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Open Game Thread #76: Bulls verses Washington Wizards

[Thanks to chgobr for tonight's game preview. -Matt]

The Thursday Cleveland game exposed my emotional fragility.  Of course I know losing solidifies our chances for the 9th pick as well as maintains hope that Charlotte makes up 1½ games and we get the 8th pick. However, I couldn't control myself. I rooted for the Bulls to win and enjoyed it when they won.  I am ashamed of myself. I wonder if this problem will persist tonight.  I'm also worried New Jersey's ineptitude may overcome ours.  

Bullshooter, despite overwhelming odds, in his Cleveland game preview attempted to convince us to watch.  The game thread received almost 300 comments so I guess he succeeded (or was it the rare Bulls win?).  Let me try to excite you about tonight's game.

Here is what I'm looking at tonight:
1.    Despite disdain for our dead-man-walking coach we seem to be playing better.  The "Czar" Fratello repeatedly pointed out how well he thought the Bulls were playing, particularly in the first quarter.  My head is splitting trying to figure out how to improve this team.
2.    Larry Hughes is an enigma.  Poor shot selection, risky and/or matador defense that leads to easy points is interwoven with offensive bursts and periods of excellent defense that can carry a team.  His contract makes him difficult to move.  Can the right coach make him into consistent, valuable contributor?  He seems to have the talent, but does he have the brains?
3.    Eddie Jordan has done a terrific job with this team.  How did he get this team to buy into playing defense?   Riley thinks he has done a great job .

"Eddie's done a great job obviously, I think, and he should be a [coach of the year] candidate along with [New Orleans Coach] Byron Scott and a lot of these coaches that have kept their teams abreast," Riley said. "Eddie's done a great job defensively. If you take a look at their numbers without Gilbert, they went to a more methodical approach even though they still run. They're not the kind of running team they were prior to Gilbert's injury. It's a game that's more suited to Jamison and Butler. And I think the one thing they've improved the most is defensively, they really clamp down on people. Big front line, the real deal when it comes to rebounding, second-chance points and stuff like that."
4.    We get to evaluate Arenas.  Arenas came back on Wednesday against Milwaukee at home and Washington lost.  He played 20 minutes, had 17 points, 4 TOs and 2 assists.  Last night against Miami he again played 20 minutes, had 13 points, 8 assists and 5 rebounds and 1 TO.  Is he really better or will his knees deteriorate and someone will be stuck with a horrible, unmovable, contract?
5.    Attributing our Thursday win to James bad back minimizes the excellent job Thabo and Noah did defensively.  Thabo and Noah provide 2008-9 optimism.  
6.    With all our Ben Gordon grumblings who on our team can make big 4th quarter shots better than BG?  When he is hot he is fun to watch.  When Hughes is hot other teams cannot just focus on BG.  This makes BG more dangerous.  What-do-we-do with BG adds to my off-season confusion.
7.    Who on this blog didn't love the Corpse missing a key dunk Wednesday at crunch-time? The audible groan from the Cleveland crowd was music to my ears(as a smile emerges on my face)?

208 days until opening night.

BLOGGING WITH THE ENEMY:
Ready to Rule
Washington Wizard News
Bullets Forever

FanPosts are user-created posts from the BlogABull community, and are to be treated as the opinions and views of that particular user, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

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verses
Do all entries have to be written in prose or will biblical passages be involved?
"It is not the same to talk of bulls as to be in the bullring." ~Spanish Proverb"

by VivaLosToros on Apr 5, 2008 11:17 AM CDT   0 recs

Nice open thread preview up at
Bullets Forever, too.  They're on to your possible desire to see Arenas in a Bulls' uni next year, chgobr.  

Personally, although I enjoy seeing the highlights of some of the crazy shots he hits, I don't think I'd enjoy a whole season of full games of Gil.  On the other hand, since it would almost certainly involve a trade of Kirk to get him here, I guess I'd be off watching the Wiz next season.  ;)

As for tonight, I'd kind of like to see the guys have at least one 3 game winning streak this year, and with the unexpected win on Thursday and the Heat coming next Tuesday, this would seem to be the best (only?) chance for that.  It will be interesting to see what Larry does after Thursday's big game as well.

Of course, with Kansas playing at the same time, I'll be back and forth between the games.  I'm really hoping for 2 wins, but if I can only get one?  Well, Bulls aren't in it anyway, right?  (Go Jayhawks!)

