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Mid-Season Review II: Ben Gordon

[From the diaries. Judging by yesterday, Gordon's quite the divisive topic. So lets do it again, heh. -Matt]

Given some of today's discussion, it seemed prudent to discuss Ben Gordon.  Ben Gordon often seems to suffer from a lack of context.  Gordon seems to inspire people to make lazy comparisons (Think Vinnie Johnson).  Or inspire them to believe that every player in the NBA at least an inch taller than little Ben is automatically a better defender.  Or people allow the falling down and turnovers with the shot clock running down to overwhelm everything else Gordon does on the court.  And that's just the on the court stuff.  One of the biggest reasons I pay attention to statistics is because statistics provide context.  That way I hopefully end up saying less stupid stuff because I can place things in context.

So here's some context.  Despite all of those incredibly frustrating turnovers in key situations this season, overall Gordon's turnovers are actually at a career low, down 3% from last season (That's 1 less TO per 36 min).  At least one of my predictions proved accurate.  After the horrible 1st month he shared with every other Bulls player, Gordon has shot 45% from the field, 45% from 3 point range, and averaged 22 points with only 2.1 TOs per 36 min.  Since December he's played at least as well as he did last season on offense.

Interestingly, Gordon's performance at SG this year nearly exactly matches his performance there last season, posting the same 18.4 PER according to 82 games. It's his play in the point guard role that has been disappointing this year given the positive signs he showed last year in that role, dropping from a 31 PER last year to an 11 this year in that role.  Most of that time came early in the year when Gordon was often the only offensive threat on the floor when he was playing PG, and simply couldn't carry the team or stay on his feet.

Gordon strangely has by far the worst adjusted plus/minus on the team at negative 8.7 pts, but he's far from alone in the NBA when it comes to strangely poor numbers.  The sample size is still really small for adjust plus/minus.  The team has played better offense with Gordon on the court, but the defense has been flat awful.  Gordon's obviously not a great defender, but he's also not as bad as the numbers suggest.  Part of the problem is that Gordon led the team in minutes the 1st month of the season and gets penalized the most for the team's extremely poor start.  Gordon also finished 2nd on the team in adjusted plus minus last season so this isn't a consistent trend.  When you look at counterpart PER, Hinrich, Gordon, and Duhon have all slipped defensively this year, the PER of opposing backcourts increased 4 points this year.  

Gordon's not the perfect player, but he's basically tied with Joe Smith for the best offensive rating on the team at 107, while also using the most possessions.  In short, he's still the best offensive player on the team and the guy you should want taking shots.  If you feel the need to compare Gordon to somebody then a decent comparison for Gordon is Ray Allen.  Here's the comparison through the end of last season and including this season.  They're both great shooters that don't post up or get to the FT line much, and average defenders at best.  Gordon isn't as good as Ray at coming off screens or scoring in the paint, but Gordon is better at creating off the dribble and has had to carry a larger % of the offense than Ray did at the same age.  Ray was the slightly better player at the same age.  Gordon's not perfect, but he's the only guy on this team that can carry a team offensively for a sustained period.

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Yeah
I never noticed, but he is a lot like Raymundo.

by gobulls1124 on Feb 11, 2008 11:38 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

vinnieben
Vinnie Johnson 6'3" 200 lbs.
Ben Gordon 6'2" 200 lbs.

Vinnie Johnson never was an established starter, was a spot-starter at best.
Ben Gordon has yet to establish himself as a starter; the jury's out if ever will.

Vinnie Johnson had a 7 year run on the Pistons during the 1980's, during which he averaged 19.3 pts. Per 36 minutes.
Ben Gordon averages 21.5 per 36 minutes.

Vinnie Johnson averaged 4.9 asists/36 min.
Ben Gordon averages 3.4 assists/36 min.

Vinnie Johnson shot 46.8%
Ben Gordon shoots 43%

The only meaningful statistical difference between the two is that Gordon is a much better 3 point shooter, while Vinnie was more of a mid-range jump shooter, and averaged less than 1 attempt per game.

But the similarities in their impact on a game is what comes up again and again...small, couldn't handle well enough to run the point, couldn't defend well enough to play the 2, but could be brought into a game and counted on to put up instant offense.  Vinnie's role on those Pistons teams and BG's role on these Bulls are, for all intents, interchangeable.  

The main difference is that Vinnie had a better surrounding cast.  Gordon's minutes, no doubt, would shrink if this Bulls team was championship caliber.

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 12:46 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

you could at least cherry pick better stats
Assists and FG% don't cover much (any) ground, and as far as roles go, there's no comparison. Gordon's USG% is much higher than Johnson's.
Fire Boylan!

by hscs on Feb 12, 2008 8:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Alec doesn't understand that stuff.
Nor does he want to.

His whole argument hinges on Gordon "not being an established starter" along with Vinnie. Gordon started the entire second half of last season for a 49-win team, a team that swept the defending champs, a team that finally showed up to make the Pistons series respectable.

But yeah, he's not an established starter.

Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 8:37 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Not this year,
and depending on who he goes to, maybe not for his career.

He's a short, unreliable defender who's willing to shoot his decent jumpshot.  

There's a player profile hidden in there somewhere.

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 8:56 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

lazy player profile part 2: Andrew Toney
I'm a young fella and never saw Andrew Toney, but I've heard that comparison before.

He was a (listed, before people have a shit fit about when they saw Gordon at the local Dominicks) 6'3" SG (gasp!) who started 81 games for the 82-83 championship Sixers, his 3rd (and age 25) season. Coincidentally (or not), that was after 2 seasons of coming off the bench.

Through that title season for Toney and through this half-season for Gordon, here's the comparison of their cumulative careers at that point. Again, Ben stands out differently as more of a 3-point shooter (worse eFG% overall),  turns over the ball less (but also has fewer assists). Toney got to the line slightly more, which we all hope Ben can get better at (especially since he's proven to be a better FT% than Toney thus far).

Anyway, have at that old-tops. I'm sure there's better or worse evidence for comparison when comparing single seasons.

I guess the point is that team won a title and he was important. They also had Moses Malone and Julius Erving and Mo Cheeks, which emphasizes my general feeling on Gordon: the Bulls should be accumulating additional better players, not casting off their already good players.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 9:55 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That was a really entertaining team.
I lived in Philadelphia at the time.  They had a long run with Dr. J where they were a consistent championship threat every season.

I do remember Toney.  He was a good player, but I'd say BG is better.

Matt, I like Ben Gordon.  I'm just preparing myself to cut the umbilical chord.  The team just isn't showing a lot of support for him.  Low-balling him last summer was a pretty loud statement.  Also, Ben has made it clear he sees himself as a superstar and doesn't plan on settling for less in a contract.

I don't know how much more there is to say about it.  Like it or not, I can't see any way he's in the team's long range plans.

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 1:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with you on
that Alec.  I saw this happening when Pax signed Kirk and Noc to big deals. It never made sense to me why they were comparing Kirk to Steve Nash or any legit PG for that matter. Kirk is basically just like Ben Gordan but Ben has more of a killer mentality. As for Pax... he's the GM and should have known better and traded one of these guys last year during the draft and maybe we could have come out of it with KG or Marion for that matter.

by Takeaseat on Feb 12, 2008 2:31 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

To go back to Philadelphia,
World B. Free is a player who reminds me a lot of BG.  

He spent pretty much his entire career coming off the bench, yet still averaged just over 20 points per game.  

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 1:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Excellent comparisons
Matt & Alec.  I think you guys are really on to something...  Gordon really has value on a good team.  I hope we don't give him away

by exult463 on Feb 12, 2008 4:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If you take a look Alec
most of the league is filled with point guards that cant defended.  For that matter Isaiah Thomas wasn't very good defender it was Dumars and his supporting cast that did most of the defensive work.  The issue with Ben is his ball handling and that's it.  If BG were a better ball handler he would the starter no doubt.

by Takeaseat on Feb 12, 2008 12:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What would be your guess
for Gordon's USG% if the Bulls had Isiah Thomas and Joe Dumars in the back court?  Would it even be as high as Vinnies?  That's, yes, speculative, but debatable.
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 9:28 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Alec...
You should read this.
Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 9:37 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That's interesting
I do tend to watch sports from the GM's perspective.

by Scotter on Feb 12, 2008 9:43 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think most do.
Pro sports anyway. Well, fans who follow the game closely. College sports definitely, for obvious reasons, different.

I think it's near-impossible to follow a team closely and not think about how they can get better. I think it's part of wanting "your team" to win.  Sue does a good job of it, though.

Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 9:49 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think alot of fans watch from the coach's or
player's perspective.  If you watch from the coach's  perspective, your focused on winning every single game and only care about winning the season your playing.  It's not as long term and I see it a fair bit.  Player evaluations don't tend to extend beyond what they did last week or in their last game.

by Scotter on Feb 12, 2008 9:56 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ahhhh...
...good point.
Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 9:59 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Are you saying
I don't think about how this team can get better? You couldn't be more wrong. I think about it every day. It doesn't matter what I would do to make this team better because it doesn't matter.

If it makes you feel more of a man to keep insulting me have at it.

Never went to church camp but I did go to Girl Scout camp. If you ever need help making a campfire I'm your girl. :P

by sue369 on Feb 12, 2008 10:40 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It wasn't an insult.
Get over yourself old lady. (that was an insult) Since you don't express it here, and type things like, "I don't care who plays, I just want them to win," I can't know, can I? Forgive me for not attempting to mind-read. My guess is forgiveness isn't in your soul, though. (another speculative insult!)
Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 10:50 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I wasn't in a good
mood when I typed that. My husband had just lost his job and then I came in here and read 'so and so' better play more than 'so and so'. I looked at the big scheme of things and it didn't matter to me who played as long as they won.

I think I need to take a break from here for a  while.

