Caleb Wilson: 38 minutes, 30 points on 10/24 shooting, 14 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, a block, and 0 turnovers.

Here are the highlights!

Wilson did all this in spite of going 1/9 from three, because he had a whole lotta shots at the rim.

It’s too early to think of how this is “development” in exactly how he got these numbers, but it is early enough to feel good that Wilson can establish a floor of this much production this early in his career. Patrick Williams, a fellow highly-picked athletic1 young forward, had a career-high of 14 rebounds matching what Caleb did in his third game. And Williams only got to 30 points once, on the last game of the regular season in his second season.

Wilson’s team now embarks on an extremely challenging stretch of opponents. It’s on them all to at least stay close and competitive so Wilson can be in ‘regular’ NBA minutes and potentially even crunch time like the past 2 games.

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And before getting into the more important elements within the game, the end result is worth discussing to me in that I had a revelatory moment in…not caring. Not even so much thinking about tanking, or the relegation zone, but no longer dueling against phantom thoughts of Arturas Karnisovas thinking his team is close to contention because fluky things like, for example in this game, the Bucks missing 12 free throws (including 5 in the 4th quarter).

AK’s successor, Bryson Graham, has said and acted like he knows his team currently stinks and has a long way to go.

And this game showed that Tiago Splitter seemingly agrees. In his first win as Bulls coach, Splitter acted unbeholden to any player on the roster, instead playing whomever was giving Wilson1 and the team the best chance at succeeding.

The first quarter in this game was making it clear that the starting lineup, especially Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis, were not going to give the Bulls a good chance at winning, and the team was in danger of going 0-2 in even-competitive matchups. Even though facing an opponent that allowed them to not only stay even on possessions but have an advantage, the Bulls were dismal offensively with just 17 points going 6/14 from two and 1/14 from three2.

I have given Splitter some guff in these first two games for having all-bench lineups out there, figuring there was no chance at good offense without at least one of Giddey, Buzelis, or Norm Powell on the court. But in this game’s second quarter the likes of Noa Essengue and Leonard Miller, with Tre Jones at point guard, there was no need for half-court offense, as they were able to defensively-disrupt and run their way to a 16-0 stretch to take the lead.

At halftime, it was merely a 1 point deficit, but the team was -13 with Giddey on the court, as he plus Matas plus Caleb combined for 8 points in the half.

In the 2nd half it wasn’t some immediate return to disaster from the starting unit, but there was a noticeable difference in how the team played with Essengue, Miller, Jones (relentless dribble penetration)…with Caleb Wilson coming alive. Wilson had 12 points in the 3rd quarter alone.

If you’re focused on the rebuild, it was already a successful game3. But as an individual contest it was still very much a toss-up throughout the 4th quarter.

And then in the final ~4 minutes, it was Giddey on the bench. And Matas Buzelis didn’t play the entire 4th quarter.

And the Bulls won not in spite of this, but because of it. Kind of like the 2nd quarter, the Bulls still looked mostly hopeless in half-court sets but were able to capitalize on 9 Bucks turnovers.

Wilson went 5-6 from the line in the 4th quarter.

I can only conclude, therefore: he’s clutch! Kidding of course, but it is of utmost importance that he plays in meaningful minutes. And the bench allowed that opportunity in this game at least: Miller with 19 points, Jones 8 assists (Bulls +24 in his minutes), Hield had 13, Essengue with that 1 block and 3 steals guarding the center spot, Okoro with 12 points and his usual solid defense. They won the Bulls the possession battle and therefore the game.

So the Bulls are 1-1 in season record, as well as ‘number of games that were interesting versus rendered useless’. They face an opponent Saturday that’s in between the chasm between Milwaukee and Toronto in the still-healthy-for-now Washington Wizards.

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No word on whether there was discussion of outright cancelling the game due to lack of interest.

I mean, I’m pretty interested to see how the Bulls fare against a much worse opponent than the Raptors, but also there’s 80 more after this.

Now, are the Bucks that much worse than the Bulls? I kind of half-committed to this in my season preview, but will repeat: casually analyzing every roster’s current-season talent, I don’t believe the Bulls are better than any team in the East, including Milwaukee post-Giannis:

Bulls injury report added Josh Giddey after he somewhat-sheepishly admitted he was ‘playing through a wrist thing’, but he’s available to play. Jordan Hawkins is off the injury report but Tiago Splitter said pregame that Hawkins wouldn’t dress. Nic Claxton remains out.

I’ve posted the chat below, come on by during the daytime!

You definitely cannot learn from that final quarter and a half, which was when Noa Essengue, Tobe Awaka, and Jaylin Sellers all got action1. I didn’t watch past the 4th quarter, and won’t be taking any stats (thanks NBA.com!) from that time after they entered.

This is to more effectively and accurately rag on the rest of ‘em, a Bulls team that was almost universally terrible.

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That includes Caleb Wilson, who should lead every recap because he’s who is important. Wilson was2 inefficient-but-not-abysmal from the floor (4/10 for 10 points including 1/3 from three), but his floor game and overall production was otherwise pretty awful. 5 turnovers to 0 assists, a single rebound and a single steal and a single block. There were several open floor turnovers that just can’t happen if the Bulls (led by Wilson) are to be a menace in transition. They had so few opportunities in the first place.

But do you want to know the horrible truth? Or do you want to see a couple highlights?!?

The other young cornerstone, Matas Buzelis, came into his 3rd year all talk and at least in one game had nothing to back it up. 14 minutes, 1-6 for 3 points. It didn’t even seem like he was in the game for much of it. In his opening stint he didn’t even attempt a shot.

As a team, the main problem on offense3 in this game was that there was no paint penetration by the guards. Well, Norm Powell (Raptors legend) did a bit, and with a lot of foul-baiting in the 2nd quarter he was able to - with the help of some missed bunnies by the Raptors - keep the deficit around 20 instead of 30.

But their lead guard, Josh Giddey, was terrible. Not a total zero as he was able to several times have drives and dump-off passes to Jalen Smith (best Bull tonight?). But he seemingly had zero confidence in his floater, so later when the Raptors played the pass he was turning the ball over.

The Raptors in general were a menace defensively. Both teams were physical in that they fouled a ton, but the Raptors also forced turnovers, 14 to the Bulls forcing 3.

