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Jul 2, 2023
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Joel Barker's avatar

Feels like just a DD effort. I would be shocked if they use the DPE and go into the luxury tax.

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MikeDC's avatar

I'm calling it that they are working pretty hard to move Zach. They're going to trade his $40M for, like Herro at $27M and 1) stay under the cap and 2) use the DPE.

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

I don't see it. I think AK was full of shit when he was implying it was a big offseason. In his mind re-signing Vuc is a star acquisition

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MikeDC's avatar

Maybe, but I think there's too much talk for the Bulls not to desire to do something. And perhaps more obviously, I don't think they'd have any intent to use the DPE if they're keeping Zach around.

A cost cutting move is in the offing, and Zach is the biggest cost.

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Dionysus2.0's avatar

Why do you think the Bulls would trade Zach over DeMar? The better player entering his prime is the one that should be retained over the old player who poorly fits the roster. DeMar for Herro works and would save them a little bit of money in the short term...Is it simply the conclusion that the penultimate goal of the Bulls is to save money each season? A cost cutting move with the second highest player also makes sense, especially if the returning salary isnt longer term than the recent extensions that were signed...

I know there has been a lot of smoke around a LaVine deal, but this front office has not been one to leak their moves prior to them being made, so I have wonder where that is coming from....?

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MikeDC's avatar

Lots of reasons that boil down to different talent evaluation and different priorities:

1. Zach isn't necessarily a better player. They're comparable players based on the better impact metrics, most stats, and by recognition awards. Possibly, DeMar is the better player. Better can also include recognition and interest from other players around the league. Could be that DeMar helps in a lot of these intangible ways that Zach doesn't

2. With his history of knee problems and reliance on athleticism, Zach might be mid way through his prime or more rather than just entering it. DeMar's lower reliance on athleticism could conceivably keep him around quite a while. It's possible that both of them only have 3-4 good seasons left. So it's a push.

3. It's not clear at all that either guy fits poorly or well with the roster, or that anyone should spend any time thinking about whether the star players fit with the Dalen Terrys at Pat Williamses, because those guys aren't very good. DeMar and Zach seem to fit better than Zach and Herro, who are both smallish SGs. I don't take seriously these concerns when they go "Our SG and SF don't mesh well, so let's trade the SF for another SG".

4. The Bulls have added one guard who figures to play (Carter), retained another (Coby), are trying to retain a 3rd (Ayo), and have a 4th who demands minutes (Caruso). They're closer to filling out a credible guard rotation without Zach than they are their forward rotation (DeMar, Pat, Craig) without DeMar.

5. It's not simply cost cutting, it's efficiency. DeMar is efficient at his salary. And if the Bulls want to completely change directions, they just let him go. Zach is pretty routinely named as one of the league's worst contracts. No matter how people dance around that, the bottom line is his contract returns little bang for a lot of bucks. So if you want to get better, the best way to do that is to use your money productively.

6. It's just a narrative that gets repeated that the FO doesn't telegraph its moves. They were linked to Lonzo long before they traded for him. They were linked to DeMar before they traded for him. They were signaling they wanted to S&T Lauri before they signed and traded him.

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Dionysus2.0's avatar

Thank you for the well thought out response; I appreciate it. I see DeMar as an older expensive player who doesnt really fit with the style of play I think the Bulls should be playing.

If you are right, that DeMar may be seen as the better player in league circles, then his expiring contract should be an enticing asset in trade vs. Zach's $129M guaranteed....

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Jun 30, 2023
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kinbote's avatar

All hail King Neptune and his Water Breathers

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MikeDC's avatar

I think you mean Mr Nimbus

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Jun 30, 2023
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TheArtistFormerlyKnownAsJB's avatar

If this front office is insistent on keeping this core together, then bringing back Ayo just doesn’t make much sense.

His ceiling appears to be “quality role player”, which is perfectly fine for a second round pick. But his skillset does not fit this current team.

