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Nov 19
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Chi-Fed's avatar

Going by what they’ve done in the past, I’m sure that the Bulls will resign him in the offseason. I’m really not sure how much they will pay him, but it will probably be too much.

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

I'd be interested to see what Giddey's market value is (not counting whatever number AK probably overpays him at). He and Pat are both similar in that they're young, high draft picks with a lot of room to theoretically improve over the next several years. They're also very similar in that they're young, high draft picks who have basically not improved since coming into the league.

On paper, Giddey would appear to be the better player. Considerably better counting stats and has had a bigger role since entering the league. On the other hand, while Giddey is technically better at more things, the two things Pat is above average at are arguably the two most important things in the NBA. Conversely, Giddey is terrible at those two things.

I'm inclined to say anything over $20 million a year - assuming Giddey doesn't significantly improve as the season goes on, which seems highly unlikely - would be a considerable overpay. And honestly, just about anything over the MLE would be an overpay for the Bulls with where they're currently at. It's abundantly clear Giddey is not a guy you build around, and the Bulls are currently in rebuild mode. If you re-sign him, it's to be a backup, or at least it should be.

If AK were smart, and he's definitely not, he'd be shopping Giddey at the deadline along with Zach and Vooch.

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Nov 19
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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

I don't think Giddey is necessarily untradeable, but you're definitely not getting something decent in return. He may even require other assets just to move him.

Edit: probably goes without saying, but if they can't trade him without giving up assets, it would be better to just let him go next summer.

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TheMoon's avatar

When AK said his goal was for the Bulls to be good at home, did anyone follow that up and ask what steps the team can take to achieve that? "Be good at home" is sort of like "be good in the clutch", right? Like, if you can make a decision to do that, shouldn't you just try to be good all the time?

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

lol, no follow up. He even said in this context that he "didn't know why we were worse at home" which suggests, like you did, that he doesn't even recognize that this isn't even a thing to assess. Unless, like, the rims are different at the UC

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

At least with clutch you can reason it's a different style of play to try and solve for. I think AK is so dumb he is like racking his brain wondering if too much family in the audience makes them shoot worse

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

Who finishes the season with more dunks - Pat or Giddey?

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CE's avatar

2 to 2 so far.

Bulls have 35 dunks on the season, league average is ~66. Hawks have 104. A league best pace with a league worst #dunks has got to be groundbreaking.

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CE's avatar

The Detroit game was slowest in pace so far, 95.9 (Bulls at 104.7 overall). Coming on the heels of a deep in their feelings loss, I'm curious if that's on purpose.

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Chi-Fed's avatar

Both teams were on the second night of back-to-backs so they might have been just tired.

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Rich Karpinski's avatar

Watch the Giddey-blow-by teammate body language. It's pretty clear. All I see is a big $ sign when I watch him plodding along, which is why I despise him so much. Inevitable overpay/commit.

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

forgot to add this to the post, but re: Patrick Williams not looking right physically

__Patrick Williams has gone from “probable” with “bilateral foot soreness” before the Pistons game Monday to “questionable” for Wednesday’s tilt with the Bucks.__

(via Drew Stevens of TheBigs)

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

***

@KCJHoop

Patrick Williams is back in Chicago having imaging done on his foot, per Bulls PR. He’s out vs. Bucks. According to the Bulls, the frontloaded schedule has created a need to take a cautious approach. Williams said on Monday he feels fine.

***

Welp see ya next year. He'll still be only 24!

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

Giannis going for 50 tonight against a mix of Craig, Phillips, and Matas.

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

Update, and reminder it may not even be enough to say 'Bulls PR' without adding they lie

***

@Will_Gottlieb

Billy Donovan on Patrick Williams foot: "he's got some inflammation in that area. He needs to get with a doctor and get some consultation."

"He will be out this game and the back to back"

says it's going to be at least "a week or so" to get the inflammation to calm down and they will come up with a plan from there

Sounds like it could be a while

***

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MikeDC's avatar

I've always thought "playing fast" was pretty stupid. This team really confirms it for me.

If you are inefficient and give up more points per possession than you can score (DRtg < ORtg) then adding possessions makes you lose. You're better off slowing the game down. That way, you keep it within a margin where regular variance might give you a shot to win a couple extra possessions and win the game.

The way they're playing now, they're going to be giving up in the 140s regularly and there's no way they score that much regularly.

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Rich Karpinski's avatar

Yep. Same with shooting a lot of threes. You can get some value just from floor spacing by doing it, but if you don't shoot a good %....you lose. Stats are hard for some, I guess (including AK/Billy) -- ie, valuing Giddey's counting numbers vs. +/-....

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

I don't disagree with your thoughts on AK, but the stats don't exactly back up what you're saying. The Bulls are 9th in 3p% and 3rd in attempts per game.

I should clarify that I don't think this team is a good three point shooting team and I very much expect their percentages to drop as the season goes along. Guys like Vooch and Giddey will not be able to keep their percentages where they currently are.

