LaVine can make scoring look really easy, can't he? If he keeps up 25 ppg on 55% shooting, the Bulls may not have to attach draft capital to dump his contract. If that happens, I'm calling this season a win. The whole thing a win. Even if that means they win 35 games as opposed to 27. Because, barring an injury to him, that's ultimately what I think we're going to start arguing about here as the season progresses.
Is he a guy that can take your from mid-tier to playoff contender? No. The science is settled on that. Can he add a basket full of regular season wins that break the tank? Eh, maybe he can. Maybe he can!
I am extremely far from worried about that yet. Zach will ultimately be Zach, and that player has never added wins to a team
I think the science is settled on THAT, and unsettled whether he can improve a playoff team. And there's no way playing for this Bulls team would comfortably inform playoff teams that he can, it'll just be a leap of faith/desperation. Which may take until, ugh, January?
I think you're right, that'll take a desperate team. But just bear with me here, and imagine he keeps up 2020-2021 EFFICIENCY GOD numbers for 50 games this season, is that false promise strong enough for someone looking for a "talent swing" at the deadline? I'll be happy if asking that question doesn't sound as stupid in two months from now as it did two months ago.
This all will probably be moot in the next few weeks as shots start to clang as rhythmically as a Lutheran bell choir (Vooch is shooting 52% on 5 attempts--lol). But right now, the Bulls are averaging 108 possessions/game and hoisting shit at an incredible rate. I don't think that's a winning play for this specific team, long term. But if it works as a method to extract anything more than negative value out of LaVine's contract, I'll be tickled.
fucking sucks that they didn't get this done before the season, now roster sizes are capped making trades harder.
Basically have to wait until mid December (when newly-signed players are eligible to be traded) AND for other teams to get desperate. I don't think Zach (especially with these teammates) will be good for long enough. But that's probably ok, as long as he doesn't get hurt a competent GM* should be able to trade him without attaching assets. Or like you suggest, other GMs aren't that smart either and will look at these pace-inflated counting stats as 'da new Zach'
1) Experience teaches us AK likes to make bad trades.
2) Common sense suggests teams propose bad trades all the time, trying to exploit their dumber or more desperate colleagues.
3) Per 1) if a team proposed a bad Zach trade then AK would accept it.
4) Per 2), if there is an interest in proposing bad Zach trades, they would have been proposed, since as you note trades are harder now than preseason.
5) Per 3) and 4) if AK has not accepted a bad Zach trade, it is because there is none available.
6) But, dumb as AK is, there is no reason to think he would not accept a better than bad trade.
7) So, per 5) and 6), only worse than bad Zach trades-- like really bad-- are currently on the table.
If Zach continues to play like he could be a solid 3rd on a contender, I really think the Lakers or Nuggets would be able to use his talents to their advantage. Maybe something like MPJ (whom the Bulls previously coveted prior to him being drafted by Denver) and Zeke Nnaji for Zach? AK having previous ties to Denver might come in handy for something for once in a season.
Vuc/MPJ could be like a super cheap knockoff version of Jokic/MPJ!
There's two Lakers trades that work, neither of which that I could really see the Lakers considering:
1. AD for Zach straight up (makes both teams a 1st apron hard capped team)
2. D-Lo, Rui, Jarred Vanderbilt for Zach (makes the Lakers a 1st apron team and makes the Bulls a 1st apron hard capped team)
Max Christie is the guy I could see them moving as opposed to Rui or D-Lo, but he's trade restricted until Mid December since he signed his new contract this offseason.
I think Denver makes a lot of sense, but not sure if Denver can pull this off given their cap situation. But they need scoring badly, Jamal looks like he's on a serious decline, and Russ has been a disaster. Zach would really upgrade that team on offense.
ok I had to research this because it does make a lot of sense. Denver is currently over the first apron but $7M under the second apron.
So they have to take back 100% or less salary in any trade. Good news! MPJ + Nnaji is $1.7M more than Zach. (ugh I don't know how Zach's trade kicker factors in)
if we want AK to suffer professional anguish and consequences, "root" for enough wins to lose the pick but also losing as many home games as possible to make lil' dorf sad and confused
Considering the fact that AK only has this job because Pax fired himself, I’m not sure anything would result in professional consequences.
The only hope might be if this team is bad for another couple of years, Billy might just get sick of it and walk down to AK’s office and say “Hey, I think I’d like your job and you can be promoted to special advisor” and AK says ok, because Billy seems to have a lot of power in this organization.