Never went to church camp but I did go to Girl Scout camp. If you ever need help making a campfire I'm your girl. :P

by sue369 on Feb 12, 2008 11:05 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The USG%'s are
pretty similar actually.  Gordon in the past three years is at 26.3%, 29.3%, and 26.4%.  Johnson, during the Pistons run in the late 80s (which I assume is what alec is comparing Gordon to), had USG%'s of 25.7%, 25.9%, 25.1%, and 21.5%.  And USG is an overrated stat anyway.

Nobody here is comparing Ben Gordon's talent to Vinny Johnson's.  Clearly Gordon has produced at a higher level at an earlier age.  But a mid-20s Ben Gordon to an early-30's Vinny Johnson?  I think it's a fairly good comparison.

by YaoPau on Feb 12, 2008 11:23 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

1st, Johnson was 26 when that 7 year
run began, two years older than Gordon is now.  That matters.  Comparing FG% isn't very meaningful when one player takes a significant number of 3s and the other doesn't.  Last year Gordon had an assist % of 20%, which is roughly equal to anything Johnson did and compensates for a faster pace and higher FG% in the 80s.

Johnson was never the best offensive player on his team typically he was third or lower.  Gordon's played significantly more minutes and carried a much bigger load.  You harp on Gordon and Johnson not being full time PGs, but a big difference remains.  Gordon is good enough to be a full time SG, Johnson wasn't.  They may have both come of the bench, but their roles weren't the same.

by Scotter on Feb 12, 2008 8:58 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I appreciate your
actually engaging me in this conversation, rather than simply resorting to insults.

The comparison that I've been trying to forward is Vinnie's role and how he performed in that role for the great run of the mid-late '80's Pistons, and the role that Gordon seems to thrive in whenever he's played in similar game situations for this Bulls team.

It's no slight on Gordon.  Vinnie Johnson was an essential part of two championship teams.  He absolutely saved their bacon time after time.  But those Pistons had Isiah and Joe Dumars as their guards--one of the best point guards of all time and a Hall of Fame defender.  

A lot of people here have been clambering for a `true point guard'--a la Isiah.  If the Bulls had that, it would make undeniable sense to play Thabo at the 2 and bring BG in for `instant offense.'

In my view, Gordon is a role player...and to compare him to possibly the best in history at that particular role is a compliment to him, not an indictment of his shortcomings.  

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 9:14 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

sure it is
role player = not so good player.

As the refrain goes, LeBron James would supply so many 'instant offense' points off the bench that Red Kerr would squeal.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 9:32 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I guess you're right,
LeBron is another fair comparison to Ben Gordon.

Pegging Gordon as a role player is not an indictment of his shortcomings.  It is, however, an acknowledgement of them.

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 9:43 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

yeesh
role player, true point guard, instant offense, best of all time, blah, blah, blah.

Johnson wasn't a better player than Gordon, and he doesn't even rate when compared Ginobili, Havlicek, McHale, or Toni Kukoc. Simply coming off the bench first isn't really a role either.

You're giving Isiah Thomas and Vinnie Johnson a lot of credit for being teammates with Laimbeer, Rodman, Dumars, and Dantley.

Fire Boylan!

by hscs on Feb 12, 2008 9:51 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm talikng about a little guy
you bring in to shoot (and hopefully, make) a bunch of jump shots in a row.  C'mon, now.
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 10:05 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

and you're wrong about that
Gordon is a little guy brought in to score the most points, and uses the most possessions on the team in the process.  
Fire Boylan!

by hscs on Feb 12, 2008 10:14 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Listen, I get your point.
He's a better all around player than Vinnie Johnson.  He's not as good an all around player as Ray Allen.  That's all fine.  

The problem I have with Gordon is that you have to construct your whole on-court team structure around compensating for his liabilities.  That's why I called him the First Falling Domino.  I happen to feel that he's best suited to play a part-time role.  

If you fall behind and want to try to catch up quick, bring in BG.  Let him fire up a couple 3's, see if he's "on."  If he is, leave him out there a while.  But once you get back in the game, the principles of defense and team balance should take over...which means sending Ben back to the bench.

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 10:31 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

or since he's on more than he's off
start him. If he's getting abused on defense and not shooting well, bring in the stopper, Thabolicious.

The real solution is to hope that the rest of the team gets better, not replace Gordon. The team is already compensating for the liabilities of the players who can't play on offense. The first domino is Wallace can't play, the next is Duhon can't play (and Thabo's been slightly better), the third is Noc can't play.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 10:35 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, you're right about Wallace,
but nobody's arguing that...unless you read the Larry Brown excerpts from Waddle and Silverman.  :)
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 10:40 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

the Bulls fall behind without Gordon
The principle of the Bulls need offense too says so.
Fire Boylan!

by hscs on Feb 12, 2008 10:36 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

There are two ways to fall behind.
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 10:57 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well yeah,
Gordon uses the most possessions because he shoots the most.  I don't see how that makes him any less than a role player.  Case in point: Vinny Johnson led the Pistons in USG% in 87-88, 88-89.

by YaoPau on Feb 12, 2008 11:29 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Gordon's USG% every year has been higher
than Johnson's career high.  There's a lot more guys that can use 25% of possessions efficiently; the list gets a lot smaller at 29%.

by Scotter on Feb 12, 2008 3:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't buy it.
25% or 29%, Vinnie led a 60 win team in USG%, and he's a role player.  Besides, USG% basically indicates whether or not you jack up a high percentage of your team's shots, it has very little to do with evaluating the "completeness" of a player.

Take the Nets for example.  Last year, Jason Kidd had a USG% of 19.4% while Bostjan Nachbar was at 19.3%.  I mean, USG% is kind of crap...

by YaoPau on Feb 12, 2008 6:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Nice synopsis
I agree that Gordon gets dissed an awful lot considering his production.  I know he started off the year terribly and has rebounded....much of Gordon's statistical problems occur because the other 4 guys on the court have a tendency to COMPLETELY defer to Gordon in large stretches....and they just basically stand and watch with little to no movement.  Gordon was forced to be a chucker and was at least trying often to make something happen when absolutely nothing was there.

Hinrich's surprisingly AWFUL start also didn't help Gordon, as the complete lack of an NBA PG until Jan (when Kirk snapped out of his funk only to shortly go on the injury list) really forced the small BG to become PG and SG at the same time, and while at times BG can be a decent PG, he is always best suited in that role for spot minutes because of his ball handling deficiencies.

If Hinrich and Deng had come out of the gate playing the way they had last year, and if we had an inside presence to at least keep defenses honest, Gordon would really shine this year.  Again he's proving to be our best player, yet his size deficiencies and the fact that when BG is being BG the rest of the team has a tendency to become bystanders, might spell out the end of the Gordon era....he'll likely move onto another team and really shine and be the eventual all star player we think he could be....

by majoyenrac on Feb 12, 2008 5:43 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

To me he's
not the best player but the best scorer. If he played better defense and handled the ball better then maybe he would be the best player. This team doesn't have a "best" player.

I feel that a lot of BG's problems are because he wants the ball. He wants to be the go to guy. He has said this several times. When he gets stuck and can't make a play and the other guys are standing around does BG try to direct the other players on his team to move so he can get them the ball? Why would his team mates try to get open if they know he's not going to give up the ball?

Never went to church camp but I did go to Girl Scout camp. If you ever need help making a campfire I'm your girl. :P

by sue369 on Feb 12, 2008 8:46 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

His teammates
Should at least move to dispel that notion. Gordon seems to try to do what's best for the team....he's been ok coming off the bench (and if anything shined) because he thought that would help the team given our slump this year (it has a bit, but we've still got many other issues)....I give BG credit for that, I know in years past he's made issues with him coming off the bench, but in year's past we weren't this 07-08 Bulls, and being as bad as we are it's nice to see Ben try to do something to help the team (that also seems to have helped him, even if it might inhibit him in contract negotiations next season).

I totally think BG's our "star" player, he's just not fitted with another solid take charge on O player.  Gordon's never going to be a franchise #1, but he'd be a great #2 or #3 guy (and will be all star worthy).

Again, without any threat on the inside and with a SF (Deng) who defers too much in the clutch and a PG (Hinrich) who seems to be a fan of BG's game (a watcher even though Hinrich arguably has more all around skills, just not quite the offensive skills that make Ben so valuable).....Gordon's always asked to do too much and that doing too much highlights his negatives....

If we weren't stupid and had grabbed Gasol at the end of last year's trading deadline for Deng, PJ Brown and maybe Duhon, then we'd be in a different spot now and Gordon would be at his first all star game this year....

That hasn't happened, and now the team's a complete mess.

by majoyenrac on Feb 12, 2008 12:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ray Allen is 6'5"
and suffers from none of Gordon's small man syndrome.  
Ray Allen has roughly 2XGordon in steals, and 2xGordon in rebounds.
Ray Allen has started 830 of the 834 games he's played in.  Gordon has started less than half his games.

But they're both from Connecticut.

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 8:41 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

small man syndrome is on you
and unless you're Ben Wallace, players aren't in charge of who starts.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 9:02 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

and huh?
Age 24 (so this half-season for Gordon), rebounds per 36

Allen: 4.2
Gordon: 3.5

Look thingzzzz up.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 9:08 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You might do the same
career Gordon: 2.9
career Allen: 4.6

OK, not 2X (merely 63% more), but I did say roughly.

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 9:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

look up more appropriate things then
I don't think sBulls was saying Gordon's had a better career than Ray Allen.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 9:30 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I am in no way implying he did.
He said Ray Allen is an appropriate comparison for BG.  I say that BG has benefited tremendously from playing on bad teams, and that a more neutral comparison would be Vinnie Johnson.

Ray Allen has been an elite starting player his entire career--a 7 time All-Star.  Contrast that (not `compare') with Ben Gordon's one 6th Man Award.  What does a 6th Man Award tell you, anyway?

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 9:59 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

elite, all-star, 6th man
these are just words, man. Labels.

