a lot of coverage elsewhere has focused on luck, clutch, and close wins as a valuable skill intentionally created by this FO rather than being a season-by-season variable. and part of me has thought, maybe my hater level is tuned too high, what if luck does get them somewhere this spring?
but i think any regular season luck comes from the bulls best players putting in 40 minutes per night, which will be cancelled out once other playoff teams start to shorten their rotations by choice (good roster construction) rather than necessity (this mess).
It's definitely not a skill created by this FO. The team has been the exact same for three years. They were really clutch two years ago but terrible in the clutch last year. This year they're clutch again. It's clear that it's all just luck and the Bulls seem to be on the good side of it currently.
As you say though, most of that "luck" is because of how many minutes the Bulls few good players are playing, and that advantage will be minimized in the playoffs (if they make it).
i don't think it's ALL luck, because DeMar is a pretty uniquely clutch player given his ability to control possessions/get to this spots in these situations. what is mostly luck is just how bad opponents have been in these situations. the Bulls DRtg being like 20 points better in the clutch in a pretty sizable sample size at this point is pretty fortunate, especially when you look at just how bad teams are shooting from 3 in these situations. while a guy like Caruso is also uniquely helpful in these situations, teams are just often melting down/bricking shots when it really counts.
like last night the Blazers went up 3 and then missed like their last 6 shots, with most of them being Simons. the Jazz missed multiple good lucks from 3 in that game, including on the final possession. the Pacers missed multiple dagger 3 opportunities. plus there's the real fluky stuff like the DeMar missed free throw working out with seconds left and a superstar like Donovan Mitchell missing a game-sealing free throw turning into DeMar getting fouled on a 3 and making all 3 free throws to force another OT.
the Bulls have been legit awesome in the clutch this season thanks to DeMar, Coby and probably lack of Zach, but it's clear they're also INCREDIBLY fortunate given just how much stuff is going their way in these games.
a few other crazy clutch things i stumbled across is the Bulls are 6-0 since the All-Star break in games that have had a 1-point point differential in the final minute. literally every legit toss-up game has gone their way.
and since Zach got hurt initially, the Bulls are 13-9 in clutch games in which they've been behind or tied at some point. that's the best win% in the NBA over that span and only 2 other teams are even over 50% win percentage in these situations. https://twitter.com/Bulls_Jay/status/1770122518092792289
You're definitely right, Jason. I shouldn't have said "it's all just luck" because it's not. I was generalizing more than anything. As I said in my second paragraph above, a lot of the "luck" also has to do with our good players doing good things late in games (i.e. DeRozan and Caruso).
My point was that with the same exact players over the past three seasons, we've had two really good clutch seasons and one really bad clutch season. So it's not just that we have awesome clutch players and it's okay to have a mediocre team that can just hang in there until the end when DeMar will just take over. That works sometimes but it also doesn't work plenty of times too.
yep and you're totally right about the playoff thing. like they could get through the play-in fine but against the Celtics they will just get hammered since they'll be locked in and playing their guys big minutes, and the same would be true of the Bucks as well even though the Bulls have generally played them okay.
think the team/players should be lauded for competing in these games and DeMar/Coby/Ayo/Caruso are really doing some great stuff but it's def not sign of a good team overall based on the full numbers. the team should probably be like 3 or 4 games worse lol
That's what is so frustrating about this team. I love watching DeMar, Coby, Ayo and AC play. I actually like most of the guys on this team. I just like winning and a clear vision for winning more than individual players and the Bulls don't have that. So while I can appreciate watching some of these guys play, I just can't ever shake the bigger picture of this team having zero vision of what it's trying to do.
"also it is likely in both cases of the absences of LaVine and Williams that replacing those minutes simply with more from White, Dosunmu, and Caruso has been the opposite of a detriment"
I think this hits the nail on the head. While the Bulls have had a lot of injuries this year, thankfully most of those injuries have been to players who don't necessarily make that big of a difference despite playing fairly heavy minutes (Zach and Pat).
And since the back half of the roster is so bad, instead of relying on those guys a lot more, Billy has transferred most of those minutes to Coby, Ayo, Caruso and DeMar who are arguably the most impactful players on this team. In a sense, the Bulls may actually be getting more impactful minutes every game since Zach and Pat went down than they were at the beginning of the season when everyone was healthy.