If Ayo wasn’t from Chicago, this fanbase would care at least 75% less about bringing him back. Couple that with the fact that Vuc is back just because AK doesn’t want to admit he lost the trade, and it’s looking like our front office is giving new contracts to basketball players for reasons that don’t have anything to do with basketball.

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MikeDC's avatar

MikeDC's created and approved list of guys who are available probably for cheap and can shoot

5 - Bamba, Bryant

4/5 -Wood, Jaxson Hayes

4 - Lyles, Bazley

3/4 - Taurean Prince

3 - Nwora, TBJr

2 - NAW

1 - Aaron Holiday

All of those guys except Hayes (who's young and big) have some hope to be or are plus shooters. They're all likely available for relatively little. Just clear out the bottom five slots on the roster and pick them up. Add shooters.

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

That's a nice list ya got there, which means AK's gonna hard pass on all of them. Here comes the D. Rose homecoming train though! Choo choo!!

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Dionysus2.0's avatar

A few more names for your approval:

5 - Brook Lopez

4/5 - Dario Saric

3/4 - Georges Niang

3 - Yuta Watanabe

2 - Eric Gordon

1 - Seth Curry

I don't know how cheap they will be, but I doubt they getting the full MLE (well, maybe Curry)...

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MikeDC's avatar

I'd pass on most of those guys as either too expensive or not young enough.

Saric seems like he'd be cheap enough and has real size, so I'd definitely give him a look though

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H_Vaughn's avatar

I wonder about JaMychal Green as the Dollar General version of a Naz Reid/Saric-type. He can push up near 40% on threes and would give the Bulls a second tall, strong person at the 4.

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Bullini's avatar

Jaxson Hayes can dunk but cannot shoot.

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Rich Karpinski's avatar

That's honestly uber-confusing, and requires a bit of 3D chess -- right up AK's skill-alley!

Given what you laid out, I think the path is Caruso at 'point' with the starting group and whoever is left over on second unit, including a single or split MLE signing. I don't see any real point guard options and the first team needs Caruso's defense more than a non-point guard shooter.

Of course making a big-two trade plus potential s&ts with Coby or Ayo would be a bigger, necessary shakeup, but.....

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H_Vaughn's avatar

How do you get Coby White to a $13 mil cap figure when no one else wants him and he has a $7.78 qualifying offer?

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

I probably should've rounded down to the MLE

But I could see a cap space team doing a front-loaded contract

and yeah nobody reportedly wants him, but nobody reportedly wanted Vuc either, and he got way more than MLE

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Rich Karpinski's avatar

Vuc should have been (could he?) front-loaded as well, would have made it easier to trade down the line though would have cut into this year perhaps?

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

yep that's the trade-off, can have escalating or de-escalating salaries year over year

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

FWIW, Jake Fischer (second-tier rumormonger, but not nothing) suggests Coby coming back for 'north of' $30M for three seasons

https://sports.yahoo.com/2023-nba-free-agency-should-we-be-preparing-for-james-harden-to-end-up-with-the-clippers-171832820.html

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H_Vaughn's avatar

Yeah. I saw that right after I posted as well. You're probably close to spot on at the $13M number. Seems foolish of AK to give him anything beyond the QO. Like you say, he sucks at the margins.

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

Jake Fischer's latest also mentions Bulls as a Harden destination, but simply because they have high-priced players, not due to any reported interest between the Bulls or Harden

a DeMar-for-Harden move would be the rare DDR idea I'd endorse, but Harden after trade kicker makes $12M more and also Philly probably needs more assets. I think Philly would do Harden for DeRozan+Caruso, but man the Bulls defense and vibes would go in the toilet. I suppose that doesn't matter when DDR's veteran leadership and Caruso's all-defense selection got you all the way to 10th place

LaVine-for-Harden would align Bulls for big reset in 2024 (except Vuc lol) while remaining competitive, but iffy on-court fit. Trading both DDR+LaVine for Harden would be treating LaVine as negative salary, which I don't think the Bulls agree with

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MikeDC's avatar

I've been trying to noodle out how to work this, because I actually think the Sixers are one of the few places where LaVine is a legitimately good fit. I wonder if they'd just do a separate deal:

1. Bulls trade LaVine for Maxey and Harris

2. Clippers trade ??? would have to be either Kawhi or PG, right ??? for Harden? (Throw in RoCo and PJ Tucker swap.

Bulls

G- Maxey

G- Coby, Caruso

F- DeMar, Pat

F- Harris

C- Vuc

Not 100% terrible, and younger.

