a lot of coverage elsewhere has focused on luck, clutch, and close wins as a valuable skill intentionally created by this FO rather than being a season-by-season variable. and part of me has thought, maybe my hater level is tuned too high, what if luck does get them somewhere this spring?
but i think any regular season luck comes from the bulls best players putting in 40 minutes per night, which will be cancelled out once other playoff teams start to shorten their rotations by choice (good roster construction) rather than necessity (this mess).
"also it is likely in both cases of the absences of LaVine and Williams that replacing those minutes simply with more from White, Dosunmu, and Caruso has been the opposite of a detriment"
I think this hits the nail on the head. While the Bulls have had a lot of injuries this year, thankfully most of those injuries have been to players who don't necessarily make that big of a difference despite playing fairly heavy minutes (Zach and Pat).
And since the back half of the roster is so bad, instead of relying on those guys a lot more, Billy has transferred most of those minutes to Coby, Ayo, Caruso and DeMar who are arguably the most impactful players on this team. In a sense, the Bulls may actually be getting more impactful minutes every game since Zach and Pat went down than they were at the beginning of the season when everyone was healthy.
The obvious downside to this is the toll that those minutes are taking on this team. DeMar is some sort of freak of nature and seems to be able to handle the minutes just fine, but I have to believe father time will catch up eventually. Coby and AC have been battling injuries all season despite Coby just starting to miss games for the first time over the last week or so.
With the way this team has been chugging along lately, I wouldn't be surprised if they sneak into the playoffs. Unfortunately for them, it'll be against the Celtics who I'm sure are cruising their way to the postseason. Billy has basically been playing a playoff rotation for the past few months now. These guys are going to be dead by postseason. I guess Jerry doesn't really care though as long as he gets that sweet, sweet playoff revenue.
Looking at Basketball Reference’s playoff predictor, the Bulls have sewn up their spot in the play-in tournament. They currently have a 99.8% chance of making it with 0.1% of being in the top 6 and a 0.1% chance of not making it all. You can’t even bet them to make the play-in tournament on most of not all online sports books. They also have an over 90% chance of being the 9 seed guaranteeing Jerry at least one extra game of ticket revenue.
Tough to get too excited by this team but I am at least able to appreciate Coby's and Ayo's respective ascensions. I don't put too much stock in the clutch stuff but it probably is good experience for the younger players. Lord knows they won't be having tons of actual playoff games to replicate these pressure situations.
This is a good NBA season and I refuse to waste time on a team aspiring to being a sparring partner for a legit contender. I don't see anything that makes me think the Bulls can scare anyone in the playoffs and it's delusional to believe it.
Out West, I can seriously make an argument for any of 8 or 9 teams making it to the Finals. That is CRAZY. The #1 seed might have to face Lebron+AD, Steph Curry, Luka+Kyrie or Kevin Durant+Booker in the first round. That should be fucking phenomenal to watch and you know, those top seeds will have to work hard even in a 5 or 6 game opening series.
The East is by far less interesting (there's more distance between Boston & the Bucks - 10 games - than there is between the West's #1 and #8 seed!) but you can't count out Miami ever, Halliburton seems to have some Big Game gameyness and how the fuck are the Magic peaking? I had them fading and was sure they would (I don't think I'd actually want to watch them play though.)
On the other hand, the Bulls currently have the best record over their last 10 of the bottom 10 teams in the East. They're a blazing... 6-4. Mediocrity Forever!
What's funny is that even the worst teams in the West still have some shit going for them. I'd watch Rockets/Jazz/Spurs anytime. The dregs of the East are just putrid.
The only thing marginally impressive to me is the Bulls are doing this with $69M of salary sitting on the bench in street clothes; essentially they are down three starters and on the precipice of a .500 record. I appreciate that their absences have allowed Ayo and Coby to step up their games and I wonder if the Bulls would have a better record with a full squad.
