The offense improved last season with a below average PG obtained in the buyout market. So, the FO had actual proof that a playmaker was necessary to get the "best" out of the starters. The FO took that data, ignored it, and elevated Coby (a 6th man with no playmaking skills) to start at PG. Zach's comments nail what's going on here.
The Bulls are not devoid of talent. I wouldn't consider any of the starters (except Pat) to be bad players. But they don't naturally fit together and, as Lonzo showed, you need a really good PG to unlock the potential of this combination of guys. The FO has had a long time to try to get that kind of player and didn't, so this experiment is now over (like the season).
the PatBev era was fool's gold. And mostly fueled by his defense.
I don't think a caretaker (non-threat) point guard would improve things. Why, so Vuc could get more shots? I suppose a great one would earn LaVine's respect?
Whether this was intentional or not, putting Coby White in at least offered a chance at actual improvement. I think his playmaking has been pretty fine, he's just not hitting shots and his defense isn't great.
Now I could also figure that the Bulls shouldn't have even tried to grasp at real improvement if they weren't going to do anything more significant. In that case just start Jevon Carter so he can walk it up, pass to DDR/Zach, and stand behind 3 point line.
That's it. Post all-star break, half the league (the good teams) rest their players for the playoffs, and the other half tanks for the draft. Then you are left with the Bulls playing hard and fooling themselves (only) about their 'true' level of standing in the league (look at our record in the last month, told you we were good)!
I think what you're getting at here is a leadership issue, which goes hand in hand with a culture issue. They signed Tristan Thompson on the buyout in 2022 who was vocal and tried to instill a sense of urgency with the team (problem being of course he wasn't any good, and didn't play PG), and then Pat Bev who was passable as a PG but also definitely assertive as a leader. The Bulls eschewed Pat for Jevon, and Pat ended up signing for a paltry 1 yr/ $3M. Minor data point there that they might not actually want players who might rock the boat culturally.
DDR and Zach, who apparently are somewhat friends, are guys who are not going to be traditional leaders, but who simultaneously expect the rock on heavy volume. Both ball stoppers, both ISO guys. It's assumed they can't really be trusted to play team ball consistently on their own, needing a 3rd person to corral them to be succesful as a team. Zach and DDR also aren't good enough to make the Bulls succesful playing hero ball, like maybe the Lakers would be with LeBron/ AD or the Mavs might be with Luka/ Kyrie (or not). And Billy cannot be that guy because he's trying to be this friendly player's coach, and Vuc can't be that guy because he's also not good enough to challenge them plus it should ideally be a PG. With no Lonzo who had the talent and quiet confidence, we're left with PG's who are just happy to be here and play Robin to Zach and DDR. As an aside, it's curious Vuc hasn't exploded like in Game 1 until after he signed his new contract... Possibly wise move by Vuc since he wasn't going to get that kind of offer elsewhere and if he'd been that vocal last year maybe they don't want to re-sign.
Pat Bev, and to a lesser extent Vuc now, are exposing the cultural complacency on this team maintained by Zach and DDR. They can't implement a modern offense without a change in leadership. Zach and DDR are fine if they were like 3rd and 4th best players with more vocal guys surrounding them, or had a dominant PG, but that's not at all close to the Bulls current makeup. It's a shame maybe Caruso couldn't have been more of a vocal leader with this team once Lonzo went down because I can't much think of who could have filled the void otherwise. Would also possibly be interesting to see what Chris Paul could do with these guys given he's a backup now... but we're a long way from 2021 so this Bulls core is probably too old regardless to do anything meaningful.
Bingo. And I think that the leadership has to come from the PG position with this group as only someone with the ball a lot can help curtail the Mid Three's worst tendencies. I've been banging the drum about PatBev being proof positive of the need for even an OK "established" PG not because he has some elite playmaking skills, but because he was able to wave off Zach to actually run the offense when he asks for the ball out of position with 18 seconds left on the shot clock.
There were some revelations about this team that came from PatBev's tenure, I think we might disagree about some of them but there is no question that the front office drew their own conclusions from it that are 100% totally wrong. They're so wrong that they're not even wrong. They're so wrong that I'm actually troubled imagining what conclusions they're drawing from this shit show right now.
I don't know if these guys dislike one another, or are simply tired of playing together, but no one is having fun playing in or watching this offense. And we've seen all of this before, our sample size spans multiple years of this shit with these guys. The Bulls will always revert back to bad, late-game possessions. They'll talk about transition, and finish bottom ten in pace. They can't shoot but will try harder at it. They might wait again until the trade deadline to try playing offense with a point guard, etc., etc. etc.
The fun part this year though? I think they might hate each other. So, that's really something I'm excited about.
It will continue for a while, too. Because due to giving everyone else a contract the only guy who will be able to escape is the actual best teammate and player (DeRozan)
I will say I found it kind of funny that DeMar said he wants to retire in Chicago just before the start of the season, and then one game in we hear that he wants to evaluate how this season goes before he decides if he wants to re-sign.
To be completely fair, he absolutely should not re-sign here if he has any respect for himself. And I absolutely did not believe for one second that he was serious about wanting to retire here. That was clearly just something he was saying to sound good going into the season. I just find it funny how quickly he about face'd on that.
