Like everything else regarding Vuc to the Bulls, this is an overpayment.
Even on a good deal (which would be like 60% of this one), it'd be unpleasant because Vuc is one of the worst defenders in the league at the most defensively important position.
The only people who think this is a good idea are the ones who still think counting stats are what matters.
The key one is that the NBA now actually posts direct defensive statistics: FG's defended, rates of contesting shots, etc.
Vuc is at the bottom of the league compared to other centers. I've got some advanced methods I'm working on to parse this, but the nutshell version is plainly clear by looking at the stats.nba.com defensive stats.
Next, you've got advanced impact metrics like DARKO and EPM. If you just want to look at role, filter it down to centers who play significant minutes, and you'll see Vuc is at the bottom of the list. Like, EPM shows there are 30 centers who played >24 minutes in > 40 games. Vuc ranked 25th.
If you download DARKO ratings, you can sort through them and you'll see exactly the same thing. Look at other centers, and Vuc is at the bottom. 30th of 30 guys I parsed out.
If you look at WS/48 and compare Vuc to other centers, he's 51st overall, but that's because the methodology overweights centers. If you look at him relative to other centers, he's 22nd! (which means almost half of the top 50 guys based on WS/48 are centers, which should tell you something's wrong). Still... if you just compare centers to other centers, you see that Vuc is pretty below average.
So... that's 4 different methods, and they all say that Vuc is bad.
I'd also add that the team completely fell apart defensively when both Lonzo and AC went down, and the team only started to look decent again when they got Beverley.
THAT much reliance on point-of-attack defense suggests Vooch is a horrible defender. Add to that yfbb's article about Vooch's poor fit on the offensive end as part of the "big 3" and this signing makes even less sense, specially given starter-quality defensive PGs are really hard to come by and are pretty expensive.
So is the team defensive rating metric horseshit? Vuc/Debo/Zach played a lot of minutes this year for a top 5 defense. I guess the center position could no longer be defensively important (defending away from the basket/3-pointers is now all that matters?), or Vuc's weaknesses are hidden by the other 4 starters being superior defenders (doubtful). Calling all stat nerds...
1. The defense hasn't changed much, it's the rest of the league that stopped defending as hard. The Bulls play hard in the regular season.
DRtg
111.6 2021 Pre Trade
111.4 2021 Post Trade
109.4 2022 Lonzo
116.8 2022 Post Lonzo
111.5 2023 Season
League average DRtg has been
112
111.5
113.4
I think you can see pretty clearly what happened last year when we didn't have Lonzo, Caruso, or Pat for a big stretch. We were dying. That's what it looked like when there wasn't anyone around to cover up Vuc.
This year, Coby was much improved, Pat can capably fill a role that wasn't being filled last year, Caruso played more, and I don't think Zach or Debo are actually the terrible defenders they're made out to be, they're not great, but they basically all fill their role.
So, yeah, I think a lot of it comes down to the fact that the team is set up to accommodate the fact that he's a bad defender. Everyone else working hard, and Caruso being a maniac gets us to decent. But we'd be better off with Caruso being a maniac and having a good center.
2. I just don't think there's that much importance in the stat. It shows they were somewhat above average in the regular season. I don't have great faith that they can consistently shut anyone down, and I think they're pretty easy to gameplan against in the playoffs (if they're ever in the playoffs again).
This is a good analysis of why this a bad deal and only tip of the iceberg as to why the Bulls will suck for years to come. Hope the Black Hawks are good next year so we will have something to watch
The Bulls are capped out with no good way to sign a replacement, so it makes sense they would seek to retain the player.
More importantly, if they were to let him go for nothing, they would lose the salary slot in a potential trade down the line.
While we may quibble over the dollar amount of the contract, it is not our money and doesnt really affect any of the flexibility of the team for this season. If anything, it puts them in a better position to trade for AD when the Lakers need the next big shake up for Lebron's year 40 season...
This is ridiculous and wrong. Sure, they wouldn’t have had $20 million to pay for a center, but there aren’t that many centers worth that much. Why overpay for a guy just because you won’t be able to overpay for someone else?
They already had Dummond, and there plenty of centers out there in the word who could provide 1/3 of what Vucevic does for 1/8th the cost. And do you know why that’s a path they should have taken? Because a) Vucevic isn’t actually that good so 1/3 of his value isn’t as big of a drop off as 1/3 of Jokic’s or Embiid’s value, and b) they are the 7th-10th best team in Conference!!! So keeping Vuc over a lesser player makes them a 7th-10th team instead of 9-12. Big whoop. So they’re only Bottom half team instead of a Bottom 10 teen. Whatever. Still in the third quartile of teams.
This is dumb. Instead of taking one step back to try to take more steps forward in the future, they will just slowly lag behind until they’re just a bunch of 35-year-olds playing YMCA ball and wondering why everyone just runs around them.
I am correct. The Bulls do not lose the MLE, BAE or even DPE by signing Vuc. While the Bulls have been hesitant to pay the luxury tax in the past, I have to think they are at least open to it this season.
I don't know how to embed tweets on this platform, but noted Bulls mouthpiece KC Johnson tweeted that AKME has the green light to go into the luxury tax. So, we have been told by the organization they are changing course and will go into the luxury tax, if only for just the one season...
So tell me, who would you rather have that is available for one of the exceptions mentioned above?
1. The likely answer is that they're just lying. They mumble some stupid shit like this every year, and every year they don't do it.
2. They don't do it because it's a zero sum game in the long run. Overpaying one guy means there's less to spend on everyone else. Or less money in Reinsdorf's pocket. Or both. Raising the budget but saying they pay the luxury tax doesn't change that.
If the Bulls pay Vuc $7M too much and budget another $20M to spend, then they could have had $27M to spend if they hadn't overpaid Vuc. If the Bulls budget another $30M to spend, then they could have had $37M if they didn't overpay Vuc. Raising the budget doesn't eliminate the inefficiency. You're still out $7M that you didn't have to be.
Bro I don't want to bag on this but like MikeDC says below, how many times have you heard that? Remember the "equity" they earned from repeatedly dumping players and selling draft picks? Remember the exceptions that expired without being used, intentionally hard-capping themselves by making a trade two separate transactions, etc?
We were promised all this when they traded Luol Deng:
The greenlight is Lucy with the football. It's meaningless. Jerry has revealed two things about his management, in fact he actually brags about them because he can't believe other people don't acknowledge his genius:
1. Always try to finish in 2nd
2. Only pay for a contender for a championship.
Lo and behold, he's never deemed any of his teams "contenders," so it remains a purely theoretical point. They only time they paid the tax was when they couldn't find anyone to take Rip Hamilton, a transaction necessitated because Nate Robinson became the best point guard on the team and they had to guarantee his minimum contract. I'm sure they called the league asking what would happen if they let him walk.