That said, ownership and management have told me they dont care about building a contender - in their words and their actions. In setting their goals to be mid, they are quite content to congratulate themselves on reaching them. There is literally no point to celebrating a play-in appearance and as noted in other commentary, they are too good to miss them altogether.
Frankly, we used to look forward to the offseason for a glimmer of hope of that free agency could bring us that M2GWCDAS or BlogaBron - wake me when this front office makes another move of consequence or the Reinsdorfs sell the team...
While I don’t disagree with the overall premise of this, I do have to push back against the notion that the bulls “have no future” line of thinking. As it stands the bulls are as a matter of fact, playing up to six guys who are 24 years or younger when healthy. (3 of which in key roles). Thats plenty future for me. They are one of the more younger teams in the league when you get past the big 3, and a nifty transaction at some point to rid themselves of Lavine’s contract gives them that much more upward mobility. The Bulls moving forward need one of trailer things to fall their way… hit big time on their immediate next draft pick, or sign a major FA with Lavine’s slot opened and THEY BACK.
It's good that they're not completely embarrassing. I wish it was in a more sustainable way so I had more belief in the team and hope going into a game than just the relief that they "pulled out another one." In most respects*, it is better to win than lose.
I can't even complain that "I don't know what their direction even is." Because it is clearly just "be good enough to not be the among the worst in the league." Most people won't accept that as AKME's goal - even though they've essentially said that several times - because they won't want to accept that they're cheering for a team that really doesn't care to be better than that.
*other than winning these games just reaffirms AKME and Reinsdorf in their stance of being good enough, and there will be no introspection by the ownership on if AKME is the right tandem and certainly no reflection from AKME if they need to change anything.
They're just the Wrong Clutch games! 13/22 "should" translate to a better than 60% w/l record, the difference between a good playoff spot and a good tanking percentage - top 9 teams now are better than 600, worst 8 teams below .400, and 14 in between... Perhaps our Really Bad Losses are the source? Maybe our clutch games "should" be against decent teams, not bad ones, like Portland recently for example...
a lot of coverage elsewhere has focused on luck, clutch, and close wins as a valuable skill intentionally created by this FO rather than being a season-by-season variable. and part of me has thought, maybe my hater level is tuned too high, what if luck does get them somewhere this spring?
but i think any regular season luck comes from the bulls best players putting in 40 minutes per night, which will be cancelled out once other playoff teams start to shorten their rotations by choice (good roster construction) rather than necessity (this mess).
"also it is likely in both cases of the absences of LaVine and Williams that replacing those minutes simply with more from White, Dosunmu, and Caruso has been the opposite of a detriment"
I think this hits the nail on the head. While the Bulls have had a lot of injuries this year, thankfully most of those injuries have been to players who don't necessarily make that big of a difference despite playing fairly heavy minutes (Zach and Pat).
And since the back half of the roster is so bad, instead of relying on those guys a lot more, Billy has transferred most of those minutes to Coby, Ayo, Caruso and DeMar who are arguably the most impactful players on this team. In a sense, the Bulls may actually be getting more impactful minutes every game since Zach and Pat went down than they were at the beginning of the season when everyone was healthy.
The obvious downside to this is the toll that those minutes are taking on this team. DeMar is some sort of freak of nature and seems to be able to handle the minutes just fine, but I have to believe father time will catch up eventually. Coby and AC have been battling injuries all season despite Coby just starting to miss games for the first time over the last week or so.
With the way this team has been chugging along lately, I wouldn't be surprised if they sneak into the playoffs. Unfortunately for them, it'll be against the Celtics who I'm sure are cruising their way to the postseason. Billy has basically been playing a playoff rotation for the past few months now. These guys are going to be dead by postseason. I guess Jerry doesn't really care though as long as he gets that sweet, sweet playoff revenue.
