Luis Scola 23 PPG! Olympic Basketball Open Thread, Part 2.

This is freakin' stupid. If Luis Scola can manage 23 PPG in Olympic competition, why the hell isn't Manu playing? Hell, why isn't Chapu playing?


Italy/France ------------------------|




Spain/USA -------------------------|




First round fixtures:

Slovenia/Germany: 1.09/7.3

Spain/USA: 6.25/1.11

Italy/France: 3.8/1.26

Australia/Argentina: 1.25/3.8


USA, 1.45:1

Slovenia, 6:1

France, 8:1

Australia, 11:1

Spain: 21:1

Italy 29:1

Anyone but the USA, 2.1:1.


The betting odds are heavily skewed by how many rounds you can go without facing the US. So while Spain/France/Slovenia are roughly equal, Slovenia and France are weighted more heavily since they can get to the final without playing the Americans.

So where is the value? The only four teams that I could see winning this competition are USA/Australia/Slovenia/France. So let's go through the list.

USA: The only time they were tested, they failed. But, as they get more reps, the cohesion advantage that teams like France and Spain have will fall away. I do not see Spain pulling off a victory, so, if the US goes down, it is against Australia in the 2nd round.

Australia: To me, the easy number two seed. They will see America early, possibly before they gel and have a coherent team. If they can beat the US, the tournament is theirs.

Slovenia: They beat Spain, but the fact is that Luca is the only solid NBA starter on that team. Seeing their center bricking flat-footed two's really demonstrates the talent discrepancy between the US and the rest of the world. But there is something there. They have some crafty players that seem like they should be in the NBA. And they only have to beat France to get to the final.

France: They beat the USA and I think this will be their gold medal. I think that Evan Fournier has under-performed recently in the NBA and I honestly think this is the real player. Maybe buy low on him this off-season? I am not particularly bullish on the French team this year but they have already proven me wrong once ...

The only value I can see is betting the Australians as their odds are lowered because they have to go through the Americans. But, the fact that they do this early is an advantage since they may get them while they are still an incoherent mess. Otherwise, buy the USA while you can get good odds. They have the talent, they just need the reps. Every round they survive gives them that much bigger of an advantage. So buy in now if you think they can win it.

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