It takes a special coach to make Aaron Gray a guy you can see.

by wjb1492 on Apr 5, 2008 3:51 PM CDT   0 recs

Thanks wjb1492 - I added it to
the Blogging with the Enemy.

by chgobr on Apr 5, 2008 4:06 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Kansas better not lose
I have five whole dollars riding into this game only. Five dollars can feed me and my roommates right now.
"to the children: Fuck the Bulls." - Matt

by NittanyBull on Apr 5, 2008 7:37 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Put away the Top Ramen!
Dollar Menu double cheeseburgers on NittanyBull.  :P
It takes a special coach to make Aaron Gray a guy you can see.

by wjb1492 on Apr 5, 2008 10:41 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

No chance at making this
an NCAA Love/Rose/Westbrook/Collison/Psycho T scouting threat as well?  Since our biggest causes for optimism, aside from Noah and Sefo, are playing in the final four? :P

Nice intro, chgobr.  While the quality of Bulls basketball has gone to crap this year, its good to see the BaBers are still churning out solid previews!

But seriously.  Derek Rose.  Kevin Love.  Russel Westbrook!  Uhoh, I hear Matt coming...

by Freethefro on Apr 5, 2008 4:18 PM CDT   0 recs

actually
it's a good point. I'll start a seperate diary.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 5, 2008 4:41 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Rose is filthy good
If only we could somehow land him and trade Hinrich....

by Illini15 on Apr 5, 2008 7:19 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Stuck at work...
Anyone know of any good feeds for this game?

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 5, 2008 7:33 PM CDT   0 recs

Khalid...
aish biddak ya khalid? 3a'yiz ai? aish al "good feed" illa biddak? what is ur tukking bout ya khalid?

by BG74EVER on Apr 5, 2008 8:33 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

oh no
this guy is back?

by Illini15 on Apr 5, 2008 8:41 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

wow. none taken, i guess?
yeah, im back and im ready for more.
get ready baby cuz the BGTrain is headed ur way

by BG74EVER on Apr 5, 2008 9:02 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I am listening to it
off of NBA.com  

I know of places to watch it after the fact, but not live unless you have a subscription.

by cranscape on Apr 5, 2008 9:03 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

hey look
a lob from Hinrich to TT.
Don't tell anybody, but here's hoping TT puts it all together.

by bullshooter on Apr 5, 2008 8:58 PM CDT   0 recs

he must have heard all the discussions
about him not looking at the big guys cutting in after a screen....actually i didnt watch the game...i heard the first 5 min or so of the third on my break at work. When this play happened Funk said that tyrus didnt know what happened at first after a screen, then saw the rim and just cut towawrds it. Hinrich had been staring at him the whole time and when Tyrus finally looked at kirk, hinrich threw the lob and tyrus did what he does  best....GO GET IT!!!

Then hinrich hit a jumper sometime after this play, it was a jumper that got us within one point of washington (after both teams ran a fast break, wizards were the only ones who scored on thier second fast break) Hinrich walked the ball up staring at boylan if he wanted a time out (failing our own fast break yet letting the wizards get two going, and scoring on the second must call for a time out in hinrichs book) Boylan simply shook his head no, so kirk walked up and hit a jumper....Funk talked about kirk staring at boylan for that time out, then hitting the jumper after boylan said no.

Sorry i just wanted to banter about the two good kirk plays i heard....i wonder if they were the only ones....well onto the boxscores and game recaps to find out what happened since this place is dead.

Kirk Hinrich. The FORMER Best White American Point Guard in the NBA, Will Soon be Traded :(

by piccolomair on Apr 6, 2008 12:10 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Noah vs Haywood
is always a bad matchup, but putting Noc in there really doesn't help it any.  But TT wasn't doing anything either I guess.  No boards in 13 minutes?
Don't tell anybody, but here's hoping TT puts it all together.

by bullshooter on Apr 5, 2008 9:11 PM CDT   0 recs

BG had 5 times as many...
In the same amount of minutes.

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 5, 2008 10:06 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

shit wre losin
by 13 without ARENAS OR JAMISON??

by BG74EVER on Apr 5, 2008 9:16 PM CDT   0 recs

Not that I want them to win
but it's disheartening to watch Noah and whoever is playing PF get worked over by Brendan Haywood and Andre Blech...
Don't tell anybody, but here's hoping TT puts it all together.

by bullshooter on Apr 5, 2008 9:26 PM CDT   0 recs

OOOOOOOMMMMMMFFFFFFFFGGGGGGGGGG
TYRUS THOMAS FOR THREEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!

by BG74EVER on Apr 5, 2008 9:40 PM CDT   0 recs

wait... what the hell jsut hapnd??
how many effin 3's did we make???

by BG74EVER on Apr 5, 2008 9:42 PM CDT   0 recs

still,
were gonna lose!!

by BG74EVER on Apr 5, 2008 9:43 PM CDT   0 recs

Ha!
Guess this is what happens when a griefer comes to the blog to bother people and no one is here for him to annoy.  Fitting I think.

by cranscape on Apr 6, 2008 3:47 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

whoa shit this place is dead
WTF - Du/Gordon/Hughes/Sefo/Tyrus????

