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Stay Chisel's avatar

Although all should be traded, I have the Bulls trade urgency hierarchy as Vuc, Zach, DDR. Vuc's contract is much worse than Zach's. He's at or close to career lows in PER, 3 point percentage, and true shooting percentage-- which is really bad for an offense-first player. He is shooting 27% from 3. Some might think that he'll regress to the mean but I think it only gets worse from here.

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Haunted by Hue Hollins's avatar

Ever since he’s been in Chicago it feels like Vuc is brick city from 3. The fact that it’s getting worse blows my mind.

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granvillator's avatar

If he qualified, it'd be the worst 3pt% in the league. He just barely doesn't qualify.

That's not really the whole story though: the other players in that same territory are much better than he is. They're guys who stay on the floor despite the low 3pt% because of all the other things they do, like Julius Randle (28.8%) or because they're young, like Wemby (29.2%) or Jaden Ivey (30.1%). You couldn't trade Vuc for any of them straight up, including, unfortunately, Franz Wagner (28.8%). Vuc's shooting is comparable to Nurkic (27.3%, basically the same), who we have to understand just takes 3s because he has to, has half the attempts, shoots better from 2, takes almost 3x as many FTs in fewer minutes, etc.

Sub-Nurkic is a wild place to be. It's not really a starter, the "debates" about Vuc are pretty much settled if this is the new normal (%wise it's trending downward again). If Vuc can't shoot, he's just a big body and one that doesn't play particularly "big."

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

Double-double machine!!

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

I think Vuc requires an asset attached to get off that contract, so the Bulls have to just suck it up (and blow out 'double double machine')

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

I should add if the Bulls were willing to spend more this season to get off the multi-year Vuc commitment, they may find some takers.

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MikeDC's avatar

About the only plausible sounding deal I can come up with is Vuc + Carter for Wiggins + Cory Joseph.

Taking on Wiggins seems nihilistic though. His contract is even worse, and while he's younger, he looks just as done. I don't see who you'd flip him for.

It's like when we traded Ben Wallace for Gooden and Larry Hughes, then ended up trading Hughes for... basically dead money. You can change the form of the dead money, but it's still dead money so dead you can't even trade it at all.

Wiggins is approaching that.

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

I don't want to write off somebody a month older than LaVine, but it's certainly a downward trend for Wiggins starting from his bizarrely-long sabbatical last season

but yeah ultimately I'd rather have Vuc than dead money. Like a Ben Simmons deal could be possible but yuck

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

I suppose could take Gabe Vincent from the Lakers in a bigger LaVine deal, he makes $11.5M on that 3rd year which is $10M less than Vuc. Hachimura also has guaranteed $ on that 2025-26 season

so would Lakers see that enough in talent upgrade for this year to 'justify' that added salary of Vuc+LaVine $67.5M versus Rui+Vincent+Reaves $54M in year 3? The first two years would be pretty cost neutral

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

The Lakers are one of the teams I could actually see Vooch looking pretty decent on. He desperately needs a defense-first PF playing alongside him and AD is exactly that.

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MikeDC's avatar

I think the Zach to Lakers ship has sailed. Maybe Vuc and Craig for Rui and Hayes? Thats almost money neutral I think.

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granvillator's avatar

There's a meme-like German word, Verschlimmbesserung, which means "an improvement that makes things worse." This is the Lakers. They still have no replacement for Schroder, who made pretty much what Vincent does, but for one less year, and their decision to re-sign Russell made this worse because there are certain stretches where he just becomes totally unplayable. They're constantly making improvements that make things worse and then having to revert to what they had before in some fabled glory era.

My guess is they will use their limited assets for another Schroder-like player, who at least solves a problem, rather than Zach, Vuc or whatever else we've got who don't solve any. Malcolm Brogdon would fit the bill pretty well — low TO, top 15 assist % even on a shit team, and has experience on elite defensive teams. Don't really know if the Blazers are willing to take Russell or Hachimura with a pick + Hayes or filler, I probably wouldn't unless you could flip them immediately for something expiring.

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MikeDC's avatar

I think translated into English, Verschlimmbesserung is "JevonCarter"

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TheMoon's avatar

Hard to see GSW doing that, either. I've kind of neglected them this year, so I didn't realize they are down to 25th in defense. That's it for them. They're done. Draymond's antics are a symptom. They should trade basically everyone, and not for vets.

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MikeDC's avatar

They should but they aint gonna. From what i can tell, they really want to trade Wiggins (because they cant play him and Kuminga both), and hes about as much of a “distressed asset” as Zach and Vuc are.