The obvious downside to this is the toll that those minutes are taking on this team. DeMar is some sort of freak of nature and seems to be able to handle the minutes just fine, but I have to believe father time will catch up eventually. Coby and AC have been battling injuries all season despite Coby just starting to miss games for the first time over the last week or so.
With the way this team has been chugging along lately, I wouldn't be surprised if they sneak into the playoffs. Unfortunately for them, it'll be against the Celtics who I'm sure are cruising their way to the postseason. Billy has basically been playing a playoff rotation for the past few months now. These guys are going to be dead by postseason. I guess Jerry doesn't really care though as long as he gets that sweet, sweet playoff revenue.
Looking at Basketball Reference’s playoff predictor, the Bulls have sewn up their spot in the play-in tournament. They currently have a 99.8% chance of making it with 0.1% of being in the top 6 and a 0.1% chance of not making it all. You can’t even bet them to make the play-in tournament on most of not all online sports books. They also have an over 90% chance of being the 9 seed guaranteeing Jerry at least one extra game of ticket revenue.
Tough to get too excited by this team but I am at least able to appreciate Coby's and Ayo's respective ascensions. I don't put too much stock in the clutch stuff but it probably is good experience for the younger players. Lord knows they won't be having tons of actual playoff games to replicate these pressure situations.
I'd far rather be the Rockets, Spurs, Thunder or Magic. All teams who have purposefully lost games in the recent past (plus Dallas!). Sure, Detroit sucks and hasn't gotten anything for it. Washington is not tanking, they just suck. Memphis has gone into full tank mode this year will be rewarded to some degree for it.
The Bulls were below average/mediocre last year with a very disappointing future outlook. This year, they are also below average and mediocre with a very disappointing future outlook. Next year, they will likely also be below average and mediocre with... a disappointing (not very?) future outlook.
That's how long Houston tanked. That's how long OKC sucked. It's likely how long the Spurs will suck assuming they continue to go young next year. And they are all far better positioned for a future than the Bulls. Tanking is still a good strategy. It's not foolproof, but as the fools of the Bulls front office have demonstrated, neither is anti-tanking.
I’m on the fence as far as tanking goes, but the Bulls version of tanking where they don’t stockpile draft picks and never draft higher than #7 does kinda suck.
I keep going back and forth on this. On the one hand, they could subject us to even less watchable basketball only to end up with the next Chandler Hutchison. On the other hand, aiming low to get a play-in berth in perpetuity makes me want to fire myself into the sun.
Tanking is a gamble and to be remotely successful at it you have to 100% commit to being truly terrible for at least two or three years. Even when the Bulls were "tanking", they were never truly terrible. Likely because Jerry won't allow them to be truly terrible for fear that he'll lose a little money for a few years.
So for me, I'd be happy if this team committed to fully tanking for a few years. Unfortunately I know they wouldn't fully commit to it, so I'd rather see them be mediocre and maybe luck into a good player than to do another half-hearted tank that results in absolutely nothing.
This is a good NBA season and I refuse to waste time on a team aspiring to being a sparring partner for a legit contender. I don't see anything that makes me think the Bulls can scare anyone in the playoffs and it's delusional to believe it.
Out West, I can seriously make an argument for any of 8 or 9 teams making it to the Finals. That is CRAZY. The #1 seed might have to face Lebron+AD, Steph Curry, Luka+Kyrie or Kevin Durant+Booker in the first round. That should be fucking phenomenal to watch and you know, those top seeds will have to work hard even in a 5 or 6 game opening series.
The East is by far less interesting (there's more distance between Boston & the Bucks - 10 games - than there is between the West's #1 and #8 seed!) but you can't count out Miami ever, Halliburton seems to have some Big Game gameyness and how the fuck are the Magic peaking? I had them fading and was sure they would (I don't think I'd actually want to watch them play though.)
On the other hand, the Bulls currently have the best record over their last 10 of the bottom 10 teams in the East. They're a blazing... 6-4. Mediocrity Forever!
What's funny is that even the worst teams in the West still have some shit going for them. I'd watch Rockets/Jazz/Spurs anytime. The dregs of the East are just putrid.