You're right, Ray Allen would've gotten some 6th man awards too if his coaches forced him on the bench to start Chris Duhon.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 10:06 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He didn't make an All-Star team until
his 4th season.  And has only managed to make one 2nd and one 3rd team All-NBA.  Don't confuse me using Ray Allen as a comparison with me arguing that Ray Allen is a superstar level player.  Allen's a 2nd tier shooting guard.  He should be the third best player on a really good team.  But, he's still better than Vinnie Johnson.

by Scotter on Feb 12, 2008 10:06 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think it's safe to say
this year won't mark Gordon's first All-Star team.  If he were only a starter, maybe he'd stand a chance.
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 10:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Per game stats are stupid.
Stop being stupid.
Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 9:31 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Jeez, people are a bit sensitive
about their little Ben Gordons.
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 9:45 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Nice red herring.
Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 9:50 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I try.
;)
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 10:03 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Really?
That sucks. I thought you'd at least be honest. Is admitting you're intentionally deceptive being dishonest? How's that philosophize?
Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 10:05 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Get a grip on yourself.
Well, maybe not.

Just trying to maintain a little perspective.  

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 10:17 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The difference in rebounding
shows up almost entirely at the offensive end.  Allen grabs 10% of defensive boards and Gordon 9%.  Allen doubles up Gordon on the offensive boards, but Gordon's role is to get back on defense.

by Scotter on Feb 12, 2008 9:35 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

To what purpose ?
Earn a max contract :-)
The Game chose him !

by Diabolo on Feb 12, 2008 9:58 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Here's how I decided I could ignore the
height difference.

Do they do lots of similar things on the basketball court.  Similar % of jumpshots?  yes.  Similar % of 3 pointers? yes.  Similar % of FTA?  yes.  Similar turnover rates? yes.  Similar eFG% and TS%? yes.  Similar role in the offense?  yes.
Does the player use his height to do significantly different things than the other player, such as score from the post or play better defense?  no.

by Scotter on Feb 12, 2008 9:50 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It doesn't matter,
he doesn't have to.  

by Scotter on Feb 12, 2008 9:59 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It does matter
because whoever has to guard him is then playing out of position.
Goodbye Viktor, and Godspeed.

by bullshooter on Feb 12, 2008 10:12 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Right. His defensive,
shall we say, `shortcomings,' cause whoever is his back court mate to play out of position and try to guard Ray Allen.  By this time, I doubt there's a basketball fan in America who doesn't understand how that has made Hinrich's offense, as well as his defense, and by extension, the whole team, suffer.
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 10:13 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So maybe we should bash Hinrich then
Ray Allen can't guard Gordon either. But he is taller, so I guess asthetically it puts fans at ease.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 10:32 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And bashing Hinrich
would be a change?  

Hinrich has only recently received a reprieve from the incessant bashing...and this is primarily because his play has improved so dramatically since getting paired regularly with Thabo.

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 10:51 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

or it's just improved
because he's getting back to his norms.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 10:57 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You choose to ignore
Hinrich's own words?
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 11:04 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That's certainly your prerogative.
You're a funny guy, Matt.  You fall hopelessly in love with certain players, then build walls of evidence about why they are deserving, the walls blocking out all evidence to the contrary.
You fortify the weak spots with pitch made of insults.
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 11:22 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

you're evidence to the contrary
has been easily dismissed before.
Fire Boylan!

by hscs on Feb 12, 2008 11:23 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry, did you feel left out?
OK.  You, too, fall in love, etc., etc.
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 11:31 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Or, you could look at YaoPau
if you have a taste for more facts and less speculation.
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 12:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ok
Before this season, I was convinced Ben Gordon was the 2nd best player on this team.  His past track record shows that.  This season's team has performed the worst since we had these core group of guys together and I think Ben Gordon has played a large role in that.  You said it yourself that Ben Gordon has played the most minutes when the team got off to a terrible start.  I don't think that's a very good excuse to explain his terrible oncourt/offcourt numbers.  In fact, I think it would be more accurate to use that stat to say he was a big reason why the team got off to such a poor start.

What does Ben Gordon add to the team when his shot wasn't falling?  He was shooting terribly to begin the season and had more turnovers than assists.  He doesn't get to the line a whole lot, so we end up having a guy who bricks most of his shots and provides very little else to start the season.  He has been great in terms of oncourt/offcourt stats for his career except this year...where he is terrible.  In many respects Ben Gordon is like the Bulls as a whole.  The Bulls have always been a decent team ever since Gordon joined the team...except this year.  Gordon's stats have always shown that the team does better with him on the court...except this year...where the stats show the team does much better without him on the court.  It may not be a stretch to say that these stats are a fluke...but are we ready to say that the Bulls' struggles this season are a fluke as well?

by Parrotman on Feb 12, 2008 9:50 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yes.
Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 9:53 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If the Bulls' struggles this season are a fluke
we should just plan this team around last year's performance and forget this season even happened

by Parrotman on Feb 12, 2008 9:56 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Um... no.
It's cool you don't understand. This season matters of course. Fluke? I'll let this season finish before I determine how good or bad it was on an individual bases (basis? no idea). Here's something.
Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 10:04 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

um ok?
Yay, hooray for projections and weighted averages, etc.  The bulls were projected to be an eastern conference contender.  Now, our coach has been fired and we're talking about lottery.  Ben Gordon has played a huge role in the struggles of this team so far...but I guess we'll wait until the season is over to see if we're an eastern conference contender (I guess I'm not the optimist you are).  What this season has shown so far is that this team can play terrible for long stretches at a time...just like Ben Gordon to start off the year.

by Parrotman on Feb 12, 2008 10:14 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

R E A D S L O W E R
Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 10:25 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

...wow
First you say it is a fluke...then you go back and say it isn't a fluke and link me to an irrelevant site.  Do you actually have a point?

by Parrotman on Feb 12, 2008 10:28 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sigh
I'm not done evaluating the season for individual players like you are. There are still two months left in the season. It's highly unlikely that any of them will put up season-long numbers better than what they did last year (as one would expect from young players), and since it's happening to virtually every player on the team, I consider that a "fluke". However, most of them (the core, anyway) have played significantly better since the end of November. If they improve on those numbers still, which I don't think is impossible, then yeah, I wouldn't consider it so much a "fluke" as just a shitty, shitty start to the season.

Does that make sense?

Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 10:47 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well it's a midseason evaluation
and I'm just evaluating Ben Gordon so far this season

by Parrotman on Feb 12, 2008 11:06 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough.
But in your first comment you admitted that you went from three years of good data thinking he was the second best player on the team to half a season of data and drawing the conclusion (or implying such) that both Gordon's season and the Bulls' season weren't flukes.

I'm just saying let's wait until the end of the season before we even can think about whether it was a fluke. So far, I'm only seeing a first-month fluke (w/ some injuries since), not a whole season's worth. By defining it as such, I expect that to remain the case the rest of the season.

Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 11:12 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

well
I was still holding out hope everything was a fluke after the first month of the season.  However, we still haven't clawed our way back to respectability like we have in season's past.  Gordon has not gotten his oncourt/offcourt numbers back to respectability either.  If this whole half of the season was a fluke and they play at their past level for the next half of the season...they are still as a whole worse this season.  Great teams aren't supposed to be this inconsistent and great players like Gordon aren't supposed to be that bad for that long.  There may be some exceptions but it remains hard to be optimistic.

by Parrotman on Feb 12, 2008 11:44 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think Gordon's a great player.
He's a flawed player, something "great players" aren't. And, personally, I never thought this team was "great". From what I gathered, the only way they were really better than than the Pistons and Celtics were because they have owned the Pistons outside of the playoffs and that someone on the Celtics would get hurt from playing 40+ mpg. I felt they could be a better team relative to themselves last year, but not better positionally to the other EC teams.

But yes, great/elite/superstar players/teams aren't this inconsistent. Or something.

Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 11:58 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

wow, what a way to waste a day
sbulls is right, statistics are helpful to put things in context.  It's only fair then to highlight BG's role and stated desire as "the guy to take the last shot."  I think an analysis of his performance in this role would be especially helpful and insightful with respect to all the arguing we do around here as to how BG's contract extension should be handled.  There was some analysis done on APBR and as I remember, BG was pretty low down the list on guys you'd want to have the ball in pressure situations.  I'll see if I can find it, but if somebody could provide that link again, that would be really helpful.

I think BG is a fine player, but an exceptional sixth man.  And I don't think he should be starting when there are other suitable options based largely on how other teams target him and attack him offensively.  When he comes off of the bench, it completely changes the equation for how teams can gameplan.

Goodbye Viktor, and Godspeed.

by bullshooter on Feb 12, 2008 9:55 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

why do you keep saying that?
"changes how teams gameplan". What the hell does that mean?

Do you think teams aren't helped in gameplanning when they see a worse player starting? I suppose there's less time between all the high-fives.

And I really don't care about 'pressure situations' with this group. Get Gordon some teammates as good as him and maybe his desire to take the last shot will work better as someone else does the hard work that gets him open. I don't see the problem in the mentality of wanting to take late-game shots (I thought it was a strength, actually). The problem is that he's part of the NBA epidemic of just clearing everyone out and running isolation on final plays.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 10:03 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

worse player?
Gordon is only good at shooting.  Thabo is a better defender.  And if you are playing a team where the best offensive players are in the backcourt, which is a lot of teams, then you want to try to stop them from getting easy buckets.  BG doesn't do that.  But when he comes off of the bench, he gets easy buckets for the bulls, not vice versa, because he is matched up against worse players.  So if Thabo can just play even with the other teams starters, BG has a decided advantage against the second team.

Wanting to take the last shot is an admirable quality, not being very effective at getting the bucket isn't.

Get BG better teammates?  If BG were as good as his teammates defensively, we wouldn't be having this or any of the other BG related conversations we've had recently.

Goodbye Viktor, and Godspeed.

by bullshooter on Feb 12, 2008 10:18 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

they were the best defense in the league
last year. Team defense isn't just putting both lineups on either side of a ledger and saying "ok this guy is taller than this guy, this other dude can guard this guy', etc."

