round picks out of Caruso/Lavine may the best Chicago can do. Plus they would have a ton of cap space heading into the summer
Vuc / Drummond
Harris / Craig / Phillips
P WIll / Kormaz / Terry
Derozan / Ayo / Springer
Coby / Carter
The Bulls could then let Harris and Derozan go in the summer and use their cap space to acquire even more young players and picks.
I find it confounding if Philly is even a Zach suitor. I wonder how much of it is driven externally, even Shams couches is like "is thought to be interested"
Zach doesn't help the Sixers enough to ruin their opportunity to star-chase with much lower cap number next year (since Harris is expiring). Getting Caruso too would help that, but ultimately I think Morey is just holding for stars, and for this season if none pop up available would do some marginal addition
The other thing is, Philly has been competing for years without good team chemistry. Maybe they had a good season of Embiid and Simmons when Simmons was still good, I don't remember. But the point is, are they willing to risk that so they can get Zach to tussle with Maxey over who gets to be the second option?
It's a tradeoff. I think the clock is ticking on the Sixers because Embiid is a giant guy who's about to be 30 and has plenty of lower leg injury history. They can't really afford to not take a swing. And who are they going to go out and get otherwise? Cap space seems relatively less valuable these days. Teams have figured out that you need to trade for impending free agents with the agreement that they'll extend.
Within that context, I think LaVine is an option, but he's probably a lower priority option to OG, who's a much better fit and maybe won't be as expensive.
That's probably a rule of thumb for thinking about LaVine trades. Would a team rather have Zach or OG? If you're putting together a trade idea for Zach, why wouldn't that team just offer it for OG? And if it'll get OG, they're probably just going to get him and not bother with Zach. The guys who don't get OG or Siakam will be the ones potentially interested in Zach.
I'm siding on one of two things (maybe both):
1. There's no compelling story without a horserace, there needs to be another entry here
2. If the word is out that you can get Zach LaVine for a trash first rounder and salary cap crap, why wouldn't you?
I think fans and journalists kind of forget sometimes that "value" isn't a zero-sum game, everyone has a certain price tag attached and if you can get Zach LaVine for that and trade him for more in a year, that's a pretty good deal. Morey has acquired a lot of inefficient and overpaid players over the years and usually managed to get more for them down the line.
It's arguable that this is antithetical to building a championship team, though, but that's another question.
yeah I could see that, Morey running arbitrage and selling higher on LaVine in the offseason. Though I genuinely think if he knows basketball it's not likely LaVine meaningfully improves his team on the court
Jake Fischer today:
"the Sixers are not expected to pursue any significant roster changes until much closer to February’s trade deadline, league sources told Yahoo Sports, no matter how often Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Lakers get linked to Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine."
I'd say it's in Klutch's interest to make it seem like there's a market for Zach, but not at the expense of their ultimate goal of getting him to the Lakers for as cheap as possible
I wouldn't be mad at this. Instead of Harris, I'd rather see the pu pu platter of Morris and RoCo for salary with Springer and Reed + picks for Zach and Drummy. Bulls hang on to Caruso hopefully to trade separately, but like you I'm bracing for them to... not.
That said, I've basically resigned myself that Zach to the Lakers is a fait accompli. If it's something like Zach, Craig and/or Jevon for Reaves, Rui, and DLo/Vincent and their 2029 1st, I'd be fine. This should be the baseline, worst-case scenario. Definitely concerned they get pantsed and somehow don't get Reaves out of the deal.
I would love to see a something with GSW to land some of their young guys and picks, and my wildcard idea is Zach to the Nets for Simmons, a young player, and a couple 1sts.
I just don't think the Lakers pieces make much sense for the Bulls. yes, that is obviously what Zack and his camp want. But in my mind the Lakers don't make sense bc
1. I don't like Rui. I think he's a worse version of Demar who's always going to be a backup on a good team.
2. I'm not a big Reaves guy either. I think he's a piece, but not a sure fire starter on a good team (see current Lakers). He's not a great shooter or slasher and he's already 2 years older than Coby. I just don't see the upside.
3. I think DLo is a horrible fit next to Coby. So why trade for him? Not that Coby is some piece you automatically build around but it makes no sense to disrupt anything for DL0.
And other than those guys, who are the pieces the Bulls are trading for? I still don't think a pick in 29 is valuable to AK. The way things are going they may not make it to 29.
Oh yeah - don't get me wrong. I'm not a huge fan of Rui, Reaves, or DLo either, and the Lakers are way down on my list of would-be trade partners. I'm basically just resigned to it at this point. And if it plays out some other way I'll be pleasantly surprised.
Reeves was top ten in free throw rate last year. Rui is trash - didn’t the Wiz give up on him? DLo is a decent asst and shooter, but no D. Don’t we need to get an expiring in order to pay PW and our FRP without exceeding the cap?
But you can't think of what makes sense. You have to think of what AK sees. To him, the Bulls need a PG and more three points shooting. DLo is a PG and shoots threes. Plus he's somewhat well known, so more butts in seats.
The Bulls also need more size. Rui has size and he's decently athletic. We all know AK loves his long, athletic players who can't shoot very well. Rui fits that perfectly.
When thinking of it like that, this Lakers trade is probably perfect in AK's eyes. Is it a terrible trade? Absolutely, but that's why it's likely to happen.
I think the most ridiculous thing - well, maybe not, but one of them - is that they see this as as "success story," but they won't move on from him. I would define a success story as either a) getting someone at far below value and turning them into high value and/or b) developing someone from sort of nothing into something successful. Both rely heavily on the individual, of course, but there is also something that team acquiring said player needs to do: develop individuals, put them in places for success, etc.
If the Bulls view that as a success story, then they should be confident that they can repeat it. Certainly not with every player, and maybe rarely to the same extent that they might believe they had with Caruso, but to at least some extent.
Yet the fact that they want to hold onto him indicates to me that they aren't really confident they had much to do with his development, and maybe their only "success" part of the story is that they signed him at all. And if they traded him for young players/draft picks, then what would they have to show for that, anyway?
Well, nothing, I guess, because they might not even be the ones making the draft picks. But even so, if they trade LaVine and DeRozan walks, what do they really have to show for any of this anyway? Vucevic - for whom they overpaid for in draft and prospect capital and in free agent money - and Caruso, a very good and underrated player, but... a true needle-mover? Yay!
yes, great point in their lack of confidence
they know they're stupid but don't know that the rest of us aren't
like AK's smug "I think Vuc deal worked out for us pretty pretty well" from the summer
now we all know that the Bulls need to trade Zach LaVine.
what this KC Johnson column presupposes is, maybe they don't?
https://www.nbcsportschicago.com/nba/chicago-bulls/bulls-rumors/bulls-zach-lavine-demar-derozan-alex-caruso-in-spotlight-as-nba-trade-season-begins/525780/
The East stays East-ing:
Saw this Heat team
Now Cavs without Mobley and Garland for a month+