It's all riding on Josh Giddey. Uh oh.

the lazy, laser-focused Bulls put too much on one "young, yet experienced" player

I understand all too well, after 20-plus summers, that it’s tough to come up with content this time of the NBA calendar. Especially for an upcoming Bulls season that’s sure to be bad and boring, with the only positive outlook being if something is ‘achieved’ (a top 2025 pick) by ways unintended by the front office.

So I’m not surprised to see speculation of fellow Bulls observers talking about their full roster, and speculation over how Billy Donovan can possibly juggle all this talent in a playing rotation.

Here at BlogABull.com, we recognize that nobody professionally covering this team actually has the ability or desire to learn anything. Thus, especially in August, we can make the same facile ‘expected to’ prognostications as they can:

1. Lonzo Ball isn’t coming back. All positive news on his recovery reminds me of Brandon Roy’s comeback ten years ago after he had missed a season and a half. He played 5 games before retiring for good. The Bulls keeping Lonzo around instead of waiving and stretching him now looks like blatant cheapness overriding adding to the asset base of the team. It stinks and overrides any ‘feel good’ element of the team sponsoring his Instagram or podcast. I feel good for him if he comes back¹, but as a Bulls fan that is secondary.

2. Zach LaVine played his last game for the Bulls. I amend my earlier prediction regarding this situation to add that LaVine may participate in training camp just to ‘show’ he’s healthy. I don’t think that’s necessary, or will make a difference when it comes to other teams’ interest, but it’ll be something for Zach to do as a professional basketball player. If somehow the Bulls still are unable to make a trade, they’ll agree to stay apart. All indications are that Zach and the Bulls are done with each other, and have been for a while.

3. When LaVine is traded² it’ll be for players with less burdensome contracts , nobody interesting and young enough to demand minutes in this year’s rotation.

With that all established, suddenly any potential guard logjam has disappeared, and now it’s looking quite easy to sketch out a playing rotation for Billy Donovan³.

And starting at one of those guard spots is the biggest addition for these changed Bulls in Josh Giddey. Though the accidental teardown still has a couple junk piles to remove, Giddey will always be the most interesting return. Which is fitting, as the Bulls used their best asset to acquire him.

And that acquisition, as a transaction, was terrible, unjustifiable, and another bullet point in the “fireable offenses” list for the AKME regime:

the Bulls are sticking with their direction: aimless incompetence losing on the margins (and more)

BUT, that’s all in the past⁴. What can we analyze and speculate when it comes to Josh Giddey, in isolation as a player, coming into this season as a 22 year old lead ballhandler?

We can start with how the Bulls themselves feel, as laundered through Woj at the time of the trade:

The Bulls have been determined to find a playmaker to replace Lonzo Ball, and Giddey, 21, comes with All-Star potential that would be unlikely to be realized with the Thunder because of the playmaking star power that surrounded him.

And from Arturas Karnisovas himself, though in his un-laundered mumble, emphasizing Giddey as a ‘playmaker’ and adding an…interesting…overall philosophy on skill development:

“most of the players that come to our league become better shooters. I think once he becomes a better shooter he is going to be a threat and then he's going to be able to play-make [even] better”

That shooting (lack of) skill brings us back to the Lonzo Ball comparison. Lonzo came to the Bulls having fixed his shot already, going from liability to weapon in his age-22 season.

It’s possible for Giddey to make a similar leap. He did shoot over 47% from three in the Olympics for Team Australia, but important to note that line is of shorter distance. And if looking at sample size to caveat those statistics, can go the other way when seeing he shot a dismal 53.8% from the free throw line.

In those Olympic games, there were positives in that outside shooting performance and confirming an already-demonstrated court vision in both transition and the half court.

But looking beyond that showed the already-demonstrated warts. Here is some analysis from Bleacher Nation on his inside-the-arc play:

his aggressiveness to attack off the dribble would come and go. His finishing is also something I worry about a little moving forward. There is no denying he has a lethal running floater and can knock down some strange off-balance shots, but his touch can come and go. Giddey’s 52.3 EFG% last season only ranked in the league’s 38th percentile, and this was the best mark of his three-year career. Specifically at the rim, he was a disappointing 60 percent, per Cleaning the Glass.