WHEN WE GOT OUTREBOUNDED 53-28?? (not including team reb)

like 4 guards when we need rebounds most??? not that tyrus did much, he only had 1... still wtf.

fun to watch him make a 3 though.

"Joakim Noah looks like a young Kimberly Williams." - my mom

by Jaina on Apr 5, 2008 10:32 PM CDT   0 recs

wow, glad I missed this one
if that lineup was out there. yeesh.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 5, 2008 11:12 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

for real
i kept trying to figure out who was on the floor because i thought my eyes were deceiving me.

well, i missed the other time a 4-guard lineup made an appearance.

"Joakim Noah looks like a young Kimberly Williams." - my mom

by Jaina on Apr 5, 2008 11:18 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

53-28? Holy shit!
I knew the rebounding disadvantage was bad, but that's downright terrible.  We only pulled down 28 boards all night?
The Kids Must Stay In The Picture!!!

by NBA Observer on Apr 6, 2008 2:36 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Ya know something
that really pisses me off? Red Kerr and his critical comments about Tyrus all the time. I can't stand him any more. And he needs to stop that damn sigh every time Tyrus shoots the ball.

by sue369 on Apr 5, 2008 11:45 PM CDT   0 recs

you couldn't be more right
I noticed that a while back.  He can't even wait to start bitching about TT.  The shot is just leaving his hand and he is already sighing and complaining.  And god forbid he dribbles the ball up the floor.

Red likes his big men slow and immobile.  Just like he was.  Just like Gray is.

by MarketMaker on Apr 6, 2008 6:24 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Holy shit
27 comments??  I even watched this game over the 1st half of KU/UNC.  And someone tell Red to buy a freaking iron, his shirts look like he folds them in a fanny pack.
Dickey Simpkins>Ben Wallace

by Ozzie Montana on Apr 6, 2008 12:19 AM CDT   0 recs

tyrus/noah tandem
aint lookin so good for the future.  Need a rasho/pryzbilla like type to rough up bigger centers and get some rebounds.  There must be one that has a horrible contract close to larry hughes' that the bulls can trade for.

by Sambossanova on Apr 6, 2008 4:30 AM CDT   0 recs

Or just get Noah on steroids
Athletes can't get in trouble for taking that stuff.
Dickey Simpkins>Ben Wallace

by Ozzie Montana on Apr 7, 2008 12:23 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

if it means less Aaron Gray
then I'm all for it.

Nocioni for Rasho? He's expiring......

Przybilla has a long-term deal and is hurt quite often.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 7, 2008 1:46 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

gray
should have been sent to the d league halfway through the season but the bulls have no big guys.

by Sambossanova on Apr 7, 2008 3:47 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

30-some comments?
I guess I'm glad I missed Brendan Haywood's coming out party.

Anyway, thought this was interesting:

http://www.82games.com/0708/0708CHI.HTM

Shows that despite youth, Tyrus and Noah are pretty good.  Ben Gordon, not so much.  Griffin's minutes are either too small a sample size, or he's better than average.  I'm going with the former.

BAB Tyrus Love-Meter -- 7 - Debating whether Moses Malone was better in his prime than Tyrus right now.

by cubbybear on Apr 7, 2008 2:13 AM CDT   0 recs

Yeah, O.K.
And Khyrapa is our best player.

Garbage.

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 7, 2008 2:22 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

No, you just have to
be able to read and have an IQ over 60 to understand it and use it properly.

:)

by Bass on Apr 7, 2008 8:45 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

there are some intense concepts at work
Like sample size, considering individual box score production, and common sense.
Stephen Curry is the lowpost answer!

by hscs on Apr 7, 2008 9:00 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Hey, apparently not everyone
gets these intense concepts...

Unless you're willing to interpret KEA's post as saying that "Khyrapa" is the Bulls best (ex)-player in garbage time this season.

