"But he’s not going to get more athletic (and Dwyer details how non-fluid he looks on the court), which kind of caps development you’d wish for with other 23 year olds."
You can easily shit on this deal without saying nonsense like this.
I do think it is more plausible to expect, at age 23, Zach LaVine to become a better defender. Didn't happen but not due to athleticism.
I similarly never had high hopes for Patrick Williams to improve on the ball because he was so unathletic.
yes could Giddey get better defensively, and provide more on-ball shot creation, with experience and development, I just don't find it as likely due to his innate limitations
That first paragraph is astonishing. Zach's athletic gifts have almost nothing to do with playing defense. He's really fast in a straight line going forward and he can jump really high. That's it. Bad hip bending, bad lateral mobility and back-pedaling, not very strong physically. To say nothing of his bad feel for the game and poor motor.
If Giddey gets much better as a player, it's probably going to be because strength becomes an increasing part of his game. That's why I focused on rim pressure and foul drawing, and not shooting, which I don't think is terribly important here. If that happens, then you have strength+size+feel+okay motor. If he actually wants it, that's plenty to work with to become a decent defender and improve vastly as a player.
The Bulls backed themselves into a Giddey corner the minute they made the Caruso trade. Personally I think we're living in one of the best possible post-trade multiverse scenarios from a Giddey standpoint. (But the trade was bad)
But I want to pivot to saying that there is an annoying years-long epidemic of NBA GMs backing themselves into corners. It's partly a function of the CBA, ("Bird rights", capped "max" contracts you don't see in other leagues) and/or the current levers of power being in the hands of agents, but each year there are dozens of examples of clearly deficient guys getting extended or re-signed to exorbitant contracts who really don't deserve it, or raise the team's ceiling. And you can't explain it any other way than "it's worth overpaying a schlub vs. losing them for nothing, even in a league where almost every team enters each off-season without significant cap space."
Too many examples to list them here, but just go to the list of guys making $30-$35M next (between top 40-60 players ranked by salary) and pick out those who will be #2 or #3 options on winning teams? And SGA will be paid the exact same as freaking Michael Porter Jr. Etc., etc.
Building blocks I’m excited about: Matas and Essengue
Vets who I find entertaining: Coby, Ayo, Okoro, and Jones
Vets who I do not find entertaining: Huerter, Collins, and Smith
I don’t know why they’re on this team: Vuc, Pat, Terry, Phillips, and Carter
As a side tangent: that first list is too short for a team president who’s been in charge for half a decade and that fourth list is too long.
But for the point of this blog post, I don’t know what category to put Giddey under. He’s kind of a building block, but not totally. And I wouldn’t say I’m excited about him. There’s entertaining aspects to his game, but there are also maddening aspects. He’s a vet, but a really young vet.
This is what makes discussing him so difficult. He’s kind of in his own category with this team.
I read that Dwyer column, and it's bad. I understand as a columnist you have to make hot takes, and it was great that he gave some props to yfBb, but it was all focused on how Josh looks, not how he performs. Yeah, his shots go in, but it looks like they won't. Yeah, he's a good help defender, but he stands too high.
It reminded me of that scene in Moneyball, where all the old scouts are in the room talking about Yeah so and so is a good prospect, he looks like a ballplayer. And Brad Pitt says But does he get on base?
We'll find out pretty soon if Giddey is for real. If he is, I'm sure Dwyer will be on to some other hot take. And we'll be happy enough about the Bulls to give Matt some slack.
I've made a discovery recently, that I'm increasingly confident about. If you want to see who the best shooters in the league are, go to stats.nba.com and shot dashboard and instead of all 3 pointers, look at the "Open 4-6ft" category rather than the wide open one. If you look at wide open (6+ ft), you'll see that the guy who took the most wide open 3s last season was Royce O'Neale.
That's nice, but what really creates gravity in the NBA is the ability to shoot with a guy closer to you. On the 4-6ft filter, the top 5 guys are: Edwards, Curry, Tatum, D. Mitchell and Jalen Green.
