Five Thirty Eight released their NBA projections today. I haven't dug into exactly how it works, but it's a blend of player projections and schedule analysis.
How this works: This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts for team fatigue, travel distance to games, and home courts with higher altitudes. Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent, while our CARMELO projections estimate a player’s future performance based on the trajectory of other, similar NBA players. Our CARM-Elo ratings, which power the forecast model, blend these two metrics to measure a team's quality based on both its game results and its roster.
Based on their schedule simulations, they peg the Bulls at a 45-37 record, good for a tie for 4th in the East and only behind Cleveland, Toronto, and Boston. They appear to be way less enthusiastic about the Hawks and Pacers then I've seen elsewhere.