Thabo can get easier buckets against worse players off the bench too. That works for every player, and I don't understand it. I don't get the goal in 'staying even' with the first-team, and having to wait until the other team makes a sub to get your best offensive player in the game. Once again, this team's offense sucks. They need players who can score. More of them, too. Heck, if they had Pau Gasol (let alone Tim Duncan like Manu does) I'd be happier with benching Gordon.

It'd be nice if Gordon could defend SGs better. It'd be nice if Thabo could 'shoot'. I believe shooting is more important from a 'shooting' guard. It's not guarding guard (ha!)

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 10:28 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, Thabo might be able to
grow into that role.

Ben Gordon, alas, won't.

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 10:36 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sefolosha is almost done growing
If he can't shoot now, he's not going to get much better at it.
Fire Boylan!

by hscs on Feb 12, 2008 10:39 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

how do you know he can't shoot?
Did you scout him in Switzerland?  Because he's played about 30 games so far, that's a pretty small sample size.

And here's another thing I don't get: Why is it ok to pull the clearly superior offensive player in Joe Smith to develop TT, but it isn't ok to put BG in the sixth man role where he has flourished, to develop Thabo?

Goodbye Viktor, and Godspeed.

by bullshooter on Feb 12, 2008 10:44 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Cause, who cares about Joe Smith?
Smith's 32. Tyrus is 21.

Gordon's 24. Thabo is 23.

Gordon's flourished as a starter too. Thabo isn't a rookie.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 10:47 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

TT isn't a rookie either
he's a second year player like Thabo.  And bringing BG off of the bench doesn't impact his minutes in any way, so what's the big deal?  Gordon's flourished offensively only.  And bringing him off of the bench hasn't impacted that either.
Goodbye Viktor, and Godspeed.

by bullshooter on Feb 12, 2008 10:49 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I meant that to respond to
your '30 games' argument for Thabo.

BG off the bench apparently IS a big deal, because he's now labeled as a 'bench player' and that's becoming extended to the label of 'expendable'.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 10:56 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I like to think a more appropriate label
would be top 3 sixth man and potential all-star.  He's got a much better chance to shine as a sixth man than he does as a starter.  And I am not arguing to get rid of him, just not to sign him to a huge contract.
Goodbye Viktor, and Godspeed.

by bullshooter on Feb 12, 2008 11:03 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Right
Before it was, "I [general] don't care how he gets his minutes as long as he does. If he does, he'll still be scoring and helping the team." Now it's, "Gordon isn't that important because he's not a 'legit starter'."

If you want to make Gordon a sixth man, get a better shooting guard.

Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 11:06 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

right, or a better anything
If they get more bonafide offensive talent with the first team, then they can continue this clever scheme with Gordon.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 11:10 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You may not like it.
and believe it or not, I don't like it either, but face the facts:  Ben Gordon is already as good as gone.  

It's time to start thinking about how to maximize his exit.

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 11:08 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He's only gone
if he is chasing the dollars.
Goodbye Viktor, and Godspeed.

by bullshooter on Feb 12, 2008 11:12 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

In this regard
I think he dropped a subtle hint in turning down $10 mil per...

by Bass on Feb 12, 2008 1:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Thabo is older, and hasn't flashed as many flashes
And it's easier to find another wing than another power forward. There was a time when I believed Ben Gordon would be around longer than Joe Smith too.
Fire Boylan!

by hscs on Feb 12, 2008 10:49 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I hope BG is around longer, too
but he should have a higher PER than Joe Smith, too.
Goodbye Viktor, and Godspeed.

by bullshooter on Feb 12, 2008 11:06 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

eh, he'll get there
hopefully Pax parlays this season by Joe into something worthwhile, and Gordon wins by default :)

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 11:08 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Even Gordon needs pt to improve his shot
like Thabo has been doing.

Or did we already forget the first 20 games of the season?

by RogersPark Kris on Feb 12, 2008 10:55 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm willing to go out on a limb
and say that Thabo has more room for upside variation on his shooting percentage than Gordon has upside potential on his up side.

One thing Thabo can do is simply post up or drive more often...which he is already beginning to do.  

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 10:47 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

post up?
when have you seen Thabo play a post game?  Because I've yet to see this on-the-low-block game of Thabo's that you speak of...

by ScottieCartwright on Feb 12, 2008 11:57 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

While I'm looking,
Here's some nice dunk contest video (profane sondtrack warning):

http://youtube.com/watch?v=rvrexKQBcfw&feature=related

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 12:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Was it the Bobcats???
I thought it was, but maybe not...but yes i do remember him posting up on a small guard a few times, and in that particular game (was it bobcats???) he scored 3 times in a row by posting up the guard. They isolate him and the smallish guard and he posts up...it happens u just havent been paying attention.
im trying hard to become the next kirk hinrich, therefore im doing nothing more than being the next chris duhon.

by piccolomair on Feb 12, 2008 12:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I was wondering about that too
but I do remember when he abused Matt Carroll in the post.
Goodbye Viktor, and Godspeed.

by bullshooter on Feb 12, 2008 12:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

eh...
posting up Matt Carroll (as bullshooter says) 3 times isn't exactly lighting the world on fire or something to be writing home about

I've watched every single game, and even if he did post up Carroll in that game, there have been 8 games since the Charlotte one, and I don't remember seeing Thabo in the post during any of those games.

Granted, I'm not saying that he can't be an effective and/or consistent post player...I'm just not seeing it now.

I'd take a tightly contested BG long 3 over a Thabo post-up any day  :-)

by ScottieCartwright on Feb 12, 2008 1:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

ah he wont be an effect post threat
But at 6'8, that means theres plenty of guards smaller than him, and if we are talking about his lack of a decent jumper, then the fact that he can take smaller guards into the post is a nice attribute to have. Also i dont think thabos midrange game is as bad as his 3pt shot. I think he can play a bit like luol, in which he just slashes and takes mid range shots, and the occaisonal midget post up...its just arguing that he isnt a liabilitiy on offense.
im trying hard to become the next kirk hinrich, therefore im doing nothing more than being the next chris duhon.

by piccolomair on Feb 12, 2008 1:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

size or no size
if his shot doesn't get better, it doesn't matter WHO he has in the post, he won't score.  Just because he has a height advantage that means he should post up and be able to score?  Ask Tyson how that went.

by ScottieCartwright on Feb 12, 2008 2:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

yes but
IM not saying he should score, im saying he does. He has a decent shot within 20 feet...its his outside shot that sucks horribly, being able to post up and get a closer shot works for him, i do realize its still limited, but im just suggesting that he is not a complete liability on offense. The height in the end gives him some edge.
im trying hard to become the next kirk hinrich, therefore im doing nothing more than being the next chris duhon.

by piccolomair on Feb 12, 2008 2:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think he's an offensive liability at all.
Since Thabo started getting consistent minutes(26 or more) Jan. 13, he's shot 44%.

by CrashDavis on Feb 12, 2008 4:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Team defense is about understanding
how the other team is going to attack you, which is why BG is always put on the weaker offensive guard.    And BG came off of the bench last year for 31 games too.  There's a reason why he gets pushed and pulled out of the starting lineup, and it isn't because the coach thinks it's funny to watch BG squirm.  I don't think we've seen enough of Thabo to know that he can't shoot, yet.
Goodbye Viktor, and Godspeed.

by bullshooter on Feb 12, 2008 10:41 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

it's because the coaches believe
in magic bench sauce. And I think they're wrong about it.

What about the other team's defense? Make them worry about who to put on Ben Gordon.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 10:44 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

.459 TS% and no arc
in over 500 attempts shouldn't keep anyone's hopes up.
Fire Boylan!

by hscs on Feb 12, 2008 10:46 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

yuh, it's a combination of seeing it not go in
and seeing why it doesn't go in.

I think Thabo can get a better too overall. But his shot is flat and I don't see how THAT would change. Frankly, Tyrus' jumper looks more primed for improvement.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 10:50 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Thabo's dunks are flat too
and he gets to the rim a lot more easily than BG does.
Goodbye Viktor, and Godspeed.

by bullshooter on Feb 12, 2008 10:52 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

which way is the TS% trending?
and 500 shots over 1.5 seasons isn't exactly regular work.
Goodbye Viktor, and Godspeed.

by bullshooter on Feb 12, 2008 10:51 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

at a glance
his month by month shooting is about as consistent as his minutes. Regular work aside, there is enough data to be disappointed in, and his shooting form isn't promising.
Fire Boylan!

by hscs on Feb 12, 2008 11:02 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

take another look
his percentages are going up month over month.  I think it'll keep going up, too, as he learns the league.
Goodbye Viktor, and Godspeed.

by bullshooter on Feb 12, 2008 11:10 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If offense is so important
Why do I not see all of you trying to get Nocioni as many minutes on the court as possible?  Nocioni averages about as many points per minute as Gordon and more points per shot this season.

by Parrotman on Feb 12, 2008 11:16 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

because Gordon
has been a positive contributor at shooting guard. Nocioni's defensive and rebounding weaknesses make him a liability at power forward. It's no surprise that more minutes at small forward this season have helped Nocioni not hurt the team as much.
Fire Boylan!

by hscs on Feb 12, 2008 11:22 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Gordon
has not been a positive contributor so far this season at shooting guard

by Parrotman on Feb 12, 2008 11:46 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

not to quibble
but BG's adjusted +/- would belie that.
Goodbye Viktor, and Godspeed.

by bullshooter on Feb 12, 2008 11:51 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ben started to blog his reply to this...
Or people allow the falling down and turnovers with the shot clock running down to overwhelm everything else Gordon does

"Damn right! Thanks for this. I wish the fans would just realize-"

[loud thud]

[long pause]

[audible groan]

"S-sorry. Dang housekeeper must've waxed my floors. I'm alright though--and don't worry...we'll get it on the next possession. How much time is on the clock?"

by T Maple on Feb 12, 2008 10:28 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

step away from the minutiae for a second
Gordon's not the perfect player, but he's basically tied with Joe Smith for the best offensive rating on the team at 107, while also using the most possessions.  In short, he's still the best offensive player on the team and the guy you should want taking shots.