These guys are, I think, the best shooters in the NBA, because they can make a sustainable percentage (or higher) with a guy somewhat in their face.
Ant was 197/473 (41%)
Giddey was 17/62 this year and 5/26 the year before. So, total of 22/88 (25%) over the course of two seasons.
I think he probably needs to double the attempts and be around 33% or higher to start being taken seriously as a shooter. The wide open looks are nice, but unless he can make a shot with some pressure on him we won't get anywhere.
A couple other random notes after looking at this:
1. Coby is probably a top 20 shooter. Toward the bottom of the top 20, but there, because he took 235 last year. He also kills it on the wide open looks and he gets a lot of those. Don't think he's worth $30M+ though, probably.
2. I've got more interest in Jalen Green than I did before. Maybe in the right situation, he could really blow up?
3. Guys who shoot plenty of wide-open shots but get really gunshy when they're just "open" are valuable, but I think it's pretty easy to understand why. Just a little bit of pressure, and they're no longer confident to hit open shots. Giddey actually does pretty well on the wide open ones. But he shits the bed when a guy gets close.
4. Same with Okoro. Took 135 wide open 3s last year and only 15 open.
5. To give a rough idea of shot difficulty, think of the ratio of wide open shots to open shots a guy takes. Last year:
Coby 1.34 (he takes 1.34 wide open shots for every open 3 he takes)
Haliburton 1.78
Giddey 4.84
Okoro 9.0
DeRozan 0.84... weirdly he takes and makes more open than wide open 3s. If Giddey can get to Demar's level of taking open (not just wide open) 3s, he'd be way more dangerous.
Somewhere around where Giddey is, I think, is where defenses will ignore you in the playoffs. Also because he's sub 30% on them.
I strongly agree with most of your points, but not your conclusion that "The wide open looks are nice, but unless he can make a shot with some pressure on him we won't get anywhere."
First, if you buy that Giddey's 2nd half performance was an indicator of his improvement and potential (even if the shooting % may not be sustainable) then he's already better than his 82-game stats would indicate.
Second and more importantly, I don't think making contested shots is actually required for Giddey to be very good or great. He just needs to be good enough to consistently punish teams who won't guard him or close out, because he's at his best as a playmaker in space. If he continues getting to the FT line like at the end of last year, and setting up teammates like he was doing, he'll be a true star on the offensive end.
Now, will we ever be great with him as a key cog on defense? That's a different question, no matter how much he shines with the ball in his hands.
1. I don't buy his performance, but it's worth noting that his post ASB Open 3s per game actually went down slightly.
2. Note that what I'm saying is not about contested shots. It's the difference how open a guy is. My point, and what I think the data shows, is that to be a difference-making player, you have to be willing to take and able to hit the "open" shots. Not just the wide-open shots. In the playoffs, the number of wide open shots goes down. The pressure gets a lot higher across the board. Giddey still passes up open shots pretty regularly. To put it in perspective, he shot fewer open 3s combined in the last two seasons than DeMar DeRozan shot in either of the last two seasons.
3. Agree about getting to the line. I'm more confident that this is a sustainable path to improvement for him. He's got keep that up, but he absolutely needs more confidence in his shot.
Why Jalen Green? He is basically redux of Zach....but smaller and less athletic and has been a worse shooter. At best, Green becomes LaVine and we saw where that got us.
Like I said above, if you look at the guys who are the best shooters by this definition, he's in the top 5.
1. Ant 473 41.6%
2. Curry
3. Tatum
4. Mitchell 342, 35.4%
5. Green 335, 34.3%
6. Doncic
7. Beasley
8. Simons
9. D. White
10. Lavine 276, 42%
...