I have a more modest proposal, especially given somewhat-legit desire to have 'rivalries', to just lock in 1-6 the way it is and the play-in is then conference agnostic. Bulls should have to play at Golden State instead of hosting the Hawks
The only thing marginally impressive to me is the Bulls are doing this with $69M of salary sitting on the bench in street clothes; essentially they are down three starters and on the precipice of a .500 record. I appreciate that their absences have allowed Ayo and Coby to step up their games and I wonder if the Bulls would have a better record with a full squad.
That said, ownership and management have told me they dont care about building a contender - in their words and their actions. In setting their goals to be mid, they are quite content to congratulate themselves on reaching them. There is literally no point to celebrating a play-in appearance and as noted in other commentary, they are too good to miss them altogether.
Frankly, we used to look forward to the offseason for a glimmer of hope of that free agency could bring us that M2GWCDAS or BlogaBron - wake me when this front office makes another move of consequence or the Reinsdorfs sell the team...
all that cash sitting on the sidelines underlines how bad the management of this roster is. Horrible. "Assets" leaking all of their value into the cracks in the floor before the team will have yet another opportunity to move on from them.
While I don’t disagree with the overall premise of this, I do have to push back against the notion that the bulls “have no future” line of thinking. As it stands the bulls are as a matter of fact, playing up to six guys who are 24 years or younger when healthy. (3 of which in key roles). Thats plenty future for me. They are one of the more younger teams in the league when you get past the big 3, and a nifty transaction at some point to rid themselves of Lavine’s contract gives them that much more upward mobility. The Bulls moving forward need one of trailer things to fall their way… hit big time on their immediate next draft pick, or sign a major FA with Lavine’s slot opened and THEY BACK.
Eh, while not the "team-killing" offense that LaVine can be, I put White in that same tier. A fringe All Star who will probably make 1-3 All Star Games in their career. An absolutely valuable player but not one that will change the trajectory of the franchise. You talk about how young the team is outside of the Big 3, but the only ones who are any good are White, Ayo, and the as-yet unrealized potential of Patrick Williams.
Getting the most minutes are the team: DeRozan (34), Vucevic (33), Caruso (29), LaVine (28), Drummond (30), Carter (28), and Craig (33), are 7 of the Top 10 in Minutes played (yes, LaVine and Williams are still there. The only other 3 are the aforementioned White, Ayo, and Williams. They are definitely NOT having up to 6 guys 24 and under playing minutes "when healthy".
but do you see White getting a max contract at any point? The way he is playing now, no way. Now his current contract looks great because of the way he stepped it up, but I don't see him playing himself into a max contract anytime soon. And then being like Lavine lol.
Max contract? No, but a huge contract? Not at this exact level, but at 24/25, he should continue to improve over the next two years. If he's averaging 22-25 ppg on the same efficiency? I think he'll get $30-$35 million.
Coby is an asset on a great bargain contract who should continnue to get better. I agree he will probably remain in the fringe All Star level, but I'm not sure I understand the point you are trying to make by comparing him to Lavine here. As a young piece, he is very valuable now if the team intends to build something after jettisoning some scrap.
The Lavine point is that he's a good offensive player but not great. He's a positive contributor to a team, absolutely, and positively affects winning. But, at least to this point, and what I believe, he's not an elite offensive player. He's not Kyrie or Doncic (okay, no one is) or Devin Booker or Ja Morant or Jalen Brunson. Players who aren't good defensively but aren't terrible, but their offense is so elite that it overcomes that.
To me, he's more like a D'Angelo Russell or Zach LaVine. Guys who show all the skills of being very good offensive players, but aren't quite in that top tier, and then whose defense brings down their overall value to a level even lower.
Those players are good, but they often get overpaid. White did not because he was not at the level last year. (Neither did Zach LaVine in his first post-rookie contract, though he got more than White, of course.) My point is that those offense-first but non-elite players get paid well, and it can end up hurting overall team development.
CJ McCollum is another one. Great players to have on your team if you have the right team around them. But, like LaVine, they are ideal as a sometimes 2nd, mostly 3rd option on offense with a defensive team around them. If White improves just incrementally from here (likely), he'll be getting $30-$35 million on his next contract.
They need to get the rest of the team around him before that, while they still have him on this contract.
Ayo is in his 3rd season, White is in his 5th while Williams is in his 4th. Are we expecting the same quality of production from guys in their 1st and 2nd years of exp of those 6 players that I’m pointing to? My point is simply that there are 6 guys on this roster right now who are young and ‘playing’. Thats a future. We can argue how good that future is in the long run, but its a future nonetheless and more importantly, its one that allows the Bulls to add multiple key pieces in addition to via FA if they so choose to do so in the next few years because of how flexible contract wise it is right now.