I for one am not willing to give him this kind of benefit of the doubt...

by Bass on Apr 7, 2008 1:02 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Khryapa tore it up in garbage minutes
he's a poor man's TT...  :-p
Don't tell anybody, but here's hoping TT puts it all together.

by bullshooter on Apr 7, 2008 9:00 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

My fav stat, just updated from 82games.com
I only include players who are still on the team (so not Khryapa) and have a usage % of over 10 (again not Khryapa). Guess who that was for.. ;)

Noah +5,4
Thabo +3,9
Thomas +3,0
Noc +2,6
Gray -0,3
Duh -0,4
Hughes -0,7
Deng -3,4
Gooden -3,4
Goron -7,1

Noah's numbers are down. I blame this on extended minutes with Gooden, Hughes and Deng.

And the five best on the list (who incidentally kicked Denvers butt after the trade...) are yet to see significant (if any) court time together.

Seeing as I don't particularly want to see us win any more games I don't mind. I do however find it SOMEWHAT odd that not a single person on the coaching staff sees this. Whatever, just a few games left now...

by Bass on Apr 7, 2008 2:01 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Darn it! Sorry Sue! :)
I forgot, Kirk! :O

+1,9

by Bass on Apr 7, 2008 2:04 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

ugh
Just use the plus-minus rating. It's adjusted for teammates, so you don't have to guess.
Stephen Curry is the lowpost answer!

by hscs on Apr 7, 2008 2:11 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

This stat is better
It's adjusted per 100 poss making it easier to compare players.

by Bass on Apr 7, 2008 2:28 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

the Roland Rating uses net per 100
and adjusts for teammates, making it a lot better. Net plus-minus contains zero context.
Stephen Curry is the lowpost answer!

by hscs on Apr 7, 2008 2:34 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I find the Roland Rating
More flawed than simple On court/Off court stats.  On Court/Off court stats are raw stats that exist without someone trying to create their own personal formula out of it.  Roland Ratings are created by first using a subjective stat like PER and comparing the differences in PER between two players on opposing teams that play the same position and then tack this number onto On Court/Off court stats and assign an arbitrary value to the significance of each stat.  Practically everything about this Roland stat is flawed.

by Parrotman on Apr 7, 2008 3:06 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Link to the formula for the Roland-rating, please.
And to your last sentence: Hogwash!

:)

by Bass on Apr 7, 2008 3:13 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

then listen to Dan Rosenbaum
link
The most common approach is to compute plus/minus ratings that measure how point differentials change when a particular player is in the game versus when he is not.  Hockey has used such a plus/minus system for years, but Roland Beech of 82games.com is the first to make these data available for the NBA.  The logic of this approach is straightforward; teams should perform better when their good players are playing versus when they are not.  The intuitive appeal of this approach has not escaped teams' attention, and my understanding is that most teams use plus/minus ratings to some extent.  However, these "unadjusted" plus/minus ratings do not measure the value of a player per se; they measure the value of the player relative to the players that substitute in for him.  In addition, there are differences in the quality of players that players play with and against.  A weak starter on a team with exceptionally good starters (relative to bench players) will generally get a very good unadjusted plus/minus rating - regardless of their actual contribution to the team.

Thus, a better measure of player value would "adjust" these plus/minus ratings to account for the quality of players that a given player plays with and against.

82games doesn't have the guts of the Roland Rating available to the public, but it's not a secret that their plus-minus rating evolved to account for the contributions of teammates. Adjusted plus-minus takes it a step further with teammates and opponents.

Stephen Curry is the lowpost answer!

by hscs on Apr 7, 2008 4:15 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

hmm
That link basically says Roland Rating does not take into account teammates at all.  All I see are references to the new Roland rating that says it is comparing the differences in PER between positions.  If you look at the webpage and look at player's oncourt/offcourt numbers and their PER differences to opponent...you can basically see where the Roland rating is deriving its numbers.  It basically views a difference in PER per position as slightly more valuable than oncourt/offcourt numbers...and then gives you a number that is between those two numbers.

by Parrotman on Apr 7, 2008 5:54 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Roland Rating
is only adjusted by Net PER.

60% * Net PER + 40% * Net +/- = Roland Rating

Basically the Net PER factor is a quick and dirty approximation for accounting for teammates.

In that respect, it's pretty good, although I'm pretty skeptical about the whole "defensive PER" thing because I really have no idea how things are matched up properly.  Consider the Gordon-Hinrich backourt.  Defensively Hinrich typically (but not always) guards an opposing SG and Gordon guards an opposing PG, but they switch roles offensively.