21. Coby White 235, 34.9%
I'm not saying I'm totally in love with Jalen Green, just saying that this raised my interest level. Yes, his shooting percentages are overall lower, but he's also taking a lot more difficult shots, and making them at a rate that's consistent with the league's most elite players. He's taking roughly 50% more of those shots than Lavine and much younger.
If I had to guess, I bet Green is going to be on more of a Mitchell trajectory than a Lavine trajectory.
Which is to say, he might be undervalued right now.
So the idea is that the Bulls would be adding Jalen Green to the core of Coby, Giddey, Buzelis, and Essengue. And you'd get a look with him with Coby to see if it works. Those two and Giddy would be pretty dreadful on defense unless you could somehow get Green to really buy in as a defender. If you're looking for a benefit of Giddey as your PG, it does open the door to the possibility of pairing two combo guards like Green and White.
I might just be talking myself into it b/c Vuc is getting shipped out, but I think this feels pretty fair to all teams. I don't love giving up a pick, but Green is probably the best player in the deal and comes with three years of control.
Interesting. That's not a lot to the Warriors for Kuminga, but maybe they like Williams enough.
For us, that makes Coby expendable. He would fit well next to Luka, like Brunson and Irving did before. It would be nice to get that 2031 pick from the Lakers.
Yep, you are right. Besides those guys and about 999 others, I can't really think of any good examples where a primary playmaker filled the Robin role.
He's not getting paid like Robin, he's getting paid like the 3rd or 4th best player on a team (a competitive team). Bulls are missing Batman, Robin and Alfred.
Anybody have any insights on Mouhamadou Gueye? He's a 27 year old 6'9 forward/center, lastly on The Raptors G-league team.
I'm guessing we signed him to be on the Windy City Bulls, but haven't really heard anything. I saw the Nets just signed our WC center from last season, David Muoka.
"If they keep betting on players without defensive aptitude, they will quickly become a team that’s easy to run over — and easy to count out of the playoffs."
Highest paid player being the worst defender going on 8 straight years.
don't worry, Karnisovas went on a media blitz (relative to him) to say getting an 8th man castoff who does nothing on offense will change the team's 'defensive identity'
Here's what AK said about that 8th man: “What (he) does defensively is something we really value. He brings a unique skill set to the table. He’s capable of switching and guarding on the ball, but he also has great anticipation off the ball. That’s the kind of versatility we need to succeed defensively.”
No, wait, never mind -- that's what AK said in 2021 about Lonzo, the guy we traded for that 8th man.
"But he’s not going to get more athletic (and Dwyer details how non-fluid he looks on the court), which kind of caps development you’d wish for with other 23 year olds."
You can easily shit on this deal without saying nonsense like this.
what's nonsense? that Giddey is not athletic, or that it's easier to improve skills with experience?
I do think it is more plausible to expect, at age 23, Zach LaVine to become a better defender. Didn't happen but not due to athleticism.
I similarly never had high hopes for Patrick Williams to improve on the ball because he was so unathletic.
yes could Giddey get better defensively, and provide more on-ball shot creation, with experience and development, I just don't find it as likely due to his innate limitations
That first paragraph is astonishing. Zach's athletic gifts have almost nothing to do with playing defense. He's really fast in a straight line going forward and he can jump really high. That's it. Bad hip bending, bad lateral mobility and back-pedaling, not very strong physically. To say nothing of his bad feel for the game and poor motor.
If Giddey gets much better as a player, it's probably going to be because strength becomes an increasing part of his game. That's why I focused on rim pressure and foul drawing, and not shooting, which I don't think is terribly important here. If that happens, then you have strength+size+feel+okay motor. If he actually wants it, that's plenty to work with to become a decent defender and improve vastly as a player.
that's true re: LaVine , a bad example of 'an athlete' having defensive tools. Dalen Terry then?
and with Giddey, you're suggesting his best path defensively is guarding power forwards?
Would need someone with access to confirm, but I'm working on the theory that there are actually no sentient decisionmakers in the Bulls FO.