The real questions are:

  • How much money is the "best offensive player" on a bad offensive team worth?
  • If Gordon wants more money than that, how difficult would it be to find a replacement SG capable of matching his production?
  • Looking at the team as a whole, are other players capable of improving offensively enough to make up for losing Gordon?
To my mind the answers are:
  • Significantly less than 5 years/$50 million
  • Not sure, but finding quality SG's is always going to be easier than finding big men. You could cherry pick statistics if you want (not many SG's have a PER of 18.4, but plenty have an adjusted +/- of better than -8.7), but I think about it this way:  how many NBA teams have a legitimate weakness at the 2?
  • Before this year, I would have said "definitely yes", but Deng hasn't improved, Hinrich has regressed, and Thomas/Noah/Sefolosha are still in the "too early to say" category.
Bottom line: as valuable as Gordon is to the Bulls, he's gone if he wants more money than Hinrich.  I'm not saying that Hinrich is "better", I'm just betting that Paxson's calculations add up to that result.  
vanillablue.wordpress.com

by vanillablue on Feb 12, 2008 11:34 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

And, rightlyor wrongly,
Hinrich's already got his money.  Now, when Pax reaches into his money jar, he has to reach a lot further down to find some coins.
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 11:48 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Nice post
I'm not sure Ben's less than 5/$50M, but in the context of the mistakes we're living with (Wallace, Noc), I doubt the Bulls will be willing to pay any more than that.

I actually think SG is probably the second hardest position to play well. There's a pretty broad section of SG's that are more or less the same in quality, but only a few that really bring something to the table.

I've said before we can't live with him and can't live without him with regards to Gordon.  In the short run though (since we're not exactly on the cusp of a championship), the better solution is probably to try and cash him in for a prospect.

Well, better solution given the way the Bulls approach finances.  In my ideal world, they'd pay Gordon because he really is a uniquely nice player, but since that'd influence their other thinking (the way Wallace and Smith currently influence it), I'm thinking within that reality.

by Sports2 on Feb 12, 2008 1:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Can't we deal Gordon
to a top 5 lottery bound team?  They can have Gordon and we'll get the ping pong balls.

I'd be more than pleased to trade Ben Gordon for the chance to draft Eric Gordon.

by NBA Observer on Feb 12, 2008 12:49 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

or bayless
from arizona...wow

by Conor on Feb 12, 2008 1:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

if the bullst rade BG for Rasual Butler
they are going to have plenty of their own ping pong balls.
Goodbye Viktor, and Godspeed.

by bullshooter on Feb 12, 2008 1:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

E. Gordon
NBA comparison = B. Gordon
I vote for Thomas to play, play more and play regularly.-Sam Smith

by tyrus4prez on Feb 12, 2008 1:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Eric Gordon
is at least twice as aggressive as Ben Gordon at going to the rim and he's doing this as a freshman.  Ben Gordon wasn't even doing this as a junior at UCONN.

by NBA Observer on Feb 12, 2008 1:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

where he
won the ncaa title...no big deal

by Conor on Feb 12, 2008 1:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

so they aren't similiar players?
I just find it funny that you are willing to get rid of Ben for a chance at Eric.  Eric Gordon wouldn't solve this teams "small" backcourt problems.  
I vote for Thomas to play, play more and play regularly.-Sam Smith

by tyrus4prez on Feb 12, 2008 1:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

similar in stature
but completely different styles...you can't compare the two.  That's like comparing Allen Iverson to Richard Hamilton.  Two shooting guards who are both effective at what they do, they just go about it in different ways.

by ScottieCartwright on Feb 12, 2008 1:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

for a guy
who has been pretty damn productive his nba career, there are a lot of haters when it comes to bg.  why? because he is our best scoring option? nope, it's because he is short.  nevermind the fact that he is one of the most fit and strongest guys in the league.  yeah, totally ignore how he busts his ass to improve his game.  that isnt important, just focus on his mediocre year(a bad start, and now injuries) in a year where every other bull has regressed, not just bg.  question his loyalty when he his hurt.  cant a guy be hurt?  this is the first time he has missed significant time.  i mean shit, his wrist is bothering him, dont you need your wrist of your shooting hand to be comfortable in order to be effective?  he is only 24 going on 25 ! what happened to guys taking a few years to come into their own in the nba.  everybody wants the quick fix, look at the demands on tyrus.  in the nba, guys typically dont reach their prime until their late 20's, so lets ease up on bg, he is only the guy who led the bulls from crap back to some sort of respectability during his short nba career.
like joni mitchell said, "you dont know what you got till its gone."

by Conor on Feb 12, 2008 1:21 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

-8.7 in adjusted +-
Did Joni Mitchell also write a song about getting as much as your giving?

I sure hope so.  Mix tape it and send it to BG.

by NBA Observer on Feb 12, 2008 1:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

isnt ben still
on his rookie deal?  paying a guy 4 mil to average 20 a game is a pretty good deal.  i would say he is giving more than he is getting. to be honest, not sure what your point is???
you see, that is what i am talking about.  the questioning of ben's work ethic and loyalty is what astounds me the most.  i dont get where it it coming from.  skiles never had a problem with bg's hustle or whatever, and i think that is an indication that there never was a problem, we would have heard about it from skiles.  a lot of people on here demand results instantly, like that is a realistic scenario anyway, and are furious when those results arent met.  not saying you are one of those people, observer, i agree with you most of the time.  seriously, though, people have to get off the damn negative train and relax, the bulls future is still bright, and risky trades and all that shit could take us right back to 2001.  ugh

by Conor on Feb 12, 2008 1:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The questions about Ben Gordon
are not his work ethic.  They are not about his ability to score.  The big questions are his turnovers at crucial points in close games which is the result of average ball handling skills an asset that prevents scoring guards from becoming elite players.  The big questions are his defense which over his career have shown to be exploited more and more as BG is scouted more.  The big questions are if his scoring ability can lead to more free throw attempts which is a must for an undersized guard trying to score more than he is going to give up.

Kevin Martin, drafted way later than Gordon, signed a reported 5 year 55 million dollar contract extension.  Martin is already the polished scoring guard that gets to the free throw line.  He's also 6'7" which takes away many of the defensive weaknesses that are exploited in Ben Gordon.

One of the only differences that can account for the two is that Martin scores in the Western conference that play as a faster pace and Ben Gordon plays in the Eastern Conference as a slower pace.

by NBA Observer on Feb 12, 2008 2:06 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i dont think
bg can do it alone, and there is no doubt his game needs to improve, but you cannot deny his ability to score.  and for a team that lacks a consistent scorer, bg is a huge asset.  bg is not stupid, and understands there are weaknesses in his game that he has to work on in order to be a better all around player. i think his athleticism and continued experience will help him improve.  again, i dont expect a lot of teams to throw a ton of money at him, and i think he will wise up and realize 10 mil a year is a fantastic deal.  but yes, if he stands pat and doesnt budge and expects 13 - 14 mil a year, then pax needs to move him.

by Conor on Feb 12, 2008 2:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

are you following me?
Do you understand that Ben Gordon RIGHT NOW gives up more than can give back?

The only way BG increases his giving is by somehow finding a way to get 6-8 free throw attempts per game.  He's far more likely to increase output than he is in decreasing the opponents output against him.

My solution for BG is to get him traded to the Western Conference.  Turning down the 5 year, 50 mil deal makes it almost impossible because any team we send him to will know what's at stake in the offseason.

Seattle is one place I'd like to try and fleece their lottery pick.  Perhaps a Ben Gordon for Earl Watson deal would work.  I really don't like Watson at all, but I'm already thinking about future acquisitions anyway since their is no ideal trade that involves getting anything respectable back for Ben Gordon.

by NBA Observer on Feb 12, 2008 2:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

as a draftnik
why do you assume teams are always willing to deal away their top5 picks? That's the only thing they can sell as hope to their fans, and especially to draft losers like y'all :-p

Gordon's having a bad season thus far. Up until now he gives more than gives back.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 2:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Do I assume that?
I don't think so.  If it does come out that way it is likely due to the fact that I consistently use Seattle as an example.  I used them as a place to dump Ben Wallace as well.

What I am picturing is selling a team that just came off out of the lottery with healthy selections, is rebuilding, and would perhaps deal for a veteran rather than take another dip in the top five 19 year old swimming pool.

There is that and then the Knicks history of trading their lottery picks.

by NBA Observer on Feb 12, 2008 3:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Huh?
A rebuilding team wants to trade a Top 5 pick for a "veteran" that could leave after this season? Huh-huh?
Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 3:12 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i am following you
i just see it a different way.  RIGHT NOW bg is still maturing as a player, so why give up on him?  i dont think we have seen the best ben gordon

by Conor on Feb 12, 2008 3:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What variables in Ben Gordon are still maturing?
I presume that none of the variables are relative to defense.  If they are, that would need more explanation for me to understand.

by NBA Observer on Feb 12, 2008 3:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

did ben gordon f*ck your girlfriend or something?
where is all this bg animosity coming from?  jesus.... anyway, all i am saying is that gordon has to keep working hard at getting better on d, and his athleticism, strength and work ethic should help him improve.  the older he gets, the more he understands

by Conor on Feb 12, 2008 3:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I've been a big BG fan until this season
I was very disappointed that he declined Chicago's contract offer.  If the reports are true, that offer was roughly 5 years for between 50 and 55 million.

But the contract isn't the BIG thing with me.  Sure I would love to have him secured perhaps with more money for fewer seasons, but that's over and we cannot change or amend that history.

This is where I start when scouting Ben Gordon.  I ask - what will Ben Gordon produce tonight?  I then ask - what will Ben Gordon give up tonight?  Gordon has been able to placate many of his known deficiencies by scoring more points and benefiting from exceeding expectations of the players around him.  Once those other players plateaued, almost all of Ben Gordon's negatives started to float on the surface.