It's a weird dynamic that the front office wants to be "player friendly" when a lot of players simply want to win and the front office is like "we've done what we can, you figure it out"
What's kind of interesting is that this front office has chosen "stars" that seem to care more about being taken care of by the front office (i.e. financially) than they do about winning. At least Vooch and Zach are. I do think DeMar cares about winning. I think he's just blind to the fact that his style of basketball doesn't exactly lead to wins.
So in a sense, the Bulls stars and their front office are made for each other.
I think all three care about winning, but they're all unaware of how that's done, and as you put it the fact their style of basketball doesn't exactly lead to wins.
In contrast to that we have Embiid who is embracing the new schemes under Nick Nurse. That is a winning player, and it's not just talk, he's changed the way he plays in these first 3 games already (more passing, less flopping and as a result a much more dominant Embiid in the paint):
“Good basketball to me means cutting, moving, guys getting off the ball, the ball is moving, the ball is not sticking, we’re playing together, we’re playing as a team,”
Hadn't thought of that, but I bet you're right. And honestly, I wouldn't have been surprised if it had worked. It would be about the most AK thing for him to offer DeMar a huge extension solely because DeMar pledged his life to AK's team.
As has been covered many times on this blog, this is a poorly constructed roster, managed by people who care little about anything beyond paychecks and the bottom-line, and are barely competent, at best. Whether or not the coach is actually above average, he is clearly hamstrung by those who run the show, including the star players.
From the standpoint of *serious* fans, it really is a fine example of basketball purgatory.
Caruso playing defense is, at this point, about the only joy that I can find while watching the Bulls. I can appreciate DDR's skills, and occasional late-game heroics, but even those are wearing thin. Zach has always struck me as an empty calorie scorer, and I get little pleasure from watching that type of player.
I have been a Coby skeptic from the beginning, and, while giving him credit for having improved some areas of his game, stand by my belief that he is never likely be a good starting guard – PG or SG – on any team.
I was one of those who held out hope that Pat might take a big step forward, but after only three games, I am ready to admit that he appears to lack the requisite mental toughness and drive to become an impactful NBA player. I remember that someone once joked about how MJ would have handled a young Williams, had they been teammates, and on some level, I wish that there was someone around to read him the riot act. It might completely crush him, but it would be interesting to find out.
A final note on Williams: against the Raptors, he received a pass a couple of steps outside of the arc, and Scottie Barnes jumped out and blocked his attempted shot. Stacey immediately praised Barnes for his quickness, when, of course, anyone who watched the play, or is at all familiar with Pat's various weaknesses, would have understood that the block was primarily a result of his slow, deliberate release.
While I agree with just about everything you said, Pat could have Steph Curry's release and he still would have been blocked. Barnes was basically already out on him and Pat was just launching it because he got the ball with so little time left on the clock (another classic Bulls offensive problem).
Good point, though having just watched again, Pat actually received the ball with 2.4 seconds on the clock, which is plenty of time for players, even without Curry's skills, to produce a pump fake, and still get a shot off.
Agree there. Pat definitely could have (and should have) pump faked. I'm just saying that Barnes's block wasn't all that impressive because he was already on Pat. It wasn't so much because Pat's release is slow.
How many games of terrible three point shooting until the mid-3 decide this team is made up of terrible shooters and decide to go back to pounding the ball for 22 seconds and then take a mid-range shot?
It's obviously still way too early for this, but what if this team genuinely can't shoot the three well in high volume? They're at least "good" at a slow paced game where DeMar and Zach own the mid-range. When I say good, I don't mean that it actually leads to wins, since dominating the mid-range isn't efficient. But how much do those two actually care as long as they're putting up their numbers?
I thought so, though hilariously it's the relatively "good" shooters who are shooting far below their average for the 3 (Zach 32%, Vucevic 22%, Coby 22%, Carter 20%, Pat 11%). Some of those numbers just have to come up because they're career-ending if they don't. (The 3 point attempt rates are completely off and that is almost definitely the result of a small sample.)
More attempts = lower percentage is a thing though. Other than changing every player's shot profile, the way to create more 3 attempts is to play faster. It's collecting more rain by making more rain. I won't say the Bulls cannot do this, but with the personnel they have... I doubt they can. Doesn't work with their scheme, either.
I mean, they gave Coby the keys a couple seasons ago with the same result. I wish people would realize that Coby's ceiling is a Zach LaVine understudy. He's not a starter in the league.
I'd agree his ceiling isn't very high but he could be a useful starting point guard. He'd be more useful if LaVine was traded and he took over that role, I agree there.
He can improve but they're trying to change his DNA with the starting PG role. The Wolves tried the same thing with Zach as rookie and into his second year, playing him as a PG. You'll even hear Stacey mention it on occasion when Zach makes a pass ("You know, he was a point guard in this league when he played in Minnesota, so Zach can run an offense / find people in traffic / make a basic pass"). What you won't hear is that the Zach as PG experiment failed.
In the first three games, it seems like opponents' stars show out against the Bulls. SGA went for 31/10, Scottie Barnes notched a triple-double, and Cunningham was 25/10. I definitely expect Haliburton to go off tonight, and it's a pattern I've noticed the last few years too. Is it the bulls' anemic approach to the game extra fuel for their opponents, just to expose how "Mid" the Mid-3 actually are?
Doesn't help that the Bulls are going against three straight great point guards to start the season. Coby tries hard on defense, and he has certainly improved, but he's still not a great defender.
Last weekend it finally hit me -- more than anything else, what these Bulls lack is "basketball intelligence." An enigmatic quality I know, but distinct from being athletic, skilled, instinctual, energetic, or disciplined.
