Immediately untradeable is a bit excessive - it’s just not an instantly valuable contract, which is what restricted free agency should yield since the team has match rights. He will be making 4th best player on a great team money, which is fine in a vacuum, but whether he’s as good as the fourth best player on a great team is up in the air.
4/90 versus 4/100 does not matter for a team with no upside and no ambitions. If you wouldn’t sign Giddey at 4/90, you don’t want him on the team, at all. As always, it’s the same reality that the Bulls fan base is chock full of idiots who think slightly below mediocrity is enjoyable and a miserly owner who is happy to take their money.
I agree. I don't understand the point of criticizing this contract based on "tradeability" given that AK wants Giddey to lead the future "core" and isn't good at trades. If he gets better, Giddey will be tradeable, but in that case we'll want to keep him. If he gets worse or injured nobody's going to want him even at less than $20M.
The key word is "vacuum" -- as informed fans our instinct is to analyze the move based on how a smart, competent front office with a plan to compete (either now, or after a rebuild) would manage its assets. But that's not the FO we have. Our best hopes for the next 2-3 years are that AKME will either stumble into a roster that's actually got potential, or fail so badly that they finally get canned (but with some assets a future FO can leverage).
This deal certainly doesn't preclude either of those outcomes from potentially happening. So I guess in that proverbial vacuum it's kind of interesting to analyze and debate and criticize, but in our current reality, unlike some other recent deals (Vuc, PWill) this contract news isn't really very significant at all... the Bulls are gonna Bull, the Reinsdorfs are gonna 'Dorf.
AK's an idiot, that's the underlying problem. He only wants Giddey to lead a future "core" because that's all he has.
while he isn't good at trades, he is even worse at draft and free agency. They aren't going to tank and they aren't going to sign a max free agent, so they need their contracts to be tradeable
there's also the school of thought that Giddey is "too good" for the roster to fail, which would get a silver lining outcome of AKME shitcanning, but I don't think so. I think they could be very bad next season even if Giddey plays a lot
Well, AK is a useful idiot in that Reinsdorf himself has advocated for "finishing 2nd every year" as the best strategy for baseball teams like his White Sox -- which equates to "finish in the play-in" in the NBA. However, I think the (rightly) cynical fans and writers who say the Bulls aspire to be in the play-in every year aren't quite right. What Bulls ownership really wants is to keep attendance and revenue up, and give fans some glimmers of hope, while spending as little money as possible. Play-in level basketball just happens to be the sweet spot for achieving this goal in the current Chicago sports market.
And AK is indeed "competent" enough to keep the team slightly below average (before each of the last few seasons started, many on this site have said the Bulls might accidentally be VERY bad, but they always have that special way of staying just below water without drowning because they keep trying at the end of the season when other teams know to stop). AK also knows that living in "Basketball Hell" isn't poison to his reign as GM, but rather a condition that will keep him in ownership's good graces. Reinsdorf knows AK will comply and not fight him to spend more to build a winner, nor fight for the right to tank, and he also surely knows (as do we) that AK wouldn't succeed given either of those objectives anyway.
But it comes down to this, for me -- my first instinct was to respond to your comment saying "So then, what would you have done with Giddey if you were AK?" Then I realized it's kind of a futile exercise to put knowledgeable fans who are passionate about winning into the shoes of a GM who, whether or not he's an actual idiot, certainly has a totally different perspective and directive on what constitutes success. It's sort of that bizarro, Twilight Zone, alternate reality that we have to live in as Bulls fans. It sucks.
The correct desire, given the miserly owners’ age, is to root for cheapness over ambition, where the incompetence keeps deals short and adds net picks on the margin and wait for the day a new governor comes and then is not saddled with years of legacy costs of mismanagement.
I'm not sure if that's necessarily the "correct" desire -- I became a fan as a kid in the 80s, and there is always going to be part of me that wants the Bulls to win every year, even when it's improbable or not aligned with a prudent "tanking" strategy. The day that part of me dies, I'm not sure fandom will ever be fun unless the team is holding up a trophy in June.
However, rationally I believe what you stated above is truly the only real hope for Bulls fans -- that someday in the not-too-distant future a new regime (hopefully led by new ownership) takes the reins of a team whose cupboard isn't bare and whose closet isn't full of skeletons.
