the Bulls made their free agency splash in the kiddie pool

two solid, smart signings that at least don't underwhelm like last summer

The initial frenzy of 2023 Free Agency is over, and the Bulls actually did pretty well in signing two affordable, well-fitting role players in Jevon Carter (3 years, ~$20M) and Torrey Craig (1 year + player option, at or near the minimum?).

These aren’t major additions, but clears the low bar over the totality of their work during the last three league transaction periods, and looks better in the following context:

1. The Bulls are trying not to contend, but instead be an affordable, well-fitting team.

2. Arturas Karnisovas has no idea what he’s doing and believes the PatBev-era Bulls was a legitimate success, instead of a fools’ gold product of tanking season around the league.

3. The roster was in a cap and tax crunch.

These tenets of mediocrity were all solidified days before free agency began, when they decided to lock in the 20th best starting center in the league beginning his age-33 season at a number no other team would reasonably offer. Once that was committed, you kind of have to accept the above, or at least interpret any future moves with those factors in mind.

There are still a couple huge lingering dominoes to fall around the league in Damian Lillard and James Harden’s respective trade requests. The Bulls could get involved here, and there is smoke (but no firm rumor) that Zach LaVine would be moved out, and that would certainly be significant.

But barring that, this offseason looks as simple as the Bulls thinking they were a couple role players away from…something…and they both locked up their own (Vuc, plus Coby White returning for 3 years and $33-40M) and targeted improvements on the margins. Carter and Craig will replace rotation minutes from the amalgam of Patrick Beverley, Ayo Dosunmu (currently in restricted free agency limbo, could return but won’t be firmly in the rotation), Javonte Green, and Derrick Jones.

This will not be a drastic change in role or style. The idea is that the new guys will be asked to do the same as the old guys, but they’re more capable on both sides of the ball. They can hold their own defending their positions (since every player has to be defense-first to accommodate ‘special’ Vuc), but are far more willing and capable 3-point shooters:

Three point shooting is a glaring hole on this roster, and making these improvements, albeit on more marginal roles on the roster, will help. There are a couple other less significant considerations:

Craig in particular is a strong offensive rebounder, an area of offense that the Bulls more or less have surrendered (again, gotta make everything considerate of Vuc!).

And this slow team, 20th in pace last year, should be an even slower team. At point guard, Jevon Carter is not a Lonzo Ball replacement, he’s a Patrick Beverley replacement. He’s not going to push the pace or bend the defense by applying pressure towards the rim. At the least, can he make an entry pass (gotta. feed. Vuc.)?

I also think it’s healthy to be skeptical theorize why these two players were available from their contending teams and instead wanted to join the Bulls. How much of Carter’s defense was helped by having Giannis and Brook Lopez behind him? And the Suns - who were massively restricted in signing free agents from other teams - didn’t want Craig back?

Neither player should be touted as a fix, but I also believe the hype in so much that it’s far more accurate than whatever praise was put on last summer’s additions of Andre Drummond and Goran Dragic.

The below assumes the Bulls won’t get involved in the aforementioned first-division NBA transactions to come, but it’s a logical straightforward playing rotation:

Starters: Carter/LaVine/DeRozan/Williams/Vucevic

Bench: White, Caruso, Craig, Drummond

This is convenient for Billy (trying out “roll the ball out” Billy as a nickname) Donovan too. I suppose there are still question marks at PG and PF, as I could see the new guy or incumbent take either starting spot. But in doing so, it feels good to assume these choices won’t incur a huge dropoff like last season.

Altogether, the rotation looks to be as set as ‘gunning for the 7th seed in the East’ can be.

There is still work to be done on the back-end of the roster, where the Bulls have been dismal in the AK era. Ideally, the Bulls would use these spots to cycle in multiple ‘shots’ at a future rotation player, and then move quickly if it ain’t happening. Right now Dalen Terry and Julian Phillips are signed, and Dosunmu very likely could return. The three two-way slots are also currently filled, and we could see that shake out further at Summer League next week.

Cap-wise, the Bulls are so close to the luxury tax that the now-unknown details really matter in terms of speculating whether the Bulls have more to offer (well technically they could, I’m speaking in practical ‘dorf-land terms). They did (remarkable, in my opinion) apply for a Disabled Player Exception for the disabled Lonzo Ball. It ($10.2M) likely won’t be granted until way closer to the season start date, and given the Bulls proximity to the tax won’t be used until midseason, if at all.

(Nobody really believed the Bulls were going to be aggressive and go deep into the tax because the always-uncomfortable AK looked instead uncomfortable-but-with-a-smug-demeanor-this-time after the draft, right? right?)

For these last couple roster spots they could try another prospect, or a veteran stiff leader type, or make a play at true depth should one of the set rotation players falters or gets hurt. They could likely use more size at the wing, and can never get enough shooting.

This brings to mind the idea that the Bulls signing Jevon Carter and Torrey Craig now is commendable management, but not optimal. They both were good potential buy-low pickups at the 2022 trade deadline: Carter was available on waivers, and Craig was dealt for a 2nd rounder and expiring salary. The best front offices in the league would always be on the lookout for the next version of these additions, not pay market rate in unrestricted free agency.

But I have given up on the AKME regime being great, which is an inherent problem given ownership limitations.

This free agency period at least shows competence. Competence towards executing an underwhelming and often-incoherent vision, but being a Bulls fan means lowering expectations.