And Julia Powe of the Chicago Tribune on the turnovers (4.25 per game in the Olympics):

coughing up seven in Tuesday’s elimination game against Serbia — including a brutal giveaway in the final 24 seconds of overtime. Australia’s offense thrived in transition, but when its opponents scored frequently enough to dry up opportunities to push the pace, the Aussies became somewhat stymied in the half court. This is when Giddey’s decision making cropped up as he forced the ball unnecessarily and rushed passes while attempting to set a higher tempo.

And this is all delaying touching on an extremely important ability/skill: defense. When comparing to Lonzo Ball, defense is perhaps the biggest gap, with the lowest likelihood of closing it.

Will Gottlieb at Chuggo summed up the two succinctly:

Where Ball was the ultimate role player who could fit around anyone and make them better, Giddey requires a carefully designed infrastructure to maximize his strengths and cover his weaknesses. This means the Bulls will have to construct their roster with Giddey in mind, rather than having the flexibility they had with Ball.

And I think this comparison to Ball is even harder for Giddey to fulfill because this offseason sees him not just be ‘replacing’ Lonzo, the 4th most important starter on the AKME dream team⁵. With other departures, and all indications that LaVine will join them (for not much in return), Giddey is looking to be the team’s 2nd most important player this season.

And one of the most important players in this “youth movement, per se” as Karnisovas so eloquently put this new core. Both Karnisovas and similarly-dumb-sounding Marc Eversley have been as adamant as they can be: their goal in this accidental teardown was to get young players who were already productive NBA players. AK mentioned “triple-doubles” explicitly, and I don’t doubt Giddey will put up counting stats. He did for Oklahoma City, and for Team Australia.

But doing so while inefficient when scoring, and a defensive detriment, and thus not really helping the team (outside of defensive rebounding)…that’s not the next Lonzo Ball, that’s the next Nikola Vucevic.

One glaring difference between the two is that playing Giddey a lot should at least make for a more fun brand of basketball. We should expect to hear during training camp this season, amplified by state media, how excited Billy Donovan is to play faster, as he’ll be burdened no longer by actually good deliberate players like DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine.

Like I said way back at the top of this post, the rotation looks pretty clear:

starters: Giddey / White / ??? / Williams / Vuc
bench: Ayo, Carter, Smith, Terry/Phillips (Buzelis isn’t going to play much at age 20 unless/until injuries)

Josh Giddey is not penciled but permanent marker-ed at point guard, and I suppose would be defending the opponent’s small forward? And you’d then start at wing whoever is left on the team after the inevitable LaVine trade (Torrey Craig, Chris Duarte, Rui Hachimura)?

I’m not saying this is a quality rotation, just that it is easy to figure out. And also easy to figure out is they’ll be very bad defensively. Can a team effectively run when they’re taking the ball out of the basket?

Josh Giddey could evolve into a useful player, and is young enough to get that change. He’s also over-promoted as the centerpiece of a rebuild-that-shall-not-be-named. Despite what comes from the Bulls’ internal bubble and external boasting, this is an extremely poor team they put together. Here’s hoping that doesn’t stall or adversely effect Giddey’s own personal development. Because regardless of actually improving, I expect Giddey to put up AK-arousing numbers and earn himself a big contract extension next summer.

I suppose a silver lining is that maybe due to this awful mismanagement there actually isn’t that much pressure on Giddey. The actual centerpiece of the next great⁶ Bulls team isn’t on the team yet, with the best chance at acquiring that player being “earned” by being terrible this year. More on that depressing dynamic next time.

1. Also, if he actually plays this year then ‘dorfCorp won’t get that fat insurance reimbursement.

2. or “if”? AKME is really bad at their jobs, far worse than Zach is at his

3. It’s a perk of having the Bulls job, behind being very well-paid and untouchable but maybe slightly ahead of having your son hired by the program

4. well, the opportunity cost and repercussions are still to come, and the same bozos are in charge, but that actual move is done and gone

5. banner raising this winter for being in first place in bad conference after 48 games or whatever that magical stretch wound up topping out at

6. earning playoff home gate revenue while being a bottom-ten payroll