The Bulls backed themselves into a Giddey corner the minute they made the Caruso trade. Personally I think we're living in one of the best possible post-trade multiverse scenarios from a Giddey standpoint. (But the trade was bad)
But I want to pivot to saying that there is an annoying years-long epidemic of NBA GMs backing themselves into corners. It's partly a function of the CBA, ("Bird rights", capped "max" contracts you don't see in other leagues) and/or the current levers of power being in the hands of agents, but each year there are dozens of examples of clearly deficient guys getting extended or re-signed to exorbitant contracts who really don't deserve it, or raise the team's ceiling. And you can't explain it any other way than "it's worth overpaying a schlub vs. losing them for nothing, even in a league where almost every team enters each off-season without significant cap space."
Too many examples to list them here, but just go to the list of guys making $30-$35M next (between top 40-60 players ranked by salary) and pick out those who will be #2 or #3 options on winning teams? And SGA will be paid the exact same as freaking Michael Porter Jr. Etc., etc.
Here’s how I view this team…
Building blocks I’m excited about: Matas and Essengue
Vets who I find entertaining: Coby, Ayo, Okoro, and Jones
Vets who I do not find entertaining: Huerter, Collins, and Smith
I don’t know why they’re on this team: Vuc, Pat, Terry, Phillips, and Carter
As a side tangent: that first list is too short for a team president who’s been in charge for half a decade and that fourth list is too long.
But for the point of this blog post, I don’t know what category to put Giddey under. He’s kind of a building block, but not totally. And I wouldn’t say I’m excited about him. There’s entertaining aspects to his game, but there are also maddening aspects. He’s a vet, but a really young vet.
This is what makes discussing him so difficult. He’s kind of in his own category with this team.
No O Okoro is entertaining?
I read that Dwyer column, and it's bad. I understand as a columnist you have to make hot takes, and it was great that he gave some props to yfBb, but it was all focused on how Josh looks, not how he performs. Yeah, his shots go in, but it looks like they won't. Yeah, he's a good help defender, but he stands too high.
It reminded me of that scene in Moneyball, where all the old scouts are in the room talking about Yeah so and so is a good prospect, he looks like a ballplayer. And Brad Pitt says But does he get on base?
We'll find out pretty soon if Giddey is for real. If he is, I'm sure Dwyer will be on to some other hot take. And we'll be happy enough about the Bulls to give Matt some slack.
But his shots don't go in and he's not a good help defender
Well the numbers say otherwise.
Yeah, we'll have to see if Giddey can keep his shooting numbers where they were last year.
I've made a discovery recently, that I'm increasingly confident about. If you want to see who the best shooters in the league are, go to stats.nba.com and shot dashboard and instead of all 3 pointers, look at the "Open 4-6ft" category rather than the wide open one. If you look at wide open (6+ ft), you'll see that the guy who took the most wide open 3s last season was Royce O'Neale.
That's nice, but what really creates gravity in the NBA is the ability to shoot with a guy closer to you. On the 4-6ft filter, the top 5 guys are: Edwards, Curry, Tatum, D. Mitchell and Jalen Green.
These guys are, I think, the best shooters in the NBA, because they can make a sustainable percentage (or higher) with a guy somewhat in their face.
Ant was 197/473 (41%)
Giddey was 17/62 this year and 5/26 the year before. So, total of 22/88 (25%) over the course of two seasons.
I think he probably needs to double the attempts and be around 33% or higher to start being taken seriously as a shooter. The wide open looks are nice, but unless he can make a shot with some pressure on him we won't get anywhere.
A couple other random notes after looking at this:
1. Coby is probably a top 20 shooter. Toward the bottom of the top 20, but there, because he took 235 last year. He also kills it on the wide open looks and he gets a lot of those. Don't think he's worth $30M+ though, probably.
