Should you bet the under on the Bulls this year?

Another NBA projection came out this week, this time from Andrew Johnson of Nylon Calculus. He’s had good projections in the past!

. For the last two years I have been using projections based on a blend of my Player Tracking Plus-Minus and a multi-year Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus via Jerry Englemann as player talent estimates

There’s of course some subjective inputs

As always, there are many limitations to my methodology. Though I adjust for depth, estimated player quality, minutes played and age, there are many fit issues, coaching and most injury issues remain outside of my estimates. And yes, my model hates your team.

Does he hate the Bulls, though?

from Nylon Calculus

oh, dear.

That’s even fairly significantly under the Vegas O/U of 38.5 wins

Though honestly, judging by recent performance you’d do well to bet against the Bulls. Since these articles come out every year, it’s pretty quick to find past Over/Unders, and the Bulls have missed the past four years.

Year | O/U | Wins

2010 | 47.0 | 62

2011 | 47.5 | 50

2012 | 47.5 | 45

2013 | 56.5 | 48

2014 | 54.5 | 50

2015 | 49.5 | 42

BUT, the fit and coaching are a variable. Maybe...one that will lead to the Bulls out-pacing their projection? maybe?

I think, for once, this is an actually fair consensus: nobody believes in us!