Points per 48 minutes last year in close and late ("clutch") situations:

Ben Gordon: 42.0
Luol Deng: 14.7

Why did we give Luol the huge extension?

This year, Deng is having his worst season. Yet of all the Rebuilding Ideas posted on this site, I haven't seen one that's called for the immediate trade of Deng, when that's the only way to really improve our team without clearing loads of salary for free agency. It begs another question, why all the love for Deng?

It seems like his nice-guy, hard-working, smart-player image is clouding that fact that he's a below average starting small forward. A few Luol Deng Myths need to be busted.

MYTH #1: Luol Deng is and will be a good #2 or #3 option for a long time.

FACT: If Deng's our #2 or #3 option, we aren't winning a title.

Earlier this year, while watching Rasho Nesterovic pick us apart, I figured out what separated our Bulls from the 2004 Pistons (the team we hoped our Bulls would become), and that difference is Takeover Players.

takeover player, n. - 1. A player who has the ability to - at any moment in the game, against any team in the league - put his team on his back, become the go-to guy offensively, and lead his team on a run.

The Pistons had three takeover players: Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton, and Rasheed Wallace. All three could work in isolation and put 10 points on you before you blinked. All three could put up 25 on a given night and it wouldn't surprise you. And you were a Detroit fan, you wouldn't have a problem putting the ball in any of their hands in crunch time.

Without a superstar scorer, three takeover players seems to be the magic number. Looking back at recent NBA Championship teams, they either had a superstar scorer (25+ ppg, .55+ TS%, can score consistently in isolation, clutch) and a takeover player, or three takeover players.

Lakers: Shaq (superstar), Kobe (superstar)
Heat: Wade (superstar), Shaq (takeover)
Spurs: Duncan, Parker, Ginobili (three takeovers)
Pistons: Billups, Hamilton, R. Wallace (three takeovers)
Celtics: Pierce, Garnett, Allen (three takeovers)

Deng, though, is not a takeover player. His game relies on exploiting defensive lapses. Leave him open on the wing and he'll catch and shoot a quick 18 footer. Turn your back on him off the ball and he'll cut to the hole for an easy layup.

The problem with that type of game, though, is it's easy to defend. Keep a body near Deng and you shut him down. He has no post game, he isn't quick enough to make space for himself or drive to the hole, and as a result he has virtually no isolation scoring in his game. That's why you get the 14.7pp48 in crunch time. When defenses lock down at the end of games, Deng is nothing but a decoy.

For further proof, here's the breakdown of assisted baskets from our supposed first three options:

1. Gordon - 40.7% of his buckets are assisted.
2. Rose - 35.1%
3. Deng - 75.6%

And if you look back at the list of top clutch scorers you'll see that nearly all of them have low assisted % numbers. You have to be able to create on your own to takeover a game.

(For those that are thinking about Rip Hamilton and Reggie Miller as exceptions, you're right. Both were catch and shoot players and clutch studs. But they also moved relentlessly off the ball which allowed them to exploit/create defensive lapses regardless of the situation. I'd be interested to see Luol play this way, though he never has.)

That makes Luol a fourth option on a Championship Team. He's a role player that needs to be surrounded by other, more talented scorers to be effective late in games.

MYTH #2: Luol Deng is a good shooter.

FACT: Luol Deng is a poor shooter who hurts the Bulls by shooting so often.

Remember the good old days two years ago when Luol seemingly made every 18 footer he took? Well the stats just don't back that up.

Luol's career 47.6 FG% has made us believe he's one of the best midrange shooters in the league, when in reality his high FG% is mostly due to his knack for finishing around the basket. When he's taking jumpshots, the numbers are ugly.

eFG% of Deng's Jumpshots (eFG% accounts for the extra point from making a 3):

2005-2006: 38.4%
2006-2007: 42.6%
2007-2008: 40.6%
2008-2009: 36.1%

For comparison, here's the eFG% for Larry Hughes' Jumpshots:

2005-2006: 39.9%
2006-2007: 41.4%
2007-2008: 39.9%
2008-2009: 51.7%

Those percentages are almost exactly equal! Now let's look at the jumpshot percentages for a good shooter, Ben Gordon:

2005-2006: 50.1%
2006-2007: 51.4%
2007-2008: 50.4%
2008-2009: 50.4%

Wait, who did we give the huge contract extension to?

heyluoldengpleasestoptakingsomanybadshots.com is still available...

MYTH #3: Luol Deng is an Above-Average Starting Small Forward

Fact: Luol Deng is in the Bottom Half.

Let's put aside Luol's 4th quarter disappearing acts and poor jumpshooting, and just focus on the two basic Hollinger numbers: PER and True Shooting Percentage. And we'll see how Luol stacks up to the other NBA starting small forwards.