2. I've got more interest in Jalen Green than I did before. Maybe in the right situation, he could really blow up?
3. Guys who shoot plenty of wide-open shots but get really gunshy when they're just "open" are valuable, but I think it's pretty easy to understand why. Just a little bit of pressure, and they're no longer confident to hit open shots. Giddey actually does pretty well on the wide open ones. But he shits the bed when a guy gets close.
4. Same with Okoro. Took 135 wide open 3s last year and only 15 open.
5. To give a rough idea of shot difficulty, think of the ratio of wide open shots to open shots a guy takes. Last year:
Coby 1.34 (he takes 1.34 wide open shots for every open 3 he takes)
Haliburton 1.78
Giddey 4.84
Okoro 9.0
DeRozan 0.84... weirdly he takes and makes more open than wide open 3s. If Giddey can get to Demar's level of taking open (not just wide open) 3s, he'd be way more dangerous.
Somewhere around where Giddey is, I think, is where defenses will ignore you in the playoffs. Also because he's sub 30% on them.
Bottom line, he needs to get better.
I strongly agree with most of your points, but not your conclusion that "The wide open looks are nice, but unless he can make a shot with some pressure on him we won't get anywhere."
First, if you buy that Giddey's 2nd half performance was an indicator of his improvement and potential (even if the shooting % may not be sustainable) then he's already better than his 82-game stats would indicate.
Second and more importantly, I don't think making contested shots is actually required for Giddey to be very good or great. He just needs to be good enough to consistently punish teams who won't guard him or close out, because he's at his best as a playmaker in space. If he continues getting to the FT line like at the end of last year, and setting up teammates like he was doing, he'll be a true star on the offensive end.
Now, will we ever be great with him as a key cog on defense? That's a different question, no matter how much he shines with the ball in his hands.
1. I don't buy his performance, but it's worth noting that his post ASB Open 3s per game actually went down slightly.
2. Note that what I'm saying is not about contested shots. It's the difference how open a guy is. My point, and what I think the data shows, is that to be a difference-making player, you have to be willing to take and able to hit the "open" shots. Not just the wide-open shots. In the playoffs, the number of wide open shots goes down. The pressure gets a lot higher across the board. Giddey still passes up open shots pretty regularly. To put it in perspective, he shot fewer open 3s combined in the last two seasons than DeMar DeRozan shot in either of the last two seasons.
3. Agree about getting to the line. I'm more confident that this is a sustainable path to improvement for him. He's got keep that up, but he absolutely needs more confidence in his shot.
Why Jalen Green? He is basically redux of Zach....but smaller and less athletic and has been a worse shooter. At best, Green becomes LaVine and we saw where that got us.
Like I said above, if you look at the guys who are the best shooters by this definition, he's in the top 5.
1. Ant 473 41.6%
2. Curry
3. Tatum
4. Mitchell 342, 35.4%
5. Green 335, 34.3%
6. Doncic
7. Beasley
8. Simons
9. D. White
10. Lavine 276, 42%
...
21. Coby White 235, 34.9%
I'm not saying I'm totally in love with Jalen Green, just saying that this raised my interest level. Yes, his shooting percentages are overall lower, but he's also taking a lot more difficult shots, and making them at a rate that's consistent with the league's most elite players. He's taking roughly 50% more of those shots than Lavine and much younger.
If I had to guess, I bet Green is going to be on more of a Mitchell trajectory than a Lavine trajectory.
Which is to say, he might be undervalued right now.
Not at the rim, where I think that's what KD was mostly referring to when saying "looks like they won't go in"
shooting percentage from 0-3 ft, by season
66% / 64.6% / 67% / 58.4%
his best bet is to maintain anonymity so defenses won't bother to know simply don't foul him
I don’t think this team is cracking 35 wins, even though they want to.
If we were playing in the G league the Bulls would be top contenders, but we are not and no one told Art K.
