I think they actually have decent depth (which would help in a consolidation trade). Playing .500 without a strong top of the roster star kind of shows it. Losing to these sh*tty teams is due to the 'depth' doing things -- especially, taking shots -- they aren't built to do. I'd say some of that falls to Billy allowing it, but the roster doesn't have enough quality shot-making to not have to rely on an over-proportion of simply bad shots: Vuc blind tosses at the rim; anything Okoro shoots; Matas wild flings (he needs to watch Cooper Flagg work to his spots); PW robot-moves; on and on. Coby's return will help some. Adding at least one more quality scorer + Billy taking away shots that by profile will be no more than 20%-makes will help. And that's not even taking into account what subtracting Vuc's abysmal no-defense would do.
yes I still think they have good depth in their top 8
but they fashioned themselves as having good 9-15 depth that could fill in the top 8, and nope.
It especially sucks because they likely won't pull the trigger on trading one of their quality role players because they know the drop-off is too huge for their precious competitiveness. They are .500 but not 'playing .500', especially after the injuries
I don't think it's the kind of depth that they could make a consolidation trade with. Nobody is trading their star for role players. Unless you're talking consolidating with Coby and Giddey included
Salary matching plus ALL the draft picks would be the play. Also Noah because he's useless for several years, but had a nice G League debut that has trade value.
You add a primary scorer alongside Coby's scoring and Giddey's playmaking and everyone else becomes VERY secondary. And even then, Ayo, Matas and Huerter are competent offensive players. EVERYONE else has a very tight shot profile plus exiting Vuc.
To me that's a path to being pretty decent, depending on who you can bring in, especially with the tightened cap penalty rules limiting three-star teams.
I do agree that they have good complementary players, but was pushing back on the idea that they could be used in a consolidation trade. Their expiring salaries are valuable but that's irrespective of how good they are.
though maybe - this would stretch creativity beyond what AKME is capable of - they can involve other teams, get assets for their good role players and consolidate all that in a trade and still have good role players left over
On the Patrick Williams front, he just shot 33% in November and had just 3 games in which he shot better than 37.5%. 6 games were under 30%. He's somehow shooting worse from 2 this season than last season (38.5%!!!). I know there are some awful teams with total bums playing real minutes, but Pat might be the worst rotation player in the NBA right now, at least on teams theoretically trying to win.
I do these roster snapshots for every team and Pat would be indistinguishable with any 6'8" 24 year old 15th man or 2-way spot if you took away his draft pedigree and contract. Except maybe if he came in with that status he wouldn't even try to dribble once per game anymore
For me, it all comes back to the draft. There is no fix for a GM/President who can’t draft.
Even the super teams that were assembled via free agency or trades (2008 Celtics, 2010 Heat, and 2016 Warriors) were built around players who were drafted by the franchise.
If you can’t draft, you’re not going to make it. AK chose Patrick Williams over Tyrese Haliburton, Daley Terry over Walker Kessler, Noa Essengue over a chance at a top 3 pick from the Pelicans (granted, Noa could still become something).
I’m a big fan of Matas, but even he is looking like he might just end up being a good role player. As of right now, Ayo is his pick who has produced the most and he’s basically a sixth man.
So if your draft record is a bunch of duds and a couple of role players, and your strategy centers around paying all-star replacement level guys, why should you remain employed?
They may actually not even make the play-in this time (do we really think they'll finish ahead of the 76ers, Celtics and Bucks?). So might get a high draft pick in a decent draft. They could still pick the wrong guy.
Pat Williams is getting worse. It’s inexplicable. He doesn’t seem to care. I think the worst part is that now he’s completely untradeable. He can’t even be a throw in. I swear to god he may get bought out and be out of the league this summer.
The rotations have been screwey last 5 or so games. The roster imbalance is really highlighted when you have injuries to big guys. The Bulls can’t afford 2 of the 3 of Collins, Vuc, Smith to be out. The Bulls habit of picking undersized and under skilled power forwards (Essengue, Phillips, Williams, Buz (?)) is starting to catch up. At least some of these guys need to be playing (not Williams) and getting minutes at the 3.