If they theoretically go into it, believe me they will trade their way out before the season's over or die trying. Print this out. You and I will transform into carbon, providing a wonderful bed for microbes, crab grass and dog poop before a Reinsdorf willingly pays the tax again.
The premise being that it is better to resign your good players rather than losing them for nothing? Or the premise that this one move does not preclude the team from making other moves once free agency opens...? Or the premise that it is important to have some high salary assets on your team to be able to swing big trades when star players may be available...?
But I understand, you would prefer the team to target combinations of players to replace Vuc...the old Center by committee. Or if your partial to the second three-peat, the old three headed monster. Lol. But, if they were to find that combination of players using of the available exceptions, then how they improve other parts of the roster? Trades? Vet Minimum players? All of those options are still available to the team....
I'm pretty sure they had those exceptions last season and 2 acquisition windows (2022 FA and Trade Deadline) and didn't do anything with them. You expect them to do use them now...AFTER they extended Vucevic?
I was neither disingenuous nor incorrect, just stating the mechanism through which the team signed a player. Perhaps I should have been more specific in stating the team used a portion of the MLE in making the signing, but that didn't seem necessary considering the salary is (as you noted) slightly above the minimum.
Don't think that is what he's saying. He's just saying signing Vuc doesn't affect their ability to have exceptions. Your point is well taken that the Vuc trade limits their loves since we know the Bulls aren't going into the tax but they could free up enough room to use some of the exceptions. Probably means either trading Caruso or possibly letting Coby go, though.
It's like saying getting shot in your face doesn't affect your ability to have children. You've still got all your reproductive system, after all. So provided getting shot in the face doesn't kill you or make you permanently disabled, you are still able to have children... and pursue a life of religious fulfillment.
And they gave QOs to the other guys (including Terry Taylor!), so....AK's summer is pretty much done. I hope the Illini are decent this year because I don't foresee being able to tolerate watching the same Bulls roster flop around for the 3rd year in a row. It's not fun Jerry!
I’m not that mad now. I was mad at the trade deadline. That was when we could have made some moves to get some value. As soon as they stood Pat, we knew they were overpaying to resign Vooch.
Agree completely. Sure, it sucked seeing it pop up yesterday, but we all knew it was going to happen. AKME made their bed when they didn't do anything at the deadline. We all knew what was coming.
we can't know (last gasp of hope for AK defenders) but I don't think any team wanted to sign Vuc for this price, so no they wouldn't want to trade for him
And that's even assuming he has a good year next year. Yes he's been consistent, but he's 33
"Unlike most extensions, Vucevic’s contract can be traded in July because his salary did not increase by more than five percent in the extension (in fact it almost certainly will decrease in 2023-24, based on the reported contract dollars), and the extension is not for more than three years."
I actually think Hollinger may be wrong here? if looking at old CBA, which this extension was signed under, they consider the remaining year (even if at 6/30) as one, and then can only trade if extended for 1 additional season, not 3 in this case
But either way, it's a moot point since they're not going to trade him this summer after this extension and all the praise. So this doesn't really matter unless someone wanted to be pedantic over what the Bulls could do versus logically would do, and I can't think of anyone that annoying
I re-read Coons FAQ on it and agree with yfbb; I think Hollinger is mistaken since the extension took place during this season and has three more subsequent seasons...
Seems like a non starter anyway, as they are likely not trading him anytime before the deadline...
This doesn't move the needle for me in either direction. It's definitely not a stellar move, but I'm ok with this because I've seen enough solid arguments that Vuc provides more value than most people think.
Just because it's an expected move and isn't earth shaking isn't enough to make me hate it. I'd have preferred some creativity, but if we can get a good PG, I think Vuc will look much better at this price.
For anyone keeping track, I'm sitting at 94% disillusioned/6% hopeful.
I mean I don't dislike him nearly as much as other people but definitely think it was an overpay.
But, I'm not in the camp where I regret the trade etc etc. I just don't see what the team does from here... it feels like it's just going to be another season of running it back with a bunch of a mediocrity and no way to get out of it.
There are two issues at play here: what they could do and what they will do.
Running on what they COULD do... Trade Lavine, DDR, or whoever for a good to great PG. That would move the team forward by a huge step. It would make them a fun playoff team without busting the bank and would give them the ability (which would likely go ignored) to create a baseline to work forward from without doing a full tear down. That's what I want.
As to what they will do... Probably pick up a PG on a vet minimum salary. That would put this team back where they were at the end of last year... right on the edge of making the playoffs.
Assuming Portland does build around Dame, I'm trying to speak DDR for Anfernee Simons into existence, and slot him in as PG. Will it work? No idea! But I think it makes sense for both teams. That said, given the workout videos of DDR the Bulls are posting, I don't expect he's going anywhere.
Honestly, I'm not the best person to figure that out. I don't follow other teams closely enough to know their situations and what might appeal.
Back when Ja was expected to be suspended for half a year or more and they had Tyus Jones as a replacement, I proposed a Lavine for Ja trade. Basically a low risk, high quality scorer for a high risk higher quality PG. That would only have worked if Memphis had been interested in cutting bait with Ja, which it turned out they weren't.
I also had a couple of proposals if they were interested in dealing Tyus Jones, which it turned out they were. Since the Wizards have a ton of PGs, maybe they would be interested in something for him? Maybe a three team trade with Tyus (and filler) to us, Lonzo to team 3 (for the exemption), and whatever the Wizards want (which I have no clue about) to them.
As for who else is available right now? I have no idea.
I'm definitely all aboard the Tyus Jones train. I think we missed our chance before he got traded to Washington though. I assume Washington would want future picks for him, which we don't really have.
The trade I have been pining for is DeRozan and Ball for Simmons and Dinwiddie. Simmons fits well with his ability to defend multiple positions and Diwiddie can partially to fill the offensive shoes of DeMar...
Yeah, that's a pass from me. I'm a big fan of Dinwiddie and I'm still mad at GarPax for choosing Horace's nephew over him when it was clear Dinwiddie was actually going to make a name for himself in the NBA. With that being said, I'm not sure he fits this team that well, plus he's had injury issues the last several years I believe.
And it's just a hard no from me on Simmons. Keep that man as far away as possible.
Look, I was never a fan of the Vuc trade because, contrary to YFBB and some others, I thought the Bulls trying to make the playoffs in 2020-2021 was dumb. The Vuc trade was an overpayment but it should never have been made to begin with. The Bulls handicapped the last rebuild by doing that but the trade itself was the biggest handicap.
That being said, I like Vuc. Definitely an overpayment here but not like...egregiously so. FMV is probably 2 for $30-32M or 3 for $42-45M. $5M per year isn't THAT terrible.
This painting of Vuc that this is an albatross contract and he's terrible is super overboard. He had a 19.1 PER last year, good for #51st best in the league. 3.2 VORP was good for 26th best. I am not saying he IS that good but people seem to be ignoring he's an actual solid player who has been durable. That's going to change, sure, but...