They may be one of the better defenses in the entire league (and one of the better overall teams: I was really impressed with Scottie Barnes’s improved offensive polish, and it’s something to hopefully look forward to from the Bulls young forwards), so I will give Giddey more chances. And it’s not like his backup, Tre Jones, did much better creating offense.

But maybe this is more than just one game of sample size, because of how bad it was4. Giddey not only played poorly, he looked demonstrably checked-out in the 2nd half (you could say less demonstrably but still checked-out in the first half, he had a goose egg and only 4 field goal attempts and a single trip to the line!) and then after the game Giddey said he’s nursing a wrist injury from preseason, though that was never on the injury report.

Maybe it was due to something Tiago Splitter (heck of a debut, coach) saw in the starting lineup this game, but a 1st quarter rotation decision to go all-bench made for a really tough watch. They were all really bad individually, but Splitter should figure they can’t succeed without at least one of Giddey, Powell, and (I suppose) Buzelis on the court. If that’s too hard to accomplish with the existing starting lineup, move Giddey to 6th man.

As it stood in this game, both point guards were terrible and it meant the shot quality on these 3 point looks were not good, and that was part of the reason the Bulls shot 3/23 from distance in the competitive portion of the game. Immanuel “gets ragged on for being paid more than Josh Giddey” Quickley hit 4 threes himself for Toronto.

In my season preview, I was suspecting the Bulls would do nothing particularly well as a team. In fairness in this game, they had a very good offensive rebound percentage of 31.8% and absurd free throw rate, and defensively did well holding Toronto to an eFG% under 50%. But their own eFG% was 33.6%, they gave up 37.2% of offensive boards, and I already mentioned the turnovers. Just imagine if the Raptors shot well!?!

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The worst seasons I’ve covered in terms of win total, has been:

• 23 wins, the first year of the blog’s existence, the ‘03-’04 season. With Kirk Hinrich the first Paxson-drafted ‘baby Bull’ of that era and Scott Skiles being hired mid-way through.

• 22 wins apiece in ‘18-’19 and ‘19-’20 seasons, the 2nd and 3rd seasons of the Jimmy Butler trade aftermath. A majority of it coached by Jim Boylen.

I truly believe this team, this season, has that special mixture of ingredients to be the worst.

I just can’t see them performing well in any of the four factors on either side of the ball. They will struggle to win the possession battle, and be inefficient with the possessions they do have (and allow). There is talent on the roster, but it comes in forms that are either: productive but not helpful (Giddey1), productive but not enough (Jones, Smith), or counterproductive in spite of development gains (Wilson, Buzelis).

There’s also the NBA’s competition shift towards, well, competition. The recently-disposed-of regime of AKME with their revered coach Billy Donovan geared everything towards winning that night’s game, whether in terms of roster construction, playing rotation, or playing style2.

Many other teams did not do that, even when they had similar talent level to the Bulls3. And it helped the Bulls beef up their win total the past few seasons. That won’t be the case this year, with the tanking incentives totally written out in the new Lottery rules.

This is all doom and gloom…if you’re concerned about win total! In my opinion we shouldn’t be concerned, and hopefully Bryson Graham isn’t either4. It doesn’t seem like Graham is concerned over win total, between his refreshingly honest assessment of the team’s current caliber, and the developmental plan for his players, as insightfully reported on by Joel Lorenzi at The Athletic:

In their standard briefings during camp, the team presented each player with their personalized KPIs. Analytics, goals. A map of what this season should look like.
…
Things are more structured, Buzelis said. Drills are more intentional. The words “intense” and “strict” are loosely tossed around.

Roles are defined. Noa Essengue, drafted last year as a 6-foot-9 ball of putty, now has obtainable, short-term tasks: chase ball handlers and weaponize his length.

Buzelis went on to say how this camp had him feeling the team would be better than people think. Reader, I assure you: if Noa Essengue plays a lot of minutes with this kind of individual developmental goal in mind, he will be a better prospect…and the Bulls will be a worse team.

But that’s good! It’s an ethos most importantly applied to Caleb Wilson, but also look to see in the early going if Essengue and Swain are getting minutes.

I think there’s a consensus miss when discussing franchises’ motivations when not applying a distinction between “trying to lose” and “not trying to win”. And then drilling down to say “not trying to win, but trying to foster key players’ development and surrounding them with functional lineups”. And then you can drill down further to say “…on offense”.

Altogether, despite my dire expectations for performance, I am extremely interested in seeing Wilson and his cohort get better, and how the front office and coaching staff helps that. And that extends to literally “seeing”, as it should be a very watchable product if things go right.

Reminder, subscribe! I’ll post a chat thread before the game with rosters/lineups for both teams.

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It’s truly not that big of a deal as a singular act. It’s potentially a bad signal, compounded with the 2nd round of the draft nonsense, that Bryson Graham was hired because he’s pliable. And as I keep saying: even if true, that doesn’t mean Graham can’t be successful.

What gets me is the reporting around it. KC Johnson works for the team broadcast partner, so this language used makes sense from that perspective:

Plan is to keep 15th roster spot open for now. That could change moving forward but offers flexibility.

But worse when Will Gottlieb of CHGO, who is almost universally really good about this stuff and correctly called out the Bulls being cheap on the second night of the draft, is parroting the ‘logic’:

Bulls still have the room exception, which allows them to take in up to $9.3M without sending any money out.

Smarter to leave the roster spot open so they can use it at the deadline to help a team get cheaper in exchange for draft compensation.

The part about the Room Exception is true. If the Bulls save that for the deadline and can get a better trade using it then than during roster crunch week, it was worth waiting.

But the roster spot has nothing to do with the cap exception, or flexibility in general. Everyone was wrong when they said it after the draft, and they are wrong now.

I don’t know how to be superlatively clear about this: there is no flexibility lost in occupying that roster spot. The only qualifier is that the player is signed without dipping into that Room Exception. It can be at minimum salary and even non-guaranteed, you know, the exact kind of contract that the 15th man on one of the league’s worst teams could reasonably hope to get anyway.

Then if you need a roster spot later in the season around the trade deadline, you ‘gain flexibility’ by cutting that guy! Or, heck, maybe he outplays someone else on the roster and you cut them instead, that would be true flexibility, right?

