FanPost

Olympic Basketball Semifinals Open Thread, Part 3!

LET"S GO!

Brackets:

Italy/France ------------------------| FRANCE

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Slovenia/Germany----------------| SLOVENIA

--------------------------------------------------------------------final

Spain/USA -------------------------| USA

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Australia/Argentina---------------| AUSTRALIA

Betting Lines:

Head to head:

USA / AUSTRALIA: 1.12 / 6.5

FRANCE / SLOVENIA: 2.11 / 1.77

Competition:

USA: 1.25

AUSTRALIA: 11

FRANCE: 9

SLOVENIA: 7

ANYONE BUT USA: 2.6

Betting Analysis:

Let me begin by celebrating my great win in the betting markets, nailing Rudy Gobert dropping 20+ on Italy at 7.5:1 payoff. One look at that front line and their historical performance told me that Rudy would eat them alive and eat he did. I am now a net winner of $64.04 in my lifetime, which puts me among the best 5-10% of bettors in all of human history (since 64 is not negative). Woohoo!

USA/Australia:

In retrospect, France was/is probably the best equipped team to take down the USA as you need a combination of low-post scorers and dribble penetration. The blueprint to take down America is to take Durant out of his game by getting him in foul trouble. The French pulled this off with Gobert in the low post and Fournier penetrating out of the pick and roll.

But Baynes is out and his replacement is not in the NBA. So maybe some kind of Ingles/Mills pick and roll could be a good method of attack. But honestly, I just do not see the path for the Australians. Maybe with some fluky fouls against Durant, hard nosed defense, Mills going off and the USA going cold from three.

I do not mind taking the under on a 179 point total (1.76:1) as I see the Aussies trying to muddy things up.

France / Slovenia:

France is a slight underdog, but the path to victory is clear. Cut the head off the snake! Batum must be Luca's shadow. Hit him with double teams / traps and let the rest of the Slovenian team beat you. So I do not hate France at 2.11:1, but probably won't bet it.

Allez les bleus!

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