Let's all be real. This team is likely going full teardown and full rebuild after this next season, if not by the deadline. You can lament the 3 years here but there is a salary floor with the NBA. DDR isn't staying and LaVine is getting dealt in the next 12 months. Are we going to care about Vuc's contract when this team becomes one of the league's worst? No. So yeah, $20M for age 35 and 36 Vuc isn't great but it isn't going to hinder anything because the Bulls are going to have plenty of cap space the next few years.
This next rebuild probably takes a minimum of 4 years. I actually do think this team with a starting quality bigger wing could be fun. I'm not the kind of guy who thinks the Bulls could have gotten past the Bucks. But if they actually get some shooting that is bigger than 6'6 and a decent backup center, I think a fun run is possible and that is better than trading DDR for like a young player on a big contract who isn't going to be here in 5 years and a back end 1st to "energize" the 4-7 year rebuild. LaVine's trade value is already low as we have seen so no big miss trading him now. Caruso will still be probably just as valuable by the deadline if this team isn't playoff bound. I'm not worried one more run adds an extra year or two to a rebuild. It's gonna be a long one y'all.
you just have the lowest expectations and thinking there's this threshold where something is so beyond stupid it becomes smart
so you say it doesn't matter if you're doing a teardown that Vuc is going to get you worse (or negative) return in a trade? what kind of logic is that? Why not try and sign guys to value contracts instead? there's more the FO can do than 'not totally hinder'
Look, I'm not the guy who wanted to trade assets to make the playoffs in a weird basketball year and rush the rebuild :P
Sign and trade with who? If you do a sign and trade for Vuc, you're probably getting an asset deal because why would you get vet value? No one is giving you good players now for Vuc. He's solid but aging and not that level of talent.
So if you're trading Vuc for some mystery future asset likely not of high value, I'm not sure who on the market is really a worthwhile center to get to replace him. Market is thin for quality centers.
So what are you really doing? They don't have cap space. Even if they had let Vuc go and released all their cap holds, which wasn't going to happen, they would have had like $17M in cap space. Maybe one good player you could get with that. I don't think that's worth doing.
They're going to have to blow it up for the most part after this season. Get bad in 2024 and 2025, keep their pick. Maybe you can trade Vuc for an expiring or two and a 2nd in 2025 or 2026. See if any of the young guys on this roster are worth keeping.
Building through the draft takes time. I do think we are locked into some bad times ahead. I think like Rockets the past few years bad.
Far be it for me to question the man who was "right" about a trade 3 years ago, but I'm not sure $60 million is the going rate for a 2nd round pick 3 years into the future.
I am also reluctant to argue such an august tactician and his strategy of "who cares, everything's fucked" but perhaps the fact that "nobody is giving you good players" for the guy you just signed to a contract for 3 years is actually a good reason not to sign him to a contract for 3 years.
I think if you've trapped yourself into a situation where you are signing players you don't want to contracts you don't want to give them, then you've fucked yourself, and while I am not a philosopher or military strategist, I am a fan of Sun Tzu's quatrain 79 which reads "Never is it too early to start the unfucking of yourself."
No one is trading currently good players for Vucevic just like no one is trading currently good players for like Brook Lopez either. Expiring and future assets? For Lopez, yes. For Vuc, I guess that is what YFBB is arguing but I think his S+T value was limited.
If they let Vuc go, you're starting your rebuild now I would argue. And since you arent getting anyone really of current positive value, you're taking on expirings in any S+T so you might as well sell off in that scenario too.
The Bulls are an over the cap team. Even if they released all their cap holds and let Vuc go, the max they could get is $17M for cap space. Play it out. I guess you could have used that cap space on like Bruce Brown? Barnes? Use the MLE on...Russell? Or if he wouldnt go for that...Westbrook? Maybe TJ Warren with a vet min? Try Drummond as your starter?
Idk. Brown or Barnes, Russell, and Warren doesn't really feel like it is really that much of a better option.
Christian Wood, Jaxson Hayes, Drummond. You should be able to do that for less than 12, depending on if someone gives a shit about Hayes. The MLE should be enough.
Two players who are seen as flawed, entering FA at the worst possible time, who you could either re-sign or more likely flip at the deadline or in the off-season.
Not bad for a guy who wasn't right about that trade 3 years ago.
It’s objectively funny that this was announced on the same day that the Blackhawks, the team they share a building with, drafted a generational prospect.
It’s like deciding that the day that your sibling gets their acceptance letter to Harvard is the right time to tell your family that you’ve decided to buy a goldfish.
Is there anyone outside of us diehard Bulls fans that’s even going to watch a full game next season? I mean, why would they? Does the front office think the city is going to be sitting on the edge of their seats, waiting to find out if the team can achieve their goal of 41 wins?
The apathy might severely set in this year. To me, that’s what a Vuc contract extension represents: apathy.
I'd argue it would be the opposite. Us diehard fans may not watch that many games because of how frustrated we are with this franchise.
It's the fair weather fans that see three All-stars (or former All-stars) and tune in because they think the team must be good since it has big names on it.
You may be right, but the point still stands. People know who Vooch is and that he's supposedly pretty good. His name has a lot more gravity than WCJ's or Felicio's did.
I think you’re overestimating the knowledge/passion of casual fans. They tune in to watch superstars.
LeBron, Curry, Jokic, Giannis, exciting rookies. Those are the kind of players that casual/bandwagon fans tune in to watch. Not a “good but not great” player who made his last all-star team a couple of seasons ago. They’re ESPECIALLY not going to be excited by that player if they’ve already been here for 2.5 years with nothing to show for it.
Honestly, the most frustrating thing about the Vuc extension is that it’s not a move that appeases any of the fans. It’s annoying for the diehards. It’s boring for the semi-casuals. And it’s completely off the radar for the super-casuals.
It’s not even a move that you can point to as a cash grab. I can count on one hand the amount of Vuc jerseys I’ve seen Bulls fans wear over the past couple of years. And the ticket sales would be exactly the same if the trio was LaVine, DeRozan, and a journeyman center.
The only person who AK made happy with this move (other than Vuc and his agent)….is AK. Because now he can laughably tell himself that the trade with Orlando was worth it, because he got 5.5 years of Vuc out of it.
I'm Derek Smalls, you're David St. Hubbins, and Nigel Tufnel has just quit the band. We're about to play our gig opening for the puppet show and you're asking me how we're supposed to go on stage with a 15 minute setlist and I'm going to look you dead in the eye and with all the force I can muster from the armadillo in my trousers I'm going to tell you this:
Jazz odyssey.
These dudes have decades of selling shitty basketball to fans. There's a Derrick Rose Video Night, perhaps even an actual Derrick Rose on hand for another 40 home games. I have no doubt they can pack the rubes into the building.
But as Tony Wilson said, jazz musicians enjoy what they're doing far more than anyone listening to them. I actually think this repels the diehards. I personally can say I watched fewer games last year than at any time since I was living +8 hours ahead in Moscow. This team is actually a joyless pile of dogshit. Coby and Caruso look like they're having a good time some of the time. DeMar's game-within-a-game to get a shot off or draw a foul is pretty cool. But otherwise, fuck these guys, I'd rather watch Simeon.