In the meantime, there is the remote possibility of finding a diamond in the rough - hey waitaminute, wasn’t Graham’s justification for selling the 2nd round picks was the confidence he could find such guys? - or the very likely possibility that the player would simply help in the locker room and on the practice floor if not potentially on the court given how many injuries all teams have during the marathon regular season.

That is very little value, to be sure. But it is more than zero, and zero is the amount of ‘cost’ incurred by signing a 15th man.

I’m defining that as the implicit cost of hampering roster construction. There are many teams in the league that keep roster spots open for those reasons:

A handful of these teams are right up against a hard cap and don’t have the ability to add a 15th man to their standard rosters at this point. That’s the situation for the Cavaliers, Pacers, and Sixers.

Many others are operating in luxury tax territory or right near the tax line and will want to keep that 15th spot open for now in order to either keep their projected tax bill in check or maintain some financial flexibility. Aprons are also a consideration here. Adding a 15th man would push the Knicks over the second apron, for example.

That’s from HoopsRumors.com, who continue:

Not all of these teams face cap- or apron-related constraints though. The Bulls are far clear of the tax, for instance, and could comfortably make a roster addition if they want to.

They don’t want to. There is no possible reason not to want to, besides the explicit cost of cash. And this is cash for a team that has the league’s 3rd lowest payroll expense, over $34M clear of the luxury tax.

This is another example of handwringing, to be sure, but I’m doing my part to at least make such handwringing consistent. In the second round of the draft, Bryson Graham and the Bulls were simply being cheap and gaining cash, and many called that out. If1 they go into the season without filling the last roster spot, the only thing gained is not flexibility, but cash not paid to that player.

It’s not the end of the world, it doesn’t mean the Bulls can never win and that Bryson Graham can’t succeed under these ‘constraints’. But it is, as plain as day, them being cheap.

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While Bulls head coach Tiago Splitter said his playing rotation in this game would be more true to the regular season, he abandoned ship pretty quickly and got 2-Way Contract guard Jaylin Sellers a first half look.

This from the Bulls broadcast1 is pretty funny:

Haven't seen lot of Jordan Hawkins (but Dan Hurley, his college coach, has been consistently advocating for him via Twitter) but Bulls' 2-way players can play. Sellers with strong debut tonight, building off his strong summer league. Tobe Awaka, currently sidelined, has been good

So we got that going for us! I do genuinely applaud new GM Bryson Graham’s use of the 2-Way Contract spots, a distinct improvement over his predecessor. Between them and some young active roster players, the GLeague team could be relatively interesting.

Tobe Awaka is needed with the big club right now with so many center injuries likely extending into the season2 , and can be active for up to 50 games on his 2-Way deal.

The other guys are likely out of the rotation. It’s probably not a coincidence that Noa Essengue had his most productive moments of the preseason against the Bucks G-League caliber team.

I just hope he gets minutes, which with the Bulls crowded frontcourt (all power forwards) means GLeague. Simply physically surviving in a professional league will be an improvement over his rookie year. And if any of Wilson, Buzelis, and Miller get hurt, then he can join the regular season rotation.

It was interesting to see against the Bucks that Splitter didn’t play Dailyn Swain the entire first half. I knew I had reason to worry that Splitter - as a head coach, it’s natural - praising Okoro in training camp meant he’d be a veteran binkie to comfort Splitter after seeing Swain’s abysmal play. And this was a game that saw Okoro held out, and still Swain didn’t crack the rotation.

I wonder how Graham feels about his lottery pick who had 3 years in college being relegated to ‘developmental’ status so soon. Maybe they really do see him as a long-term project (fix broken shot, develop PG skills) that needs the GLeague, at least to start his rookie season.

Or maybe Graham - not the coach, so this is natural too - looks at Okoro and a couple other veterans as “in the way”. Graham has certainly expressed his desire to balance out the roster with veterans, but can likely spare one or two and they’re all fungible3.

The Bulls have an open roster spot (they technically have many open roster spots) and a ton of room under the Luxury Tax. It looks like the new standard for getting picks in trades is not just taking on bad money but ALSO sending back a serviceable player on a neutral-or-better-value salary.

There’s the trade deadline which will offer more flexibility and perhaps some increased value after a solid first half of the season, but now is the time to ‘help’ other teams in a roster crunch looking to save them money. Like how good of a draft asset (pick or swap) would the Lakers offer for Okoro in exchange for likely roster casualties Jaden Hardy and Dalton Knecht? Or the Mavericks if you take on Caleb Martin’s ‘27-’28 guaranteed $9M?

There’s gaining the asset, and the other benefit of forcing Swain into the rotation.

Graham will defend any inactivity with wanting to remain flexible at the deadline, but that’s only true in whether they use the Room Exception to complete a trade. In terms of available roster spots, they could create one by waiving players, most likely whomever they’d get in a hypothetical trade now.

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Tiago Splitter was given a pretty wonky, unbalanced roster in his first season coaching the team. Most noticeable is that he has four 22-and-under forwards (two of which need to start and play a lot) who have overlapping positives/negatives and are most likely best as 4s. It’s been a silver lining that so many preseason injuries to bigs (even Smith and Awaka have missed a game apiece, while Claxton and Collins have yet to play at all) means that we can see some center-less lineups with 2 to 3 of Wilson, Buzelis, Miller, and Essengue on the floor at the same time.

I’m not so sure these lineups are an objectively good thing for their development, and it’s definitely bad for defensive efficiency. But it is getting them all out on the court to give us lots of tape.

Miller has actually been the most consistent producer, following up a 12 point game versus the Grizzlies with a 26 point one against the Nuggets. I noticed he improved in a key area: but out the constant adjusting of his shorts that he was doing in that Grizzlies game:

I have been less impressed with the other three judging them on a curve of their size and athleticism: I’m aping Moon in the comments here: they are all showing flashes at points (even Essengue, defensively), but there’s a simple lack of production that’s raising a red flag:

It’s coach-speak to say there’s a lack of “physicality” and “force” from these Bulls, and I personally (as someone not a coach or anywhere close) don’t want to use those terms in place of “young” and “skinny”. But maybe the latter terms are excuses.