It's a "when healthy" part that doesn't make sense to me, unless you were just referring to Patrick Williams. Because only 3 of the guys you are referring to played when the team was fully healthy. The other 3 are only getting playing time because of injuries to LaVine and Williams.
It's good that they're not completely embarrassing. I wish it was in a more sustainable way so I had more belief in the team and hope going into a game than just the relief that they "pulled out another one." In most respects*, it is better to win than lose.
I can't even complain that "I don't know what their direction even is." Because it is clearly just "be good enough to not be the among the worst in the league." Most people won't accept that as AKME's goal - even though they've essentially said that several times - because they won't want to accept that they're cheering for a team that really doesn't care to be better than that.
*other than winning these games just reaffirms AKME and Reinsdorf in their stance of being good enough, and there will be no introspection by the ownership on if AKME is the right tandem and certainly no reflection from AKME if they need to change anything.
They're just the Wrong Clutch games! 13/22 "should" translate to a better than 60% w/l record, the difference between a good playoff spot and a good tanking percentage - top 9 teams now are better than 600, worst 8 teams below .400, and 14 in between... Perhaps our Really Bad Losses are the source? Maybe our clutch games "should" be against decent teams, not bad ones, like Portland recently for example...
Well it's also stuff like losing TWICE to the Pistons! and the nets. If you're a good team you gotta beat the teams you should beat and not be losing multiple times to shit teams below you in the standings.
while the Pistons losses were bad, honestly the Bulls have generally been pretty good at bum-slaying (thanks in large part to their clutch stuff). they're 20-6 against teams below .500 and 14-29 against teams .500 and above. Last year they were 19-12 against teams below .500 and 21-30 against teams .500 and above.
a lot of coverage elsewhere has focused on luck, clutch, and close wins as a valuable skill intentionally created by this FO rather than being a season-by-season variable. and part of me has thought, maybe my hater level is tuned too high, what if luck does get them somewhere this spring?
but i think any regular season luck comes from the bulls best players putting in 40 minutes per night, which will be cancelled out once other playoff teams start to shorten their rotations by choice (good roster construction) rather than necessity (this mess).
It's definitely not a skill created by this FO. The team has been the exact same for three years. They were really clutch two years ago but terrible in the clutch last year. This year they're clutch again. It's clear that it's all just luck and the Bulls seem to be on the good side of it currently.
As you say though, most of that "luck" is because of how many minutes the Bulls few good players are playing, and that advantage will be minimized in the playoffs (if they make it).
i don't think it's ALL luck, because DeMar is a pretty uniquely clutch player given his ability to control possessions/get to this spots in these situations. what is mostly luck is just how bad opponents have been in these situations. the Bulls DRtg being like 20 points better in the clutch in a pretty sizable sample size at this point is pretty fortunate, especially when you look at just how bad teams are shooting from 3 in these situations. while a guy like Caruso is also uniquely helpful in these situations, teams are just often melting down/bricking shots when it really counts.
like last night the Blazers went up 3 and then missed like their last 6 shots, with most of them being Simons. the Jazz missed multiple good lucks from 3 in that game, including on the final possession. the Pacers missed multiple dagger 3 opportunities. plus there's the real fluky stuff like the DeMar missed free throw working out with seconds left and a superstar like Donovan Mitchell missing a game-sealing free throw turning into DeMar getting fouled on a 3 and making all 3 free throws to force another OT.
the Bulls have been legit awesome in the clutch this season thanks to DeMar, Coby and probably lack of Zach, but it's clear they're also INCREDIBLY fortunate given just how much stuff is going their way in these games.
a few other crazy clutch things i stumbled across is the Bulls are 6-0 since the All-Star break in games that have had a 1-point point differential in the final minute. literally every legit toss-up game has gone their way.
and since Zach got hurt initially, the Bulls are 13-9 in clutch games in which they've been behind or tied at some point. that's the best win% in the NBA over that span and only 2 other teams are even over 50% win percentage in these situations. https://twitter.com/Bulls_Jay/status/1770122518092792289
there is some wild outlier stuff going on lol
You're definitely right, Jason. I shouldn't have said "it's all just luck" because it's not. I was generalizing more than anything. As I said in my second paragraph above, a lot of the "luck" also has to do with our good players doing good things late in games (i.e. DeRozan and Caruso).