Do the Bulls now have to pivot to trading Derozan? I generally think the "trade Derozan to open up shots for X guys are idiots" but I also can't physically watch the Bulls roll out the mid 3 and lie and say their competitive. I need a move for the future of the franchise. Not more time wasting.
No way. There are some mysteries in life, but the Bulls intentions aren't one of them.
They don't sign Vuc because they've suddenly developed a concern for the future. Signing him and then turning around and trading DeRozan for picks or something would be total lunacy.
They want to win games now and be competitive. They're just bad at it.
I think they only are even shopping LaVine if they get someone back who can fill what he does at, say, 75% (and is a lot cheaper)
they can't get that with DeMar. All those contenders would offer would be expiring money and a middling asset who wouldn't help on the court much. Plus DeMar is more valuable on-court to the Bulls than LaVine.
clearly AK is scared to take a step back after already missing out on getting 'dorfs some playoff revenue last year. I don't see any DeRozan trade where they come out more competitive on the floor. I don't really see a LaVine one either, which is probably why they're asking for the moon and getting no traction
I can see a sneaky Chris Paul money dump type trade for Derozan. Like Simmons was talking Derozan for Herro. Miami gets out of that contract, Bulls get much needed young talent. It would take the Bulls recognizing where they are at (not ready to compete) AND realizing they can't resign DDR. But they haven't shown that type of forward thinking.
I'll allow for the circumstances that AK doesn't have any idea what is 'competitive' or what helps winning, so he may think a DeRozan deal is helping and pull the trigger in the face of all evidence that it will
I think a hypothetical DeRozan for Anfernee Simons trade might keep the Bulls around 40 wins. Keep Coby, and start him or Caruso. But the idea would be to actually change the shot profile. Blazers are in a unique position where this young for old might appeal to them to appease Dame.
DeRozan for Simons would hurt a lot more than LaVine for Simmons, but both are obviously bad.
We can't let the need to improve one area blind us to regressing in others. Simons is a tiny dude who can't play defense worth shit.
DeRozan, for all the shit he gets about defense, is basically an average defender for guys his age and size. And his size makes him a better defensive fit than Simons. Also, he brings a different kind of offense.
What I'm saying is, you trade DeMar for Simons and what do your lineups look like? I don't think you can play Coby/Simons/Zach with much regularity. Certainly it's a non-starter in the playoffs.
So in the end, you're trading a guy who's bringing you 34mpg of half-court offense for a guy who's going to maybe give you 28mpg of spot up shooting, which you're already getting from Zach and Coby.
Yes, you add shooting, which is good, but you're taking away a big chunk of everything else. The way the team fits together actually gets quite a lot worse because.
Simons and Zach are a more similar as far as their roles and size, so you're going to have less of those problems. But really, Zach is still a bigger, better player than Simons.
Generally speaking, I don't like Simons much. He's fine, but he's just not big enough to be anything but a PG and not good enough as a PG to actually be a PG.
I'd probably be convinced to trade Zach for Simons and Sharpe though. Sharpe's probably worth it, and we don't get that with trading DeMar for Simons straight up.
I really do hope AK has the old "Green Light" to go into the luxury tax. Because my belief is AK is just bad, and he's delusional. So he might well talk himself into going into the tax for this pretender.
Because the "Green Light" if it exists, probably means Reinsdorf will let AK go into the tax if AK believes it'll produce a contender. But when it doesn't and the end result is that AK incurs a giant bill for a 43 win first round exit, it's gonna be a big strike against him in Reinsdorf's book.
or more likely they go into the tax to start the year, they are on pace for 37 wins (could get to 43 but after the all star break beating up on tanking teams), and has to use assets to get under at the deadline
This is almost certainly an overpay. It's hard to say yet just how bad this extension is exactly, given that the summer hasn't played out yet. However, if this is indeed it in terms of summer moves, then I agree with all the negative posts on this thread. This would be another obvious punt by the front office, since this roster as currently constructed has perhaps the most clearly defined mediocre ceiling in the entire league.
Let me propose the following S&T's as alternatives to just keeping Vuc. I am assuming 3 years 50 as no one else would pay the Bulls rate.
1. Vuc for Nurkic in exchange for dropping Portland's pick protections (assuming they are keeping Dame).
2. Vuc for John Collins (we get younger, they get more professional).
3. Vuc for Zubac and Bones.
There had to be something out there where we replaced a lot of his production and a team with an actual shot at winning got a rotation player with a diverse skill set.
NEW POST
https://open.substack.com/pub/blogabull/p/the-blogabull-2023-free-agency-preview?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2bo
Like everything else regarding Vuc to the Bulls, this is an overpayment.
Even on a good deal (which would be like 60% of this one), it'd be unpleasant because Vuc is one of the worst defenders in the league at the most defensively important position.
The only people who think this is a good idea are the ones who still think counting stats are what matters.
For the record, I don’t think this is a good deal, but what non-counting stats in your opinion say Vuc is garbage?
The key one is that the NBA now actually posts direct defensive statistics: FG's defended, rates of contesting shots, etc.
Vuc is at the bottom of the league compared to other centers. I've got some advanced methods I'm working on to parse this, but the nutshell version is plainly clear by looking at the stats.nba.com defensive stats.
Next, you've got advanced impact metrics like DARKO and EPM. If you just want to look at role, filter it down to centers who play significant minutes, and you'll see Vuc is at the bottom of the list. Like, EPM shows there are 30 centers who played >24 minutes in > 40 games. Vuc ranked 25th.
If you download DARKO ratings, you can sort through them and you'll see exactly the same thing. Look at other centers, and Vuc is at the bottom. 30th of 30 guys I parsed out.
If you look at WS/48 and compare Vuc to other centers, he's 51st overall, but that's because the methodology overweights centers. If you look at him relative to other centers, he's 22nd! (which means almost half of the top 50 guys based on WS/48 are centers, which should tell you something's wrong). Still... if you just compare centers to other centers, you see that Vuc is pretty below average.
So... that's 4 different methods, and they all say that Vuc is bad.
I'd also add that the team completely fell apart defensively when both Lonzo and AC went down, and the team only started to look decent again when they got Beverley.
THAT much reliance on point-of-attack defense suggests Vooch is a horrible defender. Add to that yfbb's article about Vooch's poor fit on the offensive end as part of the "big 3" and this signing makes even less sense, specially given starter-quality defensive PGs are really hard to come by and are pretty expensive.
buT Muh dOubLe-DouBleS!