I mentioned the positive flashes, and one of those didn’t show up in the box score somehow where Wilson had a top-5-percentile-athletically chasedown block. It was following his own turnover, but I actually think Wilson’s skills have looked pretty good. I had to chuckle at Bulls Roundtable saying “Yes, Memphis sat its starters in the second half. Who cares?” when it came to Wilson putting up a zero in the first half of that game. But outside of opponent context he’s showing touch and fluidity on offense that I didn’t expect so soon:

These past two preseason games also has me thinking this will be a truly dreadful season:

1. Lack of interior size and rim protection. Not much perimeter defense either, skip.

2. Inability to win possessions - even if Claxton helps #1, he is not a good defensive rebounder. And the theory of the Bulls athletes generating turnovers remains a theory, whereas their own turnovers are very much evident.

3. Inconsistent three point shooting - we knew this going in, and so we will see a half like in Denver where Buddy Hield got hot1, but I don’t expect any of their high-usage players outside of Powell to be even league-average from distance.

But is this a ‘concern’? Not really. The 3rd one will be a bit problematic if it means Wilson and Buzelis are stunted a bit trying to generate offense from inside a phone booth. But the giving up a ton of points and losing a ton of games, meh…

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Let’s zoom out, first: I think this team will have very few victories this season. But I don’t care, and based off of their comments this training camp, I don’t think the Bulls braintrust1 much cares either.

What they (and I) care about is how certain players develop over the course of a season. And that is a tricky balance not so much in terms of winning games, but if the lineups these players are in provide good laboratories for them to grow. You want players pushed within a role, but don’t want them to be so overmatched in that role it junks the entire lineup.

What looks to be the largest variable in this dynamic is Dailyn Swain running point guard. While Swain performed better offensively in this preseason game than he did in all of Summer League, he severely struggled handling defensive pressure, with 3 turnovers in his 22 minutes including an 8-second violation. This is a case where I don’t so much worry about his own development as a future lead ballhandler, it’s as if his struggles making the whole lineup inoperable offensively, except in transition. We can’t even be sure that Swain would have even played PG minutes if not for the late scratch of Tre Jones. Would he have played much at all? But interesting to note that the Bulls don’t have an emergency/3rd PG on the roster after trading Rob Dillingham.

There’s a similar situation at Center, where the injury to Nic Claxton (and perpetual absence of Zach Collins) meant a starting nod to Jalen Smith and the backup being Undrafted Rookie 2-Way signing Tobe Awaka. Both played well on offense (Smith with two 3s, Awaka with 6 offensive rebounds) but the lack of rim protection means there was a lot of stress on the perimeter defenders, particularly Caleb Wilson.

This is bad lede-ing! Here’s what you all came to see: Wilson’s offensive highlights in his preseason debut:

But Wilson was a very rough watch on the defensive end, a tweener not able to stay up on the perimeter and a lack of strength in the defensive frontcourt. Again, I’m not concerned about better team defense translating to victories, but will having a better rim protector allow Wilson to better grow as a disruptor on defense?

Even if so, I’m not sure it’s worth the downgrade on offense to not have Smith play a lot. Both Wilson and Matas Buzelis were dreadful shooting the ball (combined 0-10 from three including several airballs) but scored inside when there was space for them.

It’s only one game, but I’m wondering if the Nic Claxton acquisition was a mistake in priorities. He will help the team’s record to provide better defense and better turnover generation towards transition offense, but I am concerned with a lack of spacing from the non-Wilson&Buzelis spots (Norm Powell was good, Giddey was Giddey) making the half court offense of both should-be-high-usage forwards too challenging.

This extends down the rotation, and we will have to see how Tiago Splitter wants to play based on who he plays. Preseason, with the absence of Claxton and shockingly-critical Jones, isn’t going to be the most informative example but I have some early ideas under the unlikely scenario everyone is healthy and available:

Starters should be Giddey/Powell/Wilson/Buzelis/Smith. Claxton is higher-paid but doesn’t have the status belying a guaranteed starting spot, especially coming back from injury and missing all of camp.

Then off the bench I figure Jones and Swain as guards, which hopefully means not requiring Swain to bring the ball up the court. Leonard Miller as backup forward (maybe their best 22-and-under performer last night?). With Claxton as backup center, I would prefer Buddy Hield getting the next nod in the rotation over Okoro due to his shooting. Okoro, Pat Williams, and Noa Essengue don’t need to play, with the latter being sent to the GLeague to get a lot of minutes, if only to stress test his physical readiness. I don’t put Essengue over Miller in terms of priority of development just due to draft status.

Again, that’s all in the regular season and with everyone healthy. We have a few preseason games to go and there may be more absences planned or unplanned. There are 2 games this weekend, Friday at home versus The Grizzlies and Sunday in Denver.

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Zach Collins was hurt before the first practice, which is not unexpected. A bit less expected is the injury to Nic Claxton, who is out “a couple weeks” with a hamstring injury. That means the Bulls at the center position tonight need to play Jalen Smith ‘up’ (he says he’s taller!), and rely on Two-Way signing and undrafted free agent Tobe Awaka.

And speaking of Two-Way players, the Bulls filled their last opening this week with the recently traded-and-waived Jordan Hawkins. Hawkins was, with all due respect, a draft bust of new Bulls GM Bryson Graham during his time in New Orleans, with the Pelicans picking him 14th overall in 2023. Hawkins is entering his age-24 season so this is really a make-or-break opportunity for him to even stay in the NBA. Good news for him is that the Bulls do need what he (theoretically possesses), movement shooting from the guard position.

I don’t know if Hawkins is available to be in Tiago Splitter’s first preseason playing rotation as head coach of the Bulls. It’s the most basic form of coaching analysis to just look at the playing rotation, but for a franchise that is (self-admittedly, finally!) in a rebuild and targeting (or at least paying lip service to) player development as a goal for the season, it’s important.

So I was a bit worried that Isaac Okoro is getting this much shine from the coach, but will wait to see who is on the court tonight to judge. We know Caleb Wilson and Matas Buzelis will be starting, and that is enough to want to watch.

Game Time is 7pm Central on CHSN. Chat about it below!

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If you weren’t aware of last-week-in-September trades, a couple days before camp was set to open the Bulls traded 21.7 year old Rob Dillingham for 33.8 year old Buddy Hield.

There weren’t any other draft assets involved, and the cap and cash is fairly negligible1. At first glance, one could consider this move a bit odd for a rebuilding2 team, but: while the Bulls should be taking chances on young players, there are diminishing returns when you have too many of them, and it’s more important to foster development of the more important prospects.