Without actually watching and charting the games, I think almost any result is going to have a very significant error to it.  

by Sports2 on Apr 7, 2008 8:16 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

How does PER
account for teammates...when it's just taking your individual PER and matching it up with your counterpart on the other team?  It's making it into a one vs one stat game...where, like you said...the two guys being compared may not even be going one on one at all in the game.

by Parrotman on Apr 7, 2008 11:16 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

yup
The plus-minus stuff is the teammates, and PER is the individual.
Stephen Curry is the lowpost answer!

by hscs on Apr 8, 2008 8:22 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

net +/-
Does not take into account teammates any more than it takes into account opponents.  It just describes how well the team does when you're in a game.  I prefer the net oncourt/offcourt stat alone because it's not being put into a formula with 1v1 stat comparison.

by Parrotman on Apr 8, 2008 9:31 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

think of it this way
There are way more teammates and opponents on and off the floor than Thabo Sefolosha, whose minutes, teammates, and matchups are erratic (this could be any Bull). How much can Sefolosha's net per 100 plus-minus, a sum of production that Sefolosha is only a small factor in, say about Sefolosha? An amount that could be described as statistically significant, but without any other information it's a meaningless number.  
Stephen Curry is the lowpost answer!

by hscs on Apr 8, 2008 9:53 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Well
If we're going to use the argument that one player is just one guy on the floor out of 10 guys...then yes, his impact may not be very large relatively speaking.  That's why we usually don't expect guys to jump right in and individually make the game turn into a 20 point swing for one team.  That's why you don't see guys with crazy oncourt/offcourt numbers of like +50 or whatever.  The reason I like these oncourt/offcourt numbers is because they reflect what we see as fans. Obviously, the bigger the sample size the better.  The guy with the worst oncourt/offcourt numbers often is the guy that subs into the game and we end up doing terrible as a team.  Similarly the guy with the best oncourt/offcourt numbers often is the guy that subs in and we do much better.  You can have a guy come in and put up individual scoring numbers while making bad decisions with the ball and horrid defense and the team does terrible...and oncourt/offcourt numbers will show how bad he was, but PER-wise he looks good.  This is why I don't like PER.  PER is not an accurate stat to describe the value of a player to a team.

by Parrotman on Apr 8, 2008 12:07 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

you need to explain yourself better
Because what you just typed doesn't make any sense. My point is don't use a stat as an individual metric that doesn't capture individual production. I said why it doesn't capture individual production, another one tries to, and you start building straw men. So, huh?

I'm not trying to pit one stat against another stat. I'm not good at math, and John Hollinger is a lot smarter than me. It's all about how you use the things. With some sense, usually.

Stephen Curry is the lowpost answer!

by hscs on Apr 8, 2008 12:31 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Umm...
What part didn't make sense?  The part where I addressed the significance of one person out of 10?  The part where I addressed the validity of the stat?  Personal oncourt/offcourt stats are an individual stat.  It's a team game, players aren't playing in a vacuum.  A player's assists, rebounds, points, all depend on the opponent and their teammates as well.  Just like a player's personal oncourt/offcourt stat.  Oncourt/offcourt at least tries to address the role of an individual in terms of the team....personal stats are the role of an individual producing his own personal stats but it has nothing to do with how it affects the team.  I think the whole reason the guy was using this stat wasn't to measure a person's ability to garner individual stats but something to measure their ability to help the team win.  If you want to compare individual "production" use PER...but I doubt that's what he was getting at.

by Parrotman on Apr 8, 2008 1:32 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

heh
I thought the final number was more secret than that, but my sample size of 2 players makes it seem just to be that formula.

I'm still not sure how they do oPER besides some hard-core game-charting. If it's just parsing game logs and matching up by expected positions, then yes it's not the most accurate.

But it seems any way to try and 'adjust' raw +/- is a step in the right direction.

Until then, the way to go is looking at 5-man units.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 7, 2008 11:59 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Disagree
I'm not sure it's a step in the right direction to simply use expected positions.  I think it is parsing game logs, and it comes out being strange.

When I think about it, it's more likely to me that it leads to systematic errors and the appearance of precision than actually uncovering anything.

When I look at the Bulls, it's just a confusing mess.