BuT He CaN sHoOt tHrEeS! (ignore the fact his 3 pt make % has been below 35% two consecutive years)
Second straight year that the current Orlando Magic center shot better from 3 than the one he was traded for. 👍
So is the team defensive rating metric horseshit? Vuc/Debo/Zach played a lot of minutes this year for a top 5 defense. I guess the center position could no longer be defensively important (defending away from the basket/3-pointers is now all that matters?), or Vuc's weaknesses are hidden by the other 4 starters being superior defenders (doubtful). Calling all stat nerds...
I'd attribute it to several things:
1. The defense hasn't changed much, it's the rest of the league that stopped defending as hard. The Bulls play hard in the regular season.
DRtg
111.6 2021 Pre Trade
111.4 2021 Post Trade
109.4 2022 Lonzo
116.8 2022 Post Lonzo
111.5 2023 Season
League average DRtg has been
112
111.5
113.4
I think you can see pretty clearly what happened last year when we didn't have Lonzo, Caruso, or Pat for a big stretch. We were dying. That's what it looked like when there wasn't anyone around to cover up Vuc.
This year, Coby was much improved, Pat can capably fill a role that wasn't being filled last year, Caruso played more, and I don't think Zach or Debo are actually the terrible defenders they're made out to be, they're not great, but they basically all fill their role.
So, yeah, I think a lot of it comes down to the fact that the team is set up to accommodate the fact that he's a bad defender. Everyone else working hard, and Caruso being a maniac gets us to decent. But we'd be better off with Caruso being a maniac and having a good center.
2. I just don't think there's that much importance in the stat. It shows they were somewhat above average in the regular season. I don't have great faith that they can consistently shut anyone down, and I think they're pretty easy to gameplan against in the playoffs (if they're ever in the playoffs again).
This is a good analysis of why this a bad deal and only tip of the iceberg as to why the Bulls will suck for years to come. Hope the Black Hawks are good next year so we will have something to watch
Well.. shit!
Now, please retire Stacey King. I'm not sure I can take another (wasted) year of "it's a simple game".
What an absolute gut-punch indeed.
The Bulls are capped out with no good way to sign a replacement, so it makes sense they would seek to retain the player.
More importantly, if they were to let him go for nothing, they would lose the salary slot in a potential trade down the line.
While we may quibble over the dollar amount of the contract, it is not our money and doesnt really affect any of the flexibility of the team for this season. If anything, it puts them in a better position to trade for AD when the Lakers need the next big shake up for Lebron's year 40 season...
This is ridiculous and wrong. Sure, they wouldn’t have had $20 million to pay for a center, but there aren’t that many centers worth that much. Why overpay for a guy just because you won’t be able to overpay for someone else?
They already had Dummond, and there plenty of centers out there in the word who could provide 1/3 of what Vucevic does for 1/8th the cost. And do you know why that’s a path they should have taken? Because a) Vucevic isn’t actually that good so 1/3 of his value isn’t as big of a drop off as 1/3 of Jokic’s or Embiid’s value, and b) they are the 7th-10th best team in Conference!!! So keeping Vuc over a lesser player makes them a 7th-10th team instead of 9-12. Big whoop. So they’re only Bottom half team instead of a Bottom 10 teen. Whatever. Still in the third quartile of teams.
This is dumb. Instead of taking one step back to try to take more steps forward in the future, they will just slowly lag behind until they’re just a bunch of 35-year-olds playing YMCA ball and wondering why everyone just runs around them.
this is not correct, at all. Unless the Bulls totally change course and go not only over the tax but become a perennial major taxpayer
this does affect the flexibility because they functionally are not able to use exceptions because it adds to payroll
they had plenty of good ways to sign a replacement:
- MLE ($12.4M)
- BAE ($4.5M)
- Lonzo DPE ($10.2M, 1yr)
- [possible TPE or lower-salary player in Vuc S&T]
I am correct. The Bulls do not lose the MLE, BAE or even DPE by signing Vuc. While the Bulls have been hesitant to pay the luxury tax in the past, I have to think they are at least open to it this season.
I don't know how to embed tweets on this platform, but noted Bulls mouthpiece KC Johnson tweeted that AKME has the green light to go into the luxury tax. So, we have been told by the organization they are changing course and will go into the luxury tax, if only for just the one season...
So tell me, who would you rather have that is available for one of the exceptions mentioned above?
1. The likely answer is that they're just lying. They mumble some stupid shit like this every year, and every year they don't do it.
2. They don't do it because it's a zero sum game in the long run. Overpaying one guy means there's less to spend on everyone else. Or less money in Reinsdorf's pocket. Or both. Raising the budget but saying they pay the luxury tax doesn't change that.
If the Bulls pay Vuc $7M too much and budget another $20M to spend, then they could have had $27M to spend if they hadn't overpaid Vuc. If the Bulls budget another $30M to spend, then they could have had $37M if they didn't overpay Vuc. Raising the budget doesn't eliminate the inefficiency. You're still out $7M that you didn't have to be.
Bro I don't want to bag on this but like MikeDC says below, how many times have you heard that? Remember the "equity" they earned from repeatedly dumping players and selling draft picks? Remember the exceptions that expired without being used, intentionally hard-capping themselves by making a trade two separate transactions, etc?
We were promised all this when they traded Luol Deng:
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/10255605/cleveland-cavaliers-agree-trade-andrew-bynum-chicago-bulls-luol-deng
The greenlight is Lucy with the football. It's meaningless. Jerry has revealed two things about his management, in fact he actually brags about them because he can't believe other people don't acknowledge his genius:
1. Always try to finish in 2nd
2. Only pay for a contender for a championship.
Lo and behold, he's never deemed any of his teams "contenders," so it remains a purely theoretical point. They only time they paid the tax was when they couldn't find anyone to take Rip Hamilton, a transaction necessitated because Nate Robinson became the best point guard on the team and they had to guarantee his minimum contract. I'm sure they called the league asking what would happen if they let him walk.
If they theoretically go into it, believe me they will trade their way out before the season's over or die trying. Print this out. You and I will transform into carbon, providing a wonderful bed for microbes, crab grass and dog poop before a Reinsdorf willingly pays the tax again.
well you're wrong in the premise, they're not going to use all those exceptions
but it's easy to come up with combinations of players you'd could get with exceptions versus Vuc at $20M plus minimum signings
The premise being that it is better to resign your good players rather than losing them for nothing? Or the premise that this one move does not preclude the team from making other moves once free agency opens...? Or the premise that it is important to have some high salary assets on your team to be able to swing big trades when star players may be available...?
But I understand, you would prefer the team to target combinations of players to replace Vuc...the old Center by committee. Or if your partial to the second three-peat, the old three headed monster. Lol. But, if they were to find that combination of players using of the available exceptions, then how they improve other parts of the roster? Trades? Vet Minimum players? All of those options are still available to the team....
"Or the premise that this one move does not preclude the team from making other moves once free agency opens"
this one, that's the one
Whatever. We will see if they make any other moves or not...
If they don't, I will return to this thread to eat my crow.