In honor of my post above:
Bulls trade Vuc (to Suns) and Conditional pick to Suns, Jalen Smith, Ayo (to Warriors) and get Jalen Green and Nick Richards
Warriors sign and trade Kuminga to Suns and get Mark Williams, Jalen Smith and Ayo
Suns trade trade Williams, Green, and Richards and get Kuminga, Vuc, and a pick
this isnt bad for GS and Phoenix but what's in it for us? Not a fan of giving up a FRP, could it be two seconds?
So the idea is that the Bulls would be adding Jalen Green to the core of Coby, Giddey, Buzelis, and Essengue. And you'd get a look with him with Coby to see if it works. Those two and Giddy would be pretty dreadful on defense unless you could somehow get Green to really buy in as a defender. If you're looking for a benefit of Giddey as your PG, it does open the door to the possibility of pairing two combo guards like Green and White.
I might just be talking myself into it b/c Vuc is getting shipped out, but I think this feels pretty fair to all teams. I don't love giving up a pick, but Green is probably the best player in the deal and comes with three years of control.
Yeah. It's obvious the Bulls aren't going to tank, so I'd be interested in seeing them adding guys who might make us interesting.
Interesting. That's not a lot to the Warriors for Kuminga, but maybe they like Williams enough.
For us, that makes Coby expendable. He would fit well next to Luka, like Brunson and Irving did before. It would be nice to get that 2031 pick from the Lakers.
Giddey is Robin on a team without Batman.
Ouch, then nobody's there to give him a suit and some tools 😥😅
So true. And I doubt we get a Batman anytime soon. It's possible Mateus will grow into the role, but that's asking a lot.
thing is that he is too ball dominant to even be a proper Robin
Let's see.
Oscar to Kareem
Magic to Kareem
Scotty to Michael
Stockton to Malone
Kidd to Dirk
Jamal to the Joker.
Yep, you are right. Besides those guys and about 999 others, I can't really think of any good examples where a primary playmaker filled the Robin role.
Ok smartass. You are talking about top 75 of all time players. You really think giddey is even 1/4 of their level...dont be facetious.
???
I don't think you are following the discussion. Maybe sober up and try again tomorrow.
He's not getting paid like Robin, he's getting paid like the 3rd or 4th best player on a team (a competitive team). Bulls are missing Batman, Robin and Alfred.
Anybody have any insights on Mouhamadou Gueye? He's a 27 year old 6'9 forward/center, lastly on The Raptors G-league team.
I'm guessing we signed him to be on the Windy City Bulls, but haven't really heard anything. I saw the Nets just signed our WC center from last season, David Muoka.
don't know about him specifically but Bulls roster is FULL, both in active and two-way spots
My intro mentioned lack of local coverage...but Julia Poe of the Tribune did write something
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/09/11/chicago-bulls-josh-giddey-contract/
"If they keep betting on players without defensive aptitude, they will quickly become a team that’s easy to run over — and easy to count out of the playoffs."
Highest paid player being the worst defender going on 8 straight years.
don't worry, Karnisovas went on a media blitz (relative to him) to say getting an 8th man castoff who does nothing on offense will change the team's 'defensive identity'
Here's what AK said about that 8th man: “What (he) does defensively is something we really value. He brings a unique skill set to the table. He’s capable of switching and guarding on the ball, but he also has great anticipation off the ball. That’s the kind of versatility we need to succeed defensively.”
No, wait, never mind -- that's what AK said in 2021 about Lonzo, the guy we traded for that 8th man.
Lavine was clearly a bad defender with the Bulls. Every defensive stat you could find confirms that.
As far as the worst on the team now, it's clearly Coby. Last year ending starters,by EPM:
Vuc -0.4
Huerter -0.5
Giddey -0.6
Buzelis -0.9
White -1.5
By DARKO:
Huerter 0.0
Buzelis -0.1
Giddey -0.2
Vuc -0.9
White -1.5
By BPM:
Giddey +1.1
Vuc +0.1
Huerter -0.3
Buzelis -0.5
White -1.4
Ahh that hurts. Love Coby.