Looking at the players' play by position and 5 man units you can make some extrapolations, and they don't confirm what I see with my eyes.
Hinrich has played 48% of the PG minutes and 12% of the SG minutes. Gordon's played 44% of the SG minutes and 12% of the PG minutes.  Based on the 5 man units, one see that:

  1. Hinrich's "SG" minutes must mostly come with Duhon at the point.
  2. Gordon's "PG" minutes must mostly come with Hughes at SG.
  3. When Hinrich and Gordon play together, Kirk is listed as the PG and Gordon the SG.  But in reality, Kirk often defends the opposing SGs and Gordon defends the opposing PG.
So what's this mean?
I take 1 to mean that Kirk's dPER as a SG is probably accurate because it mostly reflects his minutes with Duhon and Kirk can be expected to be guarding SGs when he's paired with Duhon.  So Kirk's dPER against SGs is probably fairly accurate.  It's 20, which is abysmal.

I take 2 to mean that Ben's dPER as a PG is probably accurate because it mostly reflects his minutes with Hughes and Ben can be expected to be guarding PGs when he's paired with Hughes.  So Ben's dPER against PGs is probably fairly accurate.  It's 20.3, which is similarly abysmal to Kirk's.

I take 3 to mean that, with some level of uncertainty, we can imagine that much of Kirk's "dPER as a PG" is actually Gordon's "dPER as a PG" because when Kirk and Ben are in there together, Ben is more often guarding the PGs.  Likewise, Kirk should really be "responsible" for Ben's "dPER as a SG" because he's probably defending the SGs in that situation.

So you switch their dPERs, and you see that Ben's dPER when playing with Kirk should really be 16.9 and Kirk's should really be 19.3.

That sort of makes sense and sort of doesn't.  Kirk's 19.3 dPER when we believe he's defending SGs with Ben is similar to his 20 dPER when we know he's defending SGs with Chris Duhon on the floor.  So we have some consistency to say that Hinrich is bad defender against SGs no matter how you cut it.

On the other hand, you get a pretty big change in Gordon's numbers.  Gordon with Hughes has a dPER of 20.3. Gordon with Hinrich has a dPER of 16.9 against PGs.  That's still not great, but it's a pretty substantial improvement, and I don't see any obvious way to account for it.

Well, except to say that method credits him with some of Hinrich's defense on PGs, and to say that maybe Gordon actually does defend SGs more often.  In short, all of this thinking about it just leads one back to the starting point.  Without actually knowing the defensive assignments, there's just no way to divide things up.

I think the problem is even worse than that, though, because often teams take unusual steps to defend good players in key situations (like San Antonio using Bruce Bown on both Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitski, and how in key stretches when we played them, they'd sic him on Gordon).  Those are the situations, I'd think, when defense really matters the most, and in those cases positional analysis gets completely thrown out the window.

by Sports2 on Apr 8, 2008 10:08 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

there's zone defense too
But it's dealing with things that happen most of the time, and it's better than nothing. I know you realize this thread is more of an argument against tossing net plus-minus out there as 'the' stat, but I had to add that in.
Stephen Curry is the lowpost answer!

by hscs on Apr 8, 2008 10:22 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

taking objective data
and corrupting it isn't good.  PER in itself is bad data...making it into a 1 v 1 PER comparison makes the data even worse.

by Parrotman on Apr 8, 2008 12:09 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Hey funny guy...
I can read. I can also tell when somebody is cherry picking stats. Can you?

by Khalid El-Amin on Apr 7, 2008 2:12 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

You may be able to read, I'll give you that.
I should rather question your ability to comprehend what you read since you manage to dismiss the stat on the basis of your belief that it portrays Khryapa as the bulls best player. In spite of the fact that he is no longer a Bulls player and has a PT% of 3...

I guess I did that already, just not in so many words.

:)

As far as the Cherry-picking goes. Adjusted on/off court numbers measures your effect on the game when in compared to when out (given significant statistical basis i.e. minutes played) so it is in fact one of the best stats to use for comparing players.

Compared that to just using points scored. Then I might think that Ben Goron is the Bulls best player...

Get it?

by Bass on Apr 7, 2008 2:55 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

ok, that's the second time
you've called him 'goron'.

Just a lame 'moron' joke? Bass rhymes with Ass.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 7, 2008 3:10 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

fair enough
but I don't see 'Thab' anywhere.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 7, 2008 3:17 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

That's good
because I'm sure he's showing the ladies his "O"-face all the time....
Don't tell anybody, but here's hoping TT puts it all together.

by bullshooter on Apr 7, 2008 8:43 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

gotta love
the lame end-of-season humor

I wonder what's next.  Maybe "Hinbrick"..."Reinsdork"..."Jim Boy-I'mDumb"?

Those are some winners!

by NormVanBeer on Apr 8, 2008 2:13 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs