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granvillator's avatar

Some interesting shooting stats through 6 games for Giddey:

1. He's taking 3 pointers as a % of his FGAs at exactly the same rate as last year (.287 to .288 of FGA). His shot selection by distance compared to last year is nearly identical across the board.

2. His FG% from 3 has exploded.

3. His FG% from nearly everywhere else has collapsed and is actually horrible (.500 at the rim, .364 from 3-10 feet).

4. His free throw rate is through the roof (.146 to .342).

5. His FT% has likewise collapsed.

People are free to assign faith or cynicism to any of these things. My view is that nearly all of this is fluke, both good and bad.

Having watched every game, I would say that distance isn't the issue with Giddey (as it was, say, with DeMar to some degree). It's that his form is both unusual and, from watching over 6 games, erratic. Having gotten to the NBA I can't say I'm surprised he won't change it. But there's kind of a reason why 99% of people shoot jump shots the same way. His most reliable shot is not a mid-range jumper or drive but the 5 foot floater — a shot that does not rely on his bizarre shooting form and which he shoots like everyone else.

I think we're seeing something similar from the FT line (.560 vs .740 career, on more than 2.5x as many attempts), where his form is just as eccentric.

"Improvement" isn't a matter of increasing his touch from 5 feet further away, I think. It's a matter of, if not straightening out his form, then at least drilling until he's shooting with the same form all the time rather than his arms sometimes popping out and sometimes not.

For this reason I think Giddey is more of a project than anyone else in the starting line-up and "improvement" is not going to be a line gracefully sloping upward.

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Dogfishhead's avatar

It says a lot about collective expectations that a 3-2 start is so jarring. I would like to be wrong about the long-term prospects of this team and would be happily wrong if I thought the individual defensive parts of this team did not amount to a mesh sieve.

But, as it stands the Bulls are currently 7th in defensive rating and, as the article cites, opponents are shooting 29% from 3 against them. If you think that's a consequence of pace (e.g. other teams' legs are weak, and our legs are Forrest Gump legs metaphorically breaking through material limitations), well, that's certainly a take. And it sounds like something Jim Boylen might mutter to himself in a spiritual trance after too much blended whiskey and shrimp cocktail that someone else paid for.

But, also: fuck it: "We don't run, we're done." - Billy D.

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