Also rebounding is a skill. AKME and BD really need to understand that. Yelling box out and stocking the team with guards won’t work.
of note: Coby White is out tonight because of a strain in his OTHER calf:
>"Donovan says Coby White told him today that the tightness in his left calf "doesn’t feel like the other one did,” referring to the strain which obviously kept him out from August up until a couple weeks ago. Says Bulls are operating with an “over abundance of caution.”"
As I was writing that sentence, Pat just boxed out for a tough rebound (a rare but encouraging moment) and then proceeded to step out of bounds after catching a pass on the next possession. And then after I finished that next sentence, he air balled a three on an incredible pass by Giddey.
So I've decided, I just cannot tolerate Pat anymore (he just got stuffed at the rim on another Giddey dime as I wrote that...). Also, the fun early season Bulls are no longer that fun, and there's no reason to think this current roster is going to evolve into a contender (especially if we keep drafting around the 12-15 spot every year).
So I say, if we can find a way to get AD that also allows us to dump Pat in the deal, I'm in. No matter how stupid it is to get a constantly injured AD, and how much I'm aware that AKME will give up far too much in a trade. Emotionally my fandom needs this, even if my rational side would push back. C'mon, AKME... Just throw caution to the wind and go for it. (But don't forget to dump Pat, that's important!)
All good points. Attendance remains very high even while playing badly against bad teams. If this recent slump starts to hit those numbers I could see that being a motivating factor. December 15 could be interesting, when lots of newly signed free agents become eligible to be traded (including Tre Jones, who has probably increased his value with his play this year and on a team-friendly deal).
- this was a recipe for an improbable win because the Magic were playing terribly. Against a Bulls defense that is horrid at forcing turnovers, Orlando had a TO% of 16.8%. And shot 9/33 from three.
- but the Bulls TO% was 19.6%. Giddey had eight TOs himself, spoiling what was an otherwise good offensive game. Pat had 2 turnovers (really bad for 18 minutes and low usage) including fucking stepping out of bounds again.
- of the turds I highlighted in this post, Julian Phillips was actually alright. Had several dunks, anyway. Went 1/4 from three and is just too light to play in the frontcourt.
- I thought Buzelis was really good, his best game in a while, but he also kind of played them out of the game in the 4th quarter. That would typically be fine, even 'good', but the Bulls are not realistic in their expectations
- Kevin Huerter left with an adductor injury 6 minutes into the game. Tre Jones had a bad ankle sprain and couldn't finish the game. yikes.
- Offensive Rebound percentage for the Magic in 1st half: 21.7%. 2nd half: 40% 4th quarter: 60%.
I don't know what the Bulls can do to save this season by having a competent defense. I think the effort was mostly there in this game but it's tough to sustain when you're undersized and running so much. And there's no "try harder" switch with Vuc, he cannot jump or move. I don't think that's an effort thing, but it has to wear on others to hear Vuc try to motivate to do something he literally cannot.
Suggs and Bane are tanks. Their whole team's physicality killed us last night. We need to be stronger. Pat and Vuc are big men but they don't play like it.
And what the hell was that free throw putback by Bitudze? Olbrich had him boxed out but Bitudze just pushed him under the basket and grabbed the ball. Is that legal? If so I'd think we would see it more.
Lots of guys are like that (really good but not great because of some key weakness). The key is to recognize them as what they are (borderline all stars) and not to overpay them.
He’s a better defender than LaVine, but regardless of what some numbers say, I’m going to need him to not get torched during the biggest games of the year to buy that he’s actually a league average defender.
Zach is also an otherworldly efficient scorer. Like one of the best in the NBA. Giddey is an okay scorer and fairly good passer (that is somewhat held back by his turnover rate).
So yes, Giddey is a better defender than Zach, but not as effective on offense.
Like was said previously, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison, but there are some similarities in their limitations.
Billy gets a pass, rightly or wrongly, and 'rotations' is the laziest kind of coach criticism, but if he ever does get a fully healthy squad he should actually coach and tighten things up more. They cannot play to "their style" with these issues in defensive rebounding and generating turnovers. So adjust. If you lose games then because you're not getting enough easy offense, well you were losing before so who cares.
Giddey / White / Ayo / Buzelis / Vuc
bench: Jones, Collins, Smith, light sprinkling of Okoro
that's it. No more Patrick Williams. No more going 12 deep in the first quarter anymore. Play Giddey a ton of minutes to test if he fatigues, instead of preemptively saving him.
and then ultimately job of the front office is to trade Vuc. If he cannot even defensive rebound as well anymore, the whole thing falls apart
Yeah, I dunno how you trade Vuc. If anybody wanted him he would be gone already.
It looks to me like Giddey is good, and Buzelis is on his way to being good. White is our best scorer but our worst defender, so I don't know what I think of him.
Our other guys all look like subs right now. I keep hoping that one or 2 will step up but it hasn't happened yet.
The reason they gave Pat a big contract is because drafting him was the first big roster addition of the AK era.
It’s well documented that AK isn’t good at his job, but it’s not talked about enough that he’s also an egomaniac. He will stick with players way too long because he thinks it’s not possible for his decisions to be wrong and anyone who pushes back will be shown the door (Peter Patton).
News just broke this afternoon that Essengue's shoulder injury suffered in the GLeague is going to require season-ending surgery. A truly terrible development, confirming in pen what I put in pencil in writing off his rookie season (and that being a really bad sign).
This has to be the worst seven game stretch the Bulls have had this century. Just awful basketball. They’re even failing at AKME’s nebulous goal of building while competing.
I think they actually have decent depth (which would help in a consolidation trade). Playing .500 without a strong top of the roster star kind of shows it. Losing to these sh*tty teams is due to the 'depth' doing things -- especially, taking shots -- they aren't built to do. I'd say some of that falls to Billy allowing it, but the roster doesn't have enough quality shot-making to not have to rely on an over-proportion of simply bad shots: Vuc blind tosses at the rim; anything Okoro shoots; Matas wild flings (he needs to watch Cooper Flagg work to his spots); PW robot-moves; on and on. Coby's return will help some. Adding at least one more quality scorer + Billy taking away shots that by profile will be no more than 20%-makes will help. And that's not even taking into account what subtracting Vuc's abysmal no-defense would do.
yes I still think they have good depth in their top 8
but they fashioned themselves as having good 9-15 depth that could fill in the top 8, and nope.
It especially sucks because they likely won't pull the trigger on trading one of their quality role players because they know the drop-off is too huge for their precious competitiveness. They are .500 but not 'playing .500', especially after the injuries
I don't think it's the kind of depth that they could make a consolidation trade with. Nobody is trading their star for role players. Unless you're talking consolidating with Coby and Giddey included
Salary matching plus ALL the draft picks would be the play. Also Noah because he's useless for several years, but had a nice G League debut that has trade value.
You add a primary scorer alongside Coby's scoring and Giddey's playmaking and everyone else becomes VERY secondary. And even then, Ayo, Matas and Huerter are competent offensive players. EVERYONE else has a very tight shot profile plus exiting Vuc.
To me that's a path to being pretty decent, depending on who you can bring in, especially with the tightened cap penalty rules limiting three-star teams.
I do agree that they have good complementary players, but was pushing back on the idea that they could be used in a consolidation trade. Their expiring salaries are valuable but that's irrespective of how good they are.
though maybe - this would stretch creativity beyond what AKME is capable of - they can involve other teams, get assets for their good role players and consolidate all that in a trade and still have good role players left over
On the Patrick Williams front, he just shot 33% in November and had just 3 games in which he shot better than 37.5%. 6 games were under 30%. He's somehow shooting worse from 2 this season than last season (38.5%!!!). I know there are some awful teams with total bums playing real minutes, but Pat might be the worst rotation player in the NBA right now, at least on teams theoretically trying to win.
I do these roster snapshots for every team and Pat would be indistinguishable with any 6'8" 24 year old 15th man or 2-way spot if you took away his draft pedigree and contract. Except maybe if he came in with that status he wouldn't even try to dribble once per game anymore
For me, it all comes back to the draft. There is no fix for a GM/President who can’t draft.
Even the super teams that were assembled via free agency or trades (2008 Celtics, 2010 Heat, and 2016 Warriors) were built around players who were drafted by the franchise.
If you can’t draft, you’re not going to make it. AK chose Patrick Williams over Tyrese Haliburton, Daley Terry over Walker Kessler, Noa Essengue over a chance at a top 3 pick from the Pelicans (granted, Noa could still become something).
I’m a big fan of Matas, but even he is looking like he might just end up being a good role player. As of right now, Ayo is his pick who has produced the most and he’s basically a sixth man.