Looking at Basketball Reference’s playoff predictor, the Bulls have sewn up their spot in the play-in tournament. They currently have a 99.8% chance of making it with 0.1% of being in the top 6 and a 0.1% chance of not making it all. You can’t even bet them to make the play-in tournament on most of not all online sports books. They also have an over 90% chance of being the 9 seed guaranteeing Jerry at least one extra game of ticket revenue.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html
Tough to get too excited by this team but I am at least able to appreciate Coby's and Ayo's respective ascensions. I don't put too much stock in the clutch stuff but it probably is good experience for the younger players. Lord knows they won't be having tons of actual playoff games to replicate these pressure situations.
This is a good NBA season and I refuse to waste time on a team aspiring to being a sparring partner for a legit contender. I don't see anything that makes me think the Bulls can scare anyone in the playoffs and it's delusional to believe it.
Out West, I can seriously make an argument for any of 8 or 9 teams making it to the Finals. That is CRAZY. The #1 seed might have to face Lebron+AD, Steph Curry, Luka+Kyrie or Kevin Durant+Booker in the first round. That should be fucking phenomenal to watch and you know, those top seeds will have to work hard even in a 5 or 6 game opening series.
The East is by far less interesting (there's more distance between Boston & the Bucks - 10 games - than there is between the West's #1 and #8 seed!) but you can't count out Miami ever, Halliburton seems to have some Big Game gameyness and how the fuck are the Magic peaking? I had them fading and was sure they would (I don't think I'd actually want to watch them play though.)
On the other hand, the Bulls currently have the best record over their last 10 of the bottom 10 teams in the East. They're a blazing... 6-4. Mediocrity Forever!
What's funny is that even the worst teams in the West still have some shit going for them. I'd watch Rockets/Jazz/Spurs anytime. The dregs of the East are just putrid.
The only thing marginally impressive to me is the Bulls are doing this with $69M of salary sitting on the bench in street clothes; essentially they are down three starters and on the precipice of a .500 record. I appreciate that their absences have allowed Ayo and Coby to step up their games and I wonder if the Bulls would have a better record with a full squad.
That said, ownership and management have told me they dont care about building a contender - in their words and their actions. In setting their goals to be mid, they are quite content to congratulate themselves on reaching them. There is literally no point to celebrating a play-in appearance and as noted in other commentary, they are too good to miss them altogether.
Frankly, we used to look forward to the offseason for a glimmer of hope of that free agency could bring us that M2GWCDAS or BlogaBron - wake me when this front office makes another move of consequence or the Reinsdorfs sell the team...
While I don’t disagree with the overall premise of this, I do have to push back against the notion that the bulls “have no future” line of thinking. As it stands the bulls are as a matter of fact, playing up to six guys who are 24 years or younger when healthy. (3 of which in key roles). Thats plenty future for me. They are one of the more younger teams in the league when you get past the big 3, and a nifty transaction at some point to rid themselves of Lavine’s contract gives them that much more upward mobility. The Bulls moving forward need one of trailer things to fall their way… hit big time on their immediate next draft pick, or sign a major FA with Lavine’s slot opened and THEY BACK.
It's good that they're not completely embarrassing. I wish it was in a more sustainable way so I had more belief in the team and hope going into a game than just the relief that they "pulled out another one." In most respects*, it is better to win than lose.
I can't even complain that "I don't know what their direction even is." Because it is clearly just "be good enough to not be the among the worst in the league." Most people won't accept that as AKME's goal - even though they've essentially said that several times - because they won't want to accept that they're cheering for a team that really doesn't care to be better than that.
*other than winning these games just reaffirms AKME and Reinsdorf in their stance of being good enough, and there will be no introspection by the ownership on if AKME is the right tandem and certainly no reflection from AKME if they need to change anything.
They're just the Wrong Clutch games! 13/22 "should" translate to a better than 60% w/l record, the difference between a good playoff spot and a good tanking percentage - top 9 teams now are better than 600, worst 8 teams below .400, and 14 in between... Perhaps our Really Bad Losses are the source? Maybe our clutch games "should" be against decent teams, not bad ones, like Portland recently for example...