I'd roughly define basketball intelligence as "understanding the right thing to do to best help your team in any given situation." Defensively Zach is the poster child for unawareness, but the Bulls' deficiencies there on run far deeper than his failings.
On offense, things are more glaring...we're such a vacuous bunch. It's not about selfishness or unselfishness, it's about understanding what a defense is giving you, how to exploit matchups, when to have patience and when to attack, and how to use space and movement to disrupt a defense. I know Stacey King isn't beloved on this board but I share his exasperation that there are NO CUTTERS during most offensive possessions. Or when they happen the cuts are badly timed/directed. Demar playing hero ball in the 4th covers up a lot of unsightly blemishes, but it's the kind of strategy one might describe as "only smart because it works."
There's lots of blame to go around (not going into that here) but this condition is at the core of the "we miss Lonzo" argument. That sentiment can feel maddeningly incessant given that Lonzo was never a dominant player by any stretch. But 'Zo, like in Oz, wasn't the Bulls' heart or nerve; he had the brains. He embodied all of the elements of basketball IQ mentioned above, while also being skilled and athletic.
Don't get me wrong -- this isn't a Lonzo stan post. Lots of other teams are filled with great bball IQ guys. He just happened to be the one guy we had who illuminated everything we didn't have (and still don't).
I don't see it as much primarily about intelligence but primarily as power struggles, and secondarily as things such as intelligence. Money and cache such as All-Star appearances are what produce star power, and what produces money and all-star appearances is largely scoring points as a player. This is Zach and Deebo to a T. Wins and defense etc are important to fans but they don't matter much to players trying to create and maintain star power. When power is achieved, then they feel entitled to be the focal point and heavy influence on the direction of the team. Only at that point can they affect deeper player goals such as defense prowess, team offense, scouting opponents, etc which contribute to championships. Lebron, Garnett, Duncan, Jokic, Kobe, these are the types of guys who are going to demand more from themselves and hence teammates as the star power center of their respective franchises, typically later in their careers. They force teammates to watch film, study opponents, understand deeper team concepts. What we have on our team, is stars who only got to Level 1 of star power, and then call it a day because nominally that's all you need to get paid and make a couple fringe All-Star teams. Jimmy Butler, another guy who got to the Level 2 tier of stars who want to sacrifice for championships and legend status. Zach and DDR don't yet have what it takes to be championship level stars, and hence the rest of the team doesn't really matter much, no matter who it is unless they somehow surpass Zach and DDR's star power.
Lonzo made it work because he was respected as a star even without the stats (draft status and name rec probably factoring in), who chose to be an unselfish true PG and as the primary facilitator, he was an exception in obtaining influence. Though Lonzo only played 35 games as a Bull (22-13) so it's anyone's guess how good that squad would have turned out. Pat Bev had a similar effect in a small sample size of like 24 games (14-10 including play-in).
I don't really disagree with you in that a team full of basketball brainiacs still needs stars to win. What it seems like you're getting at is the concept of "leadership." Winning a championship absolutely requires at least one superstar who's a sacrificial leader. Being good at ALL requires some form of this dynamic. Maybe the best example of a sacrificial leader on our team is Alex Caruso, but (as you noted) he doesn't have the gravity to pull the team's mentality into his orbit...though I don't think the IQ issue is really the same as the willingness to give maximum effort and commit to team concepts. (For what it's worth, I love AC but his bball IQ on the offensive side leaves something to be desired.)
However, my point wasn't that "basketball intelligence is the determining factor that separates good teams from bad ones." I don't believe there is just one factor, and I certainly don't think there is any missing ingredient that would transform these Bulls into championship contenders. But I'm wholly convinced that low basketball IQ is specifically what makes THIS team bad, when the presence of some fairly high-level players, some nice role players, and a historically pretty decent coach (plus the observable evidence of watching the highly enjoyable "Lonzo Bulls") make a decent case for them being pretty good.
I've been looking at the shooting stats. There are some that are just bad at this point (Jevon Carter and Coby White) and they are what they are. A few bits that caught my eye:
1. Pat Williams has not taken a single shot at the rim this year. He's only taken 1 shot within 10 feet. It was a jumper because every one of the 18 shots he's taken has been a jumper: 9 from midrange (44%) and 9 from 3 point range (11%).
The percentage is awful but the shot profile should be prompting emergency staff meetings instead of, idk, Bill Wennington taking him out for coffee. This guy is back to square 1, only more sullen than before.
2. DeMar's shooting % is a myth based upon (a) a ton of shots at the rim vs. OKC and Toronto and (b) being bailed out on fouls so often when he misses them, which wipes out the FGA. He's shooting 72% on 18 shots at the rim, far and away the most shots he's taken from anywhere and way beyond what he's done before. Pat is playing as bad as his stats, DeMar is playing worse than his. This is something to keep an eye on, because DeMar losing a few points in efficiency is way more damaging than a player with a normal 3 point shot.
3. Vucevic coming out to bitch about shots in the 1st game of the season and then shooting a blistering 41% is a vibe, man.
I think Pat is totally gone r n, DeMar's midrange game will pick up, but Vucevic looks like the winner of the "Disappointing Stats in a Small Sample That Are Worrying Of A Long Term Collapse." Nearly half of Vucevic's shots have been jumpers, and he's 3/16 on them.