So if your draft record is a bunch of duds and a couple of role players, and your strategy centers around paying all-star replacement level guys, why should you remain employed?
there is a fix to a spotty draft record, and that's getting more chances with more draft picks. But they are incapable of that.
They may actually not even make the play-in this time (do we really think they'll finish ahead of the 76ers, Celtics and Bucks?). So might get a high draft pick in a decent draft. They could still pick the wrong guy.
Pat Williams is getting worse. It’s inexplicable. He doesn’t seem to care. I think the worst part is that now he’s completely untradeable. He can’t even be a throw in. I swear to god he may get bought out and be out of the league this summer.
The rotations have been screwey last 5 or so games. The roster imbalance is really highlighted when you have injuries to big guys. The Bulls can’t afford 2 of the 3 of Collins, Vuc, Smith to be out. The Bulls habit of picking undersized and under skilled power forwards (Essengue, Phillips, Williams, Buz (?)) is starting to catch up. At least some of these guys need to be playing (not Williams) and getting minutes at the 3.
Also rebounding is a skill. AKME and BD really need to understand that. Yelling box out and stocking the team with guards won’t work.
his long-as-fuck contract actually makes him easier to buy out.
the minimum cap hit after this season would be $7.71M/year for the next seven years
Sadly, there's no chance Jerry/Michael would approve AK to pay a guy nearly $8 million a year for the next seven years to not even be on the team.
Game Thread and roster preview for Bulls-Magic is UP: https://open.substack.com/chat/posts/b0f5d353-da5d-495e-a026-be6443007552
of note: Coby White is out tonight because of a strain in his OTHER calf:
>"Donovan says Coby White told him today that the tightness in his left calf "doesn’t feel like the other one did,” referring to the strain which obviously kept him out from August up until a couple weeks ago. Says Bulls are operating with an “over abundance of caution.”"
AD whispers being leaked by the Bulls FO again.
As I was writing that sentence, Pat just boxed out for a tough rebound (a rare but encouraging moment) and then proceeded to step out of bounds after catching a pass on the next possession. And then after I finished that next sentence, he air balled a three on an incredible pass by Giddey.
So I've decided, I just cannot tolerate Pat anymore (he just got stuffed at the rim on another Giddey dime as I wrote that...). Also, the fun early season Bulls are no longer that fun, and there's no reason to think this current roster is going to evolve into a contender (especially if we keep drafting around the 12-15 spot every year).
So I say, if we can find a way to get AD that also allows us to dump Pat in the deal, I'm in. No matter how stupid it is to get a constantly injured AD, and how much I'm aware that AKME will give up far too much in a trade. Emotionally my fandom needs this, even if my rational side would push back. C'mon, AKME... Just throw caution to the wind and go for it. (But don't forget to dump Pat, that's important!)
In a sense, AD is the perfect player for the Reinsdorfs.
A big name, from Chicago (tickets sales).
Often injured (insurance pays most of his salary, not them)
I'm almost surprised the trade hasn't happened already.
All good points. Attendance remains very high even while playing badly against bad teams. If this recent slump starts to hit those numbers I could see that being a motivating factor. December 15 could be interesting, when lots of newly signed free agents become eligible to be traded (including Tre Jones, who has probably increased his value with his play this year and on a team-friendly deal).
That Pat sequence you described was brutal. Those were some very bad plays. I was embarrassed for Pat to have had to watch them.
Bulls lose at Magic thoughts:
- this was a recipe for an improbable win because the Magic were playing terribly. Against a Bulls defense that is horrid at forcing turnovers, Orlando had a TO% of 16.8%. And shot 9/33 from three.
- but the Bulls TO% was 19.6%. Giddey had eight TOs himself, spoiling what was an otherwise good offensive game. Pat had 2 turnovers (really bad for 18 minutes and low usage) including fucking stepping out of bounds again.
- of the turds I highlighted in this post, Julian Phillips was actually alright. Had several dunks, anyway. Went 1/4 from three and is just too light to play in the frontcourt.
- I thought Buzelis was really good, his best game in a while, but he also kind of played them out of the game in the 4th quarter. That would typically be fine, even 'good', but the Bulls are not realistic in their expectations
- Kevin Huerter left with an adductor injury 6 minutes into the game. Tre Jones had a bad ankle sprain and couldn't finish the game. yikes.