Right I am not even myopic to the level of where it is ownership cheapness holding things back
It is AK as an executive awful at his job and the moral hazard of doing just enough to keep it. He has to tout 15-5, Giddey is a future all star because he's scraping the bottom of the barrel for any success to show Michael Reinsdorf
I would have instead held firm and even negged Giddey, like that's great the team got some lucky wins in March bozo time but we need better. And to get better it isn't enough to sign Giddey to a fair deal but a value-added deal, where if his 30 games are legit now you have a steal of a contract and can overpay elsewhere.
Should have been 5 years, $125M. That's going to be a really cheap contract if he's anywhere near a 2.5 VORP player each year going forward (he was at 2.7 VORP last year).
The issue is that very few teams need a lead or even secondary ball handler that has not proven to have a long distance shot or defensive capability that plays in the playoffs, let alone both of those attributes. If he becomes slightly above average at 3’s and defense, it’s a great deal. If he doesn’t, it’s just passing the 82 game season to put butts in seats.
If he's even in the 1.5-2 VORP range, his contract will be quite movable and packagable. I'm not concerned with the deal. I am concerned it is only a 4 year deal. PW was an example of incompetent analysis based on prior play. If the analysis for a very young player is they are generally currently "good", they should otherwise be maximizing years, even if AAV is slightly higher in the process. By not doing so, they place themselves in another Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu situation.
NBA teams don’t care about VORP in a vacuum. There are effectively three categories: title chasers, tankers and the mid plebs. Tankers don’t want floor raising “young vets” who will win them 5 more games and mess up their lottery odds and take up cap space better optimized for salary dump monetization. Title chasers do not want floor raisers who need the ball and get paid but get exposed in the playoffs and end up as payroll wasted on the bench in crunch time of round 2. Mid plebs, like Jerry’s Chicago Bulls want floor raisers who win 5 more regular season games, and they don’t give a rat’s ass about the second round because that’s not their objective.
Bullsblogger is correct that PWill has a better archetype, it’s just that he’s a horrible player who they overpaid pointlessly. Giddey would need to elevate secondary skills and “scale down” his ball handling needs to fit as a useful point forward on a contender, which is possible but unlikely. Oklahoma City traded him because he rejected taking that role on their then 57 win team. He wants to run the offense and he will for not too much money on a 35-45 win Bulls team for several years. It will likely be forgettable but it does not handicap them unlike prior deals.
Overpaying Coby White is going to be more damaging - he’s not worth $30 million a year and is worse than Giddey.
We're going to see on Coby. If he's anything like ECPM Coby early this coming season and the team exceeds expectations by the end of the season, then you absolutely pay him like 5 years, $35M per year.
The market for no defense, small 2 guards is horrible. Acquiring Norm Powell cost a single second round pick. Committing any long term money to that position is a mistake. You can’t cite Giddey’s VORP to defend him and then ignore that White is a negative BPM player who has accumulated 1.5 VORP in 422 games.
Yes, Powell for Love, Slomo and a pick was a good deal for Miami. And for sure, one-way players are having a much harder time getting contracts now. Coby needs to step it up.
Giddey will be fine in the playoffs for us, if we ever get there. OKC just maxed three players, there was no way in hell they were going to be able to pay Josh $25 mil per year on top of that. They wanted him to come off the bench in his contract year, why would he want to do that? OKC traded Josh because he forced it.
And you are right, NBA teams don't care about VORP. I don't know what numbers they look at, but they don't use anything that we have access too. If they did, Kyle Kuzma would be out of the league.
that's my contention. Giddey has only 'proved' that he can do a lot with the ball in his hands on a go-nowhere team. That is not particularly 'valuable'
the concept of Patrick Williams, a low-usage but plug-and-play 2-way contributor, is more valuable. Though we don't know it since they didn't let him test the market like Giddey.
I think it is valuable. If Dallas had anything they could really trade and had cap space, they were desperate for a ball handling guard, for example.
I don't think Giddey is an "empty calories" player, but we're going to see. His ceiling is a #3 on a good playoff team and I think if the Bulls look to package him for a star in 2 years, his contract will be very movable. Time will tell, eh?
No one had cap space except the Nets who just drafted like 5 guards, first of all.