But Pat is still the main issue, because the Bulls have more incentive there than with any other single player to get him contributing. Based on what we've seen, he should be able to play off the ball. They should also be running a set play for him every quarter. There was one thing I mentioned in chat, he got an offensive rebound, kicked it out to DeMar at the arc, who threw it to Zach on his left at the arc, who threw it into Vuc, who threw it back to Zach, who threw it back to DeMar who put up a bad 3 point shoot attempt. The whole time Pat was standing about 8 feet to DeMar's right, not wide open but with a defender giving a wide berth. Maybe they don't like him, maybe they don't trust him, maybe they resent having to carry his ass on the court for the last 3 years. That's a huge problem if so. DeMar isn't going to become a good 3 point shooter, Zach isn't going to stop making horrible decisions and Vucevic isn't going to develop a better +1 game going into the paint. It has to come from Pat, and maybe it can't, but if his other teammates are freezing him out, there's nothing you can do. He becomes another draft pick that we come to loath and will go on to improve elsewhere.
Good comment. I didn't want ramble on about Pat, but agree with what you say. I also find it remarkable that the coaches have made zero effort to utilize him in the post. He is guarded by smaller players at times, and should able to take advantage down low, but it never seems to happen.
As you suggest, Pat, while flawed, would almost certainly be more productive elsewhere.
Why did this team ever work? Because Lonzo could shoot, initiate the offense, and cover up a lot of terrible defense, especially from Vuc.
Nobody else can do all three of those things.
Caruso can cover up Vuc's terrible defense.
Coby (maybe) can shoot and initiate an offense.
Carter (maybe) can shoot.
The easiest path to improvement is replacing Vuc with a center who's capable of playing defense. That will will make it easier to play guys like Coby and Carter who are offensive threats, but it'll also allow us to cover up more of Zach and DeMar's defensive deficiencies.
Can we do that? I dunno. If I were the Bulls, I'd be calling up the Griz and basically begging them to take Vuc, because they are the only team I picture that might make a reasonable offer for him. Charlotte might make a less reasonable offer I guess. And I'd be shopping around Pat for a youngish center (Robert Williams, WCJr, etc)
At this point I'm totally in on blowing it up, first time I've said that, if in no small part because I'm beyond tired of every narrative surrounding this team
I am expecting the Pacers to get a statement win tonight. I do not think the Bulls have the legs to keep up with them. It seems like a nightmare matchup for a slow team with no identity.
I like what they did with Obi Toppin. I do not think that he is a starting caliber NBA player in most situations. But he fits what they are trying to do perfectly (running the floor, verticality) and they got him for two second rounders. I do not think the Knicks were a great fit for him but he should be a valuable contributor for Indiana.
The Toppin deal is a winner even if he never amounts to anything. It's so low-risk that I have to assume it was some kind of agent-driven thing done as a favor.
Dude was taken 4 spots after Pat, for what it's worth.
Looking at the NBA play type data you can get a sense of all the problems with the Bulls offense. I used last year’s data (cause face it the team’s the same) and identified some high ceiling plays: transition, PnR roll man, basket cuts, and putbacks.
The only one of those plays where the Bulls were near the top in frequency was PnR roll man, but their scoring efficiency was only good for 20th in the league. To put it another way, of the play types that power modern, efficient offenses, the Bulls only ran one with any regularity and they ran it poorly.
Let’s say Donovan had some kind of point guard and they installed an offensive system with more emphasis on basket cuts. Theoretically could they run that system better than, say, the league worst Houston Rockets? If so they would get at least 1.16 points per possession off of it, better than the 1.12 from Vooch’s vaunted post ups.
So this is why I’m increasingly falling on the side of “burn everything to the ground and start over.” Three point shooting is not the only part of the shot profile they need to change. They need to fundamentally change the way most of these guys, and the coach, approach offense. It’s just too late for the Mid 3 to be making that kind of change.
What the Bulls need (playmaking defensive point guard and a shotblocking rim-running 3 point shooting PF) is so far beyond their ability to barter or pay for those things that it's time to set the charges and just forget about it. Actually the time has past, what we have are a variety of diminished or diminishing pieces and our ability to acquire those things is close to zero.
We're that team that is looking at the scoreboard and seeing Joel Embiid dribble 3/4ths of the court and deliver a rocket pass right into the hands of a slashing wing and saying "Boy if we had one of those, we'd be right back into it!" Except we actually need two. There are none of what we need on the market and none we can afford and even in their depleted state other teams still have more than we do to pay for them. It's grim.
The Bulls bought high on a bunch of guys, watched their value crash, and now don't want to let them go plus they're not worth much now anyways. What are they, my investment portfolio? BA DUM TSSS (sobbing uncontrollably)
I can see the Bulls being in line to get many ping pong balls for next June's draft by all-star weekend, only for them to pick up wins in the last month when the other teams are tanking or chilling.
The offense improved last season with a below average PG obtained in the buyout market. So, the FO had actual proof that a playmaker was necessary to get the "best" out of the starters. The FO took that data, ignored it, and elevated Coby (a 6th man with no playmaking skills) to start at PG. Zach's comments nail what's going on here.
The Bulls are not devoid of talent. I wouldn't consider any of the starters (except Pat) to be bad players. But they don't naturally fit together and, as Lonzo showed, you need a really good PG to unlock the potential of this combination of guys. The FO has had a long time to try to get that kind of player and didn't, so this experiment is now over (like the season).
the PatBev era was fool's gold. And mostly fueled by his defense.