Man this just made me laugh. Not at you specifically, but just how crazy dumb this organization was/is to really think that trading Demar and Alex away was enough to make them bad enough to tank. Still early, but beating potential playoff teams like the Grizzlies and Bucks (who actually may not be as good as folks thought in preseason) isn't what they're supposed to be trying to do. They look like Jontay Porter when he bet on his under on 3s and accidentally hit one....
YES. That IS even dumber. They NEED to be bad in order to get BETTER.
I've never understood the silly premise that Jerry Reinsdorf believes that a middling/mediocre team is the best way to make money. The 6 Title Bulls are STILL making him money. But somehow he thinks basketball purgatory and yes men execs is really the bread and butter? Making it to the Conference Finals and winning means revenue from conference finals games and merch. Winning the finals adds on to that. It's why the Warriors are the most valuable franchise in the league now, all that winning from 2015-2022 brought in A TON of revenue. Same for the Celtics run from 2017-2024. But leave it up to ol' Jer-Bear to think he's the smartest guy in the room, making the most money, with his piss poorly built "we're tanking" roster.
Intelligence is kind of downside protection? Lonzo is only in his mid 20s. But he's so smart that even though his body is creaky, he can still do the mid 30s vet routine where yeah, the body is toast, but he can still change the game through pure know-how. Just thinking about this relative to the draft, as I've been trying to clarify for myself how to think about risk.
The offense still remains a work in progress. I thought it was a lot of open shot making (teams are willing to give up threes to anyone but Lavine or White), and other than that a lot of bad direction-less offense. The one SLOB Wizard sighting at least was nice to see.
I don't think it's too early to say that the Bulls are clearly play-off bound.
They are undefeated against fellow Eastern Conference teams and their only losses are to Western Conference Play-off bound teams, including the best team in the West.
The Bulls are currently in 5th, but most likely they'll end up with home-court advantage. They'll move up once other teams start trading, because in season trades upset the delicate balance in a team and leave most teams worse off. AKME is a master of avoiding those pitfalls, so we'll ride this line-up all the way into a deep play-off run.
It's really kind of a perfect scenario, with it happening this early in the season.
It's just a minor sprain and upper body, not a recurrence of his knee injury. It means that Billy will give the younger guys some more time, without upsetting that all important team chemistry.
Really, this improves the outlook for the season. A top 2 seed might be in the cards, if we keep having good luck like that.
Lonzo Ball says his right wrist sprain occurred after catching himself awkwardly on a fall in Q1 of the Memphis game. Noticed it felt weird in game, but adrenaline carried him.
Grade 2 sprain that they’re trying to prevent from worsening to Grade 3, which would require surgery.
Counterpoint is that the Bulls are playing a 106.5 pace for the season, which would be the fastest ever. The Bulls are making teams move on defense with their passing. Are teams getting tired?
The Bulls don't foul, last in the league (traffic cone defense). Less breaks in play. I'm going with teams are getting tired.
The Bulls might be getting tired too, 106 Pace is crazy, but Billy isn't playing anybody 40 minutes either.
LaVine can make scoring look really easy, can't he? If he keeps up 25 ppg on 55% shooting, the Bulls may not have to attach draft capital to dump his contract. If that happens, I'm calling this season a win. The whole thing a win. Even if that means they win 35 games as opposed to 27. Because, barring an injury to him, that's ultimately what I think we're going to start arguing about here as the season progresses.
Is he a guy that can take your from mid-tier to playoff contender? No. The science is settled on that. Can he add a basket full of regular season wins that break the tank? Eh, maybe he can. Maybe he can!
I am extremely far from worried about that yet. Zach will ultimately be Zach, and that player has never added wins to a team
I think the science is settled on THAT, and unsettled whether he can improve a playoff team. And there's no way playing for this Bulls team would comfortably inform playoff teams that he can, it'll just be a leap of faith/desperation. Which may take until, ugh, January?
I think you're right, that'll take a desperate team. But just bear with me here, and imagine he keeps up 2020-2021 EFFICIENCY GOD numbers for 50 games this season, is that false promise strong enough for someone looking for a "talent swing" at the deadline? I'll be happy if asking that question doesn't sound as stupid in two months from now as it did two months ago.