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

I'm not sure I agree with this. Most of their wins this year have come from them either shooting abnormally well from deep on a ton of attempts or other teams shooting abnormally poorly while they still get up enough shots to eke out a win. Neither of those options are possible if the Bulls are playing like they did last year.

They're playing to the strengths of their offense currently. They have basically no half-court offense now that DeMar is gone so they try to limit how much half-court offense they're forced to play.

Their defense is going to be bad regardless, so limiting how many defensive possessions there are seems like it would impact the game less than maximizing how many offensive possessions there are.

I really have no stats to back that up though. Simply just the eye test. It seems like most of their wins this year have been because they're playing much faster and shooting a million threes.

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MikeDC's avatar

I think that’s the theory of playing fast I’m just really a believer.

That is, the Bulls theory is that they win games because sometimes they’re hot, and if they launch up a ton of shots they will ride hot streaks to victory.

The reason I’m not a believer is that it’s a statistical fact that variance decreases with sample size. By increasing the pace, what you are actually doing is increasing the sample size. More shots.

So you ensure that you have a hot streak, but you also insure you probably have a cold streak to balance it out.

Meanwhile, a faster paced but awful defense ensures you need to score a lot.

The smart way to play basketball is just like every other game. You don’t want to play at the same pace no matter what, you want to control the pace. If you go on a run and get up, slow it down and strangle other team

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

Yeah, I definitely get what you're saying. I guess my problem is I'm not sure the Bulls can ever "slow it down and strangle the other team" because they have so little half-court offense.

Zach can create offense, but he's too susceptible to turning the ball over or taking dumb shots. Vooch can make the occasional nice play but I'm not sure how much you want to involve him in your offense beyond what he already gets. Coby is probably their best half-court creator but even he isn't anywhere near DeMar's level or really any other star in the league.

I guess we're really just rearranging chairs on a sinking ship though. This team sucks. They're bottom 10 in both offensive and defensive rating. So far their record is much better than it should be thanks to a few fluky games. Ultimately, I don't care how they play as long as they finish with a terrible record.

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tyger1147's avatar

eh, sorta? Bulls are 9th in 3FG% so shooting more is generally preferable. But there's lots of context, as you point out, that if you're worse, playing faster just makes it more likely that you lose.

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tyger1147's avatar

I "learned" my basketball-related pace thing back when Todd Lickliter was in charge of the Iowa Hawkeyes. There was a GREAT rundown on why Roy Williams at UNC played fast and why Lickliter at Butler and then Iowa played slow.

Roy Williams reasoned that the Tarheels were going to be the better team most nights, so the more possessions they got in, the more likely they'd win (to add onto that they also usually had the better depth in talent so getting tired just helped that).

On the other hand, Lickliter knew, especially against the old high-major conference teams that Butler would be the lesser team. If they could keep it close, then a few lucky bounces could swing the game in their favor (it's the same reason Iowa football under Ferentz can be insufferable to watch against Div I-AA teams but could then pull off upsets against Ohio State or Penn State). Lickliter knew he had the talent to win Butler's league most seasons and this way was how he could maximize winning.

The problem was that kids don't want to play slow and fans don't want to watch slow basketball. If you can't get the talent in to compete, it doesn't matter.

But in the NBA, where the talent is theoretically, not as drastic, pace just doesn't matter in that context. You have Cleveland, New York, and Boston has some of the slower teams but also some with the highest Net Ratings. Whereas, you have Memphis, Golden State, and Oklahoma City as some of the fastest also among the highest NRtgs. (interesting - or not - East vs. West divide there)

Anyway, not contradicting or anything, just adding some thoughts in agreeance with you.

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

The Vuc public perception is shifting. He's re-entered The Ringer top 100 (at #94) and HoopsRumors editorialized that Vuc has a "team friendly contract"

does this matter in opposing GM perception? likely no. Maybe if that contract was even "friendlier" and expired after this season.

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Nov 20
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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

right, if Vuc and LaVine are doing such a good job with their 'narrative', why isn't there more scrutiny on the guy doing the dealing? It's just 'the market'

I think the Lakers - since they're dumb - would take Vuc. But likely only if they think Jarred Vanderbilt is done for, as he has an extra year on his deal beyond Vuc's

would Bulls take a pu pu platter with Vanderbilt and some low expirings? Even though it'd take $10M off their books next season and further the 'youth movement', I don't think that rises to the level of return AK needs to give up on his other goal which is making his original Vuc trade look good 3 years too late

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Nov 20Edited
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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

Jalen Hood-Schifino is young with experience!

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TheMoon's avatar

Which is funny because when AK arrived, weren't drafting and development supposed to be his main strengths? Apparently he disagreed. So what was he even doing back in Denver?

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

The NBA should really think about allowing team options on contracts. Oh wait, that's already a thing? Has someone told AK this?

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

This is legitimately hilarious! I am no Vooch fan, but props to him for this.

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Nov 21Edited
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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

Dammit, Granvillator. I read that article right before going to bed last night and spent my entire shower this morning coming up with a response to it and you beat me to it.