Name: '08 PER, '08 TS%; '07 PER, '07 TS%

LeBron James: 32.7, .583; 29.1, .568
Caron Butler: 22.3, .575; 20.7, .558
Paul Pierce: 17.0, .562; 19.6, .599
Danny Granger: 18.9, .572; 16.7, .571
Carmelo Anthony: 17.6, .517, 21.1, .568
Andrei Kirilenko: 20.0, .597; 17.2, .603
Rudy Gay: 16.3, .520; 17.5, .547
Gerald Wallace: 16.3, .532, 17.5, .548
Shawn Marion: 16.3, .505; 19.2, .570
Corey Maggette: 15.7, .550; 19.3, .595
Josh Howard: 17.5, .521; 18.3, .534
Tayshaun Prince: 16.0, .522; 15.6, .516
Lamar Odom: 14.1, .557; 16.9, .582
Richard Jefferson: 14.0, .537; 17.4, .571
Hedo Turkoglu: 13.7, .497; 17.8, .576
Ron Artest: 13.8, .474; 18.8, .535

Luol Deng: 13.3, .494; 17.0, .528

There are 16 SF's names listed there next to Luol's, and Luol doesn't have a clear advantage over any of them. That's already over half the league, and I didn't include up-and-comers Thaddeus Young, Michael Beasley, Jamario Moon, John Salmons, and Travis Outlaw, all of whom have better numbers than Luol this season.

So why did we give a 4th option, below average SF who lacks a jumpshot and disappears in crunch time a 6 year, $71 million extension? Who knows. But we have to stop looking at Deng as a future star and get him shipped off for an actual takeover player immediately.  Because Deng still has trade value...

THE OUTLOOK: How to Build the Bulls into a Contender

Step 1: Sign Ben Gordon to an extension, and make sure Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden never sniff an extension contract.

We've already got one takeover player (Rose) locked up for the next four years. Let's lock up our second takeover player, pronto.  Takeover players are rare, and if Gordon asks for $13 mil, give it to him.

After that, the best option for a Bulls rebuild is still through 2010 Free Agency. There are too many huge stars to not at least put ourselves in position to make a play. But there may be ways we can rid ourselves of Luol's contract while adding a 3rd takeover player before 2010.

Step 2: Free up cash while adding a potential 3rd takeover player by trading Luol.

Would the T'Wolves trade their #1 pick along with Jason Collins and Brian Cardinal for Luol and Tyrus? Maybe (and 7'1" freshman BJ Mullens looks like a blue chipper).

Would the Grizzlies trade Rudy Gay (33.7pp48 in the clutch last year, 35% of buckets assisted), Antoine Walker, and Darko Milicic for Luol and Hinrich? With the poor Gayo/Mayo chemistry, it's possible.

Either trade would give the Bulls cap space for 2010 and the possibility of three takeover players on their roster before then. A core of Rose, Gordon and Gay attracts free agents.

Step 3: Dump enough contracts to make a play in 2010, and try like hell to land a big name.

Ever since the Doug Collins rumors died, there have been trade ideas popping up on BaB to get us Camby, VC, Odom, and Brand in an attempt to compete in the East this year.  But from what I've seen from Paxson lately, that's just not the direction he's going.  Here are his moves of note:

- Hired Vinny Del Negro as head coach
- Drafted Derrick Rose
- Traded for Omer Asik
- No pursuit, not even rumored pursuit, of any free agents so far this offseason

These are not the moves of a GM looking to win now.  These aren't even the moves of a GM looking to win before 2010.  Everything he's done this offseason seems to indicate two things: 1) he wants to give Rose ample time to develop into a superstar, and 2) he wants to sign a second star in 2010.

Paxson wants to give this team time

Think about it.  If Paxson wanted to win now, he would've hired Collins or Avery Johnson, not Del Negro and his zero years of coaching experience.  He would've drafted Michael Beasley, the inside scorer that we needed right away, and not Derrick Rose, who now forces us to unload Hinrich or Gordon in the near future. He would've used his secound round pick on somebody who can play this year, not on Asik who won't be here until at least 2010.  And he would've at least made some effort to nab Jermaine O'Neal or Elton Brand... but he hasn't.

Combine that with two recent quotes that stuck out to me:

"Derrick's not a guy we're going to look at and say, `Come in and right away [and start],' " Paxson said. "He's got to earn that given the chance. But we're not going to throw him into this thing and say you have to do everything right now. We'll give him time."

"Let's face it, we haven't had a star player here in a long, long time,'' said Paxson, those six NBA championship trophies located about 20 feet from where he did his post-draft presser. "We're not putting that tag on Derrick, but in building a team we have to be realistic with what happened to us last year … I think Derrick is a type of piece we haven't had, and I think he's going to be terrific.''