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granvillator's avatar

Ah yes, the time Pax did the Full Larry. If memory serves we acquired Tim Thomas for Hughes. That was the second time we acquired Tim Thomas from the Knicks... and the second time we bought him out after acquiring him from the Knicks.

He was also the recipient of one of the wild contract offers Krause was throwing around, trying to get someone to take it, but he stayed in Milwaukee instead. Instead we later paid him something like a cumulative $15 million to go away. Twice. I would boo Tim Thomas today.

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

would you boo his widow?

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granvillator's avatar

First I'd ask her for a small loan.

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

As yfbb said, Vooch isn't getting traded. First, his contract is terrible and would require including assets just to trade it. We all know AKME aren't giving up assets. Second, trading him after doubling down with a big contract extension would only prove the initial trade for Vooch was bad and that's something AKME are unwilling to do.

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TianDogg's avatar

Any trade at all is feeling more and more like a pipe dream.

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H_Vaughn's avatar

Trading now makes too much sense for it to happen. The Athletic has LaVine, DeRozan, Caruso and Drummond on Vecenie's trade board, with a cumulative speculative haul of 3 first round picks, multiple seconds and 2 prospects (plus, I would assume, salary filler).

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TianDogg's avatar

I'd be pretty happy with that kind of haul. I think the ship has sailed on getting a good return on DeRozan, but with Zach I still have some hope that there's a desperate team on the bubble that makes a decent deal as we approach the trade deadline.

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MikeDC's avatar

In a vacuum I agree with you, but the Bulls really borked themselves by not signing up or trading for a couple of younger guys when they had the chance. I die a little inside every time I see Hartenstein doing twice as much as Vuc for 40% of the cost.

Anyway, at this point, he's kind of a sunk cost. He's bad, but I'm not a Drummond truther who thinks he can play 30+ MPG with any regularity, and even if he did, we'd still have no one else behind him if we trade for Vuc. They made this roster in a way that they can't easily unmake it.

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

I also think Drummond is not a plausible starting center, but do think they could easily get someone behind him. Bismack Biyombo was fine this year.

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d-noah's avatar

Fans seem to go up and down based on each game, and your article is the right perspective. Beating (barely) the worst teams doesn't mean much.

This team looks much like the pre-injury Bulls, to me. Gets and loses big leads, and inexplicably struggles to get tough buckets when they need them -even given three offense first players. The lack of a strong, big defender and rebounder in Ball, a slight fall-off from DeMar, plus a few years of defenses figuring how to handle him in these cases, PLUS Vuc regressing big time in the post, takes this team from one who could eke out wins to a thoroughly middle-road team.

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Bob Paul's avatar

Since the people who made the unbelievably stupid trade to get Vuc and then doubled down on an even stupider extension are still in charge, doesn't look like anything useful will happen.

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TianDogg's avatar

Ugly loss... And we have to watch them play again two more times next month!

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kinbote's avatar

"Have to" doing a lot of work here.

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TheMoon's avatar

Unfortunately, when you look beyond raw W/L, the team with Zach back is once again playing well below "mid" level. They're pretty bad again.

I've looked at these two stretches with and without Zach and done a little bit of back-of-the-envelope adjusting for MOV, home vs road, and opponent per game point differential accounting for key absences. Usually that last one would be really tricky, but key guys miss enough time these days that their teams often have decent performance samples without them.

This approach didn't change the non-Zach stretch too much. Moved it down from a +1.9 to a +1.0. It's fair to characterize that performance as "mid", I think. The recent stretch with Zach though saw significant adjustment, from +0.6 to -4.6. The Bulls are simply not overwhelming an extremely soft recent schedule.

The differences are clear: defense and rebounding. Without Zach the Bulls have been the 3rd best ORB% team in the league. With him, last. And kind of by a lot. With Zach, their DRtg doesn't look bad, 115.9. That's only 0.2 less than league average. Unfortunately, their opponents have been on average 3.4 points worse in ORtg than average. So the Bulls adjusted DRtg over this stretch would have them as like the 5th worst defense in the league. They've played really poorly since Zach came back.

I would like to see a more fleshed out argument as to why this year hasn't really affected Zach's trade value. I personally would feel quite comfortable making the argument that he has been the Bulls' worst rotation player in 2023-24. Which is bad when you make 40M, in my opinion.

This stretch has been different than the beginning of the year. Zach isn't loafing as much and seems to be trying to fit into a team concept (Bulls' assist rate is actually up over this stretch compared to the 17 games without him). The fact that the results are nearly the same as the disastrous start to the season has to be disturbing if you're thinking of trading for him, no?

