Bulls draft Matas Buzelis, which indicates...that they drafted Matas Buzelis

selection looks like a nice play by the Bulls, for once! Doesn't mean they're thinking ahead

This year’s first round of the NBA draft always was projected as unpredictable, due to the lack of truly top-end talent and then lack of consensus of even who’d lead that next tier of prospects. There wasn’t even the shred of plausibility if any team in the lottery gave the traditional “we were surprised, yet thrilled, he fell to us”, because really anybody could fall in this draft.

That said, we have such low expectations of how the Bulls front office operates that it was a genuine concern that they’d target a specific prospect, or at least a player type (usually replacing someone departing the rotation). There were rumors they were considering paying to move up, and/or draft an older more ready-made prospect.

But instead, Matas Buzelis, he of extremely young age (he’ll turn 20 in training camp) and undeveloped skills, was still on the board at number 11. And the Bulls, in a pleasant surprise, didn’t overthink things¹ and just took the faller.

Again, this was an especially difficult-to-peg first round, but it does look nearly unanimous that Buzelis was projected to go higher. NBA dot com consensus mock had him at #6. In a needs-agnostic big board ranking, The Ringer had him at #4, Jonathan Givony at ESPN at #5, and The Athletic a rare outlier which had him at #12.

For some Bulls fans who take up the role of draft analysts, it caught my eye that The Swish Theory had Buzelis at 8 and Larry Golden had him #1 overall. Our own old pal Ricky O’Donnell at SBNation had him #1 in his board before this past season, though down to #6 this week. His first mention was something that this selection could indicate is the same-old Bulls: a prospect who can’t shoot.

I'm fine with Buzelis, but he has to shoot it better than he did with Ignite:

- 26.1% from three on 115 attempts
- 69.6% from the free throw line

Everything else falls into place if the jumper is falling.

John Hollinger at the Athletic mentioned shooting as well, though favorably:

Don’t worry about those 3-point percentages last year — his shot is much better than that, trust me.

But then that was refuted at Swish Theory:

“Matas will shoot better than his G League percentages” has basically been taken as gospel at this point.

As to other projections of his game, I found this interesting from Sam Vecenie:

The first swing area [to success or failure] is the frame, which has a long way to go before it fills out. I don’t think he’ll end up playing many NBA minutes next season because of that. He has a lot of long-term upside to fill a much-needed player archetype if he fills out, but front offices are mixed on whether that will happen. Nobody doubts Buzelis’ work ethic, though; he’s a competitor who demonstrates a desire to be great.

Here’s a big-ol’ draft breakdown video:

So does this mean a rebuild?

If indeed Buzelis is this under-developed and not looking like an immediate contributor, then does that indicate the Bulls are changing direction?

KC Johnson came out with this theory suspiciously quickly after the selection, not merely pointing out that Buzelis is young but that the Bulls may be tanking towards the 2025 draft. It was a really bizarre piece of writing, where it was laudatory towards the Bulls having a plan even though there hasn’t been any stated plan and not even a “source” saying there was one.

There’s the idea that surely KC wouldn’t just make this up without some indication from the front office, but upon further reflection I’m more skeptical. I think he’s further from the pulse with this non-GarPax regime, and has already numerous times inferred things from Bulls words and actions and ascribed logic when there was none to be had.

At the even-more-bizarre² AK presser after the first round concluded, KC asked the question he had already answered in his column, further indicating it was indeed little more than a guess.

And the words from AK were essentially saying that there’s nothing about the direction of the team that can be gleaned from this single draft selection. AK mentioned scouting and really liking Buzelis, but it was unplanned that he was available.

Whereas his team’s direction all depends on free agency, and “everything’s on the table”. It was somewhat tellingly-interesting that AK listed a DeMar DeRozan extension as simply one of those “things on the table”, but he was noncommittal to everything: Lonzo may make training camp, Patrick Williams may not…these are all future-AK problems not to be worried about right now.

He added³ that the trade obligation to the Spurs for the 2025 draft (top ten) is not influencing the team’s direction. This is notable because while it could be a lie, AK did mention free agency definitely influencing that huge holistic decision.

I take all this - and I should emphasize it’s not just this press conference but all the prior ones and their actions the past 3 seasons - to mean they certainly still want to NOT take a step back (let alone tank), but may be forced to based on DeRozan’s market. Which isn’t a great mindset to have, but better than feeling a desperation to re-sign DeRozan at all costs.

And there were more indications of this attitude in AK’s analysis of the Josh Giddey acquisition last week. Giddey is very young, but in a completely predictable moment praised ‘triple-doubles’⁴ and distinguished Giddey’s productivity as a reason he was sought-after instead of draft picks.

When asked why he couldn’t get draft picks in addition to Giddey from the team with all the draft picks⁵, it was a literal shrug:

So no, I will not participate in this projection-as-interpretation thinking things will be much different. I feel it was a good draft night, but perhaps only a benefit of circumstances outside of their planning/control.

I will, as instructed, wait a couple weeks and see if free agency goes that way as well.

1. rumored promise-recipient Devin Carter went two picks later to Sacramento. Do Bulls promises mean nothing anymore?!?! Or maybe he’s coming back soon in a LaVine trade (half-joking).

2. There’s no other kind! Read from a script again, carrying over that improvement (?) from the postseason presser.

3. shout out to chuggo’s Will Gottlieb with the good question!

4. did NOT add “machine”, so the Giddey-Vuc corollary ended there

5. Oklahoma City traded FIVE second rounders on draft night, to the Knicks for the #26 selection