My point was that with the same exact players over the past three seasons, we've had two really good clutch seasons and one really bad clutch season. So it's not just that we have awesome clutch players and it's okay to have a mediocre team that can just hang in there until the end when DeMar will just take over. That works sometimes but it also doesn't work plenty of times too.
yep and you're totally right about the playoff thing. like they could get through the play-in fine but against the Celtics they will just get hammered since they'll be locked in and playing their guys big minutes, and the same would be true of the Bucks as well even though the Bulls have generally played them okay.
think the team/players should be lauded for competing in these games and DeMar/Coby/Ayo/Caruso are really doing some great stuff but it's def not sign of a good team overall based on the full numbers. the team should probably be like 3 or 4 games worse lol
That's what is so frustrating about this team. I love watching DeMar, Coby, Ayo and AC play. I actually like most of the guys on this team. I just like winning and a clear vision for winning more than individual players and the Bulls don't have that. So while I can appreciate watching some of these guys play, I just can't ever shake the bigger picture of this team having zero vision of what it's trying to do.
"also it is likely in both cases of the absences of LaVine and Williams that replacing those minutes simply with more from White, Dosunmu, and Caruso has been the opposite of a detriment"
I think this hits the nail on the head. While the Bulls have had a lot of injuries this year, thankfully most of those injuries have been to players who don't necessarily make that big of a difference despite playing fairly heavy minutes (Zach and Pat).
And since the back half of the roster is so bad, instead of relying on those guys a lot more, Billy has transferred most of those minutes to Coby, Ayo, Caruso and DeMar who are arguably the most impactful players on this team. In a sense, the Bulls may actually be getting more impactful minutes every game since Zach and Pat went down than they were at the beginning of the season when everyone was healthy.
The obvious downside to this is the toll that those minutes are taking on this team. DeMar is some sort of freak of nature and seems to be able to handle the minutes just fine, but I have to believe father time will catch up eventually. Coby and AC have been battling injuries all season despite Coby just starting to miss games for the first time over the last week or so.
With the way this team has been chugging along lately, I wouldn't be surprised if they sneak into the playoffs. Unfortunately for them, it'll be against the Celtics who I'm sure are cruising their way to the postseason. Billy has basically been playing a playoff rotation for the past few months now. These guys are going to be dead by postseason. I guess Jerry doesn't really care though as long as he gets that sweet, sweet playoff revenue.
Looking at Basketball Reference’s playoff predictor, the Bulls have sewn up their spot in the play-in tournament. They currently have a 99.8% chance of making it with 0.1% of being in the top 6 and a 0.1% chance of not making it all. You can’t even bet them to make the play-in tournament on most of not all online sports books. They also have an over 90% chance of being the 9 seed guaranteeing Jerry at least one extra game of ticket revenue.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html
Tough to get too excited by this team but I am at least able to appreciate Coby's and Ayo's respective ascensions. I don't put too much stock in the clutch stuff but it probably is good experience for the younger players. Lord knows they won't be having tons of actual playoff games to replicate these pressure situations.
yeah as much as 'this' is depressing, it's better than tanking
I still maintain they could've stayed competitive and have playoff-esque atmosphere without Drummond and Caruso
I'd far rather be the Rockets, Spurs, Thunder or Magic. All teams who have purposefully lost games in the recent past (plus Dallas!). Sure, Detroit sucks and hasn't gotten anything for it. Washington is not tanking, they just suck. Memphis has gone into full tank mode this year will be rewarded to some degree for it.
The Bulls were below average/mediocre last year with a very disappointing future outlook. This year, they are also below average and mediocre with a very disappointing future outlook. Next year, they will likely also be below average and mediocre with... a disappointing (not very?) future outlook.
That's how long Houston tanked. That's how long OKC sucked. It's likely how long the Spurs will suck assuming they continue to go young next year. And they are all far better positioned for a future than the Bulls. Tanking is still a good strategy. It's not foolproof, but as the fools of the Bulls front office have demonstrated, neither is anti-tanking.
The anti-tanking crowd is boooooorrrrrrrring.
I’m on the fence as far as tanking goes, but the Bulls version of tanking where they don’t stockpile draft picks and never draft higher than #7 does kinda suck.