In this case, it’s all about Caleb Wilson. And so all acquisitions are how to best provide support for him to grow as a player. In theory, Buddy Hield can provide spacing for Wilson and others (it’s a roster in desperate need of shooting). As stated, it’s only a theory. Another theory is that Hield is totally washed, the Atlanta Hawks - where new Bulls GM Bryson Graham worked before coming here - apparently thought so as he was outside of their rotation after being a spare-parts acquisition last trade deadline. So I am not too anticipatory of the scenario where Hield resurrects his career and is a positive-value trade candidate this coming February.

But there’s another non-negligible characteristic to Hield that Dillingham could not possibly possess: Hield has always been widely regarded as a ‘good locker room guy’. So even if he doesn’t play, or can’t play well, maybe Hield can still help in other ways versus a very young player trying to stay in the league. Maybe in ten years Caleb Wilson (ascended superstar at this point!) will call Hield “my vet”.

As for the rest of the roster, there hasn’t been much since Graham hit the ground runn…er, hit the ground and slowly trotted. It’s only been one offseason, but it was one where the Bulls had a ton of cap flexibility, so it is still a bit disappointing that he talked big but executed like a small market3. I mentioned the rationale for not keeping Dillingham along with everyone else 25-and-under, but it is pretty bogus (that’s right! bogus!) that the Bulls are entering Training Camp with one open active roster spot and one open two-way spot. It’s one thing to not want to use the Room Exception now and potentially save it for trade-making season, but there is no reason why these spots can’t be filled now (theoretically, you can get better players if signing them to a spot instead of having a tryout) and simply cut them later this year if they needed that roster flexibility back.

I don’t think I’m going to be disappointed in what Graham says to open training camp. I expect Graham to preach patience but set mild expectations, and actually demonstrate that at the very least he is realistic in how far he and the franchise he’s leading still has to go. I also expect him to say “that’s a good question” to every reporter there, and for the reporters to agree.

It’s a low bar, but: like his actions, Graham’s words are loads better than the last guy. Maybe if Arturas Karnisovas got to open his first training camp after drafting Wilson at #4 overall instead of Patrick Williams, we would’ve given him more of a honeymoon period.

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In terms of personnel, it’s an altogether uninspired performance by Graham, where the praise is some variation of “he didn’t do anything catastrophically wrong”. They’re even leaving open an active roster spot and not using their Cap Exception (‘Room’, ~$9M), with Graham carrying forward a Bulls GM tradition of future flexibility masking a low payroll.

But the roster is just one part of organization-helming, though the most important. How about the coaching, front office, scouting? These are facets unencumbered by a salary cap but in another Bulls tradition has seen low attention (money), that Graham said would be a focus but couched it in ways he likely also did in the interview process with his future boss Michael Reinsdorf and his consigliere John Paxson.

I feel a need to emphasize that I don’t consider the following as a top priority, but a nice to have: I wanted Graham to not only bring in new blood, but more blood.

And there wasn’t enough of either when it comes to the front office (including scouting). The Bulls look to have taken down their public-facing staff directory, and I can’t/won’t do the legwork to truly nail this down, but the initial hiring did look like a one-in, one-out policy with too many holdovers for my taste. I do appreciate that Graham changed over the GLeague staff (including replacing Billy Donovan’s son with former non-GloryYears Bull Quincy Pondexter as head coach), with those hires and their selection of 2-way contracts indicating that they are trying to bring ‘development’ back to the GLeague instead of populating the team with minor league ticket draws.

This could be an incomplete house-cleaning due to contracts1 and Graham feeling he needs time to evaluate. I’m far from convinced, but will give him some time and recognize that this is all of far lower importance than Caleb Wilson’s rookie year, though unlike the drafting of Wilson it is actually in Graham’s control to do correctly.

The coaching staff, led by new head coach Tiago Splitter, has more new faces than the front office. The final hires were part of an official announcement yesterday:

Tiago Splitter – Head Coach*
Wes Unseld Jr. – Assistant Coach
Blake Ahearn – Assistant Coach*
Jamelle McMillan – Assistant Coach*
Rex Kalamian – Assistant Coach*
Jonah Herscu – Assistant Coach*
Taj Gibson – Assistant Coach*
Martin Rancik – Senior Player Development Coach*
Jordan Brink – Assistant Coach, Director of Player Development*
Pete Crawford – Player Development Coach
LD Williams – Player Development Coach
Jeremiah Bonsu – Head Video Coordinator
Micah Bruno – Assistant Video Coordinator
Brandon Leftwich – Video Coordinator*
Delvon Johnson – Video Coordinator*
Jayden Hardaway – Video Coordinator*

I starred the new hires, as you can see very few holdovers from Billy Donovan’s staff. And I originally typed “Graham’s new hires” but in a press answer earlier this summer it seemed like Graham was deferring these decisions - specifically whether they’d hire a shooting coach - to Splitter. And, no: they did not hire a shooting coach. Every coaching staff has some mix of benefactors, and I don’t doubt Bulls legend (of actual GloryYears) Taj Gibson was suggested by ownership.

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It was admittedly too much to ask after the euphoria inducing shitcanning of AKME that this would be a completely new regime. The owner’s son and adopted son led the search for Graham, after all. As all Bulls leaders past and present have in common2: tell us these things take time, and we’ll sit around and hope they get lucky.

For a refresher on the rules, plus commentary on the unfortunate catchiness in spite of inaccuracy of the name, this from Tom Ziller:

In May the NBA adopted its latest batch of draft lottery reforms. It's a broad shift in how the best picks in a draft are decided and could have broad impacts on strategic team-building over time. One element is the lottery penalty the three worst teams will face. Media has been referring to this as "the relegation zone," but it's not relegation. That has a meaning in sports, and this ain't it. I propose we call it the "Zone of Shame." You know, like the plastic cone dogs have to wear after surgery so they don't lick their wounds, getting them infected and disgusting. As the "Zone of Shame" is an anti-tanking measure, and tanking is an abomination, it seems appropriate.

Like Ziller, I think the latest revisions to the lottery rules seem great. And one of the reasons is that it removes galaxy-brain discourse surrounding team-rebuilding strategy: what should be a straightforward season-long mission of “be young, and maybe not good, but try to improve pools of current players and future assets” was overtaken by short-term haphazard ideas mostly being blatant self-sabotage to increase percentage points in a game of chance. These ideas grew out of control in my opinion, from sitting healthy players for the final week of a lost season to going into the season (or multiple seasons!) not merely trying to rebuild and losing games as a byproduct but making as many regular season losses as possible the goal.