I move on.  I accept that Ben Gordon's defense is the least likely to improve despite being his lowest level of achievement and thus has the greatest room for improvement.  Therefore, Ben's efficiency must come from improved offense.

So from where does that improvement originate.  Two areas it has to come from are dribbling and getting to the free throw line.  The two compliment each other and allow enhancement in his most deadly asset, his perimeter shooting.  With a dribble penetration game that results in increased free throw attempts he will only be given more space on the perimeter or teams will have to cheat over and double him beyond the arc for a trap.  So his passing game has to get better as well to limit turnovers.

In my judgment, Ben Gordon can't get to where he has to get offensively to continue a role with the Chicago Bulls.  He may be able to do it with another franchise, particularly a Western conference club, but a bum wrist and declining a contract extension don't help his case for sticking around.

What do you think?  Make your case for Ben Gordon.  Why should I want to keep Ben Gordon with the Chicago Bulls?

by NBA Observer on Feb 12, 2008 4:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I've been a fan of Kirk until this season
This is where I start when scouting Kirk Hinrich.  I ask - what will Kirk Hinrich produce tonight?  I then ask - what will Kirk Hinrich give up tonight?  Hinrich has been able to placate many of his known deficiencies by playing pretty average defense and benefiting from exceeding expectations of the players around him.  Once those other players plateaued, almost all of Kirk Hinrich's negatives started to float on the surface.

I move on.  I accept that Kirk Hinrich's offense & leadership is the least likely to improve despite being his lowest level of achievement and thus has the greatest room for improvement.  Therefore, Kirk's efficiency must come from improved uhhh...everything.

So from where does that improvement originate.  Two areas it has to come from are scoring points and doing a better job of running the offense.  The two compliment each other and allow enhancement in his most deadly asset, being the starting point guard.  With better leadership skills, that will result in increased points for other teammates and they will only be given more space on the perimeter or teams will have to cheat over and double them beyond the arc for a trap.  So his overall floor game has to get better as well to limit turnovers.

In my judgment, Kirk Hinrich can't get to where he has to get offensively to continue a role with the Chicago Bulls.  He may be able to do it with another franchise, particularly a Western conference club, but with mopey shoulders and lack of leadership and floor game don't help his case for sticking around.

What do you think?  Make your case for Kirk Hinrich.  Why should I want to keep Kirk Hinrich with the Chicago Bulls?

==========

see, you're nothing special, I can do it too  :-)

by ScottieCartwright on Feb 12, 2008 4:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

you made it most of the day
without tearing down kirk, you were so close.  stop foaming.
Goodbye Viktor, and Godspeed.

by bullshooter on Feb 12, 2008 4:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Fuck, it's a trap
I make an attempt to hash out a disagreement with another BAB reader.  We're making pretty good progress in my view.  We're going back and forth trying to understand each other's point of view.

Thanks for the commentary.

by NBA Observer on Feb 12, 2008 4:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't get why he can improve elsewhere
but not as a Bull. There's different styles of teams in both conferences. Are you saying he has to be on a team that doesn't care about defense?

You're right, he's most likely to improve by keeping his turnovers low (so far this season, so good, despite 'BG amplification') and getting smarter at how to draw contact in the lane. Eventually the officials will respect his drives if he flails the correct way. :)

And I really don't care about your psychological issues ("first I ask myself...") when evaluating Gordon. If it's just a nerve-rattled way of thinking about +/-, then outside of this year he's peformed well. I still maintain that having a seive defender (and he can improve at that as well albeit marginally) at the guard spot isn't that big of a deal. Is he even that bad compared to a lot of other scoring guards in the league?

And I have no idea what you mean: "Gordon has been able to placate many of his known deficiencies by scoring more points and benefiting from exceeding expectations of the players around him.  Once those other players plateaued, almost all of Ben Gordon's negatives started to float on the surface."

Right, the Bulls need better players around Gordon. Not help out the plateaued lot by getting rid of him.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 4:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

so they should get players to make BG better
and not get a player who makes his teammates better?  Is that really your argument?

And as for being better in a different system, I agree.  I think BG would flourish in Phoenix or GS like a lot of players might if BG didn't have to worry about set plays or taking the occasional bad shot.  The bulls system is very tightly regimented and BG would benefit from more freedom.

Goodbye Viktor, and Godspeed.

by bullshooter on Feb 12, 2008 4:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't buy into 'making teammates better'
in the first place, for the most part. Perhaps making them open, but not better.

Gordon will be the same. If he has better teammates, the team will be better. If they replace Gordon with someone worse, than the team will be worse.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 4:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Thank god you're not ScottieCartwright
I was running out of expletives.
Are you saying he has to be on a team that doesn't care about defense?
No, not at all.  It would probably be better for Ben if he did play for a team that cares very little about defense.  Since there are so few teams that play this style one must consider as many potential destinations as possible.  What I am saying is that Gordon needs lots of help around him to minimize the ability neutralize a single player that can detract significant output on both offense and defense.

For example, if Ben Gordon turns it over is there any expectation that he will hustle to the other end and make the stop?  Does he have that fire that must be ignited by defeat or the chance of defeat?  If you cross(not the dribbling move) Ben Gordon will he make you pay for it?

Eventually the officials will respect his drives if he flails the correct way.
I don't bet on spectator sports, but I think the NBA will increase focus with rules reviews on how offensive players initiate contact as a method of free throw begging.  They did this last season.  They talked about it again in preseason rule walk throughs with each team.  Extra flail, falls, or another season in front of the officials won't be worth a numbers disadvantage running the other way.
And I have no idea what you mean: "Gordon has been able to placate many of his known deficiencies by scoring more points and benefiting from exceeding expectations of the players around him.  Once those other players plateaued, almost all of Ben Gordon's negatives started to float on the surface."
It means that the players around Ben Gordon are not playing at the level they were in previous seasons.  Those players were most effective on the defensive end where Ben's struggles are the most evident.  As they have lapsed to arrive at a lower defensive output, Ben has made attempts to shift by increasing his offensive production by trying to get to the free throw line more often.  If he gets calls, great, but when he does not it's 4 on 5 in transition.

by NBA Observer on Feb 12, 2008 5:06 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I have to agree with Matt on this.
Go figure!

I don't think it's a worse defensive team he needs, but a better offensive team.

A team that plays as good or better team defense as the Bulls will help cover up Gordon's mistakes/poor play (like the Bulls for the most part). However, if that team is also a better offensive team than the Bulls (not hard) and has a single, better offensive player than any of the Bulls, Gordon's "one-dimensionality" would also be somewhat covered up.

Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 5:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hence...
...the better players around Gordon theory. Don't do it to make Gordon better (as someone said), do it because Gordon's a good player and putting players better than him on the team will make the team better. (as matt said)

It's kind of like the Celtics and Pierce (Gordon isn't Pierce of course). You don't get Garnett to make Pierce happy. You get Garnett because you're getting Kevin fucking Garnett.

Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 5:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

trying to follow you
Are you saying that Chicago needs to bring in an offensive player that exceeds Ben Gordon in order to make Gordon's offensive game better as well?

by NBA Observer on Feb 12, 2008 5:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

No you get or develop better players
and keep your players that are already good so that you're a better team.  It's not a difficult concept.

by Scotter on Feb 12, 2008 5:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sarcastic ass?
I really hope that's what you're being.
Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 5:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i agree
with you about the other players on the bulls not pulling their weight, and how that has shed a negative light on ben's inabilities.  it sounds like you have your mind made up on ben, so whatever i say isnt going to make a difference, just like anything you say isnt going to change my mind. but... to sum it up simply:
the biggest reason why i like bg is his desire to improve his game.  you cant put a price on that, he is never satisfied, he wants to dominate and is willing to put in the time.  I know it doesnt sound like a whole lot, but that is the mark of a winner, someone you want on your team.  he isnt scared to have the ball at the end, even though he can struggle with his handle, he is fearless, he wants the ball, he wants the shot.  when he improves his ball handling (something that should improve with practice, which he does a lot of) he will be able to penetrate easier and get more foul shots.  he should get more foul shots already, but for whatever reason, bulls guards dont get any calls.  and you have to remember that bg is already a lights out shooter, and again, as more time goes by, he should be even deadlier.  there is no doubt he needs help out there, but he can do a lot of different things offensively, and he is 25 in april, so, in my opinion, we havent seen the best ben gordon yet, thats why you should want to keep him.  no, gordon cant do it by himself, but his scoring ability is something the bulls need.  if he can improve his ball handling and ability to get fouled and sent to the line, his up-side is truly great.  
like i said before, i agree with what you have to say almost all of the time, but obviously we disagree about where bg can take his game.  he is a gym rat, so improvement is never out of the question with a guy who works hard day in, day out.

by Conor on Feb 12, 2008 5:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

that post
was for you, observer... i am a slow typer

by Conor on Feb 12, 2008 5:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

a reaction
I like the gym rat stuff as well.  It helps me think more highly of Gilbert Arenas when I read about him taking 1,000 shots AFTER practice.  However, no amount of time in the gym working on your game can come close to how much time and effort is employed together with your team.  Being a gym rat working on your game is obviously one way of saying I want to make myself better in areas where my team needs me to be better.  But this must translate to the NBA floor.

Presumption 1: Ben Gordon is a lights out shooter.
Fact: He's not.  No idea what the consensus is for "lights out shooter", but I would say 47% from field is a starting point.  Ben's best FG% was 46% last season.  Over his career he is a 43% shooter.  He's shooting 42.4% this season.

I am not sold on Ben Gordon playing elsewhere.  I just think it is best for Ben Gordon and will yield the most suitable returns for Chicago.  I am always open to persuasion.  When someone is right and I am wrong I don't take any issue in conceding.

by NBA Observer on Feb 12, 2008 5:37 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He'll likely end up
shooting over 40% on 3s for the fourth straight season, while taking at least 4 per game every season.  When it comes to shooting that qualifies as lights out.  

by Scotter on Feb 12, 2008 5:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

How convenient...
...where that "lights out" designation lies.
Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 5:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Any way to convince you that was random?
The first names that popped into my head when I thought about lights out shooters that are guards are Tony Parker, Steve Nash, and Richard Hamilton.