Secondly, the Warriors were supposedly interested in Giddey for Kuminga, but couldn't do it because of cap rules, which interfered with salary matching to pull off the trade.
Third, Giddey isn't "proven." His production majorly jumped last season. This is ultimately a bet on a young player that he'll not fall too much at minimum from last season's production and could even improve. No one is generally going to majorly tinker with their roster and trade away productive players to acquire Giddey and take that bet on someone who just a year+ ago was traded away because he was bad in the playoffs.
I think it's a good bet. It would be so much better if it were a 5 year bet, though, than a 4 year one.
I’m not worried about it being untrabeable. I’m not a big fan, but I think the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction now. He’s young and productive and made what appear to be solid improvements in key areas (getting to the line and shooting 3s).
I feel a lot better about this than I did about the Bulls signing Pat or Vucevic.
the pat contract was instantly appalling to me. this contract is like a gift compared to that one. giddey can at least be a playmaker on some level that isn't revolting to watch
I translate that as "they weren't bamboozled by Giddey's agent to up their offer against other non-existent phantom bids." Which I actually believe. Instead they were backed into a non-existent corner by the agent's empty threats that Giddey might hold out or play on the QO. I'm not sure if that's better though.
I keep seeing that this was a fair compromise but that is against a number that Giddey's reps just pulled out of thin air! The true compromise would be coming down from the $20M initial offer when no other team was even offering the MLE. And all the intangible benefits of being on this team (market, usage) should mean less money, not more!
It’s fine. He’ll always be a contributor on the offensive end, so we’ll never be sitting here and thinking “What the hell are we paying this guy for?” like we are with Pat. And unlike LaVine and Vuc, he fits the style the Bulls want to play.
I’m not convinced a major leap is coming since he already has about 280 starts to his name. But he could improve at least somewhat.
The next step is replacing Vuc with a center who plays defense, because you’re just asking for headaches if your PG and C are both bad defenders. Frustratingly, that doesn’t seem to be happening this season.
In one sense, a major leap already happened if you treat the 2nd half of last year as something potentially sustainable. Though in another sense, even a major leap into a regular season stud doesn't mean his game will translate to playoff basketball. (But what's the chance we get to see what he can do in a playoff series over the next few years?)
On the bright side of things, Giddey contract doesn't put Bulls over their 1st or 2nd Apron, and now can look into making more trades to free up more cap space.
Trading PW and Vuchevic should be AK top priority now moving forward.
I will admit saying 'untradeable' is a bit inflammatory and not entirely accurate. If he plays well they won't want to trade him either. It's more accurate that this is already 'bad money', after months of hearing how clean their books are.
So, sure feels like top priority needs to be figuring out how to get Vuc off the roster and finding a defensive anchor at the five. Kind of drawing a blank on who that should be.
I really don't understand only going for 4 years. AK is an idiot, and this reeks of a guy who's always using lessons from the last game he lost, regardless of whether it makes sense in the current one. That Patrick deal was sub-mental, and even AK knows it. That's the battle he was fighting with Giddey. Am I crazy? Could this exact deal not have been done like 2 months ago?
The only reason to trade an excellent player like Caruso for Giddey is because you believe in Giddey's future upside. Why else would you do it? Otherwise you'd be better off taking back purely draft assets. So if you believe in him enough for that trade, why are you stopping at 4 years?
By the way, that trade is permanently fucked, because the better Giddey is, the more egregious it is to not get draft consideration to help build a team around him.
At this point it's not on coaches or the front office. Clearly they are doing what ownership wants. Doesn't make sense to keep blaming whoever is the coach or F.O.
Immediately untradeable is a bit excessive - it’s just not an instantly valuable contract, which is what restricted free agency should yield since the team has match rights. He will be making 4th best player on a great team money, which is fine in a vacuum, but whether he’s as good as the fourth best player on a great team is up in the air.
4/90 versus 4/100 does not matter for a team with no upside and no ambitions. If you wouldn’t sign Giddey at 4/90, you don’t want him on the team, at all. As always, it’s the same reality that the Bulls fan base is chock full of idiots who think slightly below mediocrity is enjoyable and a miserly owner who is happy to take their money.