A new discourse surrounding a motivation for teams to be out of the ‘relegation zone’ is not nearly as annoying. Very simply because it advocates for winning games versus losing them. But it does have a similar fundamental issue, where regular season record is the measure of success.

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Perhaps the best expressed trait of Bryson Graham’s early tenure running the Chicago Bulls (and in stark opposite of his predecessor) is that he seems to correctly assess - and says so to the media - that his team is extremely far away from contention and will be very bad next season. And now that the offseason has died down - with the Bulls business more concluded than others - we are starting to see 2025-26 win projections that place a good chance that the Bulls will have one of the three worst records in the league.

It makes sense to me that they’ll lose more than last year, where even their post-deadline tank left them with an inflated win total due to:

1. Billy Donovan

2. Opponents tanking/resting earlier and more proficiently

3. Clutch-time luck

The actual roster may very well be worse this year too, especially if Donovan’s departure means that playing time no longer needs to be earned, but instead simply given to young prospects.

And it should, because that is the generic mission of a rebuilding year: improve the current young players while also improving the base of assets.

And Graham looks to have made moves with those goals in mind. He acquired veterans and held on to others with the theory that their playing time will not take away from the Future Core but instead foster their development1. Plus those players are signed to contracts that theoretically2 will be tradeable for positive value in return, not traded merely to make the Bulls worse after they’re gone.

Because that last mentioned tactic, increasing chances to win the 2027 Draft Lottery, is an example of ‘improving asset base’, but to a much smaller degree. So small that I believe it should not even be considered when evaluating transactions. Just today the Bulls surfaced in rumors to be in the mix for Clippers’ restricted free agent Bennedict Mathurin, and such a pursuit should be judged against present (he’s only 24) and long-term value, not if Mathruin will help the Bulls win enough games to stay out of the bottom three.

And, for my own sanity, I don’t think Bulls fans should consider this year’s regular season win total in relation to the bottom-three of the league a factor either. It will be a successful season if The New Young Core (Caleb Wilson far and away the most important) improves, and if Graham can obtain more future assets, even if they finish in the relegation zone for this next draft lottery.

If it’s tough to unlearn galaxy-brain thinking in the face of simple motivations, consider this: the 2028 draft looks to be way better (at least more top-heavy) than 2027. And if the Bulls did get a top-5 pick next year (to repeat: they’d have a better chance of a top-5 pick if they’re not in the relegation zone) after selecting 4th this past draft, a different recently-implemented lottery rule would be enforced to where the Bulls literally could not have a top-5 pick in 2028.

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Caleb Wilson

Wilson put up consistent production through his 4 Summer League games, though never again reaching the heights of his debut. Finished with 23.5 points on 50% shooting (42% from three), 7.3 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 2.5 blocks.

In his final game versus the SummerLakers, Wilson overall played, per John Hollinger, “kinda brutal”. Yet Wilson was still able to generate a three-and-dunk combo highlight:

Here is our old friend Ricky at old site SBNation on Wilson’s change in shot profile.

A study by Owen Phillips showed that three-point rate (percentage of field goal attempts from three) is the “stickiest” stat of summer league — the one that carries over the best to the regular season. Well, Wilson moved his three-point rate from 9.1% at UNC to 47.1% for the Summer Bulls.

As Ricky emphasizes, it’s exciting to see this kind of dramatic improvement so quickly as it potentially indicates how eager and driven Wilson is to improve as a player. It’s something Wilson certainly talks about as very important to him, and very cool to see it on the court in the initiation of his Bulls career.

Another area of improvement for Wilson, as Ricky relays, is his playmaking. The assist-to-turnover ratio went backwards in SummerLeague versus college.

As Will Gottlieb of CHGO concurs, this Summer League was a resounding success for Wilson:

Caleb's highlights per 36 might lead the league. Super productive. Shot is a real weapon.

But he's got a ton of work to do: attention to detail, patience, consistency, strength, handle all need to improve.

He's already good, and still has a lot of room left to grow

Dailyn Swain

Here’s a the Dailyn Swain highlight of Thursday’s game:

Unfortunately that was pretty much it for Swain, his lone field goal and across 4 games he shot 4-31 from the field. Swain was moved off the ball more as the SL went on, but that relative lack of responsibility hasn’t helped.

Bust?!?! No, not yet, but being bad in Summer League is worse than being good. Would it have helped Swain if the Bulls deployed a ‘pure’ point guard on his squad? Maybe, but only helped him look good in these games this year. I can see the argument that for his long-term development he should be tasked with more responsibility, not less.

Noa Essengue

Speaking of responsibilities, it looks like while Swain is given opportunity to fail, Noa Essengue has already lost trust from the new administration that did not draft him. Essengue went from starting, to off the bench in the second half, to being the 8th man playing 11 minutes (and committing 7 fouls in that time!) on Thursday.

Was that deserved? Hollinger thinks there’s some bias working against him.

hasn't been amazing but there's also some Not Our Guy syndrome happening.

One can squint and see positives in the minutes he was on the floor, but it appears that Tiago Splitter, who was the one directly benching him in that second game and remained in Vegas even though no longer head coach of the SummerBulls, doesn’t like the cut of Essengue’s jib. I’m speculating a bit, but it is likely a combination of subjective body language and objective body-on-the-ground that has Splitter believing Essengue is simply not physically ready for the NBA.

Looking like the GLeague for Noa Essengue in his second season, which is not too negative a position given his significant injury and significantly young age (he’s younger than both Swain and Wilson).

I don’t have an opinion on Jaylin Sellers and Tobe Awaka, the two 2-way contracts on the roster. I’d just like to remind everyone that if Sellers is looking productive in Summer League and (likely) on the GLeague roster, he’s helped by being 3 and a half years older than Essengue.

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This week, Jamal Collier of ESPN1 posted one of these for the Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley era. It’s not the most explosive version of this kind of story, but it does reveal some interesting characteristics of this failed regime that only got worse in the past 5 years.