I keep going back and forth on this. On the one hand, they could subject us to even less watchable basketball only to end up with the next Chandler Hutchison. On the other hand, aiming low to get a play-in berth in perpetuity makes me want to fire myself into the sun.
Tanking is a gamble and to be remotely successful at it you have to 100% commit to being truly terrible for at least two or three years. Even when the Bulls were "tanking", they were never truly terrible. Likely because Jerry won't allow them to be truly terrible for fear that he'll lose a little money for a few years.
So for me, I'd be happy if this team committed to fully tanking for a few years. Unfortunately I know they wouldn't fully commit to it, so I'd rather see them be mediocre and maybe luck into a good player than to do another half-hearted tank that results in absolutely nothing.
This is a good NBA season and I refuse to waste time on a team aspiring to being a sparring partner for a legit contender. I don't see anything that makes me think the Bulls can scare anyone in the playoffs and it's delusional to believe it.
Out West, I can seriously make an argument for any of 8 or 9 teams making it to the Finals. That is CRAZY. The #1 seed might have to face Lebron+AD, Steph Curry, Luka+Kyrie or Kevin Durant+Booker in the first round. That should be fucking phenomenal to watch and you know, those top seeds will have to work hard even in a 5 or 6 game opening series.
The East is by far less interesting (there's more distance between Boston & the Bucks - 10 games - than there is between the West's #1 and #8 seed!) but you can't count out Miami ever, Halliburton seems to have some Big Game gameyness and how the fuck are the Magic peaking? I had them fading and was sure they would (I don't think I'd actually want to watch them play though.)
On the other hand, the Bulls currently have the best record over their last 10 of the bottom 10 teams in the East. They're a blazing... 6-4. Mediocrity Forever!
What's funny is that even the worst teams in the West still have some shit going for them. I'd watch Rockets/Jazz/Spurs anytime. The dregs of the East are just putrid.
I hate conferences
I have a more modest proposal, especially given somewhat-legit desire to have 'rivalries', to just lock in 1-6 the way it is and the play-in is then conference agnostic. Bulls should have to play at Golden State instead of hosting the Hawks
I watched Wolves/Nuggets last night and was blown away when most of the players could hit open threes and finish layups!
The only thing marginally impressive to me is the Bulls are doing this with $69M of salary sitting on the bench in street clothes; essentially they are down three starters and on the precipice of a .500 record. I appreciate that their absences have allowed Ayo and Coby to step up their games and I wonder if the Bulls would have a better record with a full squad.
That said, ownership and management have told me they dont care about building a contender - in their words and their actions. In setting their goals to be mid, they are quite content to congratulate themselves on reaching them. There is literally no point to celebrating a play-in appearance and as noted in other commentary, they are too good to miss them altogether.
Frankly, we used to look forward to the offseason for a glimmer of hope of that free agency could bring us that M2GWCDAS or BlogaBron - wake me when this front office makes another move of consequence or the Reinsdorfs sell the team...
all that cash sitting on the sidelines underlines how bad the management of this roster is. Horrible. "Assets" leaking all of their value into the cracks in the floor before the team will have yet another opportunity to move on from them.
While I don’t disagree with the overall premise of this, I do have to push back against the notion that the bulls “have no future” line of thinking. As it stands the bulls are as a matter of fact, playing up to six guys who are 24 years or younger when healthy. (3 of which in key roles). Thats plenty future for me. They are one of the more younger teams in the league when you get past the big 3, and a nifty transaction at some point to rid themselves of Lavine’s contract gives them that much more upward mobility. The Bulls moving forward need one of trailer things to fall their way… hit big time on their immediate next draft pick, or sign a major FA with Lavine’s slot opened and THEY BACK.
Eh, while not the "team-killing" offense that LaVine can be, I put White in that same tier. A fringe All Star who will probably make 1-3 All Star Games in their career. An absolutely valuable player but not one that will change the trajectory of the franchise. You talk about how young the team is outside of the Big 3, but the only ones who are any good are White, Ayo, and the as-yet unrealized potential of Patrick Williams.