I should have checked the stats first.  Collectively their FG% is above 47%.

by NBA Observer on Feb 12, 2008 6:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

handle joke! observe!
Parker isn't even a shooter. 61% jumpers to Gordon's 83% this season, and that's not a fluke. Parker is good at scoring near the basket. I've observed it.

Why put two guys in there who don't shoot a lot of 3s, and use FG%? Of course that's going to come out in favor of your point.

Fire Boylan!

by hscs on Feb 12, 2008 6:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

oh no question
those guys are better shooters than gordon...dont forget my fav ray allen...but you have to remember those guys have been in the league a little longer than bg, and i think by the time ben hits 28 he will be a better shooter than most in the league.  i know this is purely speculation, but if he keeps improving, there is no reason to think he cant lead the league in 3 pt fg %.  so we will see

by Conor on Feb 13, 2008 12:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Then check out Deron Williams and his
adjusted +-.  Has to be the worst defender in the league.  Right?  Plus/Minus shouldn't be taken out of context.  I can't believe I have to be the guy tearing apart +-.

by Scotter on Feb 12, 2008 3:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Let's make a deal
We all of these sabremetrics or none of them because I can go bring in the wages of wins and say Rajon Rondo will win 5 consecutive MVP awards too.

In short, bake me a cake and let me taste it, but don't try and throw it in my face.

by NBA Observer on Feb 12, 2008 4:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

or just use your brain too
except for WoW, which everyone knows sucks.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 4:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with your main thesis.
"In short, he's still the best offensive player on the team and the guy you should want taking shots."

I concur. I'd guess that Paxson would also concur. Gordon is undoubtedly the best offensive player on a very poor offensive squad.  

However, in my estimation, your fine statistical analysis hasn't answered the primary questions facing the Bulls' organization. Gordon's talent vis-a-vis his teammates isn't in doubt, but his talent vis-a-vis the rest of the league is. How good is Gordon on an absolute basis? Is he worth a max contract? Is he worth the sort of money he appears to be demanding?

Gordon is good player, but I don't think there is any evidence that he is developing into a dominant player who can carry a team to the title. If he isn't that sort of player, can the Bulls' afford to expend massive amounts of money to retain him? Or are they better off trading him before he leaves as a free agent?  
 

LSU 38 OHIO STATE 24 - LSU IS THE NATIONAL CHAMPION AND I AM THE KING OF BOURBON STREET!!

by 1958ChiTown on Feb 12, 2008 1:43 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

since when
do we start comparing the Bulls players talent against everyone else in the league at that same position?  If that's the case, NOBODY in our starting lineup or bench would measure up.  How good is Nocioni on an absolute basis? (he sucks)  Is he worth even the contract that he got? (hell no).

You can't start comparing players on your team to players on other teams because the situations, wants, and needs are completely different for everyone.

I don't think anyone expects/expected BG to be a "dominant player who can carry a team to the title"...again, NONE of the Bulls players are.  Just put up decent enough numbers that help your team win games.

In short (no pun intended) the Bulls will be completely screwed if they trade him or let him walk, without getting something comparable or better in return.  I'm tired of this team letting their top scorers walk away/getting rid of them for nothing.

by ScottieCartwright on Feb 12, 2008 1:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It's absolutely necessary to
compare a player to the remainder of the league when he is demanding an extremely large contract.  You can either invest your limited financial resources in that player or invest them elsewhere (namely, in other available players throughout the league). If Ben Gordon is requesting a contract that monopolizes the financial resouces of the Bulls, limits their fiscal flexibility, limits their ability to accomodate other necessary pieces of a championship team, and isn't a dominant player who can lead them to a title, the Bulls would be moronic to yield to his demands. The cost would outweigh the benefits.

Your last sentence makes little sense to me. Part of the reason they would trade him now is to prevent him from leaving without compensation as a free agent.  

LSU 38 OHIO STATE 24 - LSU IS THE NATIONAL CHAMPION AND I AM THE KING OF BOURBON STREET!!

by 1958ChiTown on Feb 12, 2008 2:06 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

on the one hand
I think you can possibly keep an eye on what other teams pay their comparable players (e.g. Sac and Kevin Martin) but on the other hand, YOU pay YOUR guy what he means to YOUR team and YOUR situation.  If you constantly look at what other teams do, then everyone would be overpaid (e.g. Noce).

For example, at the MOST, Nocioni should've gotten a $30 million dollar deal.  But because Paxson was caught looking at what other teams (Memphis) was going to overpay for Noce, he overpaid himself.

So yes, sometimes it is good to see what other people are making but you can't base paying your players strictly off of that info.

And as far as my last sentence...it seems like you did understand it because that's what I was saying.  Here is what I meant in a more clear way:  Don't trade Gordon unless you get someone who is comparable in talent and/or points in return.

Don't NOT sign him and let him walk away for completely nothing.

by ScottieCartwright on Feb 12, 2008 2:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

it's tough to define 'market value'
If Gordon (somehow) goes out and gets a $12m-per offer sheet, technically that's his value around the league. But it's not the best system since it just takes one Billy King to screw with everthing. Or, like you brought up, Chris Wallace's courtship of Nocioni driving up that price.

Say that Gordon does get such an offer and the Bulls  just let him go. Fine, so we're not overpaying Gordon. What then? The Bulls are still over the cap, and not only have to replace Gordon's offense but also remember that they were a shitty offensive team even with him.

I can see some kind of drawn-out situation like what the Cavs had with Varejao. Although unlike him, Gordon's qualifying offer is quite the sum, so he's more likely to take it.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 2:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm fairly certain that most people
criticize Paxson because he wasn't patient enough to let the league set the market value for Noc, instead opting to preemptively pay Noc an amount that far exceeded what other teams were willing to pay.

I agree that we shouldn't trade Gordon for less than equal value.  

LSU 38 OHIO STATE 24 - LSU IS THE NATIONAL CHAMPION AND I AM THE KING OF BOURBON STREET!!

by 1958ChiTown on Feb 12, 2008 2:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Let me also say that your
"YOU pay YOUR guy what he means to YOUR team and YOUR situation" matra is precisely what led to the Nocioni contract situation.  Rather than paying him based on his objective level of skill, Paxson rewarded him for his perceived idiosyncratic value to the Bulls.

A player should be paid based on his skill. A player's skill doesn't depend upon the jersey he wears. In certain limited cirumstances, a player might have some unique synergistic interaction with teammates that could warrant a premium, but I doubt it justifies substantial deviations from skill-based market value.

LSU 38 OHIO STATE 24 - LSU IS THE NATIONAL CHAMPION AND I AM THE KING OF BOURBON STREET!!

by 1958ChiTown on Feb 12, 2008 2:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i disagree
Paxson paid Nocioni to keep the Grizzlies from taking him...I doubt Paxson and anyone else on the face of the earth (other than Grizzlies GM at the time, Wallace) thought Noce was worth that much.  And his skill level definitely doesn't speak to the amount that he got.

To me, it looked like a case of completely over-valuing your player...it wasn't based on perceived value or skill level.

I don't know...looking at the team salaries (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/chicago.htm) almost everyone looks over-paid based on this current season  :)

by ScottieCartwright on Feb 12, 2008 2:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

no doubt ben
was aking for a lot of money, too much if you ask me, but at the same time, who are we kidding???  nba players all have a certain amount of money in their head they think are worth.  lets see how much money teams are willing to offer bg this summer, and then we can debate whether he is worth it or not.  is bg the answer to all the bulls problems, no, but he is a great player, and hopefully(fingers crossed) he will understand that he could possibly become one of the best sixth men to ever play.  i dont care if bg starts games, as long as he is finishing

by Conor on Feb 12, 2008 2:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He's worth what Paxson
was willing to pay him.  Kevin Martin got 5 years 55 million, and I wouldn't go higher than that.  I addressed where he fit in the scheme of things this summer, and my opinion hasn't changed.  He's at least a top 15 shooting guard.

by Scotter on Feb 12, 2008 3:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That's a good point,
and though it may seem obvious, it's a point that a lot of people miss.  The dollar value of something, anything--be it house, stock or NBA player--is set by the bid...not the offer.  You may think your house is worth a million bucks, Gordon may see himself as worth a $12 million contract...but until someone steps up and bids that amount, it ain't and he ain't.  

The Bulls are in a position to significantly drive down BG's market value.  And I believe they are already doing just that.  In fact, everything management has done this year could be interpreted as an effort to insert question marks into every aspect of Ben's game...as well as his personality.

Even if he's not in the Bulls future plans, they still don't want to have to trade him for a high dollar amount, as that would hinder their ability to sign Deng just as much as if they paid the money directly to Gordon.

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 4:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Not sure that's a good strategy.
So I question your speculation. Insulting a guy by intentionally driving down his market price is one of those rare factors that can drive a player to go somewhere else for less money.

I don't fathom an actual GM saying, "Let's make this guy out to be a piece of shit, both in basketball abilities and personality, so that we can re-sign him for cheaper."

Do you think before you type?

Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 4:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think that's exactly what's happening.
In their minds, he's already gone.  They just want to save as much money as they can in the deal.
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 4:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

How do they save money?
Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 4:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

By decreasing the dollar value
of the contracts they'll have to take on in the deal in which they trade Gordon away.  
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 4:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That's what I figured you'd say.
And that's pointless. This is the absolute worst of all speculation. F'r realz.
Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 4:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Are you really that naive?
It's not Pleasantville out there.
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 4:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

No.
But explain how getting cheaper, therefore probably worse, players in return for Gordon is a good idea. Like, Gordon has to want to go to a certain team, then that team has to want him, then that team has to have a player the Bulls want and then that player(s) have to have salaries that match-up w/ what Gordon is getting.