I don't think a caretaker (non-threat) point guard would improve things. Why, so Vuc could get more shots? I suppose a great one would earn LaVine's respect?
Whether this was intentional or not, putting Coby White in at least offered a chance at actual improvement. I think his playmaking has been pretty fine, he's just not hitting shots and his defense isn't great.
Now I could also figure that the Bulls shouldn't have even tried to grasp at real improvement if they weren't going to do anything more significant. In that case just start Jevon Carter so he can walk it up, pass to DDR/Zach, and stand behind 3 point line.
I think this is right. Playing Coby and Caruso more and Ayo less would have accomplished the same thing as PatBev.
The Bulls were playing hard against trash teams that were actively trying to lose.
That's it. Post all-star break, half the league (the good teams) rest their players for the playoffs, and the other half tanks for the draft. Then you are left with the Bulls playing hard and fooling themselves (only) about their 'true' level of standing in the league (look at our record in the last month, told you we were good)!
I think what you're getting at here is a leadership issue, which goes hand in hand with a culture issue. They signed Tristan Thompson on the buyout in 2022 who was vocal and tried to instill a sense of urgency with the team (problem being of course he wasn't any good, and didn't play PG), and then Pat Bev who was passable as a PG but also definitely assertive as a leader. The Bulls eschewed Pat for Jevon, and Pat ended up signing for a paltry 1 yr/ $3M. Minor data point there that they might not actually want players who might rock the boat culturally.
DDR and Zach, who apparently are somewhat friends, are guys who are not going to be traditional leaders, but who simultaneously expect the rock on heavy volume. Both ball stoppers, both ISO guys. It's assumed they can't really be trusted to play team ball consistently on their own, needing a 3rd person to corral them to be succesful as a team. Zach and DDR also aren't good enough to make the Bulls succesful playing hero ball, like maybe the Lakers would be with LeBron/ AD or the Mavs might be with Luka/ Kyrie (or not). And Billy cannot be that guy because he's trying to be this friendly player's coach, and Vuc can't be that guy because he's also not good enough to challenge them plus it should ideally be a PG. With no Lonzo who had the talent and quiet confidence, we're left with PG's who are just happy to be here and play Robin to Zach and DDR. As an aside, it's curious Vuc hasn't exploded like in Game 1 until after he signed his new contract... Possibly wise move by Vuc since he wasn't going to get that kind of offer elsewhere and if he'd been that vocal last year maybe they don't want to re-sign.
Pat Bev, and to a lesser extent Vuc now, are exposing the cultural complacency on this team maintained by Zach and DDR. They can't implement a modern offense without a change in leadership. Zach and DDR are fine if they were like 3rd and 4th best players with more vocal guys surrounding them, or had a dominant PG, but that's not at all close to the Bulls current makeup. It's a shame maybe Caruso couldn't have been more of a vocal leader with this team once Lonzo went down because I can't much think of who could have filled the void otherwise. Would also possibly be interesting to see what Chris Paul could do with these guys given he's a backup now... but we're a long way from 2021 so this Bulls core is probably too old regardless to do anything meaningful.
Bingo. And I think that the leadership has to come from the PG position with this group as only someone with the ball a lot can help curtail the Mid Three's worst tendencies. I've been banging the drum about PatBev being proof positive of the need for even an OK "established" PG not because he has some elite playmaking skills, but because he was able to wave off Zach to actually run the offense when he asks for the ball out of position with 18 seconds left on the shot clock.
There were some revelations about this team that came from PatBev's tenure, I think we might disagree about some of them but there is no question that the front office drew their own conclusions from it that are 100% totally wrong. They're so wrong that they're not even wrong. They're so wrong that I'm actually troubled imagining what conclusions they're drawing from this shit show right now.
I don't know if these guys dislike one another, or are simply tired of playing together, but no one is having fun playing in or watching this offense. And we've seen all of this before, our sample size spans multiple years of this shit with these guys. The Bulls will always revert back to bad, late-game possessions. They'll talk about transition, and finish bottom ten in pace. They can't shoot but will try harder at it. They might wait again until the trade deadline to try playing offense with a point guard, etc., etc. etc.
The fun part this year though? I think they might hate each other. So, that's really something I'm excited about.
It will continue for a while, too. Because due to giving everyone else a contract the only guy who will be able to escape is the actual best teammate and player (DeRozan)
I will say I found it kind of funny that DeMar said he wants to retire in Chicago just before the start of the season, and then one game in we hear that he wants to evaluate how this season goes before he decides if he wants to re-sign.
To be completely fair, he absolutely should not re-sign here if he has any respect for himself. And I absolutely did not believe for one second that he was serious about wanting to retire here. That was clearly just something he was saying to sound good going into the season. I just find it funny how quickly he about face'd on that.
It's a weird dynamic that the front office wants to be "player friendly" when a lot of players simply want to win and the front office is like "we've done what we can, you figure it out"
What's kind of interesting is that this front office has chosen "stars" that seem to care more about being taken care of by the front office (i.e. financially) than they do about winning. At least Vooch and Zach are. I do think DeMar cares about winning. I think he's just blind to the fact that his style of basketball doesn't exactly lead to wins.
So in a sense, the Bulls stars and their front office are made for each other.
I think all three care about winning, but they're all unaware of how that's done, and as you put it the fact their style of basketball doesn't exactly lead to wins.
