the Bulls are not trade deadline sellers, they're suckers

the trades will inform the situation, not the other way around

NBA seasons are long, and with the Bulls - who never seem to move in any direction for years at a time let alone within a year - they are even longer. So even in the midst of this stretch of losing games to bad teams teams about as good as them (perhaps excluding the GLeague Hawks), they win some games too (beat the Clippers on Monday night) and are firmly in tenth place in the NBA second division.

Ultimately, it’s a team that’s ‘in the hunt’ both in every individual game and in the postseason tournament(s). So like I said weeks ago, the front office has reached their goals and are probably confused why anyone would be upset.

Arturas Karnisovas is satisfied

So I really have poured over this KC Johnson (of the Bulls-owned broadcaster) ‘report’¹ a lot, even though it physically hurts to make sense of it:

“Bulls always positioned themselves as sellers leading to Feb. 6 trade deadline, but this four-game skid adds even more urgency to that approach. Bulls are active but have yet to find a deal.”

::rubs temples:: Why would it add urgency? They’re in the same place, both literally in the standings as well as in the generalized NBA discourse. The tank not only is dead but was never alive.

I am not taking this reporting as 100% accurate insight: there is next to zero of that when it comes to covering this team, both because of the local media dynamic and the galling secrecy² of the front office.

But, that doesn’t preclude the message’s accuracy entirely: stating such a confusing “position” is probably true, because the Bulls are run by morons.

Sure, Arturas Karnisovas said at the end of last season that the play-in wasn’t the goal. They’ve long been delusional, so maybe they really thought a few random wins meant they were a tier above that until this latest losing streak. Or maybe they are lying and the play-in really does still matter, and I won’t believe otherwise until I see them make moves that would jeopardize it. We saw the past two trade deadlines that their inaction spoke louder: it wasn’t even making the play-in but merely being in contention for it.

But there are other reasons besides “not feeling you’re a playoff team anymore” or “recognizing the play-in isn’t worth fighting for two years too late” to make trades:

1. Gain assets, whether that’s draft capital or future cap flexibility

2. Make your own team have a worse record this season

3. Free up minutes to ‘gift’ towards developing young players

The ship has sailed on #2 and #3, at least to a meaningful degree. If this was a goal, steps should’ve been made in the offseason for greater impact, a couple more weeks won’t make a difference.

And for #1, as annoying as it is to keep waiting after it’s been so long of a wait already, it really does likely mean the best course of action is holding closer to the deadline.

That appears to be where the Bulls are at now. With both Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, the consensus rumoring³ is that the Bulls are active but not desperate, holding out for a better return (no ‘bad’ salary, a first-round pick). And whether it’s players who will get you less (Torrey Craig) or more (Ayo Dosunmu), there’s not even any activity.

There’s several ways to influence trade return:

1. Pure salesmanship and craft, in the Daryl Morey way, and we know AKME can’t do this.

2. Your own desperation. As mentioned above, the Bulls have held firm here in not caring about other goals allowing them to remain picky. I don’t think it’s a risk that play will fall off (with Vuc especially), teams are not stupid like the Bulls, they are pricing that in. There is a risk of injury (with LaVine especially) that should make them desperate to get something done by the deadline.

3. The other team’s desperation. While it’s possible that a playoff hopeful⁴ will raise their offer in the next couple weeks, it’s also possible that those same teams may use those intervening weeks to determine it’s no longer worth it. You read that a lot with the Warriors, but it could be posturing.

Needless to say, but will do so anyway: I have zero confidence that they’ll be successful. This front office has shown a complete inability to identify or value players in contracts or trades. A couple deadlines ago (or this past one, who can keep track) not only did Karnisovas misidentify the term “sellers’ market” he didn’t appear to understand what it meant.

These are not smart operators running this team. I don’t think anyone, outside perhaps the credulous PR-affiliated media, thinks that the current stalemate is due to a sudden spasm of competence. Doesn’t mean it’s the wrong thing to do, though, and we have the actual deadline to see if something actually happens.

1. I think KC is forced to keep his twitter account because CHSN has no website, let alone any online presence with the same reach. I am refusing to link it.

2. Joe Cowley, the worst person you know, made a great point re: this last week. I also am refusing the link it.

3. getting lazy, admittedly, but just trust me (and I trust you’ve read it). There was a hilarious KC Johnson video saying “the Bulls would like to do what the Nets did” as if it wasn’t in their control.

4. in the world’s shortest books category: the big game performances of LaVine and Vucevic