Sixers

G- Melton

G- Zach

F- PG

F- RoCo

C- Embiid

Clippers

G-?Westbrook?, Bones?

G- Harden, Powell

F- Kawhi

F- Batum, Morris, Tucker

C- Zubac

I think Harden for PG is interesting... PG's a better defender, but does it matter if he's always hurt?

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MikeDC's avatar

Just for the record, I wouldn't do that Zach trade if I'm the Sixers. Maxey is 22 and probably almost as good as Zach is now. Harris is a solid starter. But if they just love Zach and buy into him being a true "2nd best player on a championship team" level thing, pairing him up with Embiid is about the most ideal possible situation.

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Gorditadogg's avatar

Yeah, Sixers like Maxey. DDR and stuff for Harden has potential, especially in the regular season. We should be able to get to the playoffs and then we will get to watch Harden seize up. I think it would be an improvement.

Zach is a good player on a good contract, there should be no rush to trade him away. Keep him a year and see what happens. He will be worth more next year.

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MikeDC's avatar

I think the DDR for Harden idea has no chance at all. Morey isnt even remotely contemplating DDR.

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Gorditadogg's avatar

That's good to know. Who did he tell you he is considering.

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MikeDC's avatar

Your mom!

Nah. That's crazy. He wouldn't tell me anything... he's too busy with your mom to talk to me.

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Punchandjudy's avatar

It really is frustrating that Zachs camp has a beef with NYK, cause that seems to be the team that would be willing to take him.

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

I don't think AK is, like, horse-trading with player agents. But he IS lazy.

So here are some clients repped by Vuc's (very good) agent Bill Duffy, a list that also includes Goran Dragic and Patrick Beverley hmmm

Aaron Holiday

Grant Williams

Josh Richardson

Jalen McDaniels

Jaxson Hayes

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Bullini's avatar

Nice thinking, we’ll sign at least one of these guys

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MikeDC's avatar

After the Vuc deal, Duffy owes us signing like, some all star, not fucking Josh Richardson

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

Vuc is an all star, very special player for us

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MikeDC's avatar

Dislike

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GeorgiaPeachy's avatar

Are we 100% sure AKME knows the Bulls need a point guard not already in the building?

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st8bull's avatar

I could see this team going into the tax getting the 8th seed and then using that as a reason to not go into the tax again for the next 20 years

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Bullini's avatar

Could we trade DeRozan for S&T Kuzma? 4/80 and then they include Wright for salary match.

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Mike's avatar

I’m a huge Jevon Carter fan. I think could be a solid starting PG for the Bulls.

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Wake's avatar

I'm surprised the Bucks let him walk, their PG depth isn't looking good. I guess Pat Bev is pretty much out now. I wonder how this will affect Ayo.

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Stay Chisel's avatar

Starting PG on the Bulls and backup PG anywhere else.

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Mike's avatar

Well when they have to pay Lonzo to not play. You have to work with what you got. It’s Carter or Coby

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MikeDC's avatar

I think he's ok, but

1. He's not actually a PG. He's a 6'1" guy, so he's called a PG, but he seems pretty far behind Coby, Caruso, and pretty much everyone when it comes to actually hitting guys in stride and running a consistent PnR.

2. He's a good defender for a little guy, we've seen two years in a row that he's not a playoff player at all.

What he is, and this is good, is a tremendous spot up shooter. In the context of the Bulls, where you've got Zach, DeMar, Vuc, and Coby who are all willing passers that have some ability to create space for a shooter, this is a godsend. Having him out there instead of Ayo or Caruso will create a lot of space and gravity and make the offense better. Defensively, they'll be able to patch over the flaws in the regular season mostly.

