Bulls vs. Hawks play-in preview: it's mandatory per the CBA

"it's all riding on this" - shortsighted Bulls management (probably)

My big picture feelings surrounding this game, including lamentation that the current front office doesn’t think in terms of the ‘big picture’, were all posted yesterday.

The Play-In cannot salvage this putrid Bulls season

Old friend Ricky O’Donnell posited an interesting “root against” concept for tonight: “suffering maximum humiliation is the only thing that may get them to change course”

“May” is the key word there. Arturas Karnisovas made it very clear after the trade deadline that results don’t matter. OK, maybe getting two victories and then two more home date revenue influxes would matter. But beyond that, just a close competitive game will mean a fun night at the stadium, and we’ve been told that’s all we can ask for. So, yeah, maybe “maximum humiliation” in front of the paying customer would mean something.

That’s not very likely to happen though, because the Atlanta Hawks also stink. If looking at the totality of the season, thus not segmenting out arbitrary points to maximize spin, they are both slightly-below-average squads given a gift by the league to even have a chance at making the playoffs.

At The Sporting News, Stephen Noh (another old friend!) has a rigorously detailed breakdown of what these two teams can likely do to press what meager advantages they have against eachother.

I can’t help but hone in on this line:

It seems overly simplistic to say that if the Hawks shoot well from 3, they will win the game. But that's what's going to happen.

The Bulls defensive scheme (overcompensate in all areas to help Vucevic’s confidence as he deteriorates physically) finally stopped getting away with it, ending this season giving up a league-worst number of three point attempts (including those tracked as “open” by the league). And with their now starting-3-guard-lineup of Young, Murray, and Bogdanovic, plus some added space created by a rim-running center in Capela, the Hawks offense will gladly hoist from distance if you let them.

(thankfully, Bulls catch a break with Atlanta two-way player Vit Krejci - he of the 6/6 from three performance in Chicago last month - ineligible for the ‘postseason’)

The Bulls, meanwhile, will go to their modus operandi in trying to overcome the very likely gap in outside shooting.

1. A ton of DeMar DeRozan to lower turnovers and get decent shots. DeMar gets a nice matchup here as the Hawks are Bullsian in their lack of healthy wings. It’s essentially only De’Andre Hunter with the size to check, and if DDR baits Hunter into foul trouble they may be dusting off 6’5” Wesley Matthews.

2. Offensive rebounding to generate more possessions.

3. Transition offense as the Hawks are really poor at that aspect of team defense.

The latter two points are severely impacted by injuries, as both Andre Drummond and Ayo Dosunmu are questionable. What I gather from the beat corps is that it’s looking unlikely Drummond will play (Hawks thankfully don’t have a capable backup center either), but Ayo will likely give it a go.

I see this game playing out one of two ways: either the Hawks hit a ton of threes and blow the Bulls out (outside of some 15-2 fake rally to start the fourth quarter to stave off outright embarrassment), or the Hawks struggle to shoot and it’s a close game late where DeRozan and Caruso pull out another clutch victory.

Now how it plays out in the big picture is a different question, but we’ll have all summer for that. Whether it’s after tonight or in a couple weeks.