- Offensive Rebound percentage for the Magic in 1st half: 21.7%. 2nd half: 40% 4th quarter: 60%.
I don't know what the Bulls can do to save this season by having a competent defense. I think the effort was mostly there in this game but it's tough to sustain when you're undersized and running so much. And there's no "try harder" switch with Vuc, he cannot jump or move. I don't think that's an effort thing, but it has to wear on others to hear Vuc try to motivate to do something he literally cannot.
Suggs and Bane are tanks. Their whole team's physicality killed us last night. We need to be stronger. Pat and Vuc are big men but they don't play like it.
And what the hell was that free throw putback by Bitudze? Olbrich had him boxed out but Bitudze just pushed him under the basket and grabbed the ball. Is that legal? If so I'd think we would see it more.
Yeah, obviously ORL is a much better team, but the officiating was a bit in their favor throughout the game. Incidental contact you say?
It’s not apples to apples from an overall player comparison perspective, but Giddey has some of same problems as LaVine.
A good offensive player who likes to have the ball in their hands and can’t reach the next level because of their turnovers and bad defense.
There are obvious differences in their games, but some of the flaws are similar.
Lots of guys are like that (really good but not great because of some key weakness). The key is to recognize them as what they are (borderline all stars) and not to overpay them.
Sure. Except that Lavine was one of the worst defenders in the NBA, and Giddey is about league average.
He’s a better defender than LaVine, but regardless of what some numbers say, I’m going to need him to not get torched during the biggest games of the year to buy that he’s actually a league average defender.
Those silly numbers. Always getting in the way of a good narrative.
Zach is also an otherworldly efficient scorer. Like one of the best in the NBA. Giddey is an okay scorer and fairly good passer (that is somewhat held back by his turnover rate).
So yes, Giddey is a better defender than Zach, but not as effective on offense.
Like was said previously, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison, but there are some similarities in their limitations.
Billy gets a pass, rightly or wrongly, and 'rotations' is the laziest kind of coach criticism, but if he ever does get a fully healthy squad he should actually coach and tighten things up more. They cannot play to "their style" with these issues in defensive rebounding and generating turnovers. So adjust. If you lose games then because you're not getting enough easy offense, well you were losing before so who cares.
Giddey / White / Ayo / Buzelis / Vuc
bench: Jones, Collins, Smith, light sprinkling of Okoro
that's it. No more Patrick Williams. No more going 12 deep in the first quarter anymore. Play Giddey a ton of minutes to test if he fatigues, instead of preemptively saving him.
and then ultimately job of the front office is to trade Vuc. If he cannot even defensive rebound as well anymore, the whole thing falls apart
Yeah, I dunno how you trade Vuc. If anybody wanted him he would be gone already.
It looks to me like Giddey is good, and Buzelis is on his way to being good. White is our best scorer but our worst defender, so I don't know what I think of him.
Our other guys all look like subs right now. I keep hoping that one or 2 will step up but it hasn't happened yet.
'trade Vuc' meaning just get him off the team so Billy can't play him. Buyout after the trade deadline.
I know the bulls are dumb and all but I still can't understand what compelled them to give pat that contact. they're supposed to be cheap ffs
Not a smart move, that's for sure.
The reason they gave Pat a big contract is because drafting him was the first big roster addition of the AK era.
It’s well documented that AK isn’t good at his job, but it’s not talked about enough that he’s also an egomaniac. He will stick with players way too long because he thinks it’s not possible for his decisions to be wrong and anyone who pushes back will be shown the door (Peter Patton).
Locking in a starter (even at the 25th best at his position) at $19M IS being cheap, that's what they were hoping for
a starter by only their standards though ain't it
News just broke this afternoon that Essengue's shoulder injury suffered in the GLeague is going to require season-ending surgery. A truly terrible development, confirming in pen what I put in pencil in writing off his rookie season (and that being a really bad sign).
Another wasted pick....
projects can't afford to damn near a whole season....
Bulls/Nets Game Thread: https://open.substack.com/chat/posts/1be8ea70-6219-4042-88aa-508775c0dac4
This has to be the worst seven game stretch the Bulls have had this century. Just awful basketball. They’re even failing at AKME’s nebulous goal of building while competing.