I'm pretty sure they had those exceptions last season and 2 acquisition windows (2022 FA and Trade Deadline) and didn't do anything with them. You expect them to do use them now...AFTER they extended Vucevic?
The BAE was not available last season, nor was the DPE (because the team foolishly didnt file for it). They used the MLE in the signing of Drummond...
ok maybe we're getting somewhere if this is exposing you making a disingenuous argument instead of a merely incorrect one
they used 1/5th of the MLE, and didn't even need to (it was so they could pay Drummond a bit more than the minimum)
I was neither disingenuous nor incorrect, just stating the mechanism through which the team signed a player. Perhaps I should have been more specific in stating the team used a portion of the MLE in making the signing, but that didn't seem necessary considering the salary is (as you noted) slightly above the minimum.
What makes you think they would ever pay the luxury tax? Do you know who Jerry Reinsdork is ?
LOL. The Bulls may not even file for the DPE but we know for dang sure they aren't using it so I don't know why you would even mention it.
because D2.0 thinks they will
Don't think that is what he's saying. He's just saying signing Vuc doesn't affect their ability to have exceptions. Your point is well taken that the Vuc trade limits their loves since we know the Bulls aren't going into the tax but they could free up enough room to use some of the exceptions. Probably means either trading Caruso or possibly letting Coby go, though.
It's like saying getting shot in your face doesn't affect your ability to have children. You've still got all your reproductive system, after all. So provided getting shot in the face doesn't kill you or make you permanently disabled, you are still able to have children... and pursue a life of religious fulfillment.
You went to a pretty dark place there...
And they gave QOs to the other guys (including Terry Taylor!), so....AK's summer is pretty much done. I hope the Illini are decent this year because I don't foresee being able to tolerate watching the same Bulls roster flop around for the 3rd year in a row. It's not fun Jerry!
simple game, Dalibor
I'm tired, boss.
Go into the luxury tax, cowards
How quickly do you have to trade for it to be a S&T vs a wait 6mo be traded? Maybe AKME is still working on the T part??? Smh
This is what I'd like to know too.
I’m not that mad now. I was mad at the trade deadline. That was when we could have made some moves to get some value. As soon as they stood Pat, we knew they were overpaying to resign Vooch.
Agree completely. Sure, it sucked seeing it pop up yesterday, but we all knew it was going to happen. AKME made their bed when they didn't do anything at the deadline. We all knew what was coming.
Is any other team dumb enough to trade for Vuc at this price?
we can't know (last gasp of hope for AK defenders) but I don't think any team wanted to sign Vuc for this price, so no they wouldn't want to trade for him
And that's even assuming he has a good year next year. Yes he's been consistent, but he's 33
this is a contract extension before the new league year so trade is off the table for 6 months.
That is incorrect.
Hollinger said the following in the Athletic https://theathletic.com/4649032/2023/06/28/bulls-nikola-vucevic-extension/ . Link behind a paywall, so here is the relevant text:
"Unlike most extensions, Vucevic’s contract can be traded in July because his salary did not increase by more than five percent in the extension (in fact it almost certainly will decrease in 2023-24, based on the reported contract dollars), and the extension is not for more than three years."
yeah was reading more into that this morning. freaking convoluted rules lol
I actually think Hollinger may be wrong here? if looking at old CBA, which this extension was signed under, they consider the remaining year (even if at 6/30) as one, and then can only trade if extended for 1 additional season, not 3 in this case
But either way, it's a moot point since they're not going to trade him this summer after this extension and all the praise. So this doesn't really matter unless someone wanted to be pedantic over what the Bulls could do versus logically would do, and I can't think of anyone that annoying
I re-read Coons FAQ on it and agree with yfbb; I think Hollinger is mistaken since the extension took place during this season and has three more subsequent seasons...
Seems like a non starter anyway, as they are likely not trading him anytime before the deadline...
lolololololololol
This doesn't move the needle for me in either direction. It's definitely not a stellar move, but I'm ok with this because I've seen enough solid arguments that Vuc provides more value than most people think.
Just because it's an expected move and isn't earth shaking isn't enough to make me hate it. I'd have preferred some creativity, but if we can get a good PG, I think Vuc will look much better at this price.
For anyone keeping track, I'm sitting at 94% disillusioned/6% hopeful.
I mean I don't dislike him nearly as much as other people but definitely think it was an overpay.
But, I'm not in the camp where I regret the trade etc etc. I just don't see what the team does from here... it feels like it's just going to be another season of running it back with a bunch of a mediocrity and no way to get out of it.
There are two issues at play here: what they could do and what they will do.
Running on what they COULD do... Trade Lavine, DDR, or whoever for a good to great PG. That would move the team forward by a huge step. It would make them a fun playoff team without busting the bank and would give them the ability (which would likely go ignored) to create a baseline to work forward from without doing a full tear down. That's what I want.
As to what they will do... Probably pick up a PG on a vet minimum salary. That would put this team back where they were at the end of last year... right on the edge of making the playoffs.
Just curious, who would be the good to great point guard they'd trade for and what would the trade look like?
Assuming Portland does build around Dame, I'm trying to speak DDR for Anfernee Simons into existence, and slot him in as PG. Will it work? No idea! But I think it makes sense for both teams. That said, given the workout videos of DDR the Bulls are posting, I don't expect he's going anywhere.
I like this trade, not sure Simons is a PG, but it’s youth and 3pt shooting for a guy who won’t resign.
Honestly, I'm not the best person to figure that out. I don't follow other teams closely enough to know their situations and what might appeal.
Back when Ja was expected to be suspended for half a year or more and they had Tyus Jones as a replacement, I proposed a Lavine for Ja trade. Basically a low risk, high quality scorer for a high risk higher quality PG. That would only have worked if Memphis had been interested in cutting bait with Ja, which it turned out they weren't.
I also had a couple of proposals if they were interested in dealing Tyus Jones, which it turned out they were. Since the Wizards have a ton of PGs, maybe they would be interested in something for him? Maybe a three team trade with Tyus (and filler) to us, Lonzo to team 3 (for the exemption), and whatever the Wizards want (which I have no clue about) to them.
As for who else is available right now? I have no idea.
I'm definitely all aboard the Tyus Jones train. I think we missed our chance before he got traded to Washington though. I assume Washington would want future picks for him, which we don't really have.
Weird. Substack double posted my reply and then when I deleted one, it deleted both.
I think you are right. That's why I included a hypothetical third team.
Lonzo was just a hypothetical, too. There's no one on the team I wouldn't be willing to include in a trade to get a PG of Tyus's level or better.
The trade I have been pining for is DeRozan and Ball for Simmons and Dinwiddie. Simmons fits well with his ability to defend multiple positions and Diwiddie can partially to fill the offensive shoes of DeMar...
Yeah, that's a pass from me. I'm a big fan of Dinwiddie and I'm still mad at GarPax for choosing Horace's nephew over him when it was clear Dinwiddie was actually going to make a name for himself in the NBA. With that being said, I'm not sure he fits this team that well, plus he's had injury issues the last several years I believe.