In contrast to that we have Embiid who is embracing the new schemes under Nick Nurse. That is a winning player, and it's not just talk, he's changed the way he plays in these first 3 games already (more passing, less flopping and as a result a much more dominant Embiid in the paint):
“Good basketball to me means cutting, moving, guys getting off the ball, the ball is moving, the ball is not sticking, we’re playing together, we’re playing as a team,”
I took the "I want to retire here" as him trying to negotiate through the media.
Hadn't thought of that, but I bet you're right. And honestly, I wouldn't have been surprised if it had worked. It would be about the most AK thing for him to offer DeMar a huge extension solely because DeMar pledged his life to AK's team.
Problem being that Zach and DDR don't hate each other, and are the leaders of the team culture
As has been covered many times on this blog, this is a poorly constructed roster, managed by people who care little about anything beyond paychecks and the bottom-line, and are barely competent, at best. Whether or not the coach is actually above average, he is clearly hamstrung by those who run the show, including the star players.
From the standpoint of *serious* fans, it really is a fine example of basketball purgatory.
Caruso playing defense is, at this point, about the only joy that I can find while watching the Bulls. I can appreciate DDR's skills, and occasional late-game heroics, but even those are wearing thin. Zach has always struck me as an empty calorie scorer, and I get little pleasure from watching that type of player.
I have been a Coby skeptic from the beginning, and, while giving him credit for having improved some areas of his game, stand by my belief that he is never likely be a good starting guard – PG or SG – on any team.
I was one of those who held out hope that Pat might take a big step forward, but after only three games, I am ready to admit that he appears to lack the requisite mental toughness and drive to become an impactful NBA player. I remember that someone once joked about how MJ would have handled a young Williams, had they been teammates, and on some level, I wish that there was someone around to read him the riot act. It might completely crush him, but it would be interesting to find out.
A final note on Williams: against the Raptors, he received a pass a couple of steps outside of the arc, and Scottie Barnes jumped out and blocked his attempted shot. Stacey immediately praised Barnes for his quickness, when, of course, anyone who watched the play, or is at all familiar with Pat's various weaknesses, would have understood that the block was primarily a result of his slow, deliberate release.
While I agree with just about everything you said, Pat could have Steph Curry's release and he still would have been blocked. Barnes was basically already out on him and Pat was just launching it because he got the ball with so little time left on the clock (another classic Bulls offensive problem).
Good point, though having just watched again, Pat actually received the ball with 2.4 seconds on the clock, which is plenty of time for players, even without Curry's skills, to produce a pump fake, and still get a shot off.
Agree there. Pat definitely could have (and should have) pump faked. I'm just saying that Barnes's block wasn't all that impressive because he was already on Pat. It wasn't so much because Pat's release is slow.
Yup, you're right.
How many games of terrible three point shooting until the mid-3 decide this team is made up of terrible shooters and decide to go back to pounding the ball for 22 seconds and then take a mid-range shot?
It's obviously still way too early for this, but what if this team genuinely can't shoot the three well in high volume? They're at least "good" at a slow paced game where DeMar and Zach own the mid-range. When I say good, I don't mean that it actually leads to wins, since dominating the mid-range isn't efficient. But how much do those two actually care as long as they're putting up their numbers?
By the looks of things, this happened after about 2 and a half quarters.
You might be right...
I thought so, though hilariously it's the relatively "good" shooters who are shooting far below their average for the 3 (Zach 32%, Vucevic 22%, Coby 22%, Carter 20%, Pat 11%). Some of those numbers just have to come up because they're career-ending if they don't. (The 3 point attempt rates are completely off and that is almost definitely the result of a small sample.)
More attempts = lower percentage is a thing though. Other than changing every player's shot profile, the way to create more 3 attempts is to play faster. It's collecting more rain by making more rain. I won't say the Bulls cannot do this, but with the personnel they have... I doubt they can. Doesn't work with their scheme, either.
I mean, they gave Coby the keys a couple seasons ago with the same result. I wish people would realize that Coby's ceiling is a Zach LaVine understudy. He's not a starter in the league.
he can't improve over those 2 seasons?
I'd agree his ceiling isn't very high but he could be a useful starting point guard. He'd be more useful if LaVine was traded and he took over that role, I agree there.
He can improve but they're trying to change his DNA with the starting PG role. The Wolves tried the same thing with Zach as rookie and into his second year, playing him as a PG. You'll even hear Stacey mention it on occasion when Zach makes a pass ("You know, he was a point guard in this league when he played in Minnesota, so Zach can run an offense / find people in traffic / make a basic pass"). What you won't hear is that the Zach as PG experiment failed.
In the first three games, it seems like opponents' stars show out against the Bulls. SGA went for 31/10, Scottie Barnes notched a triple-double, and Cunningham was 25/10. I definitely expect Haliburton to go off tonight, and it's a pattern I've noticed the last few years too. Is it the bulls' anemic approach to the game extra fuel for their opponents, just to expose how "Mid" the Mid-3 actually are?
Doesn't help that the Bulls are going against three straight great point guards to start the season. Coby tries hard on defense, and he has certainly improved, but he's still not a great defender.
There's no moves to make because we're past the point where our players have much value.
Last weekend it finally hit me -- more than anything else, what these Bulls lack is "basketball intelligence." An enigmatic quality I know, but distinct from being athletic, skilled, instinctual, energetic, or disciplined.