There isn’t a single detail that needs to be quoted, it’s more of a general pattern: AKME got more insular and defensive as mistakes piled up. This description of behavior was reported by Joe Cowley (so, caveats there…) after the 2024-25 season when player development head Peter Patton was fired. In Collier’s piece it seems to have started as early as in the build up to AKME’s first draft in 2020, where “multiple people in the scouting and analytics departments pushed” for Tyrese Haliburton over Patrick Williams.

I think Collier makes an important point here, after passing along that these same staffers also “liked” Williams quite a bit in draft prep:

Draft day mistakes happen, even in the best organizations, but staffers were more concerned by how long it took for Karnisovas and Eversley to come to terms with this misfire.

Poor evaluation skills and being too slow to react to those evaluations: that was the AKME way.

But this article seems to push the thesis that there was a different, more consequential issue: they weren’t collaborative enough.

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Keep in mind why this is the throughline of the article: the sources want to separate themselves from what was a complete organizational failure2, and some quoted still work for the Bulls. Some undoubtedly postdate AND predate AKME.

This is all a red flag to me. In AKME’s position, to succeed not just in staying employed but winning games, it’s more important to be correct than collaborative. And remember the situation they were coming into, an absolute wreckage brought on by the prior ten years of GarPax rule. I think both executives actually deserve some credit for taking personal responsibility in the wake of ownership clearly foisting franchise lifers onto them. AKME did things their way, and didn’t blame ownership ‘direction’, as their avoiding a rebuild was as much an AKME and Billy Donovan philosophy as it was for anyone above them.

Obviously, “their way” turned out to be stupid and terrible, but what accomplishments do these GarPax remnants have to suggest their way is better?

This post-mortem isn’t merely piling on a closed chapter of the Bulls, it’s informative to speculate on Bryson Graham’s ability to succeed.

The general sentiment when it comes to the newly-hired head man is that he is valuing staffers’ input and it’s producing a better “vibe”. However, this specific change is not making me feel good!

Some longtime Bulls executives, sidelined under Karnisovas, have been more active in internal team operations, sources told ESPN. That includes Paxson, who is now a senior adviser, and Brian Hagen, who has been with the organization since 2012 and was an assistant GM under Paxson and former general manager Gar Forman.

Collier mentions the external search firm that produced a list of VP candidates, but it was the extremely internal John Paxson who was part of the interview process. Paxson was also reportedly part of the coaching search, a nugget of information which gave me the creeps, especially when compounded by how many GarPax+AKME staffers were being retained3 and called “very good and talented” by Graham in his introductory press conference.

While it’s unfortunate that Graham isn’t as autonomous as he should be, he is at least saying the right things regarding this criticism of AKME:

“I’m not trying to come in and overcorrect. I’m just leading in the way that I believe is the proper way to lead. As you make decisions, you might convince your group when it gets down to the nitty-gritty. But earlier in the process, you just want to take in, and you want to hear from [everyone], and you want everyone focused on trying to give their absolute best to help make the right decision. And then ultimately I’ll take that information, process it and do what I need to.”

When mentioning Graham immediately upholding Bulls tradition when it comes to second round picks, one anonymous league source said "I just think that there's a certain way that they operate, and I don't see the fundamental core of that changing."

That may be indeed the case. But Graham may still perform better than AKME, because “player and team evaluation” is a way more important characteristic than “makes John Paxson feel valued”. Fluffing the self-admittedly-out-of-touch consigliere is what can earn you the Bulls job, but it’s not what will help you succeed at it.

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Included in that highlight package is one from the defensive end, a chasedown block that looked so good you wouldn’t be blamed for thinking he threw the errant behind-the-back pass on purpose to set it up.

Should we be concerned that almost none of Wilson’s attempts, let alone buckets, were in the paint?

No! Though it would dampen any Hall of Fame trajectory to figure some of these heaves were flukey. But why would you want to do that? Maybe Wilson is already looking like the biggest star the Bulls have had since Jimmy Butler.

I gave this Summer League game the kind of attention it deserved, a half-casual watch. I think it is worth noting that their opponent in the Grizzlies played several non-rookies1 plus the guy picked ahead of Wilson in Cameron Boozer.

The Bulls, meanwhile, were very inexperienced surrounding Wilson, including no established point guard. Dailyn Swain, more of a wing prospect not tasked with ballhandling much in college, was - as directed by Tiago Splitter - the lead playmaker for the SummerBulls.

Swain struggled personally and with offense-organizing duties, though he improved a bit in the 2nd half as described by on-the-ground Will Gottlieb of CHGO:

[Swain] looking overtaxed as the primary ball handler but was much more under control playing out of a closeout situation

And here’s a non-playmaking highlight:

As for functionally-a-rookie Noa Essengue, I was not happy he was wearing a baggy T-Shirt under his jersey. As for better analysis, I’ll leave it to Ricky:

As for some of the even-fringier members of the team, undrafted 2-way contract signee Jaylin Sellers earned consternation over his ballhogging (and shooting 4 of 13 didn’t help). I didn’t notice the other 2-way player Tobe Awaka and see in the box score that he had 6 fouls, with 6 combined attempts+rebounds+blocks.

The SummerBulls play again on Monday.

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Heading into his first transaction cycle as a lead decisionmaker, Bryson Graham undoubtedly entered a really bad situation. But a silver lining was that the roster was a fairly open canvas:

• only a couple multi-year contracts and several expiring (and value-neutral) ones

• nobody, save maybe Matas Buzelis, worth special consideration as a locked-in long-term foundational piece

• 2 first round picks this year, owning all going forward

• 2 second round picks and a +5 surplus going forward

• a potentially league-leading >$50M in cap space

And what Graham has come out of that with is:

• 4 prospects (2 drafted, 2 not) headlined by Caleb Wilson

• 3 short-term contracts to veterans in Norman Powell, Nic Claxton, and Zach Collins

• 2 future second-round pick swaps

Of course, there is a chance for more future value in trades later this month. And they still possess the “Room Exception” ($9.3M) even if no longer owning cap space. Because the Bulls re-signed Zach Collins with some of that space, he can be traded immediately, but I can’t know if that was the Bulls incentive. And every day that goes by into the 2nd-5th tiers of free agency and you see better (or at least more reliable) backup centers earning less and it looks like the Bulls genuinely want Collins on the team next year.