Paxson realizes that the reason why the Bulls haven't won is because they "haven't had a star player".  He also realizes that Rose has a chance to be that "type of piece we haven't had".  And he's willing to "give him time" to make that happen.  Because the Bulls currently have no stars, it would go against Paxson's own beliefs to try to contend for a title this year.  And so Paxson is going to let this team grow.

Paxson wants to add another star

That gives him three options: 1) Re-sign everybody and try to win it all with the current roster after Rose turns into a star, 2) make a trade this year or next for a big name inside scorer, or 3) prepare for 2010 and make a run at Wade and Bosh.

Option #1 requires Paxson to take a huge leap of faith - that Rose is good enough to put our 33-win team on his back and carry them to a championship.  And that's unlikely.  Besides, Paxson has made it clear in the past that he wants to bring in an inside scorer.  Option #2 is plausible, but we've already passed up on two inside scorers (Brand and Jermaine), and besides them, who could we get?  Odom, Rasheed Wallace, Zach Randolph, Eddy Curry, Brad Miller, and Shaq are about the best big men we could realistically trade for between now and 2010, but none of them will be star players in a couple years when Rose starts hitting his prime.  Vince Carter is another trade option, but if he couldn't win a title in his prime alongside Kidd and Jefferson, he probably won't do it now that his career is on the downslope.

2010 is the easiest way to land another star.  Not only is it the exact time we expect Rose to rise into stardom, but it will be fairly easy for us to get into a position to make a generous offer for another young, true star like Wade, Bosh or Boozer, Dirk, Amare or LeBron.

One problem.  If we re-sign all of our core players through 2010, here's an estimation of how our payroll will look:

Deng: $10 mil
Gordon: 10
Hinrich: 9
Nocioni: 7
Tyrus: 7
Thabo: 5
Rose: 5
Noah: 3
'09 1st rounder: 2
'10 1st rounder: 2

Total: $60 million, putting us just over the expected salary cap, meaning we'll have to shed about $20 million to be able to offer a max contract.  That means three of the four of Hinrich, Gordon, Thabo, Nocioni will have to go.

The Plan: How Paxson can shed $20 million while properly developing Rose, Tyrus, and Joakim

These are fun.

Step 1: Trade Hinrich and Nocioni now for cap space.  Hinrich and Nocioni are our two easiest pieces to trade right away, and it would be smart to get most of the salary-clearing out of the way this offseason.  Because Golden State is under the cap, they can take on more salary than they give out.  Because Baron Davis departed, they'll want Hinrich.  I'd propose Hinrich and Nocioni for Al Harrington, and play Harrington as Deng's backup and as our 3rd PF.  His contract is up in '10.

Step 2: Sign backups.  Next, we'll need to round out this year's roster.  After last season's Joe Smith debacle, I'd imagine Paxson's main intention is to find veteran players who will complement our young guys, not take away their minutes.

We could use help in two areas: 1) a big interior defender, and 2) a pass-first point guard.

Big interior defender: Tyrus and Noah held their own against some of the top names in the league last year, but they ran into trouble against the wide-bodies like Al Jefferson and Kendrick Perkins, as Tyrus and Noah were too thin and Aaron Gray was too Aaron Gray.  Two possible options to solve that problem are unrestricted FAs DJ Mbenga and Theo Ratliff, both of whom we could sign for the low-level exception.  Either one would help Tyrus and Noah without jeopardizing their playing time.

Pass-first point guard: I wrote before about how Rose is mostly a drive-and-kick passer instead of one who threads the needle to the big men.  With Hinrich gone, it might not be a bad idea to sign a pass-first veteran point who could complement Rose's game.  Two possible options are European unrestricted FAs Aaron Miles (PG at Kansas when Hinrich was there), and Theodorus Papaloukas, the best floor leader in Europe right now according to DraftExpress.  (I'd suggest a current NBA player if I thought there was anyone worth getting.)  Both players are listed among the top 6 overseas free agents and we could probably land one of them with a two-year offer at less than the full mid-level exception.

Step 3: Trade away whoever is the worse fit - Gordon or Thabo - after the '08-'09 season, for an expiring contract.  One of them has to go to free up the remaining cap room.  Chances are Gordon will be the one that stays, but if Paxson decides Wade is his top target, it doesn't make sense to pay Gordon $10 million to back up Wade.

Step 4: Sign Wade, Bosh, Boozer, Dirk, Amare, or LeBron to a max deal in 2010.  Maybe that's easier said than done, but maybe not.  Between our big media market, our max deal, and the roster we already have in place, we'll be able to put together an offer than few other teams will be able to match.

And just like that... we'll have two legit stars along with Deng, a 7'4" Tyrus, Noah, Gordon/Thabo, Asik, and two 1st round picks as a dynamite supporting cast.  Say hello to six more rings.