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

that ORB% number is startling

is that when Zach is on/off the court, or in the games he is in versus not?

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TheMoon's avatar

The latter. Just comparing that 17 game stretch without him to the recent stretch with him back in the lineup.

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

thanks, and thank you for your service. It certainly seemed like this team was overperforming record-wise given the schedule and point differential, but this it makes it very clear

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

as to affecting his trade value, my argument is that LaVine's value was always low, and other teams are probably figuring (with Klutch telling them) that Zach would certainly play harder for a team he wanted to be on, and he wasn't actually injured either

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TheMoon's avatar

I guess maybe where I'm missing something is what appears to be the simultaneous assertions that 1) Zach is worth his contract but 2) we should not expect his trade return to be commensurate with that. I'm not sure I follow that.

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

1) is not a very strong assertion

but in theory it's to mean if a team could just take the contract without having to give up anything or pay additional in tax, they would do so as it's a 'fair' contract

Like I think Detroit would trade for LaVine. But Golden State wouldn't because it'd cost so much more.

so it's really a pretty pointless designation, I admit. It's certainly not a valuable contract, which is what was speculated when it was signed. Like the cap rising would make LaVine's max look better than future maxes

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

it's mostly an assertion to not admit that Joe Cowley was right to bitch for months that signing LaVine to that max contract was a horrible idea

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Stay Chisel's avatar

Either that he'd play harder or that his limitations would be masked by whatever other personnel is on the new team. "If you don't like Zach dribbling the ball off his foot in crunch time, don't worry because Lebron will be handling the ball then." People get mesmerized by scoring, so I think a market for him will materialize.

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

Curious how much of that has to do with Vooch missing significant time too. Drummond was rebounding out of his mind during that time.

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TheMoon's avatar

Actually, oddly enough, the Bulls OReb% went down when Vuc went down. Their OReb% was like 32 for a while there. Ultimately the OReb% for the non-Zach stretch was 28.5%.

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MikeDC's avatar

Sometimes shit is just weird.

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

Yeah, that is just strange. 😂

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MikeDC's avatar

I believe the stats, but usually try to figure out how the stats reflect what i see on the court and this is mind boggling. Maybe its because Zach and Vuc came back at the same time, so what we’re really seeing in the stat is Drummond coming off the floor so much (and Pat being hurt) coincident with the return of Zach and Vuc?

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TheMoon's avatar

See just above in my comment to CKTG. It's even weirder than it looks at first.

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Dogfishhead's avatar

The short answer to this question is yes.

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granvillator's avatar

I don't know if we have an extra roster spot, but if we don't, they need to make room because the team badly needs someone up front. Darius Bazley is in the G-League and signed on a 10 day pending the situation with Zach resolving, would probably be our second best PF right away. He'd probably be our best shotblocker too. He actually shot pretty well last year from 3.

There is no point to Terry Taylor or Sanogo being on the roster, even as 2 ways, because neither will ever see meaningful minutes here because they're too small and cannot stretch the floor. You could have fun with these type of players if you have a legit center who does legit center things (and a whole lot of other personnel) but we don't, and it's kind of dumb wasting time on players that will never play for you. I don't know what the opposite of the Heat philosophy is but wasting roster spots on guys who can only be on the floor in extremely limited circumstances is unfortunately peak Bulls philosophy.

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

they have a roster spot, but assuming Coby hit whatever incentives were in his contract they're too close to the tax lol

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granvillator's avatar

I don't know why I haven't done this lately, maybe I did and I just forgot, but Karnisovas has completely fucking trashed our draft going forward. It's not just in the past — as bad as the Vucevic draft compensation was, it must have blinded me about the truly awful position we're in going forward.

The Pelicans just got into the Siakam deal to get rid of Kira Lewis' contract for tax purposes, but we don't even really have a "spare" 2nd rounder to speak of to make something like that happen. Not only is that Blazers pick unlikely to yield a 1st, that 1st we have to send to the Spurs seems possible it will convey, and we have NO second round picks until 2028! None! Zero!

How the fuck did we wind up with people even lazier and more carefree about blowing 2nd rounders than Gar?!

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Bullini's avatar

We have an extra spot for Bazley. Sanogo will be our backup C next year when Drummond doesn’t resign is traded.??? I think Phillips will pan out but he will need years of bulking up.

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granvillator's avatar

I don't think Sanogo can do that. He's giving up 2 inches and 30 pounds to Drummond. If you're going to have an undersized 6'9" C who can't shoot, you might as well play a 6'8" F who can shoot. We need at least 2 more of the latter anyway, it's been a crying need for years.