Totally agree though. I'm glad to see writers calling out Giddey for being bad, but moving him to PF doesn't fix the issue. As you said, having him play point guard at least allows him to do the one thing he's fairly good at. It also usually means the other team's worst guard/wing defender is guarding him which gives him a mismatch. Not saying he takes advantage of those mismatches particularly well, but I'd rather see him trying to score on a 6'4" guard than a 6'9" power forward who's both stronger and more athletic than he is.

Also, his rebounding mostly comes from the fact that he's usually guarding someone out on the perimeter and then he runs into the paint as soon as a shot goes up and grabs the rebound while the bigs box out. Whenever his man actually goes for an offensive rebound, his man almost always gets it over him because he never puts his body into them and it ends up turning into a jumping contest. Giddey having to rebound against other power forwards would be a nightmare.

Lastly, Giddey isn't good at what power forwards need to be good at. Most teams, especially the Bulls, need a power forward who can space the floor and play good defense. Giddey is terrible at both of those things.

There are disadvantages with playing Giddey at point guard, but at least there are a couple advantages. I struggle to see any advantages of playing Giddey at power forward.

Ultimately though, this brings us to the hard truth that Giddey is not a starting-level NBA player. His lack of scoring ability, horrible athleticism, and general lack of desire to play defense means he's a very limited player. A very limited player AK is likely going to pay a large chunk of money to this coming offseason. What's worse than the money is that Giddey will become a building block for this team for the next several years, which will severely limit their potential to grow into something even remotely decent.

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Nov 21
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SweetBeezus's avatar

Apologies if I'm answering a rhetorical question here, but... move him to the bench! If they trade Zach, maybe he gets another shot at starting tank commander. Otherwise see how he fits leading the 2nd unit, and assuming he embraces the role and looks at least ok, any offer they make after the season should be for backup money (somewhere in the $8-12m range?). Somewhat echoing your point, if he's the type of person who can't apply what he learned from his first benching experience and whose confidence would be shattered with a second, then he's not long for the league anyway.

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Trigga T's avatar

I didn't post that to say i agree with the overall idea to move him to PF. He would suck there as well, he would suck defensively at any position. My point is that the Bulls need to stop deluding themselves that he is a potential lead guard of the future. We're not even at the halfway mark and all the reasons why OKC dropped him are already on full display. That's my takeaway, he is a shitty guard. His shot is already in free fall after the fool's gold quick start. He might be one of the top 20 worst defenders in the league and his lack of credible shot nullifies his above average passing. At best he is a change of pace bench player

The Bulls should try and pawn him off on another team so they aren't tempted to give him the obligatory contract for 20 mill per that they are going to give him to save face for that trade.

He is just another example of how the league got fooled into believing in mediocre players as legit high level prospects because they are tall guards(MCW, Dante Exum, Mudiay)

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

One of the first comments I read from that article:

"'a trade that remains much maligned due to how lopsided it was for the Thunder.' The Bulls got a young starter and OKC got an aging backup...seems lopsided against OKC IMO."

It's not even 8 in the morning yet, but I think that's enough internet for me for the day...

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Dalibor Bagaric post up's avatar

Jesus, look at his release in the picture in that story. Tells you all you need to know. Giddey might have a better jump shot if you cut his left arm off. It's amazing he's breaking 30% from 3, considering he's just throwing the ball at the rim rather than shooting it.

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TheArtistFormerlyKnownAsJB's avatar

Almost 30 minutes for Craig last night and 6 minutes for Buzelis.

I get that Craig had a pretty good game, but come on. What are we even doing here?

I know Donovan is trying to win every game, but how about an ounce of self-awareness? We’re not talking about the 25th overall pick on a contending team. This is a lottery pick on a team that will struggle to make the play-in tournament. Give him some consistent minutes.

I promise you, Billy. You’re going to lose at least 50 games this season whether Buzelis plays 15 minutes per night or 5 minutes per night. So how about we try to develop the kid?

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

Billy was brought in as a win-now coach and I'm fairly certain he's holding onto whatever is left of that. Plus, I genuinely don't think AK is trying to lose this season either. They're probably both on the same page that this team is still "competing" even though they understand the team isn't particularly good. I would not be surprised at all if they're genuinely hoping to still make the play-in because of how bad the Eastern conference is this year.

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TheArtistFormerlyKnownAsJB's avatar

I know AK isn’t trying to lose, but he’s hopeless.

I’d like Billy to be the adult in the room and recognize that this team is the tenth seed at best regardless of Buzelis’ role, so he might as well develop him.

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

I think Billy is at the point in his career where he's happy playing the team politic game and cashing a few more fat checks before he retires to the Bahamas or something.

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CE's avatar

Another slow game v Bucks, 96.9 pace. I'd rather they keep playing fast, even if that does hurt execution or deficit or whatever, it's more interesting to be a fast bad team than a slow bad team.

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

The Bulls have a new (negative) plus/minus leader! Come on down, Ayo Dosunmu! With a -119 on the season, that puts him at eighth worst in the league. He is now beating Josh Giddey by -6 points.

Not that this means much, other than Ayo has had a really tough start to the season and that both Giddey and his replacement have been especially bad so far this year.

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