Similarly, with more significance, on the Powell and Claxton contracts: that these players were targeted so early means they were not mere ‘salary slots’, and to get praise for the moves Graham needs to be correct in thinking those players will be better than others in fostering the young players’ development, simultaneously gaining value.

If talking assessing praise versus finger-wags on this entire offseason, I’ll subjectively grade this a C-.

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This will move up an entire letter grade (I’m sure Graham is reading this, feeling assured) if the Dailyn Swain selection hits, as that was an instance where Graham’s purported strengths give him an advantage and Swain is more important as a potential long-term fixture.

Given that the Bulls did the very Bulls thing and hired someone new to the position, we don’t know much regarding Graham’s aforementioned ‘strengths’, but we’ve been told that he is a scouting and player development guy. Perhaps that extends to pro scouting with these veteran targets. I am genuinely heartened that the 2-Way roster spots are being treated with more consideration. Tiago Splitter is a major decision that could very well be another hit.

Hopefully all that, and Caleb Wilson being a star lucking into Graham’s lap, makes up for what looks to be an early deficiency in GM’ing: transactions

That the only, at least for now, long-term assets gained this offseason was those 2nd round pick swaps is more like a D to F grade. A team in a rebuild, armed with that much cap space and (what should be, anyway) ownership financial support, should be netting a lot more assets.

The league-wide trade market looks to be telling us that there aren’t high-value assets attached to salary dumps. But there are still some major dominoes to fall, at top of mind the LeBron James’s destination and Denver Nuggets impending luxury tax bill. That’s one of my major demerits of Graham’s strategy this offseason, in that he didn’t simply wait, especially after his post-draft equivocating over roster flexibility. This effectively-punting-to-next-season use of cap space is certainly better than misusing it, but should have been a backup plan after more fruitful paths dried up.

The other demerit is that it’s a reductive rationale to say these kinds of transactions are only worth it if you get a first round pick. Even if Graham has indicated he intends on carrying on Bulls tradition of not using them to draft players, 2nds are extremely useful transactional currency.

I’ll emphasize that taking on a bunch of dead money for 2nd round picks is not great business. It’s unlikely to produce much of anything too valuable in itself, but it generates value that can compound with other minor value to do something more significant in terms of getting the Bulls to title contention - which hopefully ownership realizes (they’re not great at business themselves) will make them a lot more money than whatever they save on payroll this year.

Instead, Graham’s actions on the margins look to be more about pleasing ownership1 short-term over that holy grail of a title:

• Keep payroll low by not waiving players with guaranteed contracts

• Targeting undrafted free agents and selling the 2nd round picks for cash

• Retain a bunch of front office and coaching staff from the prior regime(s)

• Overpay a Mark Bartelstein client2

The good part about failing on the margins like this is that it’s ultimately still the margins. Graham can do a good job overall, and improve3 overall even if still lagging behind in this facet.

Ultimately it’s disappointing that while Graham looks competent so far, he didn’t hit the ground running as some wunderkind. And I think it’s fair to feel this way even though it’s expected, as the Bulls aren’t going to make their own luck when it comes to hires.

It’s a one year deal, plus a team option for 2027-28, with a starting salary likely around $23M, the remainder of cap space the Bulls (after re-signing Zach Collins, which I’ll get to later).

The Bulls, coming into the offseason with the league’s largest hoard of cap space, now only have the room exception ($9.4M) available to outright acquire players. Being very far under the tax, they can also can take back more salary in a trade of an outgoing player.

Between those shrinking options, and new Bulls lead decisionmaker Bryson Graham’s public insistence on counting roster spots towards players who don’t need to be retained (meaning 1 spot remains), we can infer that the Bulls are nearly done with their offseason already.

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We have seen after recent CBA changes that ‘signing free agents from other teams’ is one of the least-used implementations of cap space. The league moved up free agency to early evening instead of midnight, but the relative scarcity of available players (most better ones either restricted or extended) has lessened the hype. Gone are the days where Cristiano Felicio re-signed a minute after midnight.

Powell is a great fit on the court next season for what the Bulls need around their young building blocks: high volume, pull-up shooting from someone who commands a lot of possession usage but isn’t a ballhog. This skillset isn’t needed so much to make the Bulls record better, but to help facilitate the development of this group of extremely young big men by providing spacing. To a lesser extent, Powell also has a solid locker room reputation and that can’t hurt what is a young (and likely very bad) team with a relatively-inexperienced Head Coach.

It’s very possibly the case that the Bulls, with this Powell signing, will have made the most significant free agency move in the league1.

That’s not too high of a distinction, of course. And this Powell signing, in isolation, is fine. But I’m a bit disappointed in how this with the other moves are now forming the larger context of how Bryson Graham is using his initial offseason to position his team for a long-term run at title contention.

As I said earlier, being in a rebuild is not advocating for a complete youth movement, instead you have a core of important players that you can help grow by acquiring competency around their skills and limitations. With loads of cap space and picks and being extremely (so extremely) far from relevance let alone title contention, Graham and the Bulls should be opportunistically in asset accumulation mode. While I praised lottery reform in part due to its killing galaxy-brain takes like ‘it’s good to purposefully sign sabotaging players because losing games is an important goal’, it should not change the overall motivation of a rebuilding team: to be young and have future assets2.

It’s not over, but in his first offseason Graham has been solid, but certainly not impressed me as some whiz-kid like he did to Michael Reinsdorf in the interview process. It would’ve been impressive if Graham found a way to target trade cast-offs and more modest value signings to help satisfy these somewhat-competing goals of player development through competent veterans and future assets. There are likely some major moves still to come where contending teams will look to move money and they may be desperate.

Instead, in acquiring Powell, Nic Claxton, and the truly-pointless-to-outright-bad re-signing of Zach Collins, the Bulls look to have struck early to pay market rate and gain zero assets. I’m sure it’s part of Graham’s plan to bank on the possibility of trading them for assets later3, but you’re taking a risk that they play to a level that adds value to their contract that you just set. And at their age and injury history, all three carry that risk.

Offseason isn’t over, and it’s a very long way to Graham’s first trade deadline. Plus there is a can-kicking element here where he very likely could have cap space next summer as well. But so far his first offseason has been kind of underwhelming. That degree of ‘whelm’ is dwarfed in praise if Caleb Wilson is a superstar, but given the team’s ownership limitations it is key for the front office to not only be capable4 but great. And this is not great.

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