I agree. I don't understand the point of criticizing this contract based on "tradeability" given that AK wants Giddey to lead the future "core" and isn't good at trades. If he gets better, Giddey will be tradeable, but in that case we'll want to keep him. If he gets worse or injured nobody's going to want him even at less than $20M.
The key word is "vacuum" -- as informed fans our instinct is to analyze the move based on how a smart, competent front office with a plan to compete (either now, or after a rebuild) would manage its assets. But that's not the FO we have. Our best hopes for the next 2-3 years are that AKME will either stumble into a roster that's actually got potential, or fail so badly that they finally get canned (but with some assets a future FO can leverage).
This deal certainly doesn't preclude either of those outcomes from potentially happening. So I guess in that proverbial vacuum it's kind of interesting to analyze and debate and criticize, but in our current reality, unlike some other recent deals (Vuc, PWill) this contract news isn't really very significant at all... the Bulls are gonna Bull, the Reinsdorfs are gonna 'Dorf.
AK's an idiot, that's the underlying problem. He only wants Giddey to lead a future "core" because that's all he has.
while he isn't good at trades, he is even worse at draft and free agency. They aren't going to tank and they aren't going to sign a max free agent, so they need their contracts to be tradeable
there's also the school of thought that Giddey is "too good" for the roster to fail, which would get a silver lining outcome of AKME shitcanning, but I don't think so. I think they could be very bad next season even if Giddey plays a lot
Well, AK is a useful idiot in that Reinsdorf himself has advocated for "finishing 2nd every year" as the best strategy for baseball teams like his White Sox -- which equates to "finish in the play-in" in the NBA. However, I think the (rightly) cynical fans and writers who say the Bulls aspire to be in the play-in every year aren't quite right. What Bulls ownership really wants is to keep attendance and revenue up, and give fans some glimmers of hope, while spending as little money as possible. Play-in level basketball just happens to be the sweet spot for achieving this goal in the current Chicago sports market.
And AK is indeed "competent" enough to keep the team slightly below average (before each of the last few seasons started, many on this site have said the Bulls might accidentally be VERY bad, but they always have that special way of staying just below water without drowning because they keep trying at the end of the season when other teams know to stop). AK also knows that living in "Basketball Hell" isn't poison to his reign as GM, but rather a condition that will keep him in ownership's good graces. Reinsdorf knows AK will comply and not fight him to spend more to build a winner, nor fight for the right to tank, and he also surely knows (as do we) that AK wouldn't succeed given either of those objectives anyway.
But it comes down to this, for me -- my first instinct was to respond to your comment saying "So then, what would you have done with Giddey if you were AK?" Then I realized it's kind of a futile exercise to put knowledgeable fans who are passionate about winning into the shoes of a GM who, whether or not he's an actual idiot, certainly has a totally different perspective and directive on what constitutes success. It's sort of that bizarro, Twilight Zone, alternate reality that we have to live in as Bulls fans. It sucks.
The correct desire, given the miserly owners’ age, is to root for cheapness over ambition, where the incompetence keeps deals short and adds net picks on the margin and wait for the day a new governor comes and then is not saddled with years of legacy costs of mismanagement.
I'm not sure if that's necessarily the "correct" desire -- I became a fan as a kid in the 80s, and there is always going to be part of me that wants the Bulls to win every year, even when it's improbable or not aligned with a prudent "tanking" strategy. The day that part of me dies, I'm not sure fandom will ever be fun unless the team is holding up a trophy in June.
However, rationally I believe what you stated above is truly the only real hope for Bulls fans -- that someday in the not-too-distant future a new regime (hopefully led by new ownership) takes the reins of a team whose cupboard isn't bare and whose closet isn't full of skeletons.
Right I am not even myopic to the level of where it is ownership cheapness holding things back
It is AK as an executive awful at his job and the moral hazard of doing just enough to keep it. He has to tout 15-5, Giddey is a future all star because he's scraping the bottom of the barrel for any success to show Michael Reinsdorf
I would have instead held firm and even negged Giddey, like that's great the team got some lucky wins in March bozo time but we need better. And to get better it isn't enough to sign Giddey to a fair deal but a value-added deal, where if his 30 games are legit now you have a steal of a contract and can overpay elsewhere.
