Bulls trade deadline preview: even a small thing would be better than nothing

they can't sit out a transaction period again, for one thing it would cause my head would explode

I’ll start by quoting that great Bulls thinker, myself:

I do not happen to think that means it’s “blow it up” or nothing. A rebuild can be a cop-out for incompetence, just saves ownership more money, and they’d probably be terrible at getting out of it back to relevance again. If AKME’s true philosophy is to maintain a competitive floor and provide a good incubator for young talent, and extending DeRozan is the best way to do that, I can understand.

I’m thinking here that a full teardown on trade deadline day, while fun to speculate in a self-pleasure way, is not ‘worth’ discussing because 1) they have said they don’t want to do it 2) they can’t really do it effectively and 3) they have no plan after doing it

But it’s also looking true to me that they can’t continue to do nothing. No matter their designs for being a competitive, tough out this season…that ship has sailed. Injuries to Patrick Williams, and to a lesser extent Zach LaVine, should have capped even the the most delusional thinking. They can stay ‘in the hunt’ for a playoff berth, because East, but no longer can seriously believe they have a good shot at making the top 8, let alone having a good showing in the first round.

That leaves the Bulls heading into this deadline like they are heading into pretty much everything: towards the middle. They won’t (or shouldn’t) use assets or spending to get better this season, yet they won’t be a full-on seller and enter a multi-year journey outside of the playoffs.

This is a difficult situation, but calling it impossible only gives them an out. A competent front office can make forward-thinking moves, an actually-good front office could even thread this needle.

the latest Getty image of AK immediately reminded me of this WizzNtzz classic

DeMar DeRozan

I get the desire to keep DDR around. He is still productive on the court and seems to be fostering a good environment for the younger players, especially the team’s brightest one in Coby White.

If one is worried about Coby not taking the next step by dominating the ball in the clutch, then certainly one way to avoid that entirely is trade DeRozan as they’ll be down twenty every game and no clutch decisions necessary! I truly believe that DeRozan is the one player the Bulls have where if he’s dealt the bottom falls out.

His free agency is looming, but just because the Bulls shot themselves in the groin with Vuc doesn’t mean they have to with DeRozan. For one thing, DeRozan is actually helpful so there’s less downside risk. But actually negotiate with him given that he likely can’t get anything above the MLE from a contender, and the Bulls are his best chance at another big contract plus big role.

Now this changes if DeMar himself finds another team that tells him they’d pay him with bird rights in the offseason, and then he politely requests a trade.

Or you trade him if the Bulls can secure a good first round pick. I don’t think that’s likely, and there’s no ‘addition by subtraction’ to be had by trading him for less.

Alex Caruso

Caruso is clearly also a big part of whatever success the team has had this season, but I think between his injury-prone style of play and the Bulls depth at his role, they’d survive (in a ‘remain competitive’ way) a Caruso absence more than a DeRozan one.

I would still offer the merits of keeping him, similarly to DDR, if not for the major difference that it does appear like Caruso has good trade value. I don’t buy the hype to the point where I think a team would offer multiple first round picks for someone who can realistically contribute 25 minutes in a playoff game, but the Bulls should be able to get a single, quality, first rounder plus an interesting young player on a rookie contract.

If they do get that return offered to them, it’s negligence (not Vuc-level malpractice, but still) not to take it.

But it’s not a total catastrophe if they don’t get that offer and hold on to him. He’s not a free agent until after next season, and they can offer him an extension this one. There’s similar limitations to his market as there is with DeRozan when it comes to plausibility a contending team would have the cap mechanism to pay him as much as the Bulls can. Caruso hasn’t made a ton of money in his career so he may simply stay for the money. I feel it’s important to remember the Bulls do have some control over these situations, which (again, I’m compelled to mention it) makes it all the worse how they handled Vuc’s free agency.

Picks, even of the Second Round variety

There’s a dark cloud over next season, impacting the direction they choose (provided they ever actually choose one). The Bulls owe their 2025 First Round Pick to the Spurs, as ‘stop-hitting-yourself’ negotiating tactics worked for San Antonio during the DeMar DeRozan sign and trade to the Bulls. It’s protected for selections 1-10 in 2025, 1-8 in 2026 and 1-8 in 2027, after which if not conveyed the Bulls send their 2028 2nd rounder.

There are two ways to think of this: either the Bulls should try to be as bad as possible to keep that selection. Or they need to pay it off ASAP to free up their ability to trade future firsts. I’ve seen scant reporting on this either way, but what I have seen is exclusively conveying the latter argument.

It’s actually not an unserious strategy. The Bulls are otherwise in not that bad of a picks situation, having every other one of their own future firsts, plus they own the more heavily protected first from Portland (lottery, through 2028). If they can get out from this Spurs obligation and can then free up every future first to trade, it opens up options for a big acquisition. Now given who’s doing such a hypothetical big trade, that is scary thought, but I can’t have ‘yes, yes, fire AKME’ as a caveat to every scenario.

The caveat applies even if unmentioned, because this Bulls front office has also displayed incompetence in their current dearth of second round selections.

2024 - gone from Lonzo Ball trade

2025 - DeRozan trade

2026&2027 - packaged for a single 2023 second rounder (drafted Julian Phillips)

I wouldn’t say second round picks are particularly valuable, but they are useful. Like I said a day ago, this deadline the Bulls can’t get the thing, but they can get the things to then get the thing later. This means likely 2-7 more incremental steps than that saying suggests, but still the lesson is to always be building, even it’s just by a little.

So that’s why I think it’s bare minimum edict that the Bulls get second round picks for Andre Drummond. Maligned in some circles (ok…this one) as an unserious player, Drummond has played better than expected and the Bulls need to take that W and trade him now. It’s all but confirmed that at least 2 second round picks is an offer out there.

Drummond is an unrestricted free agent after the season. And they aren’t going to know their chances this season on deadline day. They can make the play-in signing some big in the buyout market as a replacement, and if you needed Andre Drummond to be competitive then you were never really competitive. This logic moves down the roster in quality-and-quality-of-return to Torrey Craig and Jevon Carter. Literally any benefit to next season should supersede trying to maximize this one.

I have low expectations for the deadline. It is legitimately possible that the Bulls are so delusional they think this current team, probably without Patrick Williams for much if not all of the remaining season, is going to make some kind of run meaning anything significant. Actually, given the past 5 transaction periods that scenario is more like ‘likely’ than ‘possible’. And through their lack of shame they have beaten down the Zoom-ed in media to the point where the postmortem will be even worse.

I do have a sliver of hope, though, that while still delusional they are at least realistic enough to focus on next year over this. Next year they are likely out from under Lonzo’s millstone contract, and hopefully can turn LaVine’s contract into something more useable (or at least cheaper). It’d take some luck and actual negotiations, but they can improve significantly even if they don’t tear it all down first. So this deadline may not allow that same significant chance, but it can better set up a better offseason.

As in, even a minor move can help, perhaps most because it technically counts as ‘something’ to talk about on this blessed day of the NBA calendar.