And it's just a hard no from me on Simmons. Keep that man as far away as possible.
Ben Simmons? lmbo
They won’t even do this. They’ll probably just tout player development and how much better Coby has gotten and have him play pg next year.
Look, I was never a fan of the Vuc trade because, contrary to YFBB and some others, I thought the Bulls trying to make the playoffs in 2020-2021 was dumb. The Vuc trade was an overpayment but it should never have been made to begin with. The Bulls handicapped the last rebuild by doing that but the trade itself was the biggest handicap.
That being said, I like Vuc. Definitely an overpayment here but not like...egregiously so. FMV is probably 2 for $30-32M or 3 for $42-45M. $5M per year isn't THAT terrible.
This painting of Vuc that this is an albatross contract and he's terrible is super overboard. He had a 19.1 PER last year, good for #51st best in the league. 3.2 VORP was good for 26th best. I am not saying he IS that good but people seem to be ignoring he's an actual solid player who has been durable. That's going to change, sure, but...
Let's all be real. This team is likely going full teardown and full rebuild after this next season, if not by the deadline. You can lament the 3 years here but there is a salary floor with the NBA. DDR isn't staying and LaVine is getting dealt in the next 12 months. Are we going to care about Vuc's contract when this team becomes one of the league's worst? No. So yeah, $20M for age 35 and 36 Vuc isn't great but it isn't going to hinder anything because the Bulls are going to have plenty of cap space the next few years.
This next rebuild probably takes a minimum of 4 years. I actually do think this team with a starting quality bigger wing could be fun. I'm not the kind of guy who thinks the Bulls could have gotten past the Bucks. But if they actually get some shooting that is bigger than 6'6 and a decent backup center, I think a fun run is possible and that is better than trading DDR for like a young player on a big contract who isn't going to be here in 5 years and a back end 1st to "energize" the 4-7 year rebuild. LaVine's trade value is already low as we have seen so no big miss trading him now. Caruso will still be probably just as valuable by the deadline if this team isn't playoff bound. I'm not worried one more run adds an extra year or two to a rebuild. It's gonna be a long one y'all.
you just have the lowest expectations and thinking there's this threshold where something is so beyond stupid it becomes smart
so you say it doesn't matter if you're doing a teardown that Vuc is going to get you worse (or negative) return in a trade? what kind of logic is that? Why not try and sign guys to value contracts instead? there's more the FO can do than 'not totally hinder'
Look, I'm not the guy who wanted to trade assets to make the playoffs in a weird basketball year and rush the rebuild :P
Sign and trade with who? If you do a sign and trade for Vuc, you're probably getting an asset deal because why would you get vet value? No one is giving you good players now for Vuc. He's solid but aging and not that level of talent.
So if you're trading Vuc for some mystery future asset likely not of high value, I'm not sure who on the market is really a worthwhile center to get to replace him. Market is thin for quality centers.
So what are you really doing? They don't have cap space. Even if they had let Vuc go and released all their cap holds, which wasn't going to happen, they would have had like $17M in cap space. Maybe one good player you could get with that. I don't think that's worth doing.
They're going to have to blow it up for the most part after this season. Get bad in 2024 and 2025, keep their pick. Maybe you can trade Vuc for an expiring or two and a 2nd in 2025 or 2026. See if any of the young guys on this roster are worth keeping.
Building through the draft takes time. I do think we are locked into some bad times ahead. I think like Rockets the past few years bad.
Far be it for me to question the man who was "right" about a trade 3 years ago, but I'm not sure $60 million is the going rate for a 2nd round pick 3 years into the future.
I am also reluctant to argue such an august tactician and his strategy of "who cares, everything's fucked" but perhaps the fact that "nobody is giving you good players" for the guy you just signed to a contract for 3 years is actually a good reason not to sign him to a contract for 3 years.
I think if you've trapped yourself into a situation where you are signing players you don't want to contracts you don't want to give them, then you've fucked yourself, and while I am not a philosopher or military strategist, I am a fan of Sun Tzu's quatrain 79 which reads "Never is it too early to start the unfucking of yourself."
No one is trading currently good players for Vucevic just like no one is trading currently good players for like Brook Lopez either. Expiring and future assets? For Lopez, yes. For Vuc, I guess that is what YFBB is arguing but I think his S+T value was limited.
If they let Vuc go, you're starting your rebuild now I would argue. And since you arent getting anyone really of current positive value, you're taking on expirings in any S+T so you might as well sell off in that scenario too.
The Bulls are an over the cap team. Even if they released all their cap holds and let Vuc go, the max they could get is $17M for cap space. Play it out. I guess you could have used that cap space on like Bruce Brown? Barnes? Use the MLE on...Russell? Or if he wouldnt go for that...Westbrook? Maybe TJ Warren with a vet min? Try Drummond as your starter?
Idk. Brown or Barnes, Russell, and Warren doesn't really feel like it is really that much of a better option.
> Play it out.
Christian Wood, Jaxson Hayes, Drummond. You should be able to do that for less than 12, depending on if someone gives a shit about Hayes. The MLE should be enough.
Two players who are seen as flawed, entering FA at the worst possible time, who you could either re-sign or more likely flip at the deadline or in the off-season.
Not bad for a guy who wasn't right about that trade 3 years ago.
It’s objectively funny that this was announced on the same day that the Blackhawks, the team they share a building with, drafted a generational prospect.
It’s like deciding that the day that your sibling gets their acceptance letter to Harvard is the right time to tell your family that you’ve decided to buy a goldfish.
Is there anyone outside of us diehard Bulls fans that’s even going to watch a full game next season? I mean, why would they? Does the front office think the city is going to be sitting on the edge of their seats, waiting to find out if the team can achieve their goal of 41 wins?
The apathy might severely set in this year. To me, that’s what a Vuc contract extension represents: apathy.
I'd argue it would be the opposite. Us diehard fans may not watch that many games because of how frustrated we are with this franchise.
It's the fair weather fans that see three All-stars (or former All-stars) and tune in because they think the team must be good since it has big names on it.
I don't think any casuals consider Vuc an All-Star, even if he made the team in the past
You may be right, but the point still stands. People know who Vooch is and that he's supposedly pretty good. His name has a lot more gravity than WCJ's or Felicio's did.
I think you’re overestimating the knowledge/passion of casual fans. They tune in to watch superstars.
LeBron, Curry, Jokic, Giannis, exciting rookies. Those are the kind of players that casual/bandwagon fans tune in to watch. Not a “good but not great” player who made his last all-star team a couple of seasons ago. They’re ESPECIALLY not going to be excited by that player if they’ve already been here for 2.5 years with nothing to show for it.
Honestly, the most frustrating thing about the Vuc extension is that it’s not a move that appeases any of the fans. It’s annoying for the diehards. It’s boring for the semi-casuals. And it’s completely off the radar for the super-casuals.