And the price is pretty reasonable.

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TheMoon's avatar

I like the pick up, and I thought Bud really fucked up not playing him more, but i don't think it moves the needle too much for the Bulls shooting. He's good at spot-ups, but the Bulls shooting issues are only partially about not having enough guys who shoot.

Because, the thing is, the Bulls don't even get enough out of the shooters they have. Like, Zach takes 7.1 per36. That he's so far from like 10 per36 is preposterous. You're just leaving money on the table. Vuc and Patrick each take 4.5 per36. This is also ludicrous.

Why the underperformance? It's a shot creation problem as much as it is a shooting problem. As long as their creators are bad at the drive and kick game (and willing to pass or not, they aren't good at the drive and kick game) their team shooting will always be less than the sum of the players' skills.

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MikeDC's avatar

I've thought about this, and while I think it's partly right, I've come to the conclusion a lot of it is, for some crazy reason, by design. How much is attributable to inability to drive and kick and how much is unwillingness I can't say, but I think it's roughly 50/50.

Why? DeMar isn't the best at this, but if you look at what he did with the Spurs, Mills (9.2), Derrick White (8.2) and Rudy Gay (7.4) were all shooting more 3PA/36 than any Bull. Lonnie Walker (6.4) and rookie Vassell (5.1) were willing shooters who would be major shooters by Bulls standards.

What that's telling me is DeMar, at least, is good enough at creating to be generating more 3s than he does (yes, a counterpoint is that the Spurs didn't take a lot of 3s total, but I think this is largely attributable to Playing lots of DeMar/Poeltl/Murray combos. Surround DeMar with shooters, and he's capable of getting them shots.

Also, the Zach/Lauri/Coby triumvirate seemed to get up more shots under both Donovan and Egg head both.

All that leads me to question what the hell is really going on. Once the Bulls made the Vuc trade, it seems like the kind of philosophically deemphasized the 3.

Again, I'm not saying your point is wrong. I agree with it! But I think there's an element of the Bulls just deciding that threes weren't cool. If they'd prioritized it, Zach would have taken more, Coby would have played more, and maybe they would have kept guys like Troy Brown and maybe even Matt Thomas

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TheMoon's avatar

I think that team actually re-enforces my point, actually. If I remember them correctly, they pretty much won games that year because their bench kicked the christ out of everyone. And the bench played a totally distinct style from the starters, too. They were basically doing their version of the Quinn Snyder drive and kick blender. Sometimes with Gay as the small ball 5. Sometimes with Poeltl crashing the rim and making plays off the roll like Gobert.

So while I don't have the tools to prove it, I would bet that if you looked at those guys' 3-point attempt rate across different lineups, their rates with Demar would be relatively lower than their rates without him.

That of course invites the question: okay, so why didn't the starters ape the more successful bench. And with Demar it seems likely that he either just didn't want to or that he couldn't. Maybe both.

And I don't mean to suggest that Demar is a jerk or doesn't want to win. He seems like a great guy and teammate. But Demar is a very stylistic player. And I think that for guys who have very stylistic games, playing in that style is a huge determinant of their comfort level. So it's much harder for them to be flexible.

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MikeDC's avatar

I looked at the Spurs lineups, and to the extent I can tell, I think you're right.

That being said, I still think the Bulls are capable of better. Small sample size, but:

Zach/DeMar/Vuc

+ Pat & Coby -> 24.8 3pa/36

+ Caruso & Coby -> 28.1 3pa/36

League average was 24.8. The prior year, with Lonzo, I think the lineups were average to somewhat above avg.

I have the unpopular opinion that the Bulls were most likely better off just having Coby replace Lonzo's volume 3 point shooting instead of having Ayo largely replace Lonzo's D. As it turned out, I think the former was the more important think we missed.

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Stay Chisel's avatar

Jevon Carter checks out: house in the area and agent is Mark Bartelstein. Between this and the Coby deal, the Bulls are done for free agency. See everyone next year!

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Punchandjudy's avatar

wow um rockets

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