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Bullini's avatar

Jarret Allen 6’9” 243 lbs. Sanogo 6’9” 245 lbs. neither can shoot.

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Dogfishhead's avatar

Not a great comparison. Though, I agree. They are both 6'9'' basketball players.

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Bullini's avatar

I do agree that we need more 6’8” shooters, but they don’t exactly grow on trees, and are what every team wants. Also, Siakam 6’8” 245 lbs also can’t shoot

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granvillator's avatar

Allen has a 7'6" wingspan and runs the floor like a monster. It was never hard to figure out he could board against 7 footers and pursue them defensively.

In your next post you compare him to Siakam, Sanogo averaged 1.3 assists per game in 3 years in college (before he lost 1.75 inches before heading to the combine, where he measured a hair over 6'7".)

Some of the best rebounders in NBA history have been under 6'10". That does not mean that every player under 6'10" will become one of the best rebounders in NBA history.

No, 6'8" stretch 4s don't grow on trees, but you didn't need to pick Taurean Prince from a tree, just sign him to a contract half of the size of the one they gave Jevon Carter.

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Bullini's avatar

I’m not comparing Sanogo to those guys, just saying there is a place for non-shooting beef in the nba. AKME is going to give Sanogo slack because he was his big undrafted find, so betting he’s rostered next year. The mistake was paying big $ for Vuc who is now also a bad shooter. And I agree Taurean would have been a better signing.

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granvillator's avatar

Sure there's a place for it, in fact it's incredibly cheap talent. You don't really need to groom a guy to grow and become Andre Drummond, because the real one doesn't cost anything. His salaries for the last four years:

2021: $500k (post buyout)

2022: $2.4m (Nets / Sixers)

2023: $3.2m (Bulls)

2024: $3.3m (Bulls)

Not an anomaly, that's what a C like Andre Drummond ages 27 through 30 costs.

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Bullini's avatar

Never understood Drummond’s fall. I think it’s a combination of bad performances against top centers, too many missed layups, not meeting unrealistic expectations, and being too nice a guy?

Also don’t understand Mo Bamba, who has legit size and 3pt shooting. His D must be bad, but can’t be worse than Vuc.

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THEKILLERWHALE's avatar

Siakam to the Pacers for Brown + Nwora(?) and 3 first rounders.

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TheMoon's avatar

Siakam is the best player in the league of whom I have thought, "money aside, he should just go to Europe to play and win a bunch of MVPs". Which is to say, I don't really get Siakam as a player, and I don't see a place for him basically anywhere in the league. This isn't as bad as the Vuc trade; but it's in that vein.

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

Impatiently waiting for a yfbb rant about Joe Cowley's article on Vooch...

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granvillator's avatar

My guy literally wrote an entire article about Nikola Vucevic increasing his assists by 0.9 per game.

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

Still want to hear him complain about Cowley's article!

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

It's sad that we're nearing the deadline and news is so slow around the Bulls (DESPITE HAVING A MAX PLAYER WHO HAS PUBLICLY ASKED OUT) that he's forced to write an article about how Vooch isn't as terrible as he's looked this season.

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

still technically better than the other traveling beat writer, who's part of a media partnership with the team, writing an article every other day about how LaVine is a good teammate (despite openly quitting on said team)

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

This is true. Cowley may be dumb but at least he's willing to occasionally call this organization out on its bullshit.

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

As a general rule I don't read Cowley. Sometimes I see his stuff get aggregated because (sadly) he's like the only media who goes on the road with the team anymore

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

*his stuff meaning quotes from players. His analysis and opinions are dogshit

I can only guess Vuc was willing to talk about his connecting passes giving the team the momentum of a runaway freight train

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

The article quite literally sounded like it was paid for by Vooch. Like talking about how running the offense through him has made this a winning team, as if there have been no other factors that have led to them winning more recently. I honestly just read it for the humor.

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

That's certainly understandable. I actually stumbled across the article on HoopsHype. They made a post about Zach with a link and it took me to that article, which happened to have one sentence about Zach in it.

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MikeDC's avatar

Which means some guy at Hoopshype read through it and decided "that's a bunch of nonsensical bullshit"

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Captain Kirk's Tooth Gap's avatar

100% 😂😂

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Bullini's avatar

Christian Koloko waived by Raptors. Shot blocker and Dalen Terry ex-teammate. Get him, Bulls!

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your friendly BullsBlogger's avatar

MichaelJordanStopItGetSomeHelp.gif

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Bullini's avatar

Why do you think I'm crying?????? haha

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