The illusion of practical forethought
Should have been 5 years, $125M. That's going to be a really cheap contract if he's anywhere near a 2.5 VORP player each year going forward (he was at 2.7 VORP last year).
The issue is that very few teams need a lead or even secondary ball handler that has not proven to have a long distance shot or defensive capability that plays in the playoffs, let alone both of those attributes. If he becomes slightly above average at 3’s and defense, it’s a great deal. If he doesn’t, it’s just passing the 82 game season to put butts in seats.
If he's even in the 1.5-2 VORP range, his contract will be quite movable and packagable. I'm not concerned with the deal. I am concerned it is only a 4 year deal. PW was an example of incompetent analysis based on prior play. If the analysis for a very young player is they are generally currently "good", they should otherwise be maximizing years, even if AAV is slightly higher in the process. By not doing so, they place themselves in another Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu situation.
NBA teams don’t care about VORP in a vacuum. There are effectively three categories: title chasers, tankers and the mid plebs. Tankers don’t want floor raising “young vets” who will win them 5 more games and mess up their lottery odds and take up cap space better optimized for salary dump monetization. Title chasers do not want floor raisers who need the ball and get paid but get exposed in the playoffs and end up as payroll wasted on the bench in crunch time of round 2. Mid plebs, like Jerry’s Chicago Bulls want floor raisers who win 5 more regular season games, and they don’t give a rat’s ass about the second round because that’s not their objective.
Bullsblogger is correct that PWill has a better archetype, it’s just that he’s a horrible player who they overpaid pointlessly. Giddey would need to elevate secondary skills and “scale down” his ball handling needs to fit as a useful point forward on a contender, which is possible but unlikely. Oklahoma City traded him because he rejected taking that role on their then 57 win team. He wants to run the offense and he will for not too much money on a 35-45 win Bulls team for several years. It will likely be forgettable but it does not handicap them unlike prior deals.
Overpaying Coby White is going to be more damaging - he’s not worth $30 million a year and is worse than Giddey.
We're going to see on Coby. If he's anything like ECPM Coby early this coming season and the team exceeds expectations by the end of the season, then you absolutely pay him like 5 years, $35M per year.
The market for no defense, small 2 guards is horrible. Acquiring Norm Powell cost a single second round pick. Committing any long term money to that position is a mistake. You can’t cite Giddey’s VORP to defend him and then ignore that White is a negative BPM player who has accumulated 1.5 VORP in 422 games.
Yes, Powell for Love, Slomo and a pick was a good deal for Miami. And for sure, one-way players are having a much harder time getting contracts now. Coby needs to step it up.
Giddey will be fine in the playoffs for us, if we ever get there. OKC just maxed three players, there was no way in hell they were going to be able to pay Josh $25 mil per year on top of that. They wanted him to come off the bench in his contract year, why would he want to do that? OKC traded Josh because he forced it.
And you are right, NBA teams don't care about VORP. I don't know what numbers they look at, but they don't use anything that we have access too. If they did, Kyle Kuzma would be out of the league.
that's my contention. Giddey has only 'proved' that he can do a lot with the ball in his hands on a go-nowhere team. That is not particularly 'valuable'
the concept of Patrick Williams, a low-usage but plug-and-play 2-way contributor, is more valuable. Though we don't know it since they didn't let him test the market like Giddey.
I think it is valuable. If Dallas had anything they could really trade and had cap space, they were desperate for a ball handling guard, for example.
I don't think Giddey is an "empty calories" player, but we're going to see. His ceiling is a #3 on a good playoff team and I think if the Bulls look to package him for a star in 2 years, his contract will be very movable. Time will tell, eh?
I don't doubt Giddey's ability to put up box score stats
I also don't think NBA GMs treat that as 'valuable', as evidenced by this summer's non-market for Giddey
No one had cap space except the Nets who just drafted like 5 guards, first of all.
Secondly, the Warriors were supposedly interested in Giddey for Kuminga, but couldn't do it because of cap rules, which interfered with salary matching to pull off the trade.
Third, Giddey isn't "proven." His production majorly jumped last season. This is ultimately a bet on a young player that he'll not fall too much at minimum from last season's production and could even improve. No one is generally going to majorly tinker with their roster and trade away productive players to acquire Giddey and take that bet on someone who just a year+ ago was traded away because he was bad in the playoffs.