Yeah, planning for that about 8 months in advance is beyond ridiculous. Why not just let the player play,  have him drive his value up (winning more games in the process), therefore increasing the market to do  sign-and-trades with?

Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 4:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, I'm glad you have such faith
and confidence in Reinsdorf's business ethics.

Here's another little philosophy nugget:

My advisor in the philosophy department was once asked to teach a course in Business Ethics.

He walked into the room on the first day of class and said, "Business is business."

He then dismissed the class for the term.

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 4:45 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I have a philosophy
of not reading your posts after seeing 'philosophy'.

And in general not getting into shadowy Reinsdorf conspiracy theories. There's a difference between not paying the tax and spearheading the value-crushing of his players. No really, there is.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 4:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

No conspiracy theory.
It's just plain naiveté to believe it doesn't happen.  Where do you draw the line on what you can or can't take at face value?  I draw that line right at Reinsdorf's lips.
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 4:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

there's certainly a subgroup of Bulls fans
who feel that way. They largely intersect with a group called "morons", but not entirely. Be proud to  lock arms with Jay Mariotti, either way.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 4:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

There's that handy pitch.
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 4:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Don't let it be said
that you don't go down.

Uh, fighting.

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 5:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

don't let it be said
that you're not a handjob.

I'd rather be accused of being a moron than having an agenda. Speculating (of course) on me ignoring information not fitting to my argument was was just garbage.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 5:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

and to explain myself
this is the 'ya know what? fuck off, Alec' post.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 5:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well. Gordon turned dow $10 million per year...
His public comments make it seem as if he is expecting significantly more.  Remember, he made it clear he deserves "best player" money. I don't know if an additional $1MM per year will satiate his desire. After all, he CAN make it rain. Make it five on one, come and get some.

There is obviously a disconnect between Ben's perception of his value and the organization's perception of his value.  During a period when the Bulls also have to accomodate Luol Deng, I don't know if they have the luxury of satisfying Gordon's contract demands.

LSU 38 OHIO STATE 24 - LSU IS THE NATIONAL CHAMPION AND I AM THE KING OF BOURBON STREET!!

by 1958ChiTown on Feb 12, 2008 4:53 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

maybe
he actually was expecting a NEGOTIATION process..gee who would've thunk it?

Remember what he said later - "They didn't even negotiate with me. They were like, `This is what it is, take it or leave it' and that was it."

That type of treatment doesn't scream fairness to me.

by ScottieCartwright on Feb 12, 2008 5:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.
I am hesitant (watch for the speculation) that Gordon wouldn't have accepted a five-year deal worth between 55-60 million. Gordon probably went in asking for 65, the Bulls offered 50. Fair enough. But if there's no negotiation from there... Gordon may well over-value himself (I'm sure he does), but I've seen enough players come to their senses after amicable negotiations.
Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 5:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

judging by this week
this should be real fun in the offseason :)

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 5:12 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So the Bulls' didn''t appropriately coddle
his ego?

Are you arguing that this isn't about money, but is instead about mollifying Gordon's ego?

If Gordon thought the monetary offer was fair but refused it because the Bulls didn't express some nebulous appreciation for him by engaging in a negotiation process, then Gordon is a petulant dunce.

If he only wanted a negotiation so he could feel as if he were exerting some power and influence over the situation, then the Bulls should have just started with a lower offer.

I think Gordon truly believes that he is a franchise player who is worth $65MM. But he really isn't, according to any objective measure. So now we are at an impasse.

LSU 38 OHIO STATE 24 - LSU IS THE NATIONAL CHAMPION AND I AM THE KING OF BOURBON STREET!!

by 1958ChiTown on Feb 12, 2008 5:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Today has been a day of many impasses.
Everyone is so on edge waiting for something to happen.
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 5:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

huh?
how did you read my post and take it to the "coddling the ego" argument?  My point was simply this...anyone going into a contract negotiation process expects just that, to friggin negotiate.  You don't expect to be told, this is what we're offering and that's it.

It has nothing to do with ego...if I'm the player and the team tells me that they want to keep me for the long term (which is what Paxson kept spouting off) then at least negotiate that way.  Don't negotiate like I'm some first year player who hasn't done anything.

From the stories that were leaked out, it doesn't sound like any kind of acutal negotiating was done on the Bulls part.

by ScottieCartwright on Feb 13, 2008 10:46 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Don't negotiate like I'm a first year player
I think that's where the $50 mil over 5 years comes in.
Goodbye Viktor, and Godspeed.

by bullshooter on Feb 13, 2008 11:29 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

also remember
that during the extension period you can sign a 5 year deal. But as a restriced FA they can sign a 6 year deal.  (I think I'm right on this)

So perhaps 6/60 is better to Ben than 5/50.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 5:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

seriously?
And I believe they are already doing just that.

What is management doing to "significantly drive down BG's market value"?

by NBA Observer on Feb 12, 2008 4:11 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

The first thing that comes to mind
is that they make him come off the bench...and not just recently, as Thabo has begun to emerge, but months ago, when there was really no good reason for it.  

The allowed speculation about the extent of his wrist injury to linger.  How many times does Norm have to shrug and roll his eyes about it to get the point across?  

They harp on his poor decision-making on offense and his inability to slow down opposing SG's on defense.  

They talk about how he hurts Hinrich's offensive production, even going so far as to blame Gordon for Hinrich wearing out.  

And when they finally get around to lauding his offense, they put it in context of ,"When Ben gets on a hot streak...."

Finally, no player (other than Ben Wallace) has suffered more in the arena of public opinion this year than Ben Gordon.  Team management has had ample opportunity to stand up for him, but instead have mutely acquiesced to his constant public bashing.  

"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 4:31 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

who is they??
point #1:  Benching Gordon- Boylan's decision to switch things while newly named Interim Head Coach

point #2:  Wrist Injury - So now Paxson I guess goes up to Boylan and convinces him to sit out.  Do you think Paxson has the balls to try and pull this??

point #3:  Media specualtion about wrist injury - So now it's the media against Gordon just to prove that Gordon is soft and will hoepfully come at a cheaper price??

point #4:  Hinrich bashing - Media asked question whats the benefit of playing with Thabo vs. Gordon?  He answers that he doesn't have to guard big SG and can focus on offense.  

This seems like a lot of people all looking out for the Bulls best interest in order to save some $$.  Meanwhile, Pax, Boylan ad certainly Gordon's job are at risk and they all seem to focus on bringing Ben down in the media??  Seems a little far fetched to me...

I vote for Thomas to play, play more and play regularly.-Sam Smith

by tyrus4prez on Feb 12, 2008 4:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Do you recall his ankle sprain
in the preseason?  Wallace had one too.  Vets vote maybe?

In all seriousness, Skiles was harping all preseason about getting the starters on the floor together before they opened the season.  It was obvious what he was reacting to - the previous three seasons of slow starts.  But more so, he needed to SEE where his starters were in terms of playing together.

I have no way of determining if Gordon's ankle was poor, bad, or able to play, but his public comments then were to stay out of games, but still participate in shoot-arounds and limited practices.

We've learned many things in the middle of this season that should cause us to go back and review what we had previously concluded.  The fact that Skiles basically asked Reinsdorf to fire him to benefit the team, according to Reinsdorf, is a big mystery to me.

If you haven't already, read Keith Glass' book.  You'll learn some more about Skiles, albeit from his agent.

by NBA Observer on Feb 12, 2008 5:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

As I say, the team
can either stand up or not stand up for a player.  Is it your opinion that the team has taken every opportunity to present Gordon in the best light possible?  If you believe that, then we'll just have to agree to disagree.
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 4:56 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

sorry, prez, supposed to link to you
"No, no. Stop talking to me. Someone might notice," Paxson squeaked.

by alec on Feb 12, 2008 4:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

its all good
I just dont buy this conspiracy that Gordon isn't playing because of his contract situation and/or managemnent is convincing him or the trainer to sit.  Gordon sitting is in fact hurting his chances of earning that max contract.  I do believe that he does over-value himself and that he probably realizes made a bad decision but will never admit it.  Maybe he just really doesn't want to be here considering that management seems not know what to do with him.  
This team has never really backed up anyone of thier own.  Skiles was on the verge of getting fired and the one thing that killed me was the fact that he never gave any of his players any credit.  He never backed any of them up with the refs.  He was too hard nosed and players need to see that the coach has thier back, or he wiill lose them.  Exactly what happend.
I do not buy into any of these 'conspiracies" and just want Gordon to get healthy and get this thing straight
I vote for Thomas to play, play more and play regularly.-Sam Smith

by tyrus4prez on Feb 12, 2008 7:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

They have publicly stood up for two players.
Ben Wallace and Adrian Griffin. Maybe Duhon and Nocioni.

They haven't "stood up" for Hinrich or Deng starting off poorly. They didn't stand up for Noah. They certainly haven't gone out of their way to make Thomas or Thabo feel better in the public eye.

I think it's an organizational thing to be mum and glum on players who aren't uber-tryers.

Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Feb 12, 2008 5:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Why is this an argument?
He is averaging 35 minutes per game and his numbers have gone up when he has started coming off of the bench.  At most Vinnie Johnson averaged 29 minutes per game for a season so even acknowledging the camparison of the two is ridiculous.  

If the Bulls were to sign him, which I assume they will, he will be getting paid for starter's minutes, for a starter's role, and for a starter's recognition.  

We all know Manu Ginobilli could have been starting on about any team in the league, but he wasn't and that was his role.

by Kemp on Feb 12, 2008 4:57 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Sam sez
I don't have a good answer:
I don't see Ben getting a major offer anywhere, or anywhere close to what he turned down with the Bulls. Teams are spending less. Few used their full exceptions last summer. The teams with cap room basically are bottom feeders and unlikely to spend big money on a player used as a sixth man. But Ben is valuable and an asset. The thinking is he doesn't sign, plays it out as an unrestricted free agent after next season and leaves. I think given the way this season has gone they end up moving him this summer if they can find some sort of reasonable package.

Matt Harpring, here we come.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Feb 12, 2008 7:20 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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