I'd roughly define basketball intelligence as "understanding the right thing to do to best help your team in any given situation." Defensively Zach is the poster child for unawareness, but the Bulls' deficiencies there on run far deeper than his failings.
On offense, things are more glaring...we're such a vacuous bunch. It's not about selfishness or unselfishness, it's about understanding what a defense is giving you, how to exploit matchups, when to have patience and when to attack, and how to use space and movement to disrupt a defense. I know Stacey King isn't beloved on this board but I share his exasperation that there are NO CUTTERS during most offensive possessions. Or when they happen the cuts are badly timed/directed. Demar playing hero ball in the 4th covers up a lot of unsightly blemishes, but it's the kind of strategy one might describe as "only smart because it works."
There's lots of blame to go around (not going into that here) but this condition is at the core of the "we miss Lonzo" argument. That sentiment can feel maddeningly incessant given that Lonzo was never a dominant player by any stretch. But 'Zo, like in Oz, wasn't the Bulls' heart or nerve; he had the brains. He embodied all of the elements of basketball IQ mentioned above, while also being skilled and athletic.
Don't get me wrong -- this isn't a Lonzo stan post. Lots of other teams are filled with great bball IQ guys. He just happened to be the one guy we had who illuminated everything we didn't have (and still don't).
I don't see it as much primarily about intelligence but primarily as power struggles, and secondarily as things such as intelligence. Money and cache such as All-Star appearances are what produce star power, and what produces money and all-star appearances is largely scoring points as a player. This is Zach and Deebo to a T. Wins and defense etc are important to fans but they don't matter much to players trying to create and maintain star power. When power is achieved, then they feel entitled to be the focal point and heavy influence on the direction of the team. Only at that point can they affect deeper player goals such as defense prowess, team offense, scouting opponents, etc which contribute to championships. Lebron, Garnett, Duncan, Jokic, Kobe, these are the types of guys who are going to demand more from themselves and hence teammates as the star power center of their respective franchises, typically later in their careers. They force teammates to watch film, study opponents, understand deeper team concepts. What we have on our team, is stars who only got to Level 1 of star power, and then call it a day because nominally that's all you need to get paid and make a couple fringe All-Star teams. Jimmy Butler, another guy who got to the Level 2 tier of stars who want to sacrifice for championships and legend status. Zach and DDR don't yet have what it takes to be championship level stars, and hence the rest of the team doesn't really matter much, no matter who it is unless they somehow surpass Zach and DDR's star power.
Lonzo made it work because he was respected as a star even without the stats (draft status and name rec probably factoring in), who chose to be an unselfish true PG and as the primary facilitator, he was an exception in obtaining influence. Though Lonzo only played 35 games as a Bull (22-13) so it's anyone's guess how good that squad would have turned out. Pat Bev had a similar effect in a small sample size of like 24 games (14-10 including play-in).
I don't really disagree with you in that a team full of basketball brainiacs still needs stars to win. What it seems like you're getting at is the concept of "leadership." Winning a championship absolutely requires at least one superstar who's a sacrificial leader. Being good at ALL requires some form of this dynamic. Maybe the best example of a sacrificial leader on our team is Alex Caruso, but (as you noted) he doesn't have the gravity to pull the team's mentality into his orbit...though I don't think the IQ issue is really the same as the willingness to give maximum effort and commit to team concepts. (For what it's worth, I love AC but his bball IQ on the offensive side leaves something to be desired.)
However, my point wasn't that "basketball intelligence is the determining factor that separates good teams from bad ones." I don't believe there is just one factor, and I certainly don't think there is any missing ingredient that would transform these Bulls into championship contenders. But I'm wholly convinced that low basketball IQ is specifically what makes THIS team bad, when the presence of some fairly high-level players, some nice role players, and a historically pretty decent coach (plus the observable evidence of watching the highly enjoyable "Lonzo Bulls") make a decent case for them being pretty good.
I've been looking at the shooting stats. There are some that are just bad at this point (Jevon Carter and Coby White) and they are what they are. A few bits that caught my eye:
1. Pat Williams has not taken a single shot at the rim this year. He's only taken 1 shot within 10 feet. It was a jumper because every one of the 18 shots he's taken has been a jumper: 9 from midrange (44%) and 9 from 3 point range (11%).
The percentage is awful but the shot profile should be prompting emergency staff meetings instead of, idk, Bill Wennington taking him out for coffee. This guy is back to square 1, only more sullen than before.
2. DeMar's shooting % is a myth based upon (a) a ton of shots at the rim vs. OKC and Toronto and (b) being bailed out on fouls so often when he misses them, which wipes out the FGA. He's shooting 72% on 18 shots at the rim, far and away the most shots he's taken from anywhere and way beyond what he's done before. Pat is playing as bad as his stats, DeMar is playing worse than his. This is something to keep an eye on, because DeMar losing a few points in efficiency is way more damaging than a player with a normal 3 point shot.
3. Vucevic coming out to bitch about shots in the 1st game of the season and then shooting a blistering 41% is a vibe, man.
I think Pat is totally gone r n, DeMar's midrange game will pick up, but Vucevic looks like the winner of the "Disappointing Stats in a Small Sample That Are Worrying Of A Long Term Collapse." Nearly half of Vucevic's shots have been jumpers, and he's 3/16 on them.