This all will probably be moot in the next few weeks as shots start to clang as rhythmically as a Lutheran bell choir (Vooch is shooting 52% on 5 attempts--lol). But right now, the Bulls are averaging 108 possessions/game and hoisting shit at an incredible rate. I don't think that's a winning play for this specific team, long term. But if it works as a method to extract anything more than negative value out of LaVine's contract, I'll be tickled.
fucking sucks that they didn't get this done before the season, now roster sizes are capped making trades harder.
Basically have to wait until mid December (when newly-signed players are eligible to be traded) AND for other teams to get desperate. I don't think Zach (especially with these teammates) will be good for long enough. But that's probably ok, as long as he doesn't get hurt a competent GM* should be able to trade him without attaching assets. Or like you suggest, other GMs aren't that smart either and will look at these pace-inflated counting stats as 'da new Zach'
*uh oh
Ok check out this argument:
1) Experience teaches us AK likes to make bad trades.
2) Common sense suggests teams propose bad trades all the time, trying to exploit their dumber or more desperate colleagues.
3) Per 1) if a team proposed a bad Zach trade then AK would accept it.
4) Per 2), if there is an interest in proposing bad Zach trades, they would have been proposed, since as you note trades are harder now than preseason.
5) Per 3) and 4) if AK has not accepted a bad Zach trade, it is because there is none available.
6) But, dumb as AK is, there is no reason to think he would not accept a better than bad trade.
7) So, per 5) and 6), only worse than bad Zach trades-- like really bad-- are currently on the table.
If Zach continues to play like he could be a solid 3rd on a contender, I really think the Lakers or Nuggets would be able to use his talents to their advantage. Maybe something like MPJ (whom the Bulls previously coveted prior to him being drafted by Denver) and Zeke Nnaji for Zach? AK having previous ties to Denver might come in handy for something for once in a season.
the guy promoted instead of AK in Denver, Calvin Booth, looks to be pretty bad at his job. So maybe there is a match.
Vuc/MPJ could be like a super cheap knockoff version of Jokic/MPJ!
There's two Lakers trades that work, neither of which that I could really see the Lakers considering:
1. AD for Zach straight up (makes both teams a 1st apron hard capped team)
2. D-Lo, Rui, Jarred Vanderbilt for Zach (makes the Lakers a 1st apron team and makes the Bulls a 1st apron hard capped team)
Max Christie is the guy I could see them moving as opposed to Rui or D-Lo, but he's trade restricted until Mid December since he signed his new contract this offseason.
I think Denver makes a lot of sense, but not sure if Denver can pull this off given their cap situation. But they need scoring badly, Jamal looks like he's on a serious decline, and Russ has been a disaster. Zach would really upgrade that team on offense.
ok I had to research this because it does make a lot of sense. Denver is currently over the first apron but $7M under the second apron.
So they have to take back 100% or less salary in any trade. Good news! MPJ + Nnaji is $1.7M more than Zach. (ugh I don't know how Zach's trade kicker factors in)
Lakers and Heat have the same restrictions btw
This seems like a no brainer....so I guess it won't happen?
they do need forwards especially if MPJ is out the door.
Torrey Craig will fix that, done.
Listen, guys… AK and Billy’s hands are tied. They’re men of the people!
The fans said “We want a play-in defeat. We want to hand our pick to the Spurs. We want Matas to play 6 minutes per game.”
They’re just giving the fans what they want!
This is our fault.
if we want AK to suffer professional anguish and consequences, "root" for enough wins to lose the pick but also losing as many home games as possible to make lil' dorf sad and confused
Considering the fact that AK only has this job because Pax fired himself, I’m not sure anything would result in professional consequences.
The only hope might be if this team is bad for another couple of years, Billy might just get sick of it and walk down to AK’s office and say “Hey, I think I’d like your job and you can be promoted to special advisor” and AK says ok, because Billy seems to have a lot of power in this organization.
Man this just made me laugh. Not at you specifically, but just how crazy dumb this organization was/is to really think that trading Demar and Alex away was enough to make them bad enough to tank. Still early, but beating potential playoff teams like the Grizzlies and Bucks (who actually may not be as good as folks thought in preseason) isn't what they're supposed to be trying to do. They look like Jontay Porter when he bet on his under on 3s and accidentally hit one....
they don't think that though, they don't want to be bad
is that even dumber?
YES. That IS even dumber. They NEED to be bad in order to get BETTER.