Getting the most minutes are the team: DeRozan (34), Vucevic (33), Caruso (29), LaVine (28), Drummond (30), Carter (28), and Craig (33), are 7 of the Top 10 in Minutes played (yes, LaVine and Williams are still there. The only other 3 are the aforementioned White, Ayo, and Williams. They are definitely NOT having up to 6 guys 24 and under playing minutes "when healthy".
but do you see White getting a max contract at any point? The way he is playing now, no way. Now his current contract looks great because of the way he stepped it up, but I don't see him playing himself into a max contract anytime soon. And then being like Lavine lol.
What's funny about comparing him to LaVine?
Max contract? No, but a huge contract? Not at this exact level, but at 24/25, he should continue to improve over the next two years. If he's averaging 22-25 ppg on the same efficiency? I think he'll get $30-$35 million.
The lol was really about Lavine's attitude. Coby doesn't strike me as some dude who's going to sulk around after signing a bigger contract.
Coby is an asset on a great bargain contract who should continnue to get better. I agree he will probably remain in the fringe All Star level, but I'm not sure I understand the point you are trying to make by comparing him to Lavine here. As a young piece, he is very valuable now if the team intends to build something after jettisoning some scrap.
The Lavine point is that he's a good offensive player but not great. He's a positive contributor to a team, absolutely, and positively affects winning. But, at least to this point, and what I believe, he's not an elite offensive player. He's not Kyrie or Doncic (okay, no one is) or Devin Booker or Ja Morant or Jalen Brunson. Players who aren't good defensively but aren't terrible, but their offense is so elite that it overcomes that.
To me, he's more like a D'Angelo Russell or Zach LaVine. Guys who show all the skills of being very good offensive players, but aren't quite in that top tier, and then whose defense brings down their overall value to a level even lower.
Those players are good, but they often get overpaid. White did not because he was not at the level last year. (Neither did Zach LaVine in his first post-rookie contract, though he got more than White, of course.) My point is that those offense-first but non-elite players get paid well, and it can end up hurting overall team development.
CJ McCollum is another one. Great players to have on your team if you have the right team around them. But, like LaVine, they are ideal as a sometimes 2nd, mostly 3rd option on offense with a defensive team around them. If White improves just incrementally from here (likely), he'll be getting $30-$35 million on his next contract.
They need to get the rest of the team around him before that, while they still have him on this contract.
Ayo is in his 3rd season, White is in his 5th while Williams is in his 4th. Are we expecting the same quality of production from guys in their 1st and 2nd years of exp of those 6 players that I’m pointing to? My point is simply that there are 6 guys on this roster right now who are young and ‘playing’. Thats a future. We can argue how good that future is in the long run, but its a future nonetheless and more importantly, its one that allows the Bulls to add multiple key pieces in addition to via FA if they so choose to do so in the next few years because of how flexible contract wise it is right now.
It's a "when healthy" part that doesn't make sense to me, unless you were just referring to Patrick Williams. Because only 3 of the guys you are referring to played when the team was fully healthy. The other 3 are only getting playing time because of injuries to LaVine and Williams.
It's good that they're not completely embarrassing. I wish it was in a more sustainable way so I had more belief in the team and hope going into a game than just the relief that they "pulled out another one." In most respects*, it is better to win than lose.
I can't even complain that "I don't know what their direction even is." Because it is clearly just "be good enough to not be the among the worst in the league." Most people won't accept that as AKME's goal - even though they've essentially said that several times - because they won't want to accept that they're cheering for a team that really doesn't care to be better than that.
*other than winning these games just reaffirms AKME and Reinsdorf in their stance of being good enough, and there will be no introspection by the ownership on if AKME is the right tandem and certainly no reflection from AKME if they need to change anything.
They're just the Wrong Clutch games! 13/22 "should" translate to a better than 60% w/l record, the difference between a good playoff spot and a good tanking percentage - top 9 teams now are better than 600, worst 8 teams below .400, and 14 in between... Perhaps our Really Bad Losses are the source? Maybe our clutch games "should" be against decent teams, not bad ones, like Portland recently for example...
Well it's also stuff like losing TWICE to the Pistons! and the nets. If you're a good team you gotta beat the teams you should beat and not be losing multiple times to shit teams below you in the standings.
while the Pistons losses were bad, honestly the Bulls have generally been pretty good at bum-slaying (thanks in large part to their clutch stuff). they're 20-6 against teams below .500 and 14-29 against teams .500 and above. Last year they were 19-12 against teams below .500 and 21-30 against teams .500 and above.
Ominous numbers for a playoff series. We have seen this movie before.