But Pat is still the main issue, because the Bulls have more incentive there than with any other single player to get him contributing. Based on what we've seen, he should be able to play off the ball. They should also be running a set play for him every quarter. There was one thing I mentioned in chat, he got an offensive rebound, kicked it out to DeMar at the arc, who threw it to Zach on his left at the arc, who threw it into Vuc, who threw it back to Zach, who threw it back to DeMar who put up a bad 3 point shoot attempt. The whole time Pat was standing about 8 feet to DeMar's right, not wide open but with a defender giving a wide berth. Maybe they don't like him, maybe they don't trust him, maybe they resent having to carry his ass on the court for the last 3 years. That's a huge problem if so. DeMar isn't going to become a good 3 point shooter, Zach isn't going to stop making horrible decisions and Vucevic isn't going to develop a better +1 game going into the paint. It has to come from Pat, and maybe it can't, but if his other teammates are freezing him out, there's nothing you can do. He becomes another draft pick that we come to loath and will go on to improve elsewhere.
Good comment. I didn't want ramble on about Pat, but agree with what you say. I also find it remarkable that the coaches have made zero effort to utilize him in the post. He is guarded by smaller players at times, and should able to take advantage down low, but it never seems to happen.
As you suggest, Pat, while flawed, would almost certainly be more productive elsewhere.
I think Donovan literally does not coach offense.
"Vucevic coming out to bitch about shots in the 1st game of the season and then shooting a blistering 41% is a vibe, man."
The balls this man has... No wonder he can't jump; them stones are HEAVY!
Why did this team ever work? Because Lonzo could shoot, initiate the offense, and cover up a lot of terrible defense, especially from Vuc.
Nobody else can do all three of those things.
Caruso can cover up Vuc's terrible defense.
Coby (maybe) can shoot and initiate an offense.
Carter (maybe) can shoot.
The easiest path to improvement is replacing Vuc with a center who's capable of playing defense. That will will make it easier to play guys like Coby and Carter who are offensive threats, but it'll also allow us to cover up more of Zach and DeMar's defensive deficiencies.
Can we do that? I dunno. If I were the Bulls, I'd be calling up the Griz and basically begging them to take Vuc, because they are the only team I picture that might make a reasonable offer for him. Charlotte might make a less reasonable offer I guess. And I'd be shopping around Pat for a youngish center (Robert Williams, WCJr, etc)
Honestly, Vooch would fit next to JJJ. That might be the only place where he actually looks decent because he won't be expected to protect the paint.
At this point I'm totally in on blowing it up, first time I've said that, if in no small part because I'm beyond tired of every narrative surrounding this team
I was on the "let's retool" bandwagon for a while, but I'm fully in the "blow it up" camp now. Screw this team.
I am expecting the Pacers to get a statement win tonight. I do not think the Bulls have the legs to keep up with them. It seems like a nightmare matchup for a slow team with no identity.
I like what they did with Obi Toppin. I do not think that he is a starting caliber NBA player in most situations. But he fits what they are trying to do perfectly (running the floor, verticality) and they got him for two second rounders. I do not think the Knicks were a great fit for him but he should be a valuable contributor for Indiana.
The Toppin deal is a winner even if he never amounts to anything. It's so low-risk that I have to assume it was some kind of agent-driven thing done as a favor.
Dude was taken 4 spots after Pat, for what it's worth.
Looking at the NBA play type data you can get a sense of all the problems with the Bulls offense. I used last year’s data (cause face it the team’s the same) and identified some high ceiling plays: transition, PnR roll man, basket cuts, and putbacks.
The only one of those plays where the Bulls were near the top in frequency was PnR roll man, but their scoring efficiency was only good for 20th in the league. To put it another way, of the play types that power modern, efficient offenses, the Bulls only ran one with any regularity and they ran it poorly.
Let’s say Donovan had some kind of point guard and they installed an offensive system with more emphasis on basket cuts. Theoretically could they run that system better than, say, the league worst Houston Rockets? If so they would get at least 1.16 points per possession off of it, better than the 1.12 from Vooch’s vaunted post ups.
So this is why I’m increasingly falling on the side of “burn everything to the ground and start over.” Three point shooting is not the only part of the shot profile they need to change. They need to fundamentally change the way most of these guys, and the coach, approach offense. It’s just too late for the Mid 3 to be making that kind of change.
What the Bulls need (playmaking defensive point guard and a shotblocking rim-running 3 point shooting PF) is so far beyond their ability to barter or pay for those things that it's time to set the charges and just forget about it. Actually the time has past, what we have are a variety of diminished or diminishing pieces and our ability to acquire those things is close to zero.
We're that team that is looking at the scoreboard and seeing Joel Embiid dribble 3/4ths of the court and deliver a rocket pass right into the hands of a slashing wing and saying "Boy if we had one of those, we'd be right back into it!" Except we actually need two. There are none of what we need on the market and none we can afford and even in their depleted state other teams still have more than we do to pay for them. It's grim.
The Bulls bought high on a bunch of guys, watched their value crash, and now don't want to let them go plus they're not worth much now anyways. What are they, my investment portfolio? BA DUM TSSS (sobbing uncontrollably)
Blue Horseshoe loves Teldar Paper
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from boozer, to gasol, to vooch
game preview is up: https://www.blogabull.com/p/bulls-vs-pacers-lineups-and-preview?r=2bo&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
I can see the Bulls being in line to get many ping pong balls for next June's draft by all-star weekend, only for them to pick up wins in the last month when the other teams are tanking or chilling.