I've never understood the silly premise that Jerry Reinsdorf believes that a middling/mediocre team is the best way to make money. The 6 Title Bulls are STILL making him money. But somehow he thinks basketball purgatory and yes men execs is really the bread and butter? Making it to the Conference Finals and winning means revenue from conference finals games and merch. Winning the finals adds on to that. It's why the Warriors are the most valuable franchise in the league now, all that winning from 2015-2022 brought in A TON of revenue. Same for the Celtics run from 2017-2024. But leave it up to ol' Jer-Bear to think he's the smartest guy in the room, making the most money, with his piss poorly built "we're tanking" roster.
Jerry is an ardent believe in Worthington's Law: someone who has more money than you is better than you, and therefore above reproach.
Our criticisms never reach Jerry's ears. He can't even conceive of caring what the stupid plebes think.
I just want home court advantage.
You'll always have home court advantage right here my guy... (points to heart)
Intelligence is kind of downside protection? Lonzo is only in his mid 20s. But he's so smart that even though his body is creaky, he can still do the mid 30s vet routine where yeah, the body is toast, but he can still change the game through pure know-how. Just thinking about this relative to the draft, as I've been trying to clarify for myself how to think about risk.
The offense still remains a work in progress. I thought it was a lot of open shot making (teams are willing to give up threes to anyone but Lavine or White), and other than that a lot of bad direction-less offense. The one SLOB Wizard sighting at least was nice to see.
Yes there are gaudy 3 point attempt numbers but through 4 games the offense is 26th in the league
I don't think it's too early to say that the Bulls are clearly play-off bound.
They are undefeated against fellow Eastern Conference teams and their only losses are to Western Conference Play-off bound teams, including the best team in the West.
The Bulls are currently in 5th, but most likely they'll end up with home-court advantage. They'll move up once other teams start trading, because in season trades upset the delicate balance in a team and leave most teams worse off. AKME is a master of avoiding those pitfalls, so we'll ride this line-up all the way into a deep play-off run.
There's no way this could possibly go wrong.
Check the timestamps: looks like you hurt Lonzo
It's really kind of a perfect scenario, with it happening this early in the season.
It's just a minor sprain and upper body, not a recurrence of his knee injury. It means that Billy will give the younger guys some more time, without upsetting that all important team chemistry.
Really, this improves the outlook for the season. A top 2 seed might be in the cards, if we keep having good luck like that.
Dang, mark down a new 'when Lonzo got hurt' memorial day https://www.nba.com/bulls/news/lonzo-ball-update-2
(it's not the knee, but still. Out at least ten days)
Three years from now: Lonzo Ball is the first NBA player to ever successfully come back from an arm transplant!
Bulls have a 97.3 ORTG when Lonzo has been off the court this year
1 - 0 in games he doesn't play, we're good.
Wasn't at home though 😬
Well...you weren't wrong.
In a win like that, we're all wrong.
yeah see ya next year I guess
@byjuliapoe
Lonzo Ball says his right wrist sprain occurred after catching himself awkwardly on a fall in Q1 of the Memphis game. Noticed it felt weird in game, but adrenaline carried him.
Grade 2 sprain that they’re trying to prevent from worsening to Grade 3, which would require surgery.
Open thread is UP for Bulls-Magic: https://open.substack.com/chat/posts/a39e0197-25ec-4935-be62-1b8c66263eae
Per the Cash Considerations podcast, Bulls' opponents are shooting 22.5% from three in the second half against the Bulls. That seems sustainable.
Their superior athleticism is wearing teams out, they just don't have the guts to run with these young, reckless Bulls.
Counterpoint is that the Bulls are playing a 106.5 pace for the season, which would be the fastest ever. The Bulls are making teams move on defense with their passing. Are teams getting tired?
The Bulls don't foul, last in the league (traffic cone defense). Less breaks in play. I'm going with teams are getting tired.
The Bulls might be getting tired too, 106 Pace is crazy, but Billy isn't playing anybody 40 minutes either.
Bulls are also 2nd to last in opponent fouling. So the breaks in play aren't occurring.
The 76ers games have 56 fouls per game, Bulls games have 32.
I do think their pace may play a part in it, but I'm not sure it's so much of a part that teams are shooting that terribly.
Magic recap up! https://www.blogabull.com/p/bad-team-wins-close-game-is-this