I think it's a good bet. It would be so much better if it were a 5 year bet, though, than a 4 year one.
I’m not worried about it being untrabeable. I’m not a big fan, but I think the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction now. He’s young and productive and made what appear to be solid improvements in key areas (getting to the line and shooting 3s).
I feel a lot better about this than I did about the Bulls signing Pat or Vucevic.
the pat contract was instantly appalling to me. this contract is like a gift compared to that one. giddey can at least be a playmaker on some level that isn't revolting to watch
KC is reporting (it was buried in a 3 minute video) that there are no team or player options for the 4 year contract
The less possibilities AK needs to think through the better.
Speaking of, KC in that video that 'the Bulls did a good job, didn't bid against themselves' huh?
I translate that as "they weren't bamboozled by Giddey's agent to up their offer against other non-existent phantom bids." Which I actually believe. Instead they were backed into a non-existent corner by the agent's empty threats that Giddey might hold out or play on the QO. I'm not sure if that's better though.
I keep seeing that this was a fair compromise but that is against a number that Giddey's reps just pulled out of thin air! The true compromise would be coming down from the $20M initial offer when no other team was even offering the MLE. And all the intangible benefits of being on this team (market, usage) should mean less money, not more!
Like the $11 million QO. Jerry must have had drool dripping down his tie thinking about that.
It’s fine. He’ll always be a contributor on the offensive end, so we’ll never be sitting here and thinking “What the hell are we paying this guy for?” like we are with Pat. And unlike LaVine and Vuc, he fits the style the Bulls want to play.
I’m not convinced a major leap is coming since he already has about 280 starts to his name. But he could improve at least somewhat.
The next step is replacing Vuc with a center who plays defense, because you’re just asking for headaches if your PG and C are both bad defenders. Frustratingly, that doesn’t seem to be happening this season.
In one sense, a major leap already happened if you treat the 2nd half of last year as something potentially sustainable. Though in another sense, even a major leap into a regular season stud doesn't mean his game will translate to playoff basketball. (But what's the chance we get to see what he can do in a playoff series over the next few years?)
I think the only decent center the Bulls could get now is Timelord from the Blazers. We could give them back their conditional 1st and some expirings.
I am guessing though that we will roll with who we've got and then look to use our cap space next summer.
Too injury prone
On the bright side of things, Giddey contract doesn't put Bulls over their 1st or 2nd Apron, and now can look into making more trades to free up more cap space.
Trading PW and Vuchevic should be AK top priority now moving forward.
Nobody wants either one of them though. Maybe the new Seattle team.
Yes. Expansion teams.
I heard LasVegas is slated to join the NBA
Bulls need more shot blockers
I get that the front office is terrible and that most of the things they do are wrong, but this is a good deal for the team.
Bulls can afford to get nothing for Vuch, but they sure need to get at least some draft capital for PW.
I can't bear to watch another season of PW missing shots and playing under his capabilities.
Karnisovas made a lot of calls to other GMs about Pat. If anybody was willing to take him, he would be gone. It's going to cost us picks to dump him.
I will admit saying 'untradeable' is a bit inflammatory and not entirely accurate. If he plays well they won't want to trade him either. It's more accurate that this is already 'bad money', after months of hearing how clean their books are.
So, sure feels like top priority needs to be figuring out how to get Vuc off the roster and finding a defensive anchor at the five. Kind of drawing a blank on who that should be.
I really don't understand only going for 4 years. AK is an idiot, and this reeks of a guy who's always using lessons from the last game he lost, regardless of whether it makes sense in the current one. That Patrick deal was sub-mental, and even AK knows it. That's the battle he was fighting with Giddey. Am I crazy? Could this exact deal not have been done like 2 months ago?
The only reason to trade an excellent player like Caruso for Giddey is because you believe in Giddey's future upside. Why else would you do it? Otherwise you'd be better off taking back purely draft assets. So if you believe in him enough for that trade, why are you stopping at 4 years?
By the way, that trade is permanently fucked, because the better Giddey is, the more egregious it is to not get draft consideration to help build a team around him.
At this point it's not on coaches or the front office. Clearly they are doing what ownership wants. Doesn't make sense to keep blaming whoever is the coach or F.O.