It’s not even a move that you can point to as a cash grab. I can count on one hand the amount of Vuc jerseys I’ve seen Bulls fans wear over the past couple of years. And the ticket sales would be exactly the same if the trio was LaVine, DeRozan, and a journeyman center.
The only person who AK made happy with this move (other than Vuc and his agent)….is AK. Because now he can laughably tell himself that the trade with Orlando was worth it, because he got 5.5 years of Vuc out of it.
Not sure what category Twitter fans fall into, but there were a whole lot of them yesterday who thought it was a great deal.
Alot of casuals, some trolls, and a few smart people.
I'm Derek Smalls, you're David St. Hubbins, and Nigel Tufnel has just quit the band. We're about to play our gig opening for the puppet show and you're asking me how we're supposed to go on stage with a 15 minute setlist and I'm going to look you dead in the eye and with all the force I can muster from the armadillo in my trousers I'm going to tell you this:
Jazz odyssey.
These dudes have decades of selling shitty basketball to fans. There's a Derrick Rose Video Night, perhaps even an actual Derrick Rose on hand for another 40 home games. I have no doubt they can pack the rubes into the building.
But as Tony Wilson said, jazz musicians enjoy what they're doing far more than anyone listening to them. I actually think this repels the diehards. I personally can say I watched fewer games last year than at any time since I was living +8 hours ahead in Moscow. This team is actually a joyless pile of dogshit. Coby and Caruso look like they're having a good time some of the time. DeMar's game-within-a-game to get a shot off or draw a foul is pretty cool. But otherwise, fuck these guys, I'd rather watch Simeon.
Do the Bulls now have to pivot to trading Derozan? I generally think the "trade Derozan to open up shots for X guys are idiots" but I also can't physically watch the Bulls roll out the mid 3 and lie and say their competitive. I need a move for the future of the franchise. Not more time wasting.
No way. There are some mysteries in life, but the Bulls intentions aren't one of them.
They don't sign Vuc because they've suddenly developed a concern for the future. Signing him and then turning around and trading DeRozan for picks or something would be total lunacy.
They want to win games now and be competitive. They're just bad at it.
I mean they are reportedly shopping Zach for a young player and picks, so as I said in the other thread, the moves don't seem to fit together.
Trading DDR now avoids the problem you had with Vuc. And I can see his expiring contract being valuable to some.
I can see the Lakers, Heat, or Philly having interests.
it comes back to the 'being competitive' goal
I think they only are even shopping LaVine if they get someone back who can fill what he does at, say, 75% (and is a lot cheaper)
they can't get that with DeMar. All those contenders would offer would be expiring money and a middling asset who wouldn't help on the court much. Plus DeMar is more valuable on-court to the Bulls than LaVine.
clearly AK is scared to take a step back after already missing out on getting 'dorfs some playoff revenue last year. I don't see any DeRozan trade where they come out more competitive on the floor. I don't really see a LaVine one either, which is probably why they're asking for the moon and getting no traction
I can see a sneaky Chris Paul money dump type trade for Derozan. Like Simmons was talking Derozan for Herro. Miami gets out of that contract, Bulls get much needed young talent. It would take the Bulls recognizing where they are at (not ready to compete) AND realizing they can't resign DDR. But they haven't shown that type of forward thinking.
I am on team trade DeRozan, but I don't see Herro & LaVine being a winning wing combo...
This is my understanding too.
There are (hypothetical trades of LaVine that keep them around 40 wins). I don't think there are hypothetical trades of DeRozan that do that.
I'll allow for the circumstances that AK doesn't have any idea what is 'competitive' or what helps winning, so he may think a DeRozan deal is helping and pull the trigger in the face of all evidence that it will
accidental tank
I think an accidental tank is probably this team's best bet right now.
I think a hypothetical DeRozan for Anfernee Simons trade might keep the Bulls around 40 wins. Keep Coby, and start him or Caruso. But the idea would be to actually change the shot profile. Blazers are in a unique position where this young for old might appeal to them to appease Dame.
DeRozan for Simons would hurt a lot more than LaVine for Simmons, but both are obviously bad.
We can't let the need to improve one area blind us to regressing in others. Simons is a tiny dude who can't play defense worth shit.
DeRozan, for all the shit he gets about defense, is basically an average defender for guys his age and size. And his size makes him a better defensive fit than Simons. Also, he brings a different kind of offense.
What I'm saying is, you trade DeMar for Simons and what do your lineups look like? I don't think you can play Coby/Simons/Zach with much regularity. Certainly it's a non-starter in the playoffs.
So in the end, you're trading a guy who's bringing you 34mpg of half-court offense for a guy who's going to maybe give you 28mpg of spot up shooting, which you're already getting from Zach and Coby.
Yes, you add shooting, which is good, but you're taking away a big chunk of everything else. The way the team fits together actually gets quite a lot worse because.
Simons and Zach are a more similar as far as their roles and size, so you're going to have less of those problems. But really, Zach is still a bigger, better player than Simons.
Generally speaking, I don't like Simons much. He's fine, but he's just not big enough to be anything but a PG and not good enough as a PG to actually be a PG.
I'd probably be convinced to trade Zach for Simons and Sharpe though. Sharpe's probably worth it, and we don't get that with trading DeMar for Simons straight up.
They fit together fine.
1. They want to win today and they would only trade Zach if they got an absolute haul.
2. No other team values Zach like that, so the Bulls are proceeding on their merry way to another 36-44 win season.
I consider this to be just another step in the 2025-2026 tank plan.
I really do hope AK has the old "Green Light" to go into the luxury tax. Because my belief is AK is just bad, and he's delusional. So he might well talk himself into going into the tax for this pretender.
Because the "Green Light" if it exists, probably means Reinsdorf will let AK go into the tax if AK believes it'll produce a contender. But when it doesn't and the end result is that AK incurs a giant bill for a 43 win first round exit, it's gonna be a big strike against him in Reinsdorf's book.
or more likely they go into the tax to start the year, they are on pace for 37 wins (could get to 43 but after the all star break beating up on tanking teams), and has to use assets to get under at the deadline
Also a likely outcome. Also would be a good outcome, because it'd still be a strike against AK.
This is almost certainly an overpay. It's hard to say yet just how bad this extension is exactly, given that the summer hasn't played out yet. However, if this is indeed it in terms of summer moves, then I agree with all the negative posts on this thread. This would be another obvious punt by the front office, since this roster as currently constructed has perhaps the most clearly defined mediocre ceiling in the entire league.
Let me propose the following S&T's as alternatives to just keeping Vuc. I am assuming 3 years 50 as no one else would pay the Bulls rate.
1. Vuc for Nurkic in exchange for dropping Portland's pick protections (assuming they are keeping Dame).
2. Vuc for John Collins (we get younger, they get more professional).
3. Vuc for Zubac and Bones.
There had to be something out there where we replaced a lot of his production and a team with